Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The George Washington Manuever

Here is one to ponder:

The Georgian Army seemed to lose cohesion and break contact before the city of Gori, but it also never lost the ability to sortie air assets, and there were no significant captures of Georgian Army formations in the lowlands... if at all (the fight at Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia is still playing out).

Now some excellent observers have reported that it is likely by the time of Monday the 11th local time, the Russians had degraded the Georgian military communications system to the point of failure... if that was the real communications network.

Hm.

There is an interesting precedent, to pick one example from history's full satchel of such moments, where the survival of the Army was far more important than the defense of the vulnerable territory even to the point of conceding the major cities and the capital (for a time).

The retreat from New York. 1776.

The massive operational defeat at Brooklyn was only salvaged by the miraculous withdrawal across the East River...

The overwhelming power of the invader continued to turn defenses (the passage of British Navy vessels into the Hudson above Manhattan), and prepared defenses were either abandoned or near-useless. See a place called Fort Washington then (the Washington Heights of Manhattan today)...

Yet another radical and less-than-parade-ground-organized withdrawal was then made to the Jersey side at the last point secure up the Hudson...

The race was then on across Northern New Jersey, the pursuer unimpeded...

At Brunswick, 'Lord' Stirling and his 1,000 did not exactly "come back from Iraq on USAF C-17's", but re-unite with the main Continental Army they did...

And by December, George Washington and the Continental Army had made it across the Delaware River...

...with enough sting left for the Cause-salvaging Victories at Trenton and Princeton.

Hmmm.

I've got a feeling about something here. Credit where credit is due, the implications are better said by Richard Fernandez ("Wretchard") over at Belmont Club:

wretchard:


Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney, USAF (Ret.) was just on Fox News calling for a NATO No-Fly zone over Georgia.

That would make Russia effectively the loser of the war. May it should be proposed just to get it on the table. That would set Putin’s gizzards churning.


Aug 12, 2008 - 7:30 am


Now why would anyone think that NATO would have the capability to even put such out there, diplomatically speaking...?

Hmmmm.

The American Advisers are staying with the Georgians...

Official U.S. Announcement

I've got rumors of 50+ Russian armored vehicles destroyed by ... a weapon not in the Georgian Army arsenal.

I've got a clear sign that the Russians woke up this morning to a severe reconsideration of their strategic objectives.

If, and I do say *IF*, the Georgians and U.S/NATO forces HAVE caused this reconsideration, well folks, it might just metaphorically be the days after Christmas, 1776 all over again.

109 comments:

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Two shall-we-say-clever fellows on situation and circumstances:

Fredrick W. Kagan SITREP

and

Max Boot on what to be done

fair disclosure -- I differ with both on some particulars, for example: I believe Georgia has already gotten in the legal door first as they have filed with the ICJ claims against Russia; F.W. Kagan's analysis is that Russia has the legalistic advantage and will use it against the Saakashvili government. -- These differences are not enough to declaim either piece on merit.

Karl Reisman said...

Oh man. if that's true, that gives me a warm fuzzy feeling ^__^. I was mulling the map in my head as I drove, and was thinking if they could hold the line at the Little Caucasus ressuply of NATO style materiel through Turkey, and giving the Georgians the best Anti Aircraft Systems made would allow them to survive for some time. For all of the Russian belicosity, I was surpise d at the timidity of the VVS (Airforce), as well as it's rather poor performance for ordinance on target. Maybe that's just me used to the B/W video of targets destroyed with Nintendo precision.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

More, on what stopped the Russians (so far), from a political point of view, from RFE/RL:

Russian Halt Leaves Crucial Questions

Key Points: confirms that NATO has reaffirmed eventual membership for Georgia; Two opinions on Russian goals in the conflict, Gained or Failed.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

More observations on winning or losing in the Russo-Georgia fight:

From the JPost

Key Point: This writer calls it a loss, and justifies that call fairly well.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Trying to track down POW numbers for both sides, but the last released report simply says:

"It is not yet clear how many prisoners-of-war are being held on both sides. The ICRC has visited two wounded Russian pilots held in Georgia and is trying to visit all the POWs."

--quoting the BBC from last night. Civilan Emergency Hits Georgia

This is valuable info, folks. No large POW captures by the Russians in particular is meaningful (good or bad, though?).

Marie said...

All I can say is that your analysis was kind of a cautious shot in the arm this morning. I sincerely hope it is a sign, as I would hate to think that the rest of the world did what most are saying... just stood by and let a "little" country flounder.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Some disturbing reports still coming in. Looks like the definition of truce is still a user-specific definition. Things might settle, might not...

Georgia Says Truce Broken...

