Sunday Morning Push

And then... and then I was busy. The wrong kind of busy. Not sure it is going to be better tomorrow, either. Stay tuned.

What got missed last week:

. Martin got the handshake. Elizabeth II was in Northern Ireland for part of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations. That's got to be an Only-Nixon-could-go-to-China moment for the Provos... Hope his own partisans don't hold it against him.

.. John Roberts engaged in one of the great judicial manuevers in the history of the SCOTUS. He was right about one thing, at least: It is not the court's job to save the electorate from bad laws passed by their representatives.

... Syria, Yemen, and Mali are all still hot zones in the Arab Spring (a year later and looking nothing like it did) and the GWOT. No coincidence, that.

.... Egypt elected Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood (yeah, he had a different party name; same difference) as President. SCAF (the Army government) tried to set the table by dissolving Parliament and taking over the new Constitution-writing, but even if that man is just a figurehead... ho boy... he's going to be trouble.

..... and lots more.

OK, your turn. This is an Open topic thread.

The usual rules all apply; most importantly: Play Nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

Coup; Counter-coup; Mutiny

Time for your T.I.A. of the day, all from the BBC:

Guinea-Bissau

Coup still in slow-motion; detained political leaders released last weekend, and; ECOWAS gets around to imposing sanctions:

West African regional bloc Ecowas has imposed targeted sanctions on Guinea-Bissau's military junta after talks to restore civilian rule broke down.

Coup leader General Antonio Indjai "is not willing to negotiate and clearly prefers to face the consequences," an Ecowas statement said.

Mali

The Junta still holds, but have lost the entire north and northeast of the country to the Tuareg insurgency they were supposed to be fighting; former President Toure got away and fled the country; the Junta supposedly yielded power to an interim government on 12.April, but then went on doing Junta-things; ECOWAS did lay sanctions on the Junta and recognized instead the appointment of Dioncounda Traore as an interim President, and; now the Junta is on day two of fighting off a counter-coup:

Shooting has been heard for a second day in Mali's capital, despite the junta saying it had reasserted control after an attempt to overthrow it.

Most of the gunfire came from a military camp housing loyalists of ousted President Amadou Toumani Toure, who tried to stage an uprising.

D.R.Congo

The Kivu regions in the east, many times a topic here at CompHyp, remain a fertile ground for all the bad things left over from the Congo War(s); In 2009 the national government made terms with one of the worst of the local warlords, Bosco Ntaganda, going so far as to intergrate his forces into the national army and make him a General; Oddly, they overlooked his 2006 indictment by the ICC for war crimes and his role in the 2008 massacre at Kiwanji; He's now led a mutiny of troops and set out as a warlord once again, apparently fairly successfully:

Troops loyal to Bosco Ntaganda, wanted by the International Criminal Court, have taken two towns in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

A BBC reporter in the area says thousands of people are fleeing the fierce fighting towards nearby Goma.

Hundreds of heavily armed soldiers loyal to Gen Ntaganda recently defected from the Congolese army.

Things aren't exactly getting better, are they?

Guilty, Not Guilty

Two cases, unrelated other than that they have both been discussed here in the past. Guilty: Charles Taylor.

International judges have found former Liberian leader Charles Taylor guilty of aiding and abetting war crimes during the Sierra Leone civil war, at his trial in The Hague. Taylor has been on trial at the Special Court for Sierra Leone for almost five years. He was accused of backing rebels who killed tens of thousands during Sierra Leone's 1991-2002 civil war. But he was cleared of ordering their crimes.

Not Guilty: Ozawa Ichirou (I. Ozawa)

Influential Japanese politician Ichiro Ozawa has been found not guilty in a funding scandal. Mr Ozawa, dubbed Japan's "shadow shogun" because of the backroom power he wields, had been accused of violating political fundraising laws.

Oh well, burden of proof and all that.

and anyone else

Reuters Thompson AlertNet has just run up this emergency warning to U.S. citizens in Abuja, Nigeria...

