This is a continuation thread for comments and information about the Georgia-Russia conflict.
The situation as of this time and date is one literally hovering on the precipice of a Russian campaign of extermination versus democratic Georgia. What actions the outside world will take, and what if any prudence will be shown by Russia, will become clear very very shortly.
The Georgians are still fully in the right, but history is filled with righteous causes that are ground under the boot-heel. May this not be one more...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
48 comments:
Here we go, the Russians are advancing into coastal and central Georgia.
The AP, via Breitbart
and details from Reuters are just starting.
Reuters, fragmentary report as of now
It is just about put-up-or-shut-up time for Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S.A.
Well any material support will be difficult to get in, now.
KFI 640 AM is reporting the Russians (I keep wanting to type "Soviets") have moved out of Abkhazia, and taken a Georgian military base. in the west. Fox news is reporting Tblisi was bombed. Bill Handel the KFI Morning guy is equating this with Hungary 1956, as are others at NRO.
Others are equating it with the marchinto the Sudetenland.
So what really can the US do? not much militarily, and I don't think we could get them a ship fullof ammo and antiaircraft systems inside of 48 hours, can we? The Euroweenies will cave.
The American Left is absolutely Silent on this issue, so far. I guess they are more anti-American than anti-war.
http://tigerhawk.blogspot.com/2008/08/true-colors-wheres-anti-war-movement-on.html
(I believe he meant Russo-Georgian War)
Itwill be interesting to see what the news loks like when I get home from my day of driving.
Scott
@Karl, maybe the American Left is silent in a wait-and-see (rather than shoot from the hip) attitude in the wake of a situation created by either the American Right or the totality of American politics:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/11/MNB3128JJH.DTL
@mr bill
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on this one *this far*: Some parts of the American Left are appalled at seeing the possibility of the Color Revolutions rolled back by force; Some parts of the American Left are past their limit for intervention in *any* more war situations; Some parts of the American Left believe this is all a conspiracy to help get McCain elected.
But none that I have seen (and I looked, albeit less than thoroughly) have started with the firm legal basis of Georgian territorial integrity and counseled any meaningful action, whichever combatant they blame.
By all means, if you have one to set me straight on that, please do post it.
The Times (UK) has reported the city of Gori in the Georgian heartland has been overrun:
TimesOnline Article
and just in case you aren't confused enough yet, Russia claims to have *not* taken Gori. Reuters report:
Georgia Claims...
FOXNews uses the term "confirms" in their report that Gori has fallen:
FOXNews version
...looks like Reuters got lied to by a partisan stringer. again. although that usually is The AP's specialty. ((shrug))
Will this be another day that will go down in infamy?
Fame or infamy, one way or the other. So yes, Marie, may as well open a big fresh page of the diary for this one.
What is happening doesn't say much for man's nobility and speaks volumes about man's politics...
What a sad, sad day, letting an ally be overrun. Are there insufficient gonads among all the countries of the world to stand up to Russia?
It would seem so. Ostriches are getting very strong competition.
@LDG
Some parts of the American Left are past their limit for intervention in *any* more war situations
Is that just a way that a part of the American Left is thinking, or is there substance behind their thought? Or is there no truth to the idea that we're stretched close to our limit in terms of personnel fatigue & materiels?
I can understand that a political body's inaction or silence could be interpreted one way or another, but isn't it possible that logistical reality is contributing to a response side-by-side with political philosophy?
Also, what's your take on the veracity of anything published by the NYT?
The problem I see is that the Russian Leaders and MOST of Russian citizenry really doesnt care what the rest of the world thinks. The nationalist sentiment, regnant in Russian right now, want's it's empire back and the status of a global Superpower that it had before 1989 (except without the central planning and lack of bling). No one will put down troops to face the Russians, because no one wants to fight someone that will figuratively gouge the eyes and the balls first, who really could care less about civilian and collateral damage in the face of strategic goals, and who's had a history ot poor treatment of prisoners that makes Abu Graib look like the frat house prank it was. There really isnt' a lot even technicaly we could do even if we had the will, because the rapid response forces we do have, aren't big enough to stand up to the forces flooding into the area. And there isn't anyone that can stand up to the Russians, and frankly after a doctrine change in the last few years Im not sure, other than the air and sea elements, we would be all that successfull either. Unfortunately, this is going to be like Hungary, or Chzechoslovakia See:
http://bidinotto.journalspace.com/?entryid=759
NRO's round up.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Njk5YWYwOTk4MDgyODg1M2Y5NGFhYjBlYTlkZTI0MzY=
http://pryce-jones.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGNjZTBkNDVhMTQ4MTE2Nzk4OWM0MTU2MmY2YTE0OTI=
Scott
Now may be a time to ask the question whether the UN and NATO have outlived their usefulness - other than as mutual admiration societies and photo ops.
