This is a re-presentation of an item I commented into the end of The George Washington Manuever thread. I post it again here because this is *the* key item to understanding the situation at the beginning of the conflict.
**Important**
This is a first-source in open source of the critical timeline events prior to the Georgian offensive (into South Ossetia) portion of the war.
The Kurta Bridge (near the end of the article)
...and this is the first reference to the satellite photos of Russian Armor in motion toward the Roki Tunnel *before* the situation fully developed.
August 17, 2008 3:16 PM
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With the *big* caveat that this is from an official Georgian source:
Transcript of Teleconference
...and yes, to circumvent the massive pro-Russian cyberattacks, it is hosted on blogspot, as are most of the Georgian Government websites for now. Think of them as their "websites in exile"...
Here's one reason this didn't get out earlier. There is an alternative Romanization of the bridge name, "Gufta Bridge", being used by some sources and particularly the Georgian MFA and other of their sites.
The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (website-in-exile)
...obviously, the other reason is that for objective purposes, there needs to be at least one other source of this information...
um, yes, we are looking at you, President G.W. Bush. Your DNI had to have signed off on sending the Georgians the satellite photos.
On the way into friends house this afternoon I was listening to KFI 640 Am again and they have a guy, Brian Suits (That's Captain Brian Suits USAR) and his sunday show, The secret Dark Place. He went over this. in detail. ah.. they do, bu todays broadcast is not ready,
http://www.kfi640.com/pages/podcasting/ Look for Brian Suits on Sunday 8/17
a flat tyre or tire? You got to be kidding!!!!!!!!
wow--
there is much more to this story than what was stated!
How did those satellite pictures come about? hmmmmmmm!!!!!!
Actually, the second car 'had run flat' as well, said the diplomat.
Hey, the lie was working so well, why not use it again, right?
(tyre = Anglo spelling, used most round the world; tire = Yankee spelling)
It was the second Tire went flat too that just killed me, The dioplomat knew right then he was hosed. what problems does giving Saakashvili the sateoite photos make for us?
Scott
the dog ate my homework would have been more credible!
Russians leaving missiles in Georgia?
The U.S. officials told the Times that Russia deployed several SS-21 missile launchers to positions north of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital. That would put the missiles within range of Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, the Times reported on its Web site.
What about the Seige of Tyre? LDG?
xxx
I am listening to we are not prepared for a nuclear attack--not completely- Cham Dallas- Center for Mass Destruction Defense- If a 10 KT nuclear weapon hit on Washington would kill at least 200,000.
He is now showing a model of what the Iranian's are working on- uranium 235- something like this-
dang!
here is what he was talking about-
http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/041508Dallas.pdf
Suprise surpsie, the Russianss are overstating the damge dome to Tshkinvali
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/48860.html
One of the potential fallouts though however, might be . well, just kissing off the space program for a few years. The private sector companies right now because of the Ansaru X-prise birthing them, are themselves a fertile field for space development, but they are still a couple or more years off from taking up the burden of station maintenance.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/russian-aggression-carries-high-cost-for-nasa/
Scott
@karl
re: "what problems does giving Saakashvili the sateoite photos make for us?"
Problems with oh say Russia? nothing not already on the table. But it is damning evidence that the DNI and thus DeptState and DoD knew early enough to have taken action immediately rather than leaving GWB hanging around on a beach volleyball court while the hammer was falling on Georgia.
@Susan
OTR-21 (SS-21) are a bombardment missile, basically a muchly improved SCUD-like (FROG-7)weapon. They throw about a 1/2 ton High Explosive bomb. They aren't super accurate, but good enough for hitting big structures, *and are basically unstoppable* without Theater-level Air Defenses like PAC-3 (or better). In the unlikely case they would have Chemical or Nuclear warheads they are very efficient ways to kill lots of people.
re: the Siege of Tyre -- amusing you would make that association. I don't recall exactly, but I think the ancient pronunciation of the city name was rather different than the modern word for a wheel covering.
re: 10KT killing 200,000 -- sounds possible but high to me. the 13 KT Hiroshima device was almost a direct center hit, air burst, and killed about half that many people, but out of a population and military presence of maybe 300,000. An equally good shot with a 10 KT device over a city of about 600,000 people (like Wash. D.C.) might get that many. Lots of factors involved in making a good guess though, and not for me to be making such.
@karl
re: overstating -- naw, they wouldn't... that would be telling a lie... ((/sarcasm))
Well now, in amongst all the news stories coming in about the Russians still moving *forward* not back, comes this little tidbit.
Guess the siloviki were not getting their cut
...but given my druthers, it would be best all around if they *all* lost their jobs. and their heads.
a Rumor that the Europeans threatened to stop purchases of Russian fuel...
http://frankwarner.typepad.com/free_frank_warner/2008/08/did-europe-thre.html
@karl
for your amusement, a refresher of a comment by me in the "Georgian side of the story" thread:
***
re: Marie's comment about EU "... do nothing."
Likely. so why not dream big?
**AGAIN IN A FANTASY...**
'In Protest of the Russian Invasion of Georgia: The EU has ordered a 7 day suspension of all imports of petroleum products from the Russian Federation and calls upon allied and cooperative states to open, as they will, their national strategic petroleum reserves for the same 7 day period to sale on the world market.'
August 10, 2008 2:57 PM
***
heh.
The latest:
NATO's North Atlanic Council is in session.
Some sort of prisoner exchange has occured. either:
1) it was a 2 for 2 trade (The AP)
2) it was 13 Georgians for 5~6 Russians (NPR Morning Edition)
...or something.
And, the lies about a withdrawal are becoming more transparent. The AP in some reports is promoting the Russian line of "2nd, 3rd tier units are pulling back"...
But eyewitness reporters are seeing activities like *this*.
Looks like this will be another long day.
follow-up on the Poti raid by Russian Forces:
NYT says 21 Georgian Soldiers Captured
Russians also claim to have taken over 60 tanks, "44 in good condition". Now we all know the media is a bit slack about *what a tank is*, but even if those were APC's, it is still sign the Russians are way over the line in their continued activities.
Apparently, "Monday" can be translated into "Friday" in Russian...
That's when they *now* are claiming to be withdrawing.
getting some counts from the field now:
"Nogovistsyn said that 64 Russian soldiers were killed in the fighting and 323 were wounded. Russia previously had said 74 soldiers were killed and 170 were wounded in the conflict.
"Georgian officials have said they lost 160 soldiers and that 300 are missing. Russia claims Georgian losses are much higher.
"Civilian casualties remain unclear. South Ossetian officials on Wednesday said 1,492 civilians in the breakaway province had been killed.
"The investigative committee of the Russian prosecutor general's office on Wednesday confirmed 133 civilian deaths in South Ossetia, but said it could not be sure of a complete figure because many victims had already been buried."
-- FOXNews citing various, incl. The AP.
...we've seen better on the civilian numbers from HRW, of course.
The Georgians are Mocking the Russians. Good for them, World Class snark.
http://www.luoamerican.com/baldilocks/2008/08/to-russia-with.html
ERRATA:
My comment of 17.August at 4:09 pm can now be clarified.
The Kurta Bridge is a highway bridge 2 km north of Tskhinvali.
The Didi Gupta Bridge is 15 km north, far closer to the Roki Tunnel.
sourcing: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program via Johs Hopkins. This is a pdf file.
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