Scarborough Shoal (2)

It isn't over.

It isn't even close to over.

It might get worse.

Grammaticas on China 'Banging the War Drum'.

Key Point:

The odd thing here is that the Philippine navy consists of just one proper ship and that is an ancient US Coast Guard cutter which is hardly a match for China's navy, as this online commentary by "The Comparativist" makes clear.

The Comparativist writes: "I think this is happening because the Philippines is so weak. The Chinese government can beat the war drums all they want, and as loud as they want, and no war is going to happen. It's akin to bullying someone in a wheelchair that you know can't punch back."

...

But there are dangers here too. The president of the Philippines has tweeted this statement this week, making clear that the Philippines believes America will help protect it from any Chinese aggression. So a dispute could lead to a very tense situation.

(original contains several source links)

There is one, and only one, brake on PRChina's ambition in this case, and that is predicated upon something not mentioned above:

It does not matter if the Government of the Philippines believes the U.S.A. will help protect it.

It matters if the Government of the People's Republic of China believes the U.S.A. will help protect the Philippines.

Do they?

Scarborough Shoal

There's a problem down south...

...the Philippines Navy caught eight PRChinese fishing vessels looting taking catch along the Scarborough Shoal area of the South China Sea. They made a boarding and examination, finding full holds of illegally (by everyone else's rules other than the PRC) taken catch, but before arrests and confiscations could be made, two PRC "Observation Vessels" intervened. The resulting standoff has gone on...

More, with analysis, at EagleSpeak.

...and today, some changes happened. A Philippines Coast Guard vessel arrived, allowing the warship to back off a bit, and there are reports of "diplomatic" activities. Yeah, I bet; real diplomatic of the PRC about such matters... They have reportedly sent a third vessel and I'll wager it isn't a parley gig.

Do note the maps in both Eagle1's post and the BBC link... the lines labeled "UNCLOS EEZ"... and the other lines marked "Chinese claims".

very, very distracted

There is a lot to cover going on out there right now, but in one of the unfortunate coincidences of life right now, I'm obliged elsewhere.

But...

Here are some reports and some very good writers you should spend a little time with, while I keep shoveling in the stables. (insert optimistic comment about finding a pony, *here*):

The ICC has opened the trial of two warlords from the 2003 fighting in Ituri, D.R. Congo, on war crimes charges. It is a particularly nasty set of charges, and Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has a very good case.

Also from the Congo, a report to the U.N. about MONUC and cooperating with the FARDC has been leaked... and it is one of those stories that cause one to question if there are any good guys in that fight. There are, but there are some really bad ones on both sides and that's where the problem lies right now.

Richard Fernandez (of Belmont Club reputation) has a superbly insightful piece on how the recent massacre in the southern Philippines came to be, and how it doesn't surprise experienced Philippines-watchers that it happened. There is no more-expert opinion out there on things political in the Philippines than R. Fernandez; he lived what he talks about on that topic.

Lastly, for now, *REMEMBER* 29.November is election day in Honduras... and the Zelaya-insurgents are intent on making a fight of it (and not just in the polling places). Look to La Gringa's Blogicito for first-class English-language reports from in-country as this all happens.

Thanks again, folks, and I'll be back to regular postings as soon as I can. Just need to get a little sleep first...

Philippines Typhoon adds to disaster

Thankfully, it seems to have avoided a direct hit on the Manila metro area, instead brushing by to the north, but given the sheer size of the storm it is likely that secondary flooding will add to the disaster already present.

Officials had feared rain would spark fresh floods in Manila since reservoirs and dams around the capital are full and the sewage system is inundated with mud and rubbish brought by last week's deluge.

"Our relief work slowed down because we placed our troops on standby for possible rescue operations in case of floods," said Lieutenant Colonel Ernesto Torres, spokesman of the national disaster agency.

"But the typhoon was hardly felt here."

If that is all, then wonderful. Rescue/Recovery efforts in the Manila area can go on, and new resources as they arrive can be tasked to the north of Luzon where the latest damage is pretty severe.

*Rumor* has it that the Reagan Carrier Strike Group of the U.S. Navy is likely to be diverted to provide aid now that this storm has swept through. That would be a good thing.

...because this is shaping up to be a bad autumn in Southeast Asia and Oceania.

IED kills three in Philippines

Sadly, the names of the men lost have not yet been made public.

The Philippine government offered its condolences to the families of the slain soldiers and praised them for helping undertake civic projects and secure peace on Jolo, about 590 miles south of Manila, the capital.

The troops were on a public support project building a school.

I'd venture to guess this made the AP because two of the dead were American Seabees, but it is more newsworthy from the point of view of reporting some sophistication to the Abu Sayyaf group's attacks.

If the days of improvised nail-bombs outside cafes has given way to command-detonated anti-vehicle strikes, then a whole new level of force protection is going to be the order of the day, for both the Philippines Military and those American advisors/support elements in the region.

***

Update 3.Oct

Hm... this just came down the wire... and U.S. DOD has nothing on Navy personnel losses...

10/03/2009: DoD Identifies Army Casualty
10/03/2009: DoD Identifies Army Casualty
10/02/2009: Army Establishes Program Executive Office Integration to Support Modernization
10/02/2009: Awards Announced In “Social And Behavioral Dimensions Of National Security, Conflict And Cooperation” Competition
10/01/2009: DoD Identifies Army Casualties
10/01/2009: DoD Identifies Army Casualty
10/01/2009: General Officer Announcement
10/01/2009: General Officer Assignments
10/01/2009: DoD Identifies Army Casualty
09/30/2009: National Guard (In Federal Status) and Reserve Activated as of September 29, 2009
09/30/2009: $555 Million DoD Homeowners Assistance Program Details Announced
09/30/2009: DoD Identifies Marine Casualty

Note: the 10/01/2009 "Army Casualties" is the report of the two operators killed in the Philippines.

Hmm.

h/t to Uncle Jimbo at Blackfive on this one.

Philippines Flooding

There have been many incidents of natural disaster over the last year, and this weblog rarely touches upon them... other sites, more focused on humanitarian relief, do a far better job of promoting awareness.

But this time, the effects are felt as much in the Foreign Policy department as in the Humanitarian Aid section:

Hundreds remained on rooftops, waving and shouting for food, water and warm clothes as floodwaters began to subside in and around Manila on Sunday.

Television images showed several houses and cars being swept by swollen rivers and clusters of people on the roofs of their homes. Army and civilian helicopters were seen dropping food and relief goods.

The weather bureau said Ketsana brought the heaviest rainfall in the country in 40 years. About 410 mm of rain fell in 24 hours on Saturday, twice the amount that drenched the United States during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

This is the kind of event that people blame on their government, which is a bad thing in this case. The Arroyo administration has very limited resources with which to answer the need.

Japan should be there to really help. This is *not* enough.

The Americans should be pitching in as well, but as of today there is *nothing* on the U.S. Embassy to the Philippines web site. Here's hoping that's just an oversight...

Hard fight on Basilan

The Armed Forces of the Philippines went into action against an Abu Sayyaf base camp on Basilan Island yesterday, specifically pursuing Khair Mundus and Furuji Indama, two leaders of the al-Qaeda-linked terrorists. What they got was a nasty closequarters brawl of a battle... 23 soldiers and 20 militants dead...

The army's losses were the highest in a single day's combat for some years.

The fighting was a "slugfest", said Maj Gen Dolorfino. "It was really close-quarter fighting so we couldn't use our artillery," he told AP.

With the understanding that 400 Philippines troops were on the attack against a force of roughly 150 terrs, those kind of losses are an almost Pyrrhic victory. But considering the amount of explosives taken or destroyed, and the fact that the militants are on the run again back into the interior of the island, *maybe* it was worth it.

Hard work, fellows. Keep at it, and plan for better results next time you corner them.

Goodbye, "Cory".

The finest example of her time in the power of faith and liberty to overturn an autocracy...

Former President Corazon Aquino of the Philippines

...has passed away.

May we all remember what she has done.

Eugenio Vagni liberated

Successful mediation by a local politician liberates Eugenio Vagni from captivity.

This is the last of the three ICRC staffers taken hostage ~6 months ago on Jolo Island in the Philippines.

***

Local sources to Reuters are calling this a trade for captured Abu Sayyaf members.

For background on those arrests, please see "Lucky Catch" here at CompHyp on Thursday last.

A Lucky Catch in the Philippines

Some days it is better to be lucky than good (although being both is better still). However it happened, the Armed Forces of the Philippines just got lucky as six suspected bomb-planter got caught trying to pass a checkpoint. The troops at the check point were doing a good job, so that's the good part. Here's the lucky part:

(Lieutenant Colonel Edgard) Arevalo said the arrested relatives included two wives of Muslim Abu Sayyaf rebel commander Albader Parad, who led the kidnapping of three Red Cross workers on January 15.

