Fausta on Lugo

H/T to CompHyp friend Fausta Wertz.

Lugo will be spending more time with his families.

Heh.

For those not following this, the administration of ex-President Lugo of Paraguay was one of the more distant of the ALBA-linked regimes in Latin America. Clipping his wings is another step in the roll-back of Chavista-inspired misgovernment across the continent.

I hope the people of Paraguay get a fairer hearing than Honduras got when M. Zelaya was taken down.

Post-Hugo?

For now, this thread is a placeholder as I'm working up some things on the infighting amongst the Bolivarian Socialists... jockeying for position in the soon-to-be Post-Hugo political universe in Venezuela.

Thing is, right now, the rumors that can be discounted as noise vastly outnumber the few insights that can be gleaned.

But let's just say that it is past time to be watching for troop recall-to-barracks orders and any sudden movements by factions loyal to one or another of the players...

...and no bets at all on the upcoming election for the presidency actually coming to pass.

Stay tuned.

Aponte

In an effort to both get back to talking about things 'Venezuela' here at CompHyp, what with the upcoming Presidential election (at least on paper) an opportunity to bring down the House of Hugo, here's a story worth your attention.

From Daniel at Venezuela News and Views:
Former Justice Aponte Aponte has fled the country after being forced out of office by the Chavistas, is apparently in the care of the US DEA, and is rumored to have started telling tales of the official corruption and narcotrafficking... and supposedly has brought out some evidence.

Daniel has a little more, for readers who understand Spanish. Aponte telling his tale to the media.

Back in February, Roger F. Noriega had this article on a potential narco-coup in Venezuela. Given the faction-splitting that has been going on inside the Chavista leadership, it all brings to mind a possible explanation as to how the heck Aponte could get out of the country, and with any meaningfully damaging documents to prove his claims...

...he got out because someone wanted him to get out.

So here is today's mystery question: Who has the most to gain of the Chavistas-in-waiting (waiting for Hugo to pass on) by Aponte bringing down international damnation upon those who are getting rich skimming (and running) the narcotrafficking through Venezuela?

Another back door

O. Reich and E. Vazquez on How Ecuador's immigration policy helps al Qaeda.

Obviously, not just AQ. What this really is the exit point of the Iran-Venezuela-Ecuador and Dubai-Russia-Cuba-Ecuador pipelines... and the U.S.A. still trivially accessible from Ecuador. Here's the money quote:

While there is no evidence to show that the Correa government established the policy of "open borders" in an effort to attract criminal organizations, that has been the result.

The only thing worse, from a regional security point of view, than having a failed state as a neighbor is having one that is willfully aiding the enemies of civilization. Time to close those tunnels, indeed.

...and Now.

There is serious evidence that between envy at other's success and their traditional bullheadedness, the Argies (as a Nation-State) haven't learned their lesson.

Besides the fact that the persistence of any Argentine claim to the Falkland Islands is only slightly less defensible or precedent-based than the (*former*) Indonesian claim to Timor Leste (East Timor)...

...I'll defend that in detail, if you'd like. Remember, I'm as revanchist as they come *when there is an actual historical claim to territory*, I'll gladly go chapter-and-verse on why this "claim" is Nationalist claptrap and has been since Argentina managed by some grace of heaven to liberate itself from the Spanish Empire...

...anyway besides that, the fact is they tried aggression and ended up with all the moral justification for their position that Saddam Hussein had when his army was sitting in Kuwait. And then they got what was coming to them, even without an Article 5 NATO intervention or a UNSC authorization of force. Just little 'ol tired Britain (and a tiny handful of help) gave them just what they deserved and frankly they got off lightly with the only reprisal outside the campaign on the islands was the sinking of the General Belgrano... Yes, that's heartless of me to say so. Doesn't change the fact that had the Argentines pulled a stunt like that on a U.S. possession they would have been picking up the pieces of every airplane, rowboat and army barracks from Buenos Aires to Tierra del Fuego. Don't ask what Ivan would have done to them had it been their collection of turf and sheep.