If this is not just last-minute position-claiming and it does break down, that will be the test of my hypothesis: The Georgians will have to demonstrate they can "re-cross the Delaware" and inflict some real punishment on the Russians, and then dance back out of immediate reach. If I'm right, they will be able to do so.

@Marie

As of this moment, I think I can safely say they are not being abandoned. The trick will be to be able to help them save themselves, rather than just providing them the cold comfort of not dying alone.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

One more report that implies bad things for any truce.

Steve Harrigan, FOXNews, is there with a team. This from the Urgent News Queue:

"PER HARRIGAN NOW IN TBILISI:
A lot of debate about Russian tanks.
I can tell you 50 Russian Armored Vehicles (bmp's) are in Gori. We saw them.
Tanks have tracks and giant turrets. So they are armored personnel carriers, not tanks."

This is where the techniques the *good* reporters perfected covering Iraq will pay off. Solid, first-person reporting. Wish we had more like him.

Marie said...

I saw Harrigan's report. He's very good. Have seen him operate in other parts of the world. He gets right to where the action is and keeps reporting even with shells exploding around him.

I also heard a British reporter in Tbilisi saying that Georgians are beginning to grumble against their president. How much of that is true, I don't know.

As for the Russian cease-fire, that's debatable. From reports, they are still forging ahead. One man's cease-fire is another man's starting pistol.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Marie

As always, re: that UK reporter, it matters which paper/service he is fronting for. But it wouldn't surprise me if he could drum up some grumblers. Things are not good.

Another source on truce violations is beginning to come in. The AP actually ran a quote that one of their reporters saw a formation of Russians cross the line and go deeper into heartland Georgia. Will try to confirm that when the proper story hits the wire.

***
And now for the "that takes some serious balls" quote of the day:

I'd like to have seen him give that speech in Nemuro

...to the expellees and their descendents, with the Russian-occupied Northern Territories in sight on the horizon behind him.

We'd have to throw him out of the country just to save him from the vengeful masses.

(insert suitable profanity here)

Marie said...

I read that statement by the Russian and thought, wow, they certainly have "gumption" (another word came to mind first). Do they really expect support from Japan, or is this another warning?

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Marie

"Do they really expect support from Japan, or is this another warning?"

Well the gaimushou (Japan's Foreign Ministry)'s Russian division is notoriously feeble, but we've stood up beside the other G-7 FMs to condemn the attacks so far.

So I'll just file this under the oxymoron "Russian Diplomat" and go on.

***
It is pretty clear now with multiple wire service reports saying the Russians are advancing toward Tbilisi again that the "truce" was a sham. There is one report (The AP's) saying the Georgians that were to have pulled out of Kodori Gorge were "disarmed" by the Russians. That gets a pretty low information-confidence rating from me, though.

I also have reason to believe the next 6~12 hours of this is going to be the deciding event(s). -no I don't know. consider me to be just guessing.-

L.Douglas Garrett said...

FLASH

THE URGENT QUEUE...
President To Make Statement on Georgia by Noon
Wednesday, Aug. 13 2008
Per Dana Perino
Morning gaggle cancelled
Secretaries Gates and Rice with him

L.Douglas Garrett said...

time of that FLASH 9:38 am Eastern.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

FOLLOW ON

Per White House Press Secretary Dana Perino -
President Bush did speak by phone this morning to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Perino did not however have a read out for us, saying president Bush has been in briefings all morning.

Marie said...

testing:
Ukraine may be next

If this doesn't work, I will leave things as they are and not try again.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Marie

works fine! Thanks for trying it.

***
2ND FOLLOW ON

Bush Statement will be at 11 am in Rose Garden.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Bush statement included US (humanitarian) aid immediately to Georgia, delivered by "USAF C-17's" and Naval Forces...

...and he staked out a long line of "Russia said they would do this" items, IMO to be able to hold their feet to the fire if anything goes wrong.

It is a B+ level move all and all, but it does pretty much set up a Berlin Airlift situation.

***
@karl

Compadre, I *know* it's not your specialty, but now that this is public, we got any movements or retasking of Expeditionary Air Wings yet?

Marie said...

It seems to me that there is very little to be done. Between a rock and a hard place with poor Georgia squeezed in between. The EU is looking out for its own interests, and we are stretched too thin.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Marie

re: "stretched" -- I put this out on another thread for mr. bill in response to a question, but there is plenty of capacity in American Air Force and Naval capabilities. Given the logistical situation, boots on the ground Army forces would have to be very limited in any circumstances without a widening of the theater of operations. However, a few thousand *of the right kind* of troops would be a very fine addition to the force mix right now.

I am watching with great interest what the Annapolis Canoe Club is doing on this in particular. Operating in the Black Sea is one of those things mostly just studied on paper...

..and the USAF finally gets to earn their paychecks the old fashioned way for the first time in about 5 years.

However: What the other NATO allies do, and what Ukraine does, now that the Americans are testing the water, that is going to be pivotal in the big picture. If this is a Yankee effort only, it's going to be very very hard.

Marie said...

I can just hear the Bush bashers idling their engines, but I for one respect that he kept his word (in a fashion) to an ally. The Kumbaya-singing crowd will have a "fiesta" with this one.

Karl Reisman said...

I'll see what I can dig up.

In the mean time I did find this:
Massive US Naval Armada Heads For Iran
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9799

http://www.metimes.com/Security/2008/08/11/analysis_is_war_in_the_gulf_air/ca8a/

Maybe th Roosevelt group is jsut trying to get closer withoug having to enter the Black Sea?

As for the Air Force. most of their websites are useless corporate sites filled with "human Interst Puff Pieces" about Latina Airman So-and-so from Snake Navel, Idaho's first Deployment to afghanistan. Not all that usefull.

However I did find a few PDF's and white papers for all of your educational needs:

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/sab/sabaef2.pdf

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/712294/US-Air-Force-Long-Range-Strike-Aircraft-White-Paper-November-2001

But I'll see what else I can dig up before work

Scott

Karl Reisman said...

@Marie, what do youmean Idling?

Robert Scheer, local commie loving gadfly thinks that the Russia war is a Neocon plot to get McCain Elected.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/12/EDCD129NI4.DTL

background on Scheer.
http://www.smmirror.com/MainPages/DisplayArticleDetails.asp?eid=8245

He's a friend of Arianna Huffington and is the plodding leftist voice on KCRW's "Left, Right< and Center" Fridays. Their "right guy" is pretty weak tea, but the show is at least cordial.

Karl Reisman said...

Some redeployments with recent calender dates:

http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/articles/2008/07/22/news/local/doc48852c20b1d5d630239427.txt


http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/u_s_naval_update_map_aug_12_2008

Meanwhile the russian's own naval shenanigans continue.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/2008813153517926662.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7558399.stm

Marie said...

Karl:

I posted that before they got to microphones or the press or the blogs. Just heard Susan Rice accuse McCain of "shooting from the hip" which could have worsened the situation. I don't have a link because it was on the news. I'm sure there will be more.

The first U.S. plane with humanitarian aid has landed in Tbilisi. Let's keep our fingers crossed, because the Russian idea of cease fire is for everyone else to stop while they continue. All it takes someone trigger happy and all hell will break loose.

There was an excellent presentation by Kagen and others from the American Enterprise Institute on C-span this afternoon. Unfortunately I only caught a bit of it. Will see if I can find it online.

Marie said...

Here's the C-span link.


Assessment of Russia-Georgia Conflict, American Enterprise Institute

Marie said...

Before I bid you goodnight - someone really should tell Georgia's President to be a bit more circumspect in his remarks.

Purr said...

President Mikheil Saakashvili was just on Glenn Beck-- via Satellite-
on a open roof--

His conversation with Beck was more of an emotional conversation. 180,000 people are displaced- He basically made a plea stating this country is based on values and freedom.

He stated which I guess he mentioned to Bush, the Russians slogan while bombing is- this if for the US, this is for NATO, and this is for Bush.

He mentioned humanitarian assistance is being brought in.

And he insists this was a defensive action on their part when this all started as the Russians had rolled in 150 tanks into Georgia...

He reiterated a few times on how "evil" these actions are and also by Putin--

His demeanor on Beck's was more of a man who is extremely upset and concerned about what is going on in Georgia and to the people!

He made me feel for him! This was tonight's conversation-- From what he said, the people are behind him-
Now what is really felt by the people, no se!

Karl Reisman said...

Two from Austin Bay.. Interesting Reading:

http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1951

http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1950

Enjoy!

Scott

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@karl

Thank you for the effort. Let's keep an ear to the ground for public releases, because there is some movement, I just can't cite it.