...which is based on this offical message from the Embassy. Key Point:

The U.S. Embassy has received information that Boko Haram may be planning attacks in Abuja, Nigeria, including against hotels frequently visited by Westerners. The U.S. government has no additional information regarding the timing of these possible attacks. The Nigerian government is aware of the threat and is actively implementing security measures.

Considering that the threat is (1) regarding Boko Haram, (2) targeting "Westerners" in public locations, and (3) Boko Haram has proven to be quite indiscriminate in its targeting profile, let's just call this a Travel Advisory to just about anyone planning an optional trip to Abuja.

If you have to go, be smart as you always should... and invest in a little extra smart this time around.

and Guinea-Bissau goes

Coup season is apparently upon us and the In-Box at ECOWAS peace-enforcement must be getting pretty full right now...

Guinea-Bissau, as foreshadowed here at CompHyp in previous analysis, has undergone a military take-over.

Yes, it is the real thing. Troops have seized the interim President and perhaps more importantly the retiring Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior, who was forecast to be the most likely winner of the coming Presidential election. Oh, and he was campaigning on a plan to cut the military...

...and that hasn't been well received by the uniformed set, to say the least. In fact, they believed he was about to set "peacekeeping troops" on them:

In a statement read on state radio on Friday morning, the military said it had acted to halt what it called foreign intervention.

It alleged the interim government had done a secret deal to allow Angolan troops to wipe out Guinea-Bissau's army.

As far as rumormongering goes, that's a pretty good motivator for a troop insurrection.

Here's a longer report from Reuters Africa that, while written a bit earlier in the events, has more information on the Narcostate and Narcoterror issues involved in all this.

There are some players that need to be eliminated (politically) from the picture before things start getting better in Guinea-Bissau. This isn't how. This only lets one group of kleptocrats push out the other.

'Close' was deadly enough

For those that have followed CompHyp, and really anyone who has seen international news over the last years, the group Boko Haram is a familiar one. This Islamist insurgency, mostly in Nigeria, was a vastly under-rated threat when they first surfaced and efforts to wipe them out have had decidedly mixed result.

Over the winter, the group launched a Christmas bombing campaign that caused significant death and destruction, and once again they are at it trying their murderous ways on a Christian holiday. The first bomb report came in from the city of Kaduna, where Easter celebrations at a Christian Church were targeted... that car bomb went off at a security checkpoint near the church... at least five dead...

... and now a related second bomb report has come in. There is some disagreement as to the total number of dead and injured, but at least 6 and 18 seems consistent.

No, Boko Haram hasn't (yet) issued any formal claim. Being that they are the only game in town, however, this is not a challenge to attribute the attacks to them.

So much for negotiations.

Calling in support

I'm on a deadline this fine evening (local time) and as such won't be going through sources until much later. So I'm calling in support:

Here's the link to the always superb NightWatch for today. The topics are Azerbaijan-Israel, Syria and Mali. The writing is by and for analysts, but I think these topics will be of some general interest as well. I haven't even touched on the Azerbaijan story here (mostly out of concern that I'd be too angry at the time of the leak), but it has become widespread open-source so I don't mind linking to a discussion of it now.

Enjoy!

Mali Army Revolt

It looks a lot like a coup, except it isn't (yet)... no clear word on where the Presidential party is, but the troops haven't taken them although some ministers of the government have been. It certainly is an absolutely crippling revolt by elements of the Mali Army.

The reasons (officially) include the usual laundry list of claims against the regime, but one stands out: The Army has been engaged in a nasty fight against Tuareg insurgents who have lots and lots of arms left over from their days helping out on the side of bad in the North African crises, specifically Libya. The Mali Army forces were sent north to take them on with less-than-complete kit ...not that the regular Mali Army arsenal is anything to brag about... and have gotten handed defeat after defeat. Morale in the ranks of what has been a modestly respectable standing army collapsed and their blame focused on the Defense Ministry.