But these days, Argentina (again, the Nation-State, not necessarily the ordinary citizen) seems intent on playing again... at least politically. With a steady growth in GDP for the islands and the recent petroleum exploration success, Falklands is on its way to returning the favor to the homeland for all the lives and all the years defending the place. Argentina, on the other hand, remains mired in one of the longest and ugliest economic collapses of the last century, vastly worse and longer lived than the current unpleasantness in the U.S.A. and Europe. The current Argie management, the regime of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (Yes, she married her way into politics. It's a local tradition after all.) is part patron and part client of Hugo Chavez' schemes of anti-just-about-anyone-halfway-decent Gangster Totalitarianism Bolivarian Socialism, and living up to that means having enough ego and envy to parade around making threats against anyone that one might have a grudge against. Okay, fine. Argies are pretty good at grudge-holding, but that still doesn't make any sense of schemes and plots that require rather more ability (and weapons) than they have. On the other hand, that does fit Hugo's M.O. pretty well... big talk but really not capable of beating up on anyone three weight-classes down.

The U.K. side of things has been steady and measured (and more than Cristina and her political henchlings deserve, frankly). With the construction and constant operation of RAF Mount Pleasant, and a fairly good plan for rapid re-enforcement, there is also the stick available in case calm words and a few carrots don't keep the peace. None the less, it pays to be prepared.

In the words of Sara Jones (widow of Lt Col Herbert 'H' Jones VC OBE, 2PARA ):

"We stood up for what we believed in. We didn’t like to see a small country overrun by somebody who had very little claim to it."

She told The Daily Telegraph: "The islanders have always been fiercely British and want to stay that way. I would like to believe that we would, if we could, do it again."

***

If you've not heard of 'H' before, this is of marginal value in telling about the man.

caveat: this and the Wikipedia links above are only for general reference. Please check all actual citations.

Housley on Hiz'b at the border

Recommended reading (and viewing, of the video segment):

CompHyp friend and FOXNews reporter Adam Housley has this report on Hiz'ballah (Hezbollah) smuggling activities in Mexico targeting access to the U.S.A.

It's a good report, and one that covers a topic with several facets (Narco, anti-Americanism, GWOT). Yes, they really are using bases in Venezuela and contacts in Nicaragua and Mexico to try and get to you...

Sunday Evening Push

OK... who put Monday directly after Wednesday last week...?

((grin))

It has been one of those weekends that looks a whole lot like the work week here. Hope yours went better.

Here's your Open thread for Sunday, just in case you've something to say about it. ...Or about all the other things happening out there in the wide world.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

Here are some brief links of things passed over the last couple of days:

Switzerland continues to show remarkable good sense on matters of a free people maintaining arms.

A series of rounds of hostage releases in Colombia has freed four of the many, many hostages of the FARC. I'd like to say it is the beginning of freedom for all the kidnapped... but it likely is not. A one-off or just a step forward.

Meanwhile, fan favorite Hugo Chavez continues to make a mockery of himself. Just for reference sake... Chavez couldn't carry Hosni Mubarak's briefcase. Sure would be nice if the people of Venezuela were a little more motivated to show him the door after seeing how things went in Egypt, though.

Ayman Nour of Egypt's al-Glad (Tomorrow Party) should have more sense than to be saying things like this, especially in the media. Unless, of course, he is proposing returning Sinai to Israel... (Boy, that wouldn't make it a minute in the court of public opinion, but again, it sure would be nice.)

They are the same.

Just in case you ever considered correct the idea that The State, any State really, can be trusted with an unbridled authority over assigning property rights:

This (video feed) is really the same...

...as this.

There really no functional difference.

Frédéric Bastiat probably said it best: "property is value".

When you see a State asserting that it is the sole or preeminent allocator of property, what that State is really saying is that they assign control of value.

No further explanation of the resulting Kleptocracy should be required.

No further explanation as to why this conduct should *always* be opposed should be required either.

Surprisingly elegant

My, my... a surprisingly elegant move by a U.S. Department of State that has spent almost the 2 years demonstrating the dictionary citation of "Ham-Handed"...

Washington has revoked the visa of the Venezuelan ambassador to the US, the US state department has said.