@Marie and Susan

The "war for public opinion" is certainly on, and yes M. Saakashvili should be a bit more careful. He is, with the documentation coming in from Human Rights Watch, able to make a case right now. He'll do better if a third party can demonstrate that the original Georgian Arty fire in South Ossetia was to destroy that bridge and counterfire Ossetian/Russian positions. So long as it looks like Georgian forces also leveled the town (the Russian claim), he's got a problem.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Two Op-Ed pieces just hitting the distribution:

M. Saakashvili in the Washington Post

and

J. McCain in the Wall Street Journal

both via FOXNews Urgent Queue, original sources credited there.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

One more Op-Ed of value, by Charles Krauthammer. Further evidence you should read *everything* he writes:

C Krauthammer, 14.August2008

note re Op-Ed pieces: yes, I read Martin Sieff's piece at UPI. I also discount *all* his Georgia-related analysis. I only mention it because it does have some meaningful blame for the Bush Administration for not reading the tea leaves right. Go to UPI's site Issue of the Day if you want. I'm not giving him the link credit (turnabout? you be the judge).

Karl Reisman said...

Got this from someone on SL.

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/9507/1218492596085wb5.gif

I said it was missing the first frame of the cub throwing rocks through the guy's window. The discussion devolved from there with him telling me to go and die...

So this is spreading into "international Social Forums" like Second Life.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@karl

Yes, the first frame is cropped off.

...and it does beg a fourth frame, you know. Let's see if it shows a chiding Human Mother, or a posse of Bear Hunters.

Mr. Bill said...

@LDG:

Not sure if you can see this, but I caught it earlier, and the host's emotions aside, the videos of M. Saakashvili bother me.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

this just in from S. Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister:

-Talk of Georgia's territorial integrity "can be forgotten about"-

Should have an English-language link shortly.

***
@mr bill

Give me a moment and I'll look. Thanks for the link.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

OK. mr. bill...

I have now endured 8min33sec of K. Olbermann's emotions and am prepared to field questions.

What about M. Saakashvili on video?

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here's Lavrov's statement as carried by The AP.

Georgia's Territorial Integrity--Forget about it

Mr. Bill said...

@LDG,

Yeah, I figured he's not your cup of tea. What bothers me is the president of Georgia singling out Senator McCain, the Hungary 1956 analogy, and whether Randy Scheuneman represents a conflict of interest or a stronger position. Are any of these things that Olbermann highlights truly of any consequence, or is he taking things out of context / emphasizing the wrong ideas in order to sell more hybrid cars & environmentally-safe dish soap during the commercial breaks?

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@mr. bill

Let's see, I think Marie alluded to part of this answer actually with her comment of 13Aug 7:56pm...

Saakashvili probably did say the wrong kind of thing when he brought J.McCain into the discussion, but whether it was by a chiding tone on the whole "We are all Georgians" bit or something else, I think is hard to say. Were it me writing the speech, I would have had him touch on the first few days' misteps by G.W. Bush (and staff!) and then focus for the sound-bite on how "help has started to come now... send more..."

The 1956 analogy is sadly dead-on. The Eisenhower administration basically did promise to support the uprising and then outright welched on the deal. It is a good thing to remind the average listener about that when using media to try and get commitments made/fulfilled now.

All that about R. Scheuneman is basically old news. He was forced to get out of the lobbying business in May by new campaign rules implemented to prevent/cease COI issues. There have been all sorts of "bought and paid for support" claims surrounding Georgia for years now, anyway... (My favorite fabrication-based-on-some-truth is that Saakashvili is a paid stooge of George Soros. BTW, if he ever was, he sure as heck isn't now.)

So, to sum up:
"Are any of these things that Olbermann highlights..." -- I'll say 10~20 % are serious questions that anyone making a judgement as to why McCain is acting the way he is about Georgia. The rest just sold more environmentally-safe soap to the target audience of his show. (His guest analyst was a partisan hack, for example).

***
fair disclosure -- I firmly believe in the right of privately owned media to be partisan, and to reflect the views of the owner/manager. I just wish most of the people in the business today had passed Journalism 101 - Opinion vs. Reporting.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here's Human Rights Watch, via Reuters, reporting from inside South Ossetia:

HRW calls shenanigans on Russian claims

...yes, that's my wording on the link title. It is about what they said though.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

The Economist calls it like they see it, too:

The Economist, 14.August

Marie said...

Karl/Scott:

Excellent Austinbay links. I know absolutely nothing about the military aspects touched upon there or if they would be an option, but I do like the idea of the PKB. Would it be doable?

Another question, whose brilliant idea was it to leave the Russian "peacekeepers" (sic) in S. Ossetia? A bit like the fox guarding the hen house, no?

As for Soros, he has his fingers in just about every pie around. I agree with LDG, if Saakashvili had connections to him, I doubt he has them now.

Marie said...

