The fight is on for South Ossetia as of late yesterday. Here's the report in the Financial Times telling the Georgian side of the story:
Georgia accuses Russia...
If you'd rather have the Russian version of the tale, The AP is dutifully printing tales of woe from their stringer. Go look on the wire service reports. I won't dignify them by repeating them here.
There has been a statement out of the offices of NATO, calling for an immediