"...little progress in quelling the unrest."

Remember back before the slowdown here at CompHyp how SouthEast Asia, specifically Thailand, used to get a fair amount of topic postings? Between the political instability and a pesky insurgency or two, there was usually something to report...

Well, time gone by and Thailand endured a disaster (massive flooding) nearly as economically damaging as our earthquake/tsunami event here in Japan... and seen a major change in government... and dealt with a lot of other things... but that pesky insurgency down in the south? It is still going, and by some measures getting worse:

YALA, Thailand, March 31 (Reuters) - Nine people died and at least 70 were injured in a series of bomb explosions on Saturday in Thailand's Muslim south, the latest in a wave of violence blamed on separatists in a region bordering Malaysia, police and officials said.

It was a sequenced attack, with the third bomb time delayed after the first two to sucker in onlookers and first responders and then kill them.

The quote in the title, by the way, also comes from the Reuters article cited.

It refers to the Thai military.

Places you may not be watching (April Edition)

There is a lot of Libya Fatigue happening in the media... and about the "Arab Spring" in general... and West Africa's continued spasms are just passe'... it makes it all too easy to want to just read the newspaper to see the Wednesday Supermarket insert and throw away the rest. Please don't.

There are stories out there that matter rather much, but only in one corner of the world, that aren't getting much attention. Here's one I think you might want to see:

Thai-Cambodia clashes spread east to Preah Vihear

Fighting has erupted between soldiers from Cambodia and Thailand along their disputed mountainous border for a fifth consecutive day.

And in other stories...

...as they say in the news business when they gloss over a bunch of other reports that didn't make the editor's cut for airtime, here are some of the stories you've likely missed with all the focus being on the Arab world and certain countries' economic issues (all links below courtesy the fabulous AlertNet):

Madagascar: New road map can end Madagascar leadership row - SADC. I'll believe it when it works. This is, what?, power-sharing plan number six or so?

Congo: Gunmen attack airport in Congo's copper capital. No, not in the Kivus. This was down in Lubumbashi in Katanga Province; historically a hot spot for trouble, but recently the large security presence for the mining industry made it a pretty quiet place. That may not be holding, though.

Kenya: FACTBOX-Kenyan cabinet rocked by Kibaki's judicial nominations. Further evidence that the Kibaki-Odinga powersharing agreement is getting all the credence paid to it by the stronger party that usually happens in such cases... in other words, none to speak of. This will be a big problem if a constitutional crisis takes full form before the elections scheduled for next year.

and over in Southeast Asia...

Thailand / Cambodia: Thai, Cambodian troops in deadly clash near temple. Again. I've covered this dispute here at CompHyp before at some length, and it is still an open risk of major conflict between the two countries. The Royal Thai Army spokesman says it looks to have been a misunderstanding that led to the exchange of fire, and then an artillery duel, and that:

"There is no point in fighting because it could escalate and damage relations... We don't want that."

No kidding... especially when such an incident happens during a meeting in Cambodia between the Foreign Ministers of the two nations. Well, now they've really got something to talk about.


More stories, and more details on things, as time allows.

V. Bout in U.S. custody

It took two years of determined effort, but Viktor Bout is now in U.S. custody.

media reports: The AP via FOXNews; The BBC.

Job well done.

Key moment at hand in Thai insurrection

The mass protests of "Red Shirt" anti-government demonstrators reached the point of mass violence earlier this month, when an attempted crackdown on April 10th left over a score dead and failed to break the movement.

The demonstrators continue to claim wider grievances, but are mostly supporters of ousted (and indicted) former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his hand behind the motivation of the Red Shirts can not be discounted.

The protests have resulted in a closure of the Bangkok Shopping district as the demonstrators have set up barricaded camps all along the major streets there for weeks. Violence is a daily threat. The government has failed to restore order and, if this is any indication, lacks the will to do so:

The reds' proposal came shortly after the army commander-in-chief, Gen Anupong Paojinda, told his commanders he would not use force to evict the protesters.

Deputy army spokesman Colonel Sirichan Ngathong said Gen Anupong thought the use of force would "not end the current problems and would have many repercussions".

"The best thing is to create understanding among the people. The army's job now is to take care of the people, and not allow Thais to attack each other," Col Sirichan reported the general as saying.

Perhaps there is something to negotiate. Perhaps. Luck to the government to find a way out of this mess.

For now, consider this British Travel Warning to be broadly applicable:

The Foreign Office gave its travel advice relating to Thailand's capital because of the risk "that violence could break out without warning".

...

The Foreign Office said in a statement: "This advice reflects our concern for the safety of British nationals planning to travel to Bangkok, given the risk that violence could break out without warning during the increasingly volatile political crisis.