Georgians living in terror:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/14/georgia.russia

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Russian Armor/Vehicular reported massing along the coast:

Reuters seems to be actually reporting

Here's one for you amateur "squints". Notice the building behind the vehicle has multiple large-calbre direct fire strikes:

Odd, I thought the town was destroyed by artillery

and lastly, a troubling one. Steve Harrigan, who I have said before is most respectable, filed this:

Humiliated, Undisciplined Force

...pulled up in *cars*??? Uniformed Georgian Line Troops, were they? Red-White Irregulars? or did he not know who they were and just assumed that since the reporters were meeting Russians, anyone angry had to be Georgian?

Come on, Dr. Harrigan, make it clear what you saw. ((looks to his 'blog to see if he posts))

Karl Reisman said...

Oh.. how I would love to take a baseball bat to Keith Olberman's knees...

McCains' WSJ Op Ed:
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB121867081398238807.html

andmy Earlier coment about AAA seems to have been on target:
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/20080814.aspx

On a completely different thought. We "beat the Soviets in the cold war, handing the Soviets a humiliation of collapse and dissolution without firing (many) a shot, but basically outspending them without harming our economy (and in fact improving it possibly).

So a butt hurt Russia, now with the rippling muscles of petrodollars may not have the structural limitations that the old Soviet system had. I amg etting worried. Russia as an amoral blingtard.. terrific.

Viktor Davis hansen kind of echoes the sentiment:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGM5NGE1ZTc2NWUzZTljNjVhZGQ0ZDEwMDJmMGRlMmU=

Charles Krauthammer has a few suggestions:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NmEyZThlMjUxY2JiMmM1ODZlYWU0ZWUxMDA1NzVhZTE=

Georgians Requested Austrailian military Assistance? Wow...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24176666-7583,00.html

U.N. Pres release:
http://www.undispatch.com/archives/2008/08/managing_the_hu.php

And Fox News reporter Steve Carrigan is reporting explosions, and Rissian troops re-entering Gori. OPther reports have the Russians sabotaging Georgian Airfields and re-occupying Poti. So the "cease Fire" has collapsed, but the Russians also seem to ahve lost momentum. Carrigan was also threatened by a Georgian irregular with a cocked pistol.Situation developing?

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Still hunting for EPW (POW) counts from both sides...

ICRC hasn't released any numbers other than saying they visited the two downed Russian Aircrewmen.

The *only* other find I got was this:

Liveleak, showing Russian TV interview

...six Georgian reservists? That is all they had to show?

more: read the comments below the video feed. rather educated comments; some good language speakers improve the translation; no small number call B.S. on this as a propaganda trick.

color me surprised.

Karl Reisman said...

Oops .. and we duplicated the last item. Apologies.

the L.A> Times reports:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-ossetia15-2008aug15,0,3729955.story

Source on the damage to Airfields
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gQYe039zkquHxitiI6u4M_TRr_BAD92I2UM81

No info yet on any Airforce movements.

Scott

Scott

Karl Reisman said...

More depressing analysis
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODczYmQ1YTU2NWRkYjA4OWYzZDk2MzEzYWE3YmU2MDc=

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@karl

don't be utterly disheartened. lots of back and forth analysis right now.

@All

Here is a superb report from DANGER ROOM about casualties and civilian deaths / crimes / looting
**photo sub-link not for the weak of stomach**

DANGER ROOM Brutal Pictures (of fighting in Georgia)

Off-Topic: David Axe from the DANGER ROOM has an article for miltech geeks about weapons performance and tactics in the 5-day Fight. Link via Popular Mechanics or on DANGER ROOM.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

GovUkraine makes it official about the Black Sea Fleet vessels not being allowed to return without renewed permission. Russian Naval Force Cmdr says...

How do you say 'LA-LA-LA-LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU in Ukrayins'ka?

hrm. that appears effective.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Interview at RFE/RL with the President of Estonia:

This changes everything

I particularly like his quiet reference to Koenigsberg (Kaliningrad) and his restatement of the old question...

(my paraphrase) "Why do people with money always think they can buy off people with guns?"

Purr said...

I was just going to mention McCain and how he was brought into the conversation by Georgia's President--

but then McCain should have thought first before making his comment-- even though, these two know each other personally, McCain's statement would also be heard in Russia-- I guess they both have should have been more circumspect in their remarks--

And I did see last night on Special Report, from Steve Carrigan's reporting, how the Georgians are upset with President Mikheil

Purr said...

Charles Krauthammer discussed 1 and 2, in your link, LDG, last night- with Bret Baier, who was filling in for Brit-

He emphasized the denying entry into the World Trade Organization

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Good Morning, Susan!

re: "McCain's statement would also be heard in Russia" -- it was intended to be heard in Russia. He was staking claim to the hard line politically.

What made things less clear was that Saakashvili muddied the water about whether it was appreciated by Georgia. *His* statement was not so useful.