Oh, that's good.

Forgive me; I've left out the explanation.

The U.S.A. and Venezuela have lacked Ambassadorial-level relations since summer at the fault of Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez. The U.S. Amb E&P, Patrick Duddy, got pitched in 2008 and went back in July of 2009, but now he's done. His replacement was to be Larry Palmer... but that hasn't settled at all well with Hugo. Chávez has now walked away from the invitation to Palmer and has even let a challenge to the U.S. to cut diplomatic relations.

Well, that isn't what happened.

The Embassy is open, and operating as normally as possible under the Chargé d'Affaires.

The Venezuelan representation in Washington D.C. now gets its chance to find out how well they operate under the same conditions:

Washington has revoked the visa of the Venezuelan ambassador to the US, the US state department has said.

Venezuela's Ambassador to the U.S., Bernardo Alvarez Herrera, was outside the U.S. at the time. He's not been expelled... he just can't come in.

Now, if Hugo would like to discuss matters, things are on an equal footing.

...and if he doesn't want to resolve this, then the hot potato of declaring a diplomatic breach is back in *his* hands.

Yes, it is petty gamesmanship. Much of diplomacy is just that.

But it *might* just get Ambassador-select Larry Palmer his posting.

State department spokesman Mark Toner said Caracas had only itself to blame.

"We said there would be consequences when the Venezuelan government rescinded agreement regarding our nominee, Larry Palmer. We have taken appropriate, proportional and reciprocal action," he said in an emailed statement.

Surprisingly elegant.

***

Addenda: Fausta has a thread on this and links to several other parts of the story. Also, look at this item from Daniel at Venezuela News and Views for his take on the gamesmanship going on... on both sides.

Boa vinda to readers from O Insurgente and thank you for linking here.

It just gets worse

...for the people of Venezuela, and anyone else within the grasp of Hugo's desire.

I've recently mentioned just how bad it is as a general statement; now consider some of the details:

President Hugo Chávez got his 'Enabling Law' and a package of Organic Laws (a class of legislation second only to Constitutional Amendments in the Venezuelan system) out of the lame-duck session of the National Assembly (flat-out undermining the results of the last election). He's got rule-by-decree for the next eighteen months.

Changing political parties, once elected to the Assembly, is now functionally illegal, as the Representative is disqualified from office upon voting outside the party manifesto under which they were elected.

Land seizures are continuing, and accelerating. The massive nationalization of 47 major agricultural properties in Sur del Lago (South Lake Maracaibo district) is underway and only a few of the protests seem to slow the effort.

The mayhem being committed on the rest of the economy, from media to internet to financial institutions and on and on... is that consolidation of absolute authority in the ruling regime that always brings disaster but usually allows a fair number of apparatchiks to get really rich before the fall.

...and they are just getting up to speed.

Daniel at Venezuela News and Views has a summary of the latest stages of this de facto autogolpe.

It's going to get worse.

Chavez digs in

like a tick on a dog.

Here's a summary from Fausta on the whole matter.

Fausta, being a Friend-of-CompHyp, and I recently had a side discussion on Hugo's plans; one matter that came up is that he has packed the military command just as he has packed the Tribunal Supremo de Justicia (TSJ; the Supreme Court).

It's going to take one heck of a crowbar to pry him out any time in the foreseeable future.

Where the ETA is welcomed in the government

More evidence of terrorist-supporting villainy in Venezuela:

in addition to Arturo Cubillas, other six ETA members work in the government.

Diego Arria, a former minister of Information and Tourism and former Venezuelan Ambassador to the United Nations, said on Monday in Madrid that in addition to Arturo Cubillas, other six ETA members who were deported to Venezuela in 1989 work in the government led by Hugo Chávez.

Arria testified before the Spanish National Court Judge Eloy Velasco, who is investigating the alleged links between Basque terrorist group ETA and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and their presence in Venezuela.

There is a certain "serves you right" to Spain about the origin of this affair; Having chosen to deport ETA terrs rather than incarcerate them, it should surprise no one that they found a patron when Hugo Chávez came into power and joined up.