"The situation is changing on a daily basis, and we recommend that British nationals living in Thailand or travelling to the country check the travel advice on the Foreign Office website regularly for details of further developments."

I'd extend that to "any nationality" being at risk. Stay safe, folks.

Hun Sen throws in with Thaksin

...and the Thais then throw *out* diplomatic relations with Cambodia.

This is just monstrously stupid of Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen, by the way. He *can't* have believed that the Government of Thailand would sit idly by when he invited convicted-in-absentia criminal and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawarta to an advisory post in his administration.

It ranks as doubly insulting given the delicate negotiations going on over the contested Preah Vihear temple site along the border between the two nations... negotiations that are the only answer other than fighting over the land and heritage site... negotiations that haven't been going very well.

The Kingdom of Thailand is not accustomed to being treated this way, and it is now abundantly clear that they are not going to leave this as a tit-for-tat.

This is going to get worse unless Hun Sen and his crew realize that their little personal gravy-train of foreign aid and quiet self-aggrandizement is going to come to a sudden halt if they don't back off supporting Thaksin.

It remains to be seen whether such rational conduct is in their capacity.

Perhaps some Thai overtures to the Sam Rainsy Party would get Hun Sen's attention?

What in Sam Hill... ?

One of my former instructors was a great proponent of the "stupid is more likely than malice" analysis of an apparently counterproductive course taken by some actor. The logic was that there are usually enough other signs of vile intent to confirm that as the cause of the action, and in the absence of those pure incompetence was a far more likely explanation for an action.

Yeah, I'll even ascribe to that as a general case.

So, when I find relentless counterproductive conduct by the U.S. State Department (and a certain NSC staffer) and an attempt by certain biased U.S. Senators to revise the truth about events in Honduras, I'd say its is time to make a judgement as to *WHY?* these acts of persistent idiocy are happening.

I'd like to hope that it is all because one political faction in the Obama administration, that one controlling Foreign Policy, is boundlessly incompetent... It would explain why they have misread Iran, mishandled the Bout extradition case in Thailand, stumbled publicly on negotiations with China and Russia, and generally upset most every alliance the U.S.A. is a part of...

...because *if it malice*, then some very, very bad things are happening.

So forgive me, Professor, but this time I will hope for stupid but plan as if it is malice. The cost of not assuming malice has become prohibitively high.

***

Addenda:

two more examples of the course being followed:

SecState Clinton in Pakistan, as observed by John Hannah (link via J. Hinderaker at Powerline).

An assessment of the U.S. role in the current IAEA negotiations with Iran, by Robert Kagan.

Things are *not* looking good, folks.

Red Shirts protest

The Kingdom of Thailand remains but one spark shy of mass civil disorder, still.

On the third anniversary of the forcible removal of former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra by the Royal Thai Armed Forces, masses of his supporters turned out for rallies even in appalling weather. Perhaps more appalling would be the fact that the man's populist support is entirely blind to the conviction (in absentia, as Thaksin is in self-exile) for massive corruption during his administration. The "Red Shirt" true believers of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) simply ignore all that. They just want to bring down the current government and bring back Thaksin.

The other side came out for rallies as well, with "Yellow Shirt" demonstrators from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) out in force as well. But in a case of ill-considered conflation of issues, a group of PAD activists attempted to force entry into the Preah Vihear temple site, claiming the Thai nationalist goal of forcing Cambodian authorities out of the area.

This isn't helping, fellows. Standing up to the "Red Shirts" is domestic politics... albeit argued in the street... and fair game. Dragging the border dispute with Cambodia into the disorder simply endangers any hope of a reasoned resolution to that matter.

The foreign investment community isn't pleased by all this disorder, either:

Export credit and risk insurance agency ONDD this week downgraded its medium and long-term political risk rating for Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy because of continued uncertainty and "the absence of a durable solution to the crisis".

Webb visits Myanmar (Burma)

Either *this* is one heck of a case of harebrained Parliamentary Diplomacy... that's when elected representatives take it upon themselves to go play Ambassador... or (far more likely) a massive shift in American policy toward Myanmar (Burma), which could not possibly come at a less appropriate time.

The Than Shwe Junta has just taken the opportunity to further repress the party of Ang San Suu Kyi and extend her house arrest further for a matter she had no responsibity in...

The latest round of North Korean gamesmanship was focused on further arms exports to the Junta...

The Myanmar Army has been on the offensive against the Karen ethnic group, driving more of those people over into refuge in Thailand...

...and this is a good time to send over a sitting U.S. Senator to have a chat with Than Shwe?

Then again, we are talking of the current American administration; Between creative interpretations of other democratic countries' Constitutions and banishing the Secretary of State on repeated journeys to outlying corners of the world, this might well be right along the course of action one should expect from the Obama regime.

