Told you so (diplomatic appointments edition)

Long time readers of CompHyp may vaguely recall that this author was to-say-the-least unimpressed with the appointment of J. Scott Gration as the American (Obama Administration) Special Envoy to Sudan.

Here's a little reminder from back in 2009 as to how deserved that lack of regard was: Gration gets the proper treatment.

Well, low and behold, the years go by... Gration got a 'promotion' to a regular ambassadorship (to Kenya)... and...

Close Obama ally rated worst ambassador in the State Department.

Read the whole thing, please.

Then for those reading who have any say in such matters... let's not be doing this again, shall we?

Coup; Counter-coup; Mutiny

Time for your T.I.A. of the day, all from the BBC:

Guinea-Bissau

Coup still in slow-motion; detained political leaders released last weekend, and; ECOWAS gets around to imposing sanctions:

West African regional bloc Ecowas has imposed targeted sanctions on Guinea-Bissau's military junta after talks to restore civilian rule broke down.

Coup leader General Antonio Indjai "is not willing to negotiate and clearly prefers to face the consequences," an Ecowas statement said.

Mali

The Junta still holds, but have lost the entire north and northeast of the country to the Tuareg insurgency they were supposed to be fighting; former President Toure got away and fled the country; the Junta supposedly yielded power to an interim government on 12.April, but then went on doing Junta-things; ECOWAS did lay sanctions on the Junta and recognized instead the appointment of Dioncounda Traore as an interim President, and; now the Junta is on day two of fighting off a counter-coup:

Shooting has been heard for a second day in Mali's capital, despite the junta saying it had reasserted control after an attempt to overthrow it.

Most of the gunfire came from a military camp housing loyalists of ousted President Amadou Toumani Toure, who tried to stage an uprising.

D.R.Congo

The Kivu regions in the east, many times a topic here at CompHyp, remain a fertile ground for all the bad things left over from the Congo War(s); In 2009 the national government made terms with one of the worst of the local warlords, Bosco Ntaganda, going so far as to intergrate his forces into the national army and make him a General; Oddly, they overlooked his 2006 indictment by the ICC for war crimes and his role in the 2008 massacre at Kiwanji; He's now led a mutiny of troops and set out as a warlord once again, apparently fairly successfully:

Troops loyal to Bosco Ntaganda, wanted by the International Criminal Court, have taken two towns in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

A BBC reporter in the area says thousands of people are fleeing the fierce fighting towards nearby Goma.

Hundreds of heavily armed soldiers loyal to Gen Ntaganda recently defected from the Congolese army.

Things aren't exactly getting better, are they?

and anyone else (2)

U.S. Embassy in Kenya has notified U.S. nationals of "a possible attack on Nairobi hotels and prominent Kenyan government buildings".

The BBC has the report here with some context, but nothing more than what regular CompHyp readers already know.

Being that (1) the possible target list is of places commonly visited by most any foreigner in the city, (2) the likely attacker would be al-Shabaab, and (3) previous attacks have been by grenade and car bomb, let's expand this to a Travel Advisory for anyone there or going there in the near future.

Old and New

...media, that is.

As we do mostly World Affairs here, both of these mentioned are related to that.

First, an example of the good a major network can do by sending (or allowing to go on their own) a well-known journalist (or reporter, or presenter) out to cover an out-of-way and frankly difficult story:

Greta Van Sustren in the Nuba Mountains. Lots of related posts up and down her 'blog.

h/t to CompHyp friend Adam Housley (who, like GVS, is at FOXNews)

and...

Then, an absolutely wonderful telling of the good done by New Media assets... individuals or acting in concert... to help a cause succeed. 'Fighting Keyboardists' if you will, but not in model of the old (joking about) 'Chairborne Infantry'. Again, these are people who either got out there or got connected with those out there and provided invaluable information support:

People Power 2.0, How civilians helped win the Libyan information war.

Over the years we've seen some amazing individual efforts by 'bloggers working and communicating with efforts far from home to try and do some good. Jane Novak's awesome efforts about Yemen over the years come to mind (although she's been off-line this last month; hope she is well). The cooperation we got here at CompHyp from other folks during the Honduras autogolpe was another example.

With a bit of luck, we'll be doing more for the good, soon.

Now it is official

Earlier in the week here at CompHyp there was a thread titled Declaration in all but name.

Now it is official.

Sudan declares war on South Sudan:

Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, Thursday declared war on South Sudan, vowing to topple its government.

We've seen some similar conflicts recently; Ethiopia-Eritrea have a persistent border conflict, but... that's not being fought over a series of oil fields that are *vital* to the wealth of both parties.

This fight is going to be ugly.

Declaration in all but name

Declaration of War, that is.

The BBC reports Sudan has declared South Sudan an enemy state.