This matters, besides the usual reasons of not wanting rebellious troops rampaging through one's city, because the nexus between West and North Africa has been one of the few areas of growing strength for al-Qaeda-linked Islamist militancy (building on, if not supplanting, the usual bandit culture of the back country areas).

Losing the assistance of Mali in that fight, even for a short while, is bad for all of us.

Another Guinea Bissau Assassination

This time, on the very day of the latest Presidential election... Colonel Samba Diallo, the former head of military intelligence was shot dead.

Diallo was widely feared during his time as head of military intelligence and is believed to have played a role in many coups and political assassinations, diplomatic sources said.

Um, yes.

The larger problem, one only masked by the appearance of a peaceful election, is that the only discernable difference between any stereotypical narcostate and the current situation in Guinea Bissau is that the factions in the military have been killing each other off gangland-style for much longer than the flood of cocaine money has sloshed around in the country.

So, whether this was an old score or a new dispute matters not in the particular, but it does mean that things aren't getting better... and that's just the way the narcos would want the country to stay.

A timely assist.

Thank you, France, for the timely assist:

Late on Wednesday, French helicopters moved in to evacuate the Japanese ambassador, Okamura Yoshifumi, after his home near the presidential residence was invaded by unidentified gunmen.

The envoy and his aides were whisked to safety in a French military camp at Port-Bouet, south of Abidjan, the French embassy said.

The French said they had acted after a request from Japan and the UN.

Once, long ago and in a very different place, our roles were reversed.

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The BBC also has this video taken during the rescue.

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More about the circumstances of the evacuation and a similar request for evacuation by Israel.

Endgame in Cote d'Ivoire

It is down to a final stand by Gbagbo's loyalists and his Republican Guard, in Abidjan, against a force of northern rebels and Ouattara partisans that has swept the rest of the country out of the hands of the regime.

Predictably, once it came to this, the old hatreds and N-S divisions left over from the Ivoire Civil War have also spilled out. Looting and mistreatment of refugees are now being widely reported. *Here* is the BBC version, and *here* is AlertNet (from Reuters) with more about the fighting.

Meanwhile, the U.N. calls for calm and yet their peacekeepers are kept back at their base guarding foreign evacuees. France calls for a resolution, yet LICORNE force is also held back from acting. The de facto President, Gbagbo, encourages his men to fight and says he is still in the country (yet other reports place his family and key supporters already out of the country), while the internationally recognized President, Ouattara, awaits his invitation to move into the palace... once his allies are done turning Abidjan into looted rubble.

...because after months of ECOWAS ineptitude and international failure to back up their words, when push comes to shove... that's still how things are done there.

T.I.A.

Yes and No

Yes, this is good. Sure would be better if some progress toward getting Gbagbo out was happening on the ground, though.

No, this isn't good. Neither is the ongoing "teachers strike" which is about a whole lot more than education.

"groundless"

from the BBC about CdI:

The UN team was attacked in the capital, Yamoussoukro.

They were looking into reports that Belarus had provided attack helicopters for supporters of Laurent Gbagbo, who refuses to give up the presidency.

Belarus has denied the allegations as "groundless".

Let's just say I'd go with the unconfirmed reports over a Lukashenko regime denial. Looks like the UNSC sees it that way, too. Note the Libyan side issue mentioned in this article as well. There is a history of such behaviour.

Fighting a political war in the banks

First, there were calls to embargo Cocoa exports to try to cut off hard currency revenues; Now the battle is over control of the assets of the Central Bank.

That's where the campaigns to oust (or to keep in power) de facto President Laurent Gbagbo of Côte d'Ivoire is being fought right now.

Ivory Coast's incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo has ordered the seizure of all local branches of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO).

The BBC's John James in Abidjan says gendarmes and armoured vehicles have surrounded the bank's HQ in the city.

It is being fought there for two reasons: To try anything to avoid a foreign military intervention to remove Gbagbo; and because Gbagbo can't stay in power if his money runs out.

Without access to government funds, it is unclear whether Mr Gbagbo will be able to continuing paying the country's military and security forces.