Yup-- Russians have advanced into coastal and central Georgia-
this one boggles my mind!
The Georgian army is retreating to defend the capital," the Georgian government said in a statement, adding that it was "urgently seeking international intervention to prevent the fall of Georgia."
A top official at the Georgian embassy in Moscow said Russian troops appeared to be moving toward Tbilisi and he alleged Russia’s goal was “complete liquidation” of the Georgian government.
Story continues below ↓
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
advertisement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The U.N. Security Council called an emergency session at Georgia's request for later Monday — the fifth meeting on the subject in as many days.
Fighting also raged Monday around Tskhinvali, the capital of the separatist province of South Ossetia. Swarms of Russian planes launched new raids across Georgia, sending screaming civilians running for cover.
FIFTH FRIGGING MEETING? Is the wording still not correct? Let me write it now! LDG and Marie-- proof read and take out the expletives- gracias
as in jest here--
Luke Air Force Base is ten miles away-- I am about ready to snatch one of those fighter planes and do my own fighting-- on the plane will read-- Watch out- Here comes Susan!!!!!
this vigil from the others is not fast enough!
@marie
Long past time to relegate the UN to the scrapheap imo. In addition to being useless against any member of the "security" council, the Assembly has too many nations with autocratic rulers leading to things like Libya as chair of the UNHRC.
Do I really need to mention the sex abuse scandals within UN "peacekeeping" missions? Oil for food? (I found lots of this with a simple google search, and from sites like the WaPo, BBC, and ABC News -- outlets noted for their right-leaning conservatism /sarcasm)
How about: this one?
The structure and membership of the UN precludes it from being useful for anything. It may have had a role before international communication became so fast, cheap and easy, but there isn't really any more.
I bet people who pay more attention than I do realized this long before I did.
Marie--
your ostriches comment is a prize winner!
May you be blessed for the rest of your days because of your quick wit!
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
@All
Forgive my absence for a bit, was called away for something. I'll try to catch up...
@mr bill
re: the limits -- I'll say that there are strains on a significant portion of the U.S. Army Brigades, far less on the USMC, and damn near no strain on USAF and USN formations. The worst strains on the USArmy formations in the rotation right now is actually material replacement needs, but most of those issues occur in the already deployed ToE kits in use in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I read all of that as the usual loss of capability that happens when you take line formations and use them as occupation troops for any extended period. They get back to what they do best (warfighting preparation), they regain capability fairly fast given material reequippage.
re: inaction -- nothing I said above makes a bit of difference if there is no will to pay blood and treasure for a cause. If that will is gone, then yes there is a "real possibilty" that Americans of any political stripe have lost the willingness to further exertion. If they believe the well is empty, even non-partisans will act on that belief. (It is why the defining method of opposing the Iraq War was defeatist propaganda; If you can convince people the well is empty, they will act on that belief.)
re: the veracity of anything published by the NYT -- Entirely case-by-case basis on World Affairs. I check: their authorship and sourcing; whether it is Op-Ed, a news staffer, or a stringer; and if possible I go check the "full" statement of quotes taken from press releases. They usually pass the tests, again regarding their World Affairs guys. On Domestic Affairs and U.S. Politics I find them to be weaker to the point of partisanship.
By far their best is when they actually print the work of the reporters they send to the place the story is happening in the world. Their worst is the even-further-filtered material they pass on to the International Herald Tribune for publication worldwide.
@Marie
re: whether the UN and NATO have outlived their usefulness -- I'd say NATO just got a shot in the arm as far as justification of existance. Whether the Western European members are as motivated as the Eastern European members right now is still in doubt. The UN, well... I'm a member of the John Bolton UN Opinion Society so I'm not one to ask to support the latest version of the Dream of Cooperation.
@Susan
You reap what you sow. The UN Security Council was designed to ensure the authority and freedom-of-action for the 5 principal WWII Allies, and while that has been undermined by all sort of procedural actions and a recasting of the UN as a whole as a forum of "equals", it remains impossible for the UNSC to do anything that actually censures a Big 5 country or anyone they are willing to protect.
*intentionally wild example*
Even if country "A", one of the Big 5, suddenly hauled off and dropped an atomic bomb on someone in naked aggression, EVEN another Big 5 country, country "A" could veto any resolution and the UNSC could not authorize any collective action.
** That is why the UN Charter terms on self-defense and collective defense vs. aggression still empower the member states to Act on a Violation and seek UNSC acknowledgement after the fact.