This Spanish investigation may well lead to one good outcome, however. If some degree of certainty finally connects the ETA, the FARC and the Chávez regime, that would be one step closer to pinning the "State Sponsor of Terrorism" label on Hugo's Venezuela... with all the legal baggage that carries with it.

None too soon, in my opinion.

You know them by who they associate with.

So, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is:

...a property-seizing Statist, a man that sees himself *as* the State?

...an evangelical revolutionary whose passion occasionally masks his brutal madness?

...an educational theorist with an ugly history?

...a man consumed with his own destiny and fixated upon demonizing the United States?

...a true believer in the Way, as defined by the latest Trotskyist fashion?

...or just another incarnation of El Jefe?

Maybe all of the above, or worse.

Wait... what do you mean you don't know who Alan Woods is?

You should. *Here's why*.

More land seizures

Here's the story, minus the identifying marks for now:

As part of its policy to seize and occupy agricultural lands, the **** government plans to seize some 450,000 hectares of lands (1,111,974 acres) in 2011, said **** ***, the Vice Minister of Agroproductive Circuits, Ministry of Agriculture and Lands (MAT). The ministry's budget includes (currency name) 17.9 billion (USD 4.16 billion) to seize lands.

The Executive Office told the National Assembly's Committee on Finance that ever since the Law on Lands became effective, **** authorities have seized 3 million hectares, while other 14.1 million hectares have been duly legalized.

Sound familiar?

Sure is a big budget there. Given the lack of meaningful compensation for many of the seizures, there sure is a lot of the local currency floating around to reward friends-of-the-authorities, isn't there?

Any guess as to where this is happening?

Because after all, in a Socialist Worker's Paradise, property is only held by the State... if they let you "own" it, it is merely an illusion that comes undone whenever the State decides you "don't".

Here's your answer as to where, this time: *link*

Oh and by the way, between the 30% inflation rate and the estimated 15% devaluation coming in 2011 for said local currency, if one was lucky enough to actually get compensated for a land seizure, your compensation will next year be worth 1/2 of what it is now... and with the currency controls, good luck getting any of it changed into a hard currency.

An economy built on fraudulent valuation and State compulsion. Another great nation brought down by kleptocratic leaders.

How many more times does this lesson need to be taught?

Three places to watch - November edition

There are always places out there hanging on the edge of conflict. Here at CompHyp, I've made it a habit in the past to point them out as the first open-sources (usually minor media reports) come out about them. This is by no means exhaustive, but for now let's live up to that tradition again with Three Places to Watch:

1) Sudan ~ It is voter registration time as of today for the national devolution referendum. This almost didn't happen, but a last minute deal seems to have kept the door open. For the next 17 days registration will compile voter lists all through Sudan that will be used for the 9.January 2011 vote. But to get to this point several side deals have been cut; the matter of contesting the demarcation of Abyei region will be treated with negotiation between the al-Bashir regime (the de jure government; represents the 'North') and the SPLM autonomous area government (the opposition separatists; the 'South') and that is just a recipe for a sellout done out of the media's view. There have also been some (upon examination) absurd claims of military build-ups and border fights along the separation line between North and South this weekend. That being what it is, the real risk is that there *will* be a military build-up as both sides think that a vote in favor of Southern secession will come. So put this on your watch list, but do be careful of breathless panic stories that could be the product of the flame-fanning on both sides.

2) Lebanon ~ The investigation into the Hariri assassination is coming to a close, and it looks like Hezbollah (Hizb' Allah; Party of God; the Iranian-sponsored faction of terrorist and Israel-attacking infamy) is going to get indictments from the Special Tribunal laid on several of their leadership. Hezbollah has angrily denounced that possibility, and says they will not comply. The last time they had a bout of 'non-compliance' they damn near restarted the Lebanese Civil War. If the indictments *are* upon leadership elements of Hezbollah, and there is a will by the State to try and enforce them, Hezbollah will likely start a fight. With someone. Plan for the worst there.