...

Arevalo said Parad's wives and their four companions were arrested on Tuesday, hours after the bombing in Jolo town, as their motorcycles passed by a marine checkpoint in Tagbak village in Indanan town.

He identified Parad's wives as Rowena "Honey" Aksan and Nursima "Simang" Annudden. The other arrested suspects were Aksan's brother, two wives and a brother of Abu Sayyaf bomb experts.

"All the persons arrested are suspected to provide logistical and service support in terms of vehicle, purchase and delivery of food and similar commodities to their bandit Abu Sayyaf cohorts," Arevalo said.

He added that there was reason to suspect that a mobile phone seized from the group "could be part of the triggering mechanism that set off the bomb that was placed in the motorcycle that exploded" near the church on Tuesday.

Nice catch.

Maybe this will lead to a break in the attempt to rescue Red Cross worker Eugenio Vagni (of Italy), the last of the three ICRC hostages taken by the Abu-Sayyaf group.

***

Clarification:

It seems bombing churches is quite the fad right now in the southern Philippines, so don't mistakenly think this Jolo bombing is the same as this bombing last Sunday. That one was in Cotabato, Mindanao, and the suspected perpetrators are the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

Philippines ICRC hostages: one rescued

The reports rolled in earlier today of the successful rescue of one of the three ICRC staffers held hostage by Abu Sayyaf terrorists on Jolo Island in the Philippines. One other, a Philippine national, was released earlier. The Philippines military and local self-defense militiamen pulled off this rescue in a nasty fight, but they did bring out Mr. Andreas Notter, safe and as sound as one can be after three months in the hands of Abu Sayyaf.

The ICRC has now released a formal statement on his condition, and offered hopes for the safe return of Mr. Eugenio Vangi, the remaining hostage.

In what was perhaps an oversight, the ICRC statement offered no thanks to the Philippine military for the rescue.

perhaps an oversight...

perhaps...

One gets out

One of three hostages held for over two months by the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group on Jolo Island of the Philippines, and the focus of a massive military pursuit that has hounded the band of kidnappers, has been released.

This is a great relief, as the al-Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf have a history of killing hostages. It is also a win for the combined efforts of intercession by the International Committee of the Red Cross / Red Crescent (ICRC), the NGO that the three hostages were a part of, and the Philippines Military, which has used a mixture of measured force and negotiation but not caved in to absurd demands.

May the other two hostages be released or rescued safe... and soon.

Philippines Marines close the box on Abu Sayyaf

Since the kidnapping on January 15th of three workers for the International Committee of the Red Cross / Red Crescent (ICRC) by Abu Sayyaf terrorists, the Armed Forces of the Philippines have been in hot pursuit. But to pursue *anyone* on Jolo Island is no small task given the terrain and lack of accessibility.

Finally, it looks like the Philippines Marines have closed the box and the Abu Sayyaf forces are reduced to trying to break out rather than just keep running.

Here's hoping a rescue chance comes.

Southern Philippines Situation

The situation in the southern regions of the Philippines, where 100+ year old on-again-off-again Moro insurgency has festered, is growing more active.

The Arroyo administration correctly saw no good coming from a negotiated expansion and continuance of the Autonomous Region last August, and fortunately the Supreme Court tossed out the Memorandum of Understanding on constitutional grounds in October.

This all should not come as a great surprise, considering the whole area is considered a "haven for terrorism".

The current plan of action is "DDR"; disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration.

Just one little problem with that concept, and then one fly-in-the-ointment issue to go with it:

. One can't re-integrate a societal element that has *never* been willing to integrate or compromise more than superficially with the nation, and that pretty much sums up the Moro view of relations with the GRP (Government, Republic of the Philippines).

.. The semi-recognized Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has its own radical elements that have returned to terrorism and, worse, the group provides cover and protection for the Abu Sayyaf. Those would be the al-Qaeda want-to-be's that engaged in spates of piracy and kidnapping of foreigners a few years back.

So with that knowledge in hand, here is the current situation:

The international observers have been mostly ineffective, and now Malaysia has pulled out of the observer effort entirely.

The GRP is still trying to find someone and some way to talk with the MILF.

Meanwhile, the forces on the ground in the region are being pressed into counterattacking. Basilan Island is once again the center of the conflagration. Brave work to be done there, and the Philippine Marines are just the fellows to be doing it.