Where McCain went wrong was a little later, not backing J. Lieberman on his statement in support of McCain's political position. That was weak.

oh, and I think you meant Harrigan, not "Carrigan" in your (and 'karl' s) comments, yes?

Purr said...

yes-- ooops! wrong consonant-

How I perceived McCain's statement, which I agree with, is fueling the fire-- He is not President yet--

Purr said...

Danger Room photos--

good thing I don't eat breakfast!

pretty raw

and morning to us both!

Purr said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Marie said...

I've just spent a bit of time reading comments in the different blogs/news outlets, etc. I'm appalled by the crassness and total lack of understanding of most of those posting comments (yes, many are shills, I know). Only someone who has no notion of what it means to live enslaved, like the peoples of the countries of the former Soviet Union lived, could ask them to go back to what was.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Susan

re: McCain's -- ah ok, same point discussed in mr. bill's inquiry about an Olbermann interview w/ commentary. Right, he's not President.

(side note to Bill: looks like there is some consequence as it matters to one voter at least -- Susan noticed)

re: photos -- I tried to warn you.

@Marie

Sad but true, after you discount the FSB guys working, there are still a lot of commenters, esp. on media sites and articles, that are demonstrating what could be considered criminal selfishness (or ignorance, or both).

We can just try to raise the discussion a bit, but that is all we can do with words.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

personal note: I need rest now. Schedule changed for tomorrow. But it means I can look in here again in about 6~8 hours, so all for the good.

be well and safe, All.
((departs for now))

Purr said...

which is it?

Russia is moving forwards, backwards, or stopped moving?

three different versions going on here!

Neil Cavuto has us entering into a Cold War-

Steve Harrigan had reported huge tanks were advancing -

and now, the Russians have stopped moving- Gates doesn't expect US military force in Georgia--

And now this Attack Manual by the Al- Qaeda is making the news--

Purr said...

what say you LDG?

Since you saw this Georgia incident coming before anyone else did.

Karl Reisman said...

Poland has accepted the offer of putting anti-missile misiles on Poland.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aakWCWAS_u34&refer=worldwide

Austin Bay's analysis:

http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1952

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Susan

re: "what say you LDG?"

I say the Russians are on the horns of a dilemma as to what more they can get away with, so they are probing everywhere they can trying to find routes to valuable things that won't slam into the "Delaware River" line of defense, for now.

There is some genuine pause being taken by some of the Russian military leadership at the possibility of having inflamed the entire Western-border into hostility, and they think that a little time and more diplomatic make-nice will get the bigger (and farther away) E.U. countries to calm folks down.

But they have a real "need" to continue to degrade Georgian capabilities, in their eyes. If they will roll back onto the offensive, they want them weakened. If they are going to pack up and pull back, they want to leave nothing of value to the Georgians.

***
Off-topic
re: the al-Qaeda manual. That is news only to the media and the various police departments quoted in the stories. The pros have long kept track of such, and MEMRI and SITE promulgate to professionals translations/interpretations as soon as most anything like that comes out.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

-follow up-

U.S. SecDef Gates is soft-pedalling things for reasons political.

He did let slip the one fact that made this an easy prediction, by the way: That South Ossetians and regular Georgian forces have exchanged fire *every* August since 2004. (The Ossetians bus all their children and some other dependents over the border to Russia for "summer holiday" every year. Then they go to work stirring things up. See buses move, expect trouble.)

@karl

re: Polish Protection -- the big news there is that the Poles get improved PAC-3 and various other material and support. That the Interceptor site is allowed is a nice bonus in the big picture, and a move designed by the Poles to kick a little sand on the Russians while they can.

But in the big picture, it is very good news.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

re: mine here of 14.Aug 6:55am

Clarification as to WHO the crazed, undisciplined, pistol-shooting thug(s) the Russians stood by and watched shoot at Steve Harrigan and crew...

an Ossetian Irregular

Attention, Guys over at FOXNews: I shouldn't have to dig into the personal 'blog of one of the crew to find this detail.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Tangent to this topic:

I do so appreciate Gerard Baker...

His column at the Times (UK) today

...he sees the E.U. for what it really is.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

German Chancellor Merkel finally showed her head on this...

She's meeting Medvedev in Sochi

You'd think of all people, she would know better.

Purr said...

what the hell is a buffer over flow?

I was reading and my McAfee brought that up! Is Russia hacking into my computer--

I was reading about how the Russians ahve parked themselves 35 miles out of Kutaisi-- "rattling the civilians."

Purr said...

Ossetian irregular--

that was funny LDG--

I see Brad makes his rounds-- (comments on Harrigan's blog)

last post- I have a typo--ahve

O'Reilly sure is angry with Russia!