3) Nicaragua ~ Specifically, the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border violation along the San Juan River by Nicaraguan military elements. This is happening now. No, it isn't just a Google Maps error. It is claim jumping of the first order. The problem is made worse by the obvious contempt held by the Nicaraguan military for the Costa Rican Fuerza Pública (Public Force; Police with some paramilitary capability; Costa Rica has no regular army). Costa Rica also has depended in the past on the OAS to provide some amount of diplomatic protection for their interests, but that isn't going to happen if this matter is left in the hands of the current ALBA-influenced leadership at the OAS. Nicaragua under Ortega is proving to be another example that friends-of-Hugo are really bad neighbors. Oddly enough, this is also related to Iranian gamesmanship as they've got interests in their new Atlantic-side port project in Nicaragua and are in bed with the ALBA Chavistas. Potentially a really ugly situation.

Watching Venezuela

There are all sorts of reports coming in off social networks and sources that today (the 4th) is going to be another big round of protests against the Chavez regime.

A more deserving target is hard to imagine:

Besides the mismanagement of the entire utility system of the country, and all the dictatorial moves against the media and public discourse...

Besides the fact that the economy as a whole is gasping and wheezing...

Besides land seizures that make Venezuela a copy of Mugabe's Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) complete with the land taken "in the name of reform" being given to members of the party elite...

Besides all the senseless sabre-rattling against threats imagined...

... besides all that, there is the very real perception that Hugo Chavez is just the front man for the Cuban Government. The latest example being held up about that being the appointment of Ramiro Valdés Menéndez of Cuba as an advisor to Chavez... supposedly as a technology expert there to help solve the electrical utility problems. That would be *this* Ramiro Valdés Menéndez.

This is simply madness.

The people of Venezuela know it, too.

The only questions are:

...will they go out in the streets against the guns of the regime and its militia?

...and if they do, will the regular Army stand with the regime or with the people?

***

More on this as word comes in.

Addenda:
I didn't mention it above, but the significance of the day is that Feb. 4th 1992 is the date of Hugo-and-friends failed attempted military coup against the Carlos Andres Perez government... so for his team, this is an honored day...

Fausta's podcast is all about this, today. As always, I recommend it.

***

New Venezuelan Defense Minister : UPDATED

On Saturday, now-former- Vice-President and Minister of Defense Ramón Carrizález *and* his wife, Minister of Environment Yubirí Ortega, are said to have resigned for "personal reasons". Now, word of his official replacement at Defense has come out: it is General-in-Chief Carlos Mata Figueroa, formerly chief of the Operational Strategic Command.

This should get some ears to perk up, as R. Carrizález is by repute a stauch partisan of Diosdado Cabello, who is the man who almost certainly has gained the most by being loyal to Hugo Chávez... and his replacement C. Mata Figueroa is said by sources to be solid with the Bolivarian Revolution... so no shakeup there...

Any bets on what the "personal reasons" were?

Here's one... caveat: it's a rumor at this point:

Me dijeron que renunciaron porque van a nombrar a 4 cubanos generales de la FAN, Amanecera y veremos si los nombran y si los milimaricones se dejan.

According to this source, the regime will appoint 4 Cubans as Generals in the Venezuelan Armed Forces. Let's say that isn't going over well in some quarters, and it could explain the resignation. By not well, I mean it is garnering reactions like this:

"TRAICIÓN A LA PATRIA."

"Treason to the nation." ~ if that perception is widespread in the military... and it well may be... this could be the last straw.

More on this as confirmation and alternate sources come in.

***

Update 27.January

from an article at La Nueva Cuba, an independent Cuban internet daily published through Independent Press Infogroup. (background on them, here.) Key point:

La Habana quiere imponer a Caracas una agenda bien estructurada de medidas destinadas a "garantizar y asegurar la estabilidad y permanencia del régimen bolivariano en el poder.
Los raulistas no confían en la lealtad de los altos mandos venezolanos y buscan reemplazarlos paulatinamente con hombres que gocen del visto bueno de los generales-empresarios, el verdadero grupo de poder en la Isla caribeña.
Una de las exigencias cubanas, considerada el "detonante" de la crisis, es la de que a cuatro coroneles cubanos estacionados en Venezuela, se les conceda de inmediato la nacionalidad venezolana y que los mismos sean promovidos al grado de generales de brigada y nombrados como jefes de unidades élites del ejército venezolano.