This all goes back to Gbagbo playing for time.

He's having some success. While ECOWAS is still considering intervention and is rounding up International support for such an operation, the first cracks in the African Union position opposing Gbagbo are showing.

If the Opposition and ECOWAS are to carry the day on this, they are going to have to get back some of the momentum. Otherwise...

T.I.A.

Sunday Morning Push

It's been a very good week here, both 'blogging and working, thanks to the efforts of some very good friends. I remain grateful to you, ladies and gentlemen.

Following up some earlier threads here at CompHyp:

The Royal Malaysian Navy made it two-for-two this week against the pirates of Somalia with a successful interception and a lively shooting match that bagged all the attackers.

The Central Bank of West Africa will have a new chief, and that cuts off another point of support for de facto President L. Gbagbo of Côte d'Ivoire. He may yet be pushed out of power without a military intervention, but nothing is resolved yet.

The commentary here on American B. Rhodes' ill-considered remarks to P.R. Chinese media about the Senkaku Islands matter has been picked up in the 'blogosphere. Special thanks again to Professor Jacobson at Legal Insurrection for making it the Post of the Day there.


So now it's your turn. Here's your Open thread for Sunday.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

Meanwhile, in Côte d'Ivoire...

...things aren't getting better.

De facto President Laurent Gbagbo's effort to push aside U.N. and French peacekeepers has been entirely rightly ignored, but his loyalists in the army still have ~600 UN peacekeepers surrounded in their entrenchments around the Golf Hotel complex that headquarters recognized-electee Alassane Ouattara and his staff.

ECOWAS isn't scheduled to go back in for talks until the new week. The last round of such was less than impressive, with an almost go-slow approach to the problem. Here's why.

Other people aren't waiting around to get involved, and that's *very* bad news. These folks are the same randomly murderous gangs of Charles Taylor's civil war in Liberia made infamous in the "Blood Diamond" story. Not a good sign when they are volunteering to join either side (or both!).

The spokesman for Alassane Ouattara is now publicly calling for ECOWAS to come with force quickly to remove Gbagbo and his regime.

Gbagbo, for his part, has simply rejected the call to step down by his rival and, in his New Year's address,

Mr Gbagbo said the pressure for him to quit amounted to "an attempted coup d'etat carried out under the banner of the international community".

Not going anywhere.

So here we go, again.

T.I.A.

The militants formerly known as Boko Haram

No, they aren't using a symbol instead of a name now.

Yes, they are back in their bloody and intolerant terror trade.

For those who thought the group had been wiped out last year after the leadership and hundreds of followers were killed or captured by Nigerian authorities, there might be one little detail that was overlooked... 700 detained Boko Haram followers were freed in a jail-break in September of this year. Most made it successfully on the lam and have been steadily regrouping ever since.

So they are certainly back. The open question has "Are they still capable of terror campaigns?", and that can be put to rest as well. They are capable, and rearmed in a manner more substantial than in previous times. What was a panga-and-crude-firearms group now has a plentiful supply of basic combat weapons like AK's. Weapons of source unspecified, to no surprise.

They are actually claiming responsibility for the church bombings in Jos, Nigeria and nearby areas. They've hauled out a name, Jama'atu Ahlus-Sunnah Lidda'Awatu Wal Jihad (roughly "People Committed to the Prophet's Teachings for Propagation and Jihad"), associated with them previously. Seems Boko Haram ("non-Islamic education is a sin") wasn't good enough, I guess. One thing is clear, though: Jos is well into the midlands of Nigeria. The 2009 fighting was up north, in Bauchi. If they *are* able to move and strike outside their favored territory with any real effect, then the threat is no longer regional.

There is some doubt as to whether they actually did perpetrate the attacks, but it seems more likely that the group has just expanded its arsenal of mayhem.

Nigeria needs to step up and face this as what it really is capable of becoming: an Existential Threat to the State, at least in the North and midlands.