Sudanese MPs have voted unanimously to brand South Sudan "an enemy".

"The government of South Sudan is an enemy and all Sudanese state agencies have to treat her accordingly," the resolution said.

A Khartoum information ministry official told the BBC the move was linked to South Sudan's seizure last week of the Heglig oil field.

The South had accused Sudan of launching attacks on its territory from the frontier oil field.

UPI has a similar report. Scheduled peace talks as part of the border demarcation requirements and the 2005 agreement that led to South Sudan's independence have been cancelled.

The only question at this point is whether either nation has the means to actually prosecute a war, and over how wide a front.

Sudan repeatedly attacks South Sudan

So much for the (paraphrase) "brotherly separation" upon South Sudan's independence...

At least five separate incidents of crossborder fire since Monday by the Sudan Army and Air Force targeting everything from Southern troop positions and camps to oil fields.

The al-Bashir regime continues to demonstrate just how worthless agreements with them are, whether regarding internal (Darfur, Kordofan, Blue Nile) or external (South Sudan) issues. Well, unless you are PRChina and the agreement is about buying oil... or selling guns...

From containment to reduction

At extraordinary financial cost and amidst never-ending political second-guessing, the "answer" to the problem of the Somalia Pirates has been almost entirely defensive; containment with a little bit of armed resistance (by placing armed contingents aboard some merchant shipping in the region). Both worked, to some extent. Both also failed in that they rarely if ever actually reduced the problem.

Maybe, just maybe, that is about to change:

The European Union has agreed to expand its mission against Somali pirates, by allowing military forces to attack land targets as well as those at sea.

In a two-year extension of its mission, EU defence ministers agreed warships could target boats and fuel dumps.

There are still the usual weak-hand gestures of politicians stating the RoE is "to avoid harming people", though, so how this goes in practice remains to be seen. Blowing up pirate boats and fuel supplies, and placing an effective blockade on pirate vessel departures may be enough to take the profit out of piracy... but the only usually effective answer is to reduce the number of pirates. Whether that happens by disincentive or by demise is of little importance. It wouldn't hurt to cap off interdict and arrest the money-men supplying the pirates either...

So let's call this a step from containment to reduction... a step in the right direction.

***

Here's Eagle1's take on the same. He started his say late yesterday and updated it to include more about the EU authorization.

While you might have been watching

While you might have been watching things about the latest twists and turns in Libya (and *yes*, while I like my coffee as-intended I do prefer my Libya de-Qaddafinated), there is another story out there that hasn't been getting the 24/7 media treatment the last couple of days like the End of Moammar has been getting:

Are you aware that Kenya has had quite enough of al-Shabaab and related Somali thuggery raiding the Dadaab refugee camp, kidnapping aid workers and snatching tourists off the Kenyan coastal islands, and generally fomenting mayhem in and against Kenya?

The Kenyan armed forces are now *in* the Trans-Juba region of southern Somalia, and itching for a fight. Back at home, Kenyan internal security services are to root-out the al-Shabaab operations in Nairobi.

This is the largest intervention in Somalia since the Ethiopian military pulled out of (most of) Somalia after their intervention... which crushed the Islamic Courts movement and did give the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia a little breathing room, but then took their eyes off the prize as the remnants of the Islamic Courts and their al-Qaeda affiliates reformed as al-Shabaab...

Here's hoping that the Kenyan forces chose a manageable portion of goals to achieve, and get busy on achieving them. It does look like their plans are of limited scope and do-able from a capacity point of view, but it remains to be seen when al-Shabaab chooses to stand and fight (perhaps at the town of Afmadow) how well the Kenyan forces will hold together.

A supposedly unrelated move in Mogadishu by the African Union (AU) force there to clear the last southern district of the city of al-Shabaab troops has gone off on schedule and on objective, but reports of heavy AU casualties are circulating. Even discounting any claims by al-Shabaab (which *will* be ludicrously overstated), it may well have been a rough go for the AU forces.

Since you likely won't see much about this on the network news, here is the go-to link for Africa news if you'd prefer more than what the BBC has offered. Specifically, here are the links to Kenya news and Somalia news. Caveat: You'd best know something about the newspapers cited to know any biases. I can only recommend that you do a little Wiki-searching or Source-Watching to see what repute any given paper is generally held in. No time to be teaching a class on East African mass media right now; my regrets.

Abyei burns

It looks like al-Bashir's rump-Sudan isn't waiting for any further possibilities of losing more territory by popular secession:

The Sudanese town of Abyei has been set on fire, with gunmen looting property, the UN says.

The town and surrounding area are claimed by both Khartoum and by South Sudan, set to become independent in July. The town was captured at the weekend by northern troops.