@Will
Yes, good sources all. We should do a U.N. thread topic here sometime. I have a lawyer friend who has written a bit on that, and I'll see if he has time to come over here sometime and present his extraordinarily-well-informed opinion on the topic.
As of the latest, it appears that 'fish or cut bait' time for the Russian invaders is Tuesday: French and Finnish Foreign Ministers present their peace plan; Sarkozy will be in Georgia and Russia on a diplomatic shuttle mission of his own making; NATO will seat an extraordinary council session.
Here's the story from AFP
I read this as:
.If Russia is satified that their gran-mal reprisal raid did enough, they will appear at all these presentations with the fait accompli of having begun to disengage.
.If they are not satified, they shall likely do something even more reprehensible to show 'they can't be told what to do'.
to karl aka scott-
The problem I see is that the Russian Leaders and MOST of Russian citizenry really doesnt care what the rest of the world thinks.
From the reading I did this morning to do a catch up starting with Soviet's break-up, Gorbachev, Yeltsin, and moving on, and those, Russia believes they are very strong and don't need any help from much else!
Praise Putin-- and sing to Hitler's stance!
The Belmont Club has an interesting analysis and posits that the georgians will, for the survival of their state, give up the flatlands south of the greater Caucasus, and take up defensive positions along the lesser Caucasus, with Turkey at their back. Also a very nice map.
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2008/08/11/voluntary-amputation/
@karl
We're getting some fairly reliable eyewitness reports that the Georgian pull-back from Gori was an unmanaged withdrawal (note below)... What you see from where you are?
.They broke?
.They ran out of bullets?
.They are pulling a Mongol Flight?
.Several independent reporters are all fools?
There is something that is just not jibing with me on this. Might be something to do with a single formation being reported as Army-wide. Might be something to do with Russian Air Dominance...
But the Georgians, bless their brave souls, were still rolling out Tactical Air and Air Weapons Teams as of late Monday (there), so they haven't been swept from the skies yet.
(notes:
unmanaged withdrawal = rout; loss of operational control; thoughtless panic.
Mongol Flight = a ruse where the middle of a battlegroup seems to flee, only to turn and fight again after disrupting the formation of their pursuers.)
@karl
((headsmack))
I just got time to look at Fernandez's work over at Belmont Club. He's got a very good hypothesis as to why the Georgians have not chosen to stand at Gori.
Thanks for the URL, compadre. This is busy-day for me here, and I won't see what all comes in a timely manner.
***
One more thing for those who haven't followed that link: It has in the posting the Notice from U.S. DoD that the transfer home of the Georgian troops from Iraq will complete today, *and* that the 130 U.S. personel in Georgia as trainers/advisors to the Georgian Army ARE STAYING and are in the mix.
Armed Forces News link
Ok after a determined push, I'm back to current on this. Time to fall behind again.
((snort))
Well, Russia is refusing to talk to the President of Georgia...
News Alert from the AP
...but it seems he's a bit booked up right now...
Yes, I'm linking to ITAR TASS
...and this is a very good thing.
Me smellum BS, but here it is, as breaking news:
The AP: Russian Media says Medvedev orders the end of operations
This *might* be the first part of what I referred to in comment August 11 at 6:16pm re: reaction to pressure.
LDG - from your link:
"Moscow will not talk to Saakashvili, Lavrov said; the best thing for Saakashvili to do "would be to step down." But he said Moscow has not made Saakashvili's departure a condition for ending hostilities."
Here is the crux of the matter. They have always wanted Saakashvili out and the next step will be a puppet government controlled by,who else?
Now will it go for Ukraine next, or start with Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania? Eeny, meeny, miney mo!!
I have no illusions at all about the West doing anything. They caved once at the last NATO meeting and will cave again. The ministers are already starting. Read here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4508590.ece
How's your Russian? What little I was able to decipher (my Russian is not that good) is that NATO is meeting with attendance by a representative of Georgia.
here's the link.
http://www.itar-tass.com/level2.html?NewsID=12952167&PageNum=0
I also read in the English version that the US had blocked a meeting between NATO and Russia - something is better than nothing.
I apologize for posting so many links, but they are good. Here's another one:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDcwY2I4MjhjMTc0Y2Y4ZmJmMWNmNzJlOTA0Y2MxYjg=
Oh, and here is a petition protesting what Russia is doing. They most assuredly don't care, but hey, it's good to vent. The site is under constant attack and goes down, but just as soon it is back up again. I guess the criticism, as ineffectual as it may be, bothers someone.
http://stoprussia.org/
Morning Round up:
Google Maps has a problem
http://jammiewearingfool.blogspot.com/2008/08/hmm-georgia-blank-country-on-google.html
Spengler from th Times of Asia is a bit off:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH13Ag01.html
@Marie
"How's your Russian?" -- hah hah, said the Princess, and she went off to wash her socks...