***

Open invitation: anyone who sees a plausible explanation for all this, please do feel free to inform me... but do keep it to the foreign affairs part of the issue, thanks. There's a reason why this weblog is not a American domestic political 'blog.

Bout has *almost* slipped the charges

Read it and weep: The lower court ruling is in on extraditing Viktor Bout to the U.S.A. to face charges...

"The U.S. charges are not applicable under Thai law. This is a political case," said judge Jittakorn Wattanasin in delivering the verdict at Bangkok's Criminal Court.

"The FARC is fighting for a political cause and is not a criminal gang. Thailand does not recognise the FARC as a terrorist group."

Besides the obvious misapprehension on the part of the presiding judge as to the character of the FARC, His Honor seems to have overlooked the nature of the threat to civil aviation worldwide posed by anyone selling "700 to 800 surface-to-air missiles" on the black market.

There is still one last opportunity to land the fish. The Thai prosecutors can file an appeal up to 72 hours after the lower court rules, and that would bump the request to a higher court, but it almost requires that the prosecutors show that the lower court judge made a mistake or failed to address all the evidence presented in the extradition request.

Better make it a good try, fellows. The Russians already have the vodka on ice for the celebration party.

KP Department Closed

In the clean-up after the Sri Lankan victory over the LTTE ("Tamil Tigers") terrorist separatist movement, one major issue left open was the LTTE weapons smuggling network. As it mostly existed outside Sri Lanka, getting to the players and shutting them down was known to be a hard challenge.

Well, it looks like they've run one of the worst to ground. Selvarajah Pathmanathan, better known as "KP" ("KP Department" was the LTTE name for their arms smugglers), has been arrested and transported back to Sri Lanka for interrogation.

It has been a long chase to get him, too:

Sri Lankan officials said diplomatic necessities precluded naming the exact location where he was arrested.

"It is a sensitive issue and the government wants to respect the wishes of all parties involved," a senior Sri Lankan official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Thai authorities arrested Pathmanathan in 2007 and were ready to hand him over on condition their involvement was not known.

But he escaped after Sri Lanka publicised his arrest there, and Thailand denied he was ever in custody, diplomats with knowledge of the incident say. Earlier this year, Sri Lanka was infuriated when a European diplomat met KP in Kuala Lumpur.

Apparently, however, he had to show his face to claim leadership of the LTTE-in-exile and that led to the opportunity for the black-bag job that brought him in.

This time for sure

The Government of Thailand has had its share of embarrassment over the massive demonstrations that endangered the last ASEAN meeting. Historically, Thai leaders don't take to being embarrassed very well. Case in point:

With just two weeks to go before the East Asia Summit is to be held on Phuket Island, the country's defence minister has issued a statement:

"I will do whatever it takes to stop these demonstrations from happening..."

Here's hoping the presence of 10,000 security personnel and an outpouring of good sense on the part of all factions makes that a peaceful and simple job.

Bout Extradition Challenge

The Defense for Viktor Bout, "suspected arms trafficker"... eh hem... has filed an accusation that U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents overstepped their jurisdiction in leading the arrest last year. The filing asserts violations of Thai law in the process. The lawyer,

Mr. Chamroen said Monday that American agents had violated Thai law by apprehending Mr. Bout on their own before calling the Thai police to arrest him. They were also carrying firearms in violation of Thai law, he said.

“They invaded a public place without a search warrant,” Mr. Chamroen said in an interview. “They have no power to do this.”

The accusations may resonate among Thai officials who sometimes complain of a heavy-handed approach among the large contingent of American intelligence and law enforcement officials stationed here.

Maybe. Maybe not. There is very little actually in doubt about who V. Bout is or what he has done.

This is at least a stall-tactic, and it could undermine the entire case against V. Bout, so how it is received by the judge is going to be of great importance. These new charges will be heard separately by a judge on July 13th. V. Bout has a procedural hearing, today, as well.

Preah Vihear talks... silence...

The Governments of the Kingdom of Thailand and the Kingdom of Cambodia met today for talks on the Preah Vihear Temple crisis.

Reporters were kept away from Saturday's two-hour meeting on the outskirts of Phnom Penh and officials from both governments would not comment on the subject of the talks.

That means most likely that the two sides talked *past* each other, not *with* each other.

The standing claims are: (Thai) the site should be a joint development area and UNESCO is not being helpful by recognizing sole rights of Cambodia; (Cambodian) the Thai are welcome "to raise the issue of withdrawing Thai troops from the border".

There had better be a third position taken by someone, soon, or this matter will go nowhere.