Captured, after what is looking more and more like a Gleiwitz Incident-style excuse for Northern reoccupation.

Then, they turned loose the thugs.

Some 20,000 people, almost the whole population of the town, had fled, aid agency Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) told the BBC.

If the North-aligned tribal raiders (mostly Arab Misseriya) have their way about it, there won't be much if anything for the expelled (mostly Dinka Ngok) residents to come back to.

The U.N. mission in Sudan (UNMIS) has issued their customary sternly-worded rebuke.

And in other stories...

...as they say in the news business when they gloss over a bunch of other reports that didn't make the editor's cut for airtime, here are some of the stories you've likely missed with all the focus being on the Arab world and certain countries' economic issues (all links below courtesy the fabulous AlertNet):

Madagascar: New road map can end Madagascar leadership row - SADC. I'll believe it when it works. This is, what?, power-sharing plan number six or so?

Congo: Gunmen attack airport in Congo's copper capital. No, not in the Kivus. This was down in Lubumbashi in Katanga Province; historically a hot spot for trouble, but recently the large security presence for the mining industry made it a pretty quiet place. That may not be holding, though.

Kenya: FACTBOX-Kenyan cabinet rocked by Kibaki's judicial nominations. Further evidence that the Kibaki-Odinga powersharing agreement is getting all the credence paid to it by the stronger party that usually happens in such cases... in other words, none to speak of. This will be a big problem if a constitutional crisis takes full form before the elections scheduled for next year.

and over in Southeast Asia...

Thailand / Cambodia: Thai, Cambodian troops in deadly clash near temple. Again. I've covered this dispute here at CompHyp before at some length, and it is still an open risk of major conflict between the two countries. The Royal Thai Army spokesman says it looks to have been a misunderstanding that led to the exchange of fire, and then an artillery duel, and that:

"There is no point in fighting because it could escalate and damage relations... We don't want that."

No kidding... especially when such an incident happens during a meeting in Cambodia between the Foreign Ministers of the two nations. Well, now they've really got something to talk about.


More stories, and more details on things, as time allows.

Sunday Morning Push

First up, the situation in Egypt is still one of teetering on the edge of disaster...

The Army hasn't taken a pivotal role... yet...

There is *no* moderate opposition organization to speak of...

...and You Know Who is just itching for an opportunity and enough popular outrage against the government to be able to step in and "lead". Bad. Very Bad. We're looking at HAMAS with F-16's, if that happens.


Then, on another matter entirely, you might want to know that the first official numbers on South Sudan's Independence are coming in... and they are stunning. People are literally dancing in the streets of Juba.


So now it's your turn. Here's your Open thread for Sunday.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

Sunday Morning Push

It's been a very good week here, both 'blogging and working, thanks to the efforts of some very good friends. I remain grateful to you, ladies and gentlemen.

Following up some earlier threads here at CompHyp:

The Royal Malaysian Navy made it two-for-two this week against the pirates of Somalia with a successful interception and a lively shooting match that bagged all the attackers.

The Central Bank of West Africa will have a new chief, and that cuts off another point of support for de facto President L. Gbagbo of Côte d'Ivoire. He may yet be pushed out of power without a military intervention, but nothing is resolved yet.

The commentary here on American B. Rhodes' ill-considered remarks to P.R. Chinese media about the Senkaku Islands matter has been picked up in the 'blogosphere. Special thanks again to Professor Jacobson at Legal Insurrection for making it the Post of the Day there.


So now it's your turn. Here's your Open thread for Sunday.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

This is how soup is done.

An impressive demonstration of resolve and capability by the ROK Naval forces successfully prevented a pirate raid (18.Jan) presumably killing the pirate raiders, and then rescued the M/V Samho Jewelry from pirate control (today), killing eight pirates and capturing five alive for arrest.

All 21 crew members were rescued, although one suffered a non-lifethreatening gunshot at the hands of the pirates.

Yonhap report on the raid.

Yonhap timeline on the events.

Reuters report on the raid.

Kyoudou wire service report on the raid.

This operation, from beginning to end, is how it should be done.

Bravo.

Time to count up.

The polls for the independence referendum in South Sudan are now closed, and things look very promising for independence.

Now, it is time to count up, make things official, and get a formal announcement out by the agreed 15.February date.

There will be a lot to do for the new nation, and they will need a lot of assistance to do it all, but there is real hope for liberty.

Stories to watch the next few days

Here's a by-no-means-all-inclusive alert. I've picked out three stories happening now that all have major international impact:

Lebanon has lost its government over the soon-to-be-announced Hariri Assassination indictments. As always, look for analysis to Michael J. Totten on matters in Lebanon, and look to Ya Libnan for your Lebanese news source.