Purr said...

While Merkel is there, she can remind Medvedev Olympics are off!

Karl Reisman said...

Well. apparently Izvestia went bonkers over the L.A. Times Op Ed by Max Boot. (Not todays which is just a harping of Scheer's insinuation that McCain's Campaign manager, and former Gerogian Lobbyist is responsible) However I cannot get to the Izvestia site. I don't think I can even go to any *.ru address. But apparently they wne to unbelievable language in describing the LA TImes and the editorial, in a display worthy of a Firedog Lake posting. Amazing.

Scott

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Susan

Dare I ask... why was that funny?

@karl

they did. and gee gosh... dot ru addys aren't working so well today.

@All

This is a "must read" item.

If Georgia is to fight...

It isn't any thing new to us guys that eat-and-breathe this stuff, but for anyone wanting an explanation in fairly simple terms, here it is.

Mr. Bill said...

@Susan:

what say you LDG?

Since you saw this Georgia incident coming before anyone else did.


Apparently, there is a video of Congressman Ron Paul from 2002 predicting the Georgia-Russia conflict.

@Karl/Scott:

One of the reasons you may have a problem getting to .ru domains is that there is apparently a cyberwar going on in parallel to the tangible conflict.

The Slate article referenced is, I suspect, just one "combatant's" experience in an ongoing guerilla conflict that involves hundreds.

Marie said...

Re: your 7:36 remark about Harrington and the report... Send the link to our friend over at Fox and see if he can have it cleared up.

Marie said...

Whoops, sorry, that should be Harrigan. Note to self: do not comment when half-asleep.

As for Merkel and Germany. I wouldn't hold my breath. The Sarkozy truce is so open ended that it can be interpreted any way the Russians want... also, don't forget that Franc e and Germany were the two countries that voted against path to NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. Germany is also Russia's biggest trading partner.

Until REAL peacekeepers can be sent in and Poti, Gori and the east-west highway can be secured, Georgia is in a precarious position.

As for Poland, good for them. Glad they signed the agreement. Now, although over the centuries there has been no love lost between Poland and Ukraine, it would behoove Poland to work towards getting approval for Ukraine (and Georgia) to join NATO, as Ukraine acts as a buffer (as it has from time immemorial)against Russia.

Now all this, of course, depends on how much gumption the EU has. I also have my doubts about that.

Marie said...

Good read from the Economist, particularly the description of South Ossetia.

Russia and Georgia

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@mr bill and Susan

re: "...from 2002 predicting the Georgia-Russia conflict."

...proof positive one need not be The Amazing Kreskin to have at least had a hint about this. see my comment 14.Aug 6:56 pm as to how this particular incident got called.

@marie

I'm already in the door over at FOXNews on that item, but thanks for mentioning it here in case they look here before they clear their 'blog mod queue.

Marie said...

Another good read in http://www.blackfive.net/main/

the thread named "The Things Not Reported", particularly the link to John A. Barnes "has something here"

Marie said...

Cluster bombs anyone?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4539186.ece

Marie said...

Russia Threatens

L.Douglas Garrett said...

New statement issued by GW Bush:

Upping the ante?

also, Saakashvili-Rice presser due to start shortly in Tbilisi.

-more as that comes in-

Marie said...

If you are in the Washington, DC area, please note:

The Georgian Association of the U.S. is planning two major demonstrations this Friday, August 15 in Washington, DC. They chose the second half of the day at the end of the week to ensure a good turnout and to allow for adequate planning time.

Demonstration 1
2:00 PM at the Lafayette Park by the White House.

Demonstration 2
4:30 PM at the Russian Embassy. (The corner of Wisconsin Avenue and Edmunds Street)

If you can, attend and show your support.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Dr. George Friedman of STRATFOR, on NPR this morning.

Talking about Georgia

I respect this man a lot, but I can't say I was particularly happy to hear his view of the situation. I'm not sure I even agree with him this time.

Marie said...

Read it and doesn't please me at all.

Look at the last paragraph - not the last sentence.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08142008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/a_czar_is_born__bad_vlad_wins_war__dupes_124386.htm

L.Douglas Garrett said...

This from RFE/RL:

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State says...

***
@Marie

re: yours, just above, at 8:20.

I'll look. wait one, please.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Marie

re: Ralph Peters at the NY Post

As far as assessing the foe goes, I'd give that the full 10 points.

...and yes, the Operational code-name is intentionally ominous.

All that, and some other analyst's calls mentioned above, be as it may be, I am not yet of the mind to call this a strategic or even regional loss (yet). I stand by my claim though that the Georgians (and what aid is with them) are going to have to pull off *something* in the field to take the shine off Putin's so-called victory, and pretty darn soon.