If that means setting aside ECOWAS commitments for a time to concentrate on the problem, then Nigeria's allies need to understand this and increase their commitments to deal with all the other (drug-trafficking; military coups; factional rebellions) problems that are plaguing West Africa right now, at least enough to buy the Nigerians some time.

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Wikipedia link (the first link in this thread) is for convenience only. Please check any cited source there for actual research.

Gbagbo demands UNOCI, LICORNE leave

It's good to want things, I'm told. Even if you can't have them.

Ivory Coast's Gbagbo tells UN, French forces to leave Ivory Coast.

ABIDJAN, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The government of Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo has told the United Nations and French peacekeeping missions to leave the country, escalating a dispute over last month's elections.

"The government demands the departure of the UNOCI and LICORNE forces in Ivory Coast and is opposed to any renewal of their mandate," said spokeswoman Jacqueline Oble, reading a statement over state television.

"UNOCI has interfered seriously in the internal affairs of Ivory Coast," she said.

UNOCI, as mentioned here previously, is the U.N. peacekeeping mission to Côte d'Ivoire; LICORNE, a.k.a. Operation Unicorn, is the French military intervention in Côte d'Ivoire that remains separate from the U.N. force and under French control.

This is looking more and more like a "forced removal" situation... forced removal of L. Gbagbo from power, that is. Most unfortunate, that. Then again...

T.I.A.

Ivory Coast now a fire zone

I've been casting warnings about how this was likely to play out for a couple of weeks now... would have loved to have been wrong... but here we go. The fighting has started.

Former rebels loyal to would-be Ivorian leader Alassane Ouattara fought a fierce battle with troops backing his rival Laurent Gbagbo on Thursday, in an apparent bid to break a siege on their Abidjan base.

A heavy exchange of fire erupted at around 11.30am (1130 GMT) and several explosions were heard in the area around the Golf Hotel, Ouattara's waterfront base in the Ivory Coast commercial capital.

For those who forgot their scorecards, L. Gbagbo is the incumbent President of Côte d'Ivoire who apparently lost the election. A. Ouattara is the supposed winner... not that the government's election commission has owned up to that possibility (*correction*) the Election Commission has actually reported Ouattara won last month's run-off election by 54% to 46%, but then Gbagbo refused to admit defeat, and the Constitutional Council then annulled some results from the north and declared Mr Gbagbo the winner... and he (Ouattara) is closely allied with the New Forces former rebel movement leader Guillaume Soro. It was G. Soro' men that made the attempt against the Forces armées nationales de Côte d'Ivoire (FANCI; the National Army) encirclement, and pulled back after an hour and a half of trying.

You might ask "Where are the UNOCI (U.N. peacekeepers) in all this?"

...well, other than being the doughnut between Ouattara and company inside the Golf Hotel grounds and the National Army surrounding them, it isn't really clear. Rioting has broken out over much of the city of Abidjan, but that seems to be a "Chinese Biathlon" (the Army does the shooting; the demonstrators do the running. cf. Tian'anmen Square, 1989). So much for seeing to local order, and all that.

There is going to need to be a bit of re-enforcement required for UNOCI to be able to do much more than guard its bases if this continues to spiral out of control. That's going to mean not just more money (it is already budgeted at nearly US$500 million for this year to keep roughly 7,500 troops and 1,300 police in country)... it means that somebody with significant logistical and combat power is probably going to have to step in. I'm not at all sure that ECOWAS (West African community; Nigerian-led forces) can manage that.

That's another thing I'd love to wrong about, by the way.

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More details on this from the BBC. (and the source of the *correction*, above)

Sunday Morning Push

Indeed, another Sunday has come.

((wave; smile))

So, here's your Sunday Open Comments Thread.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

p.s. A special 'welcome back' to Susan!

p.s. (2) Oh, and just to rub it in a bit, from last week's Sunday Push and an Open thread before: I suggested that the election in Cote d'Ivoire was worthy of discussion. Well... things are *still* going sideways there and now it has become a problem involving adjacent countries as well. Worth your time to read up on it, folks.