North Africa beats East Africa to the punch on riots threatening the regime. Tunisia has declared a State of Emergency. Yes, there is still an open dispute in Tanzania as well, but it hasn't reached this level yet. Then again, those protests are more recent in origin.

Sudan is still in the process of the referendum on South Sudan Independence. The good news is that the required 60% of the electorate threshold for ratifying the result has been passed, and the Independence platform seems almost assured of carrying, but the district of Abyei isn't part of the territory to be liberated by the vote; its status won't be decided until later and then supposedly by negotiations. That and the tribal divisions in the region are all the invitation North Sudan needs to continue to stir up trouble.

Expect to see all of these stories get worse before they get better.

Open Thread

Another unplanned open thread for you. I get a late call to have some information available for a client on Friday... you get an open thread. Not sure which of us is coming out ahead on this.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

See you tomorrow!

***

Here's a little foreshadowing of coming matters, if it helps:

Riots again in Tanzania. The results of a mayoral election are still so suspect that the Oppos are willing to brave facing the police to protest. 2 dead, a dozen more in the hospital, gunshot.

There's a cabinet reshuffle in the works here in Japan, due before the 13.January DPJ party convention. One major point of discussion is if it is time for Chief Cabinet Secretary Y. Sengoku to go. Should be a lively discussion, to say the least.

I smell a rat.

Call me a pessimist, or at least ill-tempered and suspicious, about Sudan's President and ICC-indicted genocidaire Omar Hassan al-Bashir's visit to Juba yesterday in South Sudan.

The visit by the Northern leader who presided over the slaughter of 2 million of his countrymen during the north-south Civil War of Sudan has got to be about something. The official story goes like this:

"The preferred choice for us is unity but in the end we will respect the choice of the southern citizens," Bashir said in a speech to southern officials. "One would be sad that Sudan has split but also pleased because we witnessed peace."

Bashir appeared visibly resigned in contrast to his usual upbeat rhetoric, in a visit seen as a farewell to the south and to the title of Africa's largest country by area.

Accepting that the result is likely to be secession, Bashir said he would come and join in the celebrations after the vote.

"Even after the southern state is born we are ready in the Khartoum government to offer any technical or logistical support and training or advice -- we are ready to help."

I'm not buying it.

This vile fellow has proven a master of using inter-tribal rivalries and other divisions to constantly sow infighting between those that oppose him. It would simply be a volte-face of epic proportions for him to accept the obvious and concede the virtually-certain independence for South Sudan that this weekend's referendum will bring.

If there is anything like a halfway competent Intelligence advisor to the Government of Autonomous South Sudan right now, they should be combing over a list of every single person that met with any part of the al-Bashir entourage ...down to the hired help at hotels and restaurants... looking for any sign of the all-important meeting-of-allegiance that an al-Bashir loyalist would want before signing on to a renewed campaign against South Sudan. It might not have happened; a really competent al-Bashir organization would have gotten such done in secret in the North when no one was watching. But better to be safe than sorry.

I'll just leave this for now with this last quote from the article cited above:

One woman, a Juba resident who asked not to be named for fear of reprisal, said, "next time he comes we can arrest him".

Yes, yes, you can and we'll all be grateful.

ICC takes on 2008 Kenya election violence

It remains a crying shame that the Republic of Kenya can't handle this prosecution itself, but given the seriousness of the crimes and the obviously high-level government involvement there really isn't much of a chance that a domestic prosecution could ever overcome the political pressures of this case. But that same seriousness and level of state involvement... and the toll, ~1,200 dead and ~350,000 forcibly displaced... has drawn in the International Criminal Court.

ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has called upon the six suspects to appear voluntarily before the investigation.

May justice be done.

Sudan fighting links Darfur and South problems

There has always been a linkage... merely a causal one. The Government of the Republic of Sudan has been perfectly content to use the means of warfare on both those peoples and regions.

Rarely, the two conflict zones have overlapped; Most commonly that has happened when an anti-government militia from one area runs into the other region to seek cover. Not this time. Yes, there was fighting on the Darfur side of the line. No, that doesn't explain the bombings in South Sudan territory last month, nor this:

(IRC’s Vincent) Kahi said Sudanese army planes circled overhead during a visit last week by a team composed of several aid agencies, which was sent to assess the needs of the displaced.

“The overflying planes caused additional fear and alarm among a group already traumatised by last month’s bombings,” he added.

The planned referendum on South Sudan Independence comes on January 9th, 2011. None too soon, in my opinion.

If (when!) independence comes, there is some serious doubt that the North will respect it. Means need be provided for the South to at least assert sovereignty over its own borders... but the South is years away from having on its own any air defense capability of note.

So... who's ready to pony up to enforce a no-fly zone over the conflict areas of Sudan?

((silence))

Thought so.