...now where is that report on the presser with Saakashvili and Rice? Taking their good time in getting that out to the wires, they are.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here it comes:

"TBILISI, Georgia (AP) - Georgian president says he signed cease-fire agreement with Russia."

...okay...

Signed it as it was delivered? Frankly, that would be bad.

-more as this clears up-

L.Douglas Garrett said...

SecState Rice now saying with the truce signed, all Russian forces must now leave...(Georgia, presumably)

I'm waiting for the "or else" clause.

It sure the heck better be "or else the whole truce deal is off, and there will be a reckoning on a grand scale". Given this is DeptState talking, I likely hope for too much. Prove me mistaken, Ms. Rice.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here is the push from The AP on this:

The AP, via FOXNews

L.Douglas Garrett said...

John Bolton in the Telegraph (UK) today:

Rips into both DeptState and several NATO members

...written before the truce was signed.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here's another tangent item, for the how-to-with-guns part of the crew:

First comprehensive afteraction on the Black Sea Naval Encounter

key points: has the real facts on the Georgian Patrol Boats' brave attempt to disrupt the landing in Abkhazia; accounts for the photo of the Tbilisi in Poti harbor; accounts for how the Russians sealifted 4000 troops (no vehicles).

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here's the revised push from The AP regarding the cease-fire signing:

Letter of clarification from Sarkozy, more

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Last item for now, then off I go to rest.

Allahpundit at HotAir, with more on Bolton's op-ed piece:

lots more

the comments are as interesting as the thread post, and it is pretty darn good.

righty oh. out for now.
((departs for a bit))

Marie said...

Discovering something that was pretty obvious?

Did Russia Plan the War?

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@Marie

Indeed, not much hiding of that possible.

@All

Ok, we have Medvedev's mark on the official piece of paper, and the rush transcript of GW Bush's statement on the situation just came in here.

...and there are the first reports of withdrawal, but we also have entrenched Russian forces. Things are in the political sphere for now, sure, but this is *not* a done deal until Ivan's extra forces are all back outside Georgian Territory.

Stay tuned.

Karl Reisman said...

So something has been bugging me. reports of looting, and drunken weaponsfire. Are the Russian troops really that ill disciplned, or low quality/ I dont think there are that many "irregulars".

Scott

L.Douglas Garrett said...

It is that bad for the non-Airborne units, and the 20,000 irregulars they intentionally flooded in to the area are essentially banditry, and there is one more thing mixed in...

...there have been orders to regular to engage in "despoiling" areas of Georgia proper.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here's one report of just that:

Abkhazian intrusion, looting, aerial firebombing.

caveat: this is a Georgian Government release. second source it.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Here's The AP's latest version of the situation, via FOXNews:

More Russian Artillery (my title)

confirms the looting and intentional despoilage.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Lengthy, but very good read from:

Times (UK), reporting both sides

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Video from the BBC, represented via Powerline:

Secretly Taken Video, posted 17 August

Confirms the reports of Artillery being rolled forward, and of Russian repeated incursions into Poti.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Ms Merkel finally showed up in Georgia. Good thing, too, because ol' G. Schroeder (*publicly* paid Putin man now) has been undermining the Georgians for a week.

She says NATO membership for Georgia, NATO may help rebuild Georgian Military

also:

SecState Rice and SecDef Gates did the rounds on the Sunday Talk Shows. Gates didn't exactly seem to be with the program (according to excerpts)...

Karl Reisman said...

Strategy Page Breaks it Down.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/20080817.aspx

Karl Reisman said...

military Victory leading to possible political isolation and defeat.

http://www.radionetherlands.nl/news/international/5921543/Ukraine-to-join-in-USled-missile-shield-in-Europe

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gDNLWfQWKrQc48pITBUg9KT_6oVwD92K2SE80

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121884390619045939.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks

Heh...

L.Douglas Garrett said...

**Important**

This is a first-source in open source of the critical timeline events prior to the Georgian offensive (into South Ossetia) portion of the war.

The Kurta Bridge (near the end of the article)

...and this is the first reference to the satellite photos of Russian Armor in motion toward the Roki Tunnel *before* the situation fully developed.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

NEW THREAD POSTED

The Kurta Bridge

Please roll forward and comment there from now. Thank you.

Marie said...

Sorry late addition as I've been missing in action for a couple of days.

Scott: going back to WWII and Stalin. It was a known fact that he opened Russia's jails, armed prisoners and told them that if they lived, they were free, so I wouldn't doubt that there has been looting, etc.

Source: eyewitness accounts.