Serious answer: consider it nil. I had to ask for help.
Your reading appears sufficently close to correct. There is a NATO meeting; Georgia is in attendance with 2 representatives: Minister of Defense and Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs; There is much media attention to the Georgians, who are providing the journalists with material.
There is no report of any NATO-Russia Consultive Meeting mentioned. Here's NATO's comment on the full North Atlantic Council (NAC = NATO) in session:
NATO Council discussion
That's Victor Davis Hanson over at that NRO link. A very very fine opinionist. Here's (IMO) his best quote from that link:
"Indeed, tired of European lectures, the Russians are now telling the world that soft power is, well, soft. Moscow doesn’t give a damn about the United Nations, the European Union, the World Court at the Hague, or any finger-pointing moralist from Geneva or London. Did anyone in Paris miss any sleep over the rubble of Grozny?"
...and Marie, don't mind about links. So long as they are relevent, post away.
@karl
Google Maps issue is nothing sinister, well nothing new. Been dealing with that "blank" issue for a long time.
Spengler has demonstrated an old axiom (and one I try desperately to avoid): "It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt". That column was sufficently wrong on matters of fact that his perhaps considerable premise should also be ignored.
moving right along...
Karl, I think you were being kind when you said that Spengler was "a bit off" -- perhaps a bit off his rocker would have been more appropriate.
LDG: Here's the other link I referred to earlier, about the US blocking a meeting of NATO-Russian Council.
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=12951498&PageNum=0
Bill: I've also long thought that the UN has outlived it's usefulness .
NATO? We'll see. Depends on whether or not it stands firm.
@Marie
re: U.S. blocked NATO-Russia Consultation. Ok, that does fit better. Good for the Yanks.
@All
Regarding the reports "yes they did / no we didn't" as to Russia targeting the BTC pipeline...
Fifty craters, some within a 100 meters of the pipeline
That's some shooting there, Cowboy. Back to remedial Missile School for you.
Good take on the "siloviki" LDG mentioned and the Georgian invasion.
>> This story has interesting information and basically
>> scuttles claims
>> that
>> Ossetia has "Ossetian" leadership with true
>> Ossetian interests at heart:
>>
>> http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/1189525.html
>>
More on Pipeline matters:
AFP on pipeline shutdowns
and this citation of a Dow Jones item (commercial feed, so no link, sorry):
12:07 EDT: theflyonthewall.com: Russian forces order Kulevi oil terminal evacuation-Dow Jones
http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Aug12/0,4670,GeorgiaRussia,00.html
http://www.transatlanticpolitics.com/2008/08/12/russia-has-stopped-its-invasion-in-georgia-but-at-what-price/
Seems to be callign a cease fire, and a pause,but bombings continue. Russia is calling for Shakashvilli to step down and for Georgia to De-Militarize. Ouch.
Evening Rally in Tbilisi, mass show of support. President Saakashvili calls on Georgian Parliament to break ties with the CIS.
APTN Direct, via FOXNews Urgent Queue
I've rolled forward a new thread topic: "The George Washington Manuever"
so let's move the comments on this topic over *here*, please
Last link dump on this thread then.
Lessons Learned?
Georgia, Russia agree to peace plan: French leader
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gMdd8JLLbK-2-v3dR8eJql7VdalA
Austin Bay thinks the Diplomatic situation is "dire".
http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1949
However James Pethokoukis sees a couple of silver linings
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/8/12/two-cheers-for-russias-invasion-of-georgia.html
Popular Mechanics discusses the Cyber War
http://www.popularmechanics.com/blogs/technology_news/4277603.html
...And ctor Davis Hansen's analysis.
http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson081208.html
We talk endlessly about “soft” and “hard” power as if humanitarian jawboning, energized by economic incentives or sanctions, is the antithesis to mindless military power. In truth, there is soft power, hard power, and power-power — the latter being the enormous advantages held by energy rich, oil-exporting states. Take away oil and Saudi Arabia would be the world’s rogue state, with its medieval practice of gender apartheid. Take away oil and Ahmadinejad is analogous to a run-of-the-mill central African thug. Take away oil, and Chavez is one of Ronald Reagan’s proverbial tinhorn dictators.
And finally the after action reports are starting to filter in:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/255/story/47631.html
And I thnk with thos links everyone should be up to date.
Scott
Post a Comment