Karen refugees flee to Thailand

Lieutenant General Thanongsak Aphirakyothin, a Royal Thai Army commander on the western frontier, has reported that at least 1,700 ethnic Karen refugees have flooded across the border from Myanmar (Burma) following a Myanmar Army offensive against the Karen National Union (KNU) on June 3 and fighting continued on Monday according to KNU sources. Karen exile groups put the number of refugees much higher... they cite a figure in excess of 3,200. Again, citing Lt. Gen. Thanongsak:

"They fled because of danger and fear of capture and forced labour by the Myanmar army," Thanongsak told reporters. "Most of the refugees are women and children."

Background on this issue was discussed *here* at CompHyp back in February.

Four more attacks in south Thailand

There has been another wave of attacks on teachers, public servants, and military patrols in the Patanni (Pattani) region of southern Thailand; five dead. Two Royal Thai Army Rangers, two school guards, and the head of the local administration in Pattani town.

Schools and teachers are frequent targets of attacks in the south because militants see the education system as an effort by Bangkok to impose Buddhist Thai culture on the mainly ethnic Malay region.

The national government is considering new security measures in the region.

Background on this insurgency can be found *here* at CompHyp.

It's the little things in the news

It is the little things buried in the news that often are the most telling...

Here's an example: A report by Reuters on the investigation into the attempted murder of "Yellow Shirt" People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leader Sondhi Limthongkul, which remains unsolved despite claims in the Bangkok Post claiming a military role in the attack. Late in the report, it changes focus to give information on upcoming protests by "Red Shirt" activists of Thaksin Shinawartra's United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) party. It concludes with

Thaksin, who lives in self-imposed exile to avoid a two-year jail term on conflict of interest charges, was not expected to address the rally as he did previous protests by video link.

Thailand revoked Thaksin's passport after the latest violence and has urged governments to deny him refuge, but the wily former premier has eluded Bangkok's efforts to extradite him.

Thaksin has a diplomatic passport from Nicaragua and showed up in the West African country of Liberia last week, saying he was scouting for investment opportunities.

Now it is well known that Thaksin has access to the U.K., and significant business interests there, but it has been something of a wonder that he has stayed ahead of arrest while he seemingly carelessly jet-sets around the world.

Now you know. He's untouchable.

The current Government of Nicaragua can be bought.

Given the access groups like Iran's Pasdaran (IRGC) have to Nicaragua, this should pretty much put chills up the spine of any national security officer in the world.

Thai protests move to Bangkok

The same "red shirt" protesters who forced a state of emergency in Pattaya (now lifted) by their invasion of the ASEAN+6 conference site have now gone after the Interior Ministry building in the capital, while the Prime Minister was in the building. He got out, and as a first order of business ordered a State of Emergency for Bangkok and the surrounding area.

That seems necessary, as the protesters have now massed at the Police HQ and at Government House. What comes next could get pretty rough if someone doesn't back down.

Until this comes to some resolution, best not to be going into harm's way. Consider this a Travel Warning and avoid unnecessary travel to or through Thailand for now.

ASEAN+6 meeting cancelled by protests

The "red shirt" protesters in the employ of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have broken into the conference building, forcing the government of Thailand to cancel the ASEAN+6 meeting scheduled to begin this weekend. Abhisit Vejjajiva, the current Prime Minister has declared the entire area of Pattaya to be under a state of emergency.

The cancellation is a huge embarrassment for Abhisit's government, which came to power in December via parliamentary defections the opposition says were engineered by the military.

The weekend's events will raise questions about how enduring his government can be after four prime ministers over the last 15 months have failed to resolve Thailand's deep political rifts.

That almost underplays the seriousness of the problem.

The government has been reduced to evacuating by helicopter those leaders that arrived early.

"I don't call it a war..."

Those are the best words that a Prime Minister trying to defuse a crisis can possibly say, and they are just what Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia said at a speech given shortly after a deadly incident Friday (local time) that resulted in a prolonged exchange of fire between Thai and Cambodian forces near the Preah Vihear temple site.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen sought to downplay the latest incident during a Saturday speech to handicapped veterans and villagers in the southern province of Kampot.

"It is normal that every side has the right to self-defence. If they come, it happens. And as we enter their territory they also have the right to fire at us," Hun Sen told the crowd.

"But we consider this (clash) an incident. I don't call it a war... We are very sorry. We don't want Cambodian or Thai soldiers to die," he added.

Of course, it is easy to be magnanimous when your side took no apparent casualties. Two Royal Thai Army soldiers have died, and 10 more are still hospitalized.

Perhaps more disturbing is the continued use of heavy weapons in the area. Rocket and mortar fire occurred, as well as machine gun fire, in the skirmishes after the initial exchange that resulted in all the casualties reported.

The Cambodian Foreign Ministry says that this will not interfere with either ASEAN or joint border talks scheduled shortly.

Here's hoping that is so. This needs to end.