They read the situation as a larger plot with Cuba having already in country (Venezuela) four Cuban officers of the rank of Colonel, just parked. The officers would be granted Venezuelan nationality and placed in command of critical brigade formations of the Venezuelan Army to guarantee the control of the elite formations.

((sarcasm))
Anyone else seeing a problem with this besides me?
((/sarcasm))

RCTV Internacional cut off

In one of those lovely moments of utter transparency by the Chavez administration in Venezuela...

During a press conference, Conatel's director (*Minister of Housing and Habitat and director of the National Telecommunications Commission (Conatel), Diosdado Cabello) said that 105 national TV channels submitted the documentation and only 24 met the requirements.

Those 24 TV channels, among them RCTV Internacional, were considered PNA. Other 81 TV channels, which did not submit any documentation, were also considered PNA, because "they are automatically considered (according to the provision) national audiovisual production (*PNA)," Cabello said.

24+81... that's...

Whether they applied for exemption as private channels, or not, they were *all* found to be national assets. These are all cable or satellite providers (open broadcast has long been presumed not just commons, but state property) so this is all about regulating content on *any* media outlet. In fact, criminalizing media activity has become the norm in all the Bolivarian Socialist states... Correa's Ecuador may well be worse off than Venezuela after their new laws late last year.

This little exercise in state-control was pulled off on 23 de enero (January 23rd), which happens to be a rather significant date in Venezuelan history...

Lots on all of this, and the 23dE marches, at Venezuela News and Views.

***

Today's fun fact on what commenter 'Will' calls Hugo Chavez's desire to "...travel Mugabe's road..." : El Universal reports in their story on 2009 economic activity that the Executive Office has seized 559 ranches and 12 agro-businesses. You can just guess who was entrusted to administer them 'for the state', can't you?

Honduras: ALBA out; Zelaya out too?

This is half a catch-up-report for an item that came in while I was not here, but there's a report of a new twist to it all as well.

Back on January 13th, Honduras withdrew from ALBA, the "Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America" which serves as Hugo Chavez & Company's little pocket version of the Warsaw Pact. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

As long as we are talking of taking out the trash, it would be negligent to overlook this breaking (but not yet widely acknowledged... so believe it when you see it happen) item: The Presidential Spokesman of the Dominican Republic says a deal was signed on Wednesday to guarantee a safe-passage to exile for professional nuisance and former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, to be allowed on 28 January. That would be the day after the inauguration of Porfirio Lobo as President. Apparently the terms are that Dominican President Leonel Fernandez will come escort M. Zelaya from his tin-foil-lined room in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa as a "guest of the Dominican Republic".

I can't say this is terribly pleasing, if it is even going to happen, because...

(1) it puts Zelaya out of reach of prosecution *again*, which likely means he'll never be asked all those really unpleasant questions about treason, narco-trafficking, and looting the banks, and

(2) the last time he was exiled, it worked out so well. (( <-- sarcasm ))

Seriously, this man is a menace to Honduras as long as he has any liberty of action. He's kept his foreign team out beating the drums of insurrection against the Honduran state and his agitator-in-chief Patricia Rodas has been doing the Venezuela and satellite-states circuit keeping the Chavez-Zelaya link going...

...this will not end well if Zelaya is available to play the Quisling role for the Chavistas in the future.

Chavrolet

No, that's not a typo. It is what you get when Hugo Chavez demands that the automobile manufacturers of Venezuela (at least the major foreign ones) "...share their technology with local businesses or leave the country."

If the demand isn't met, he said: "I invite you to pack up your belongings and leave. I'll bring in the Russians, the Belorusians, the Chinese."

Let's just say that isn't going over well here in Japan, and I'll take the flyer that the labor unions in Venezuela dependent upon jobs with foreign auto manufacturers aren't too thrilled either.

I've always wondered what would happen if the unions turned en-masse against the Chavistas. At this rate, we may all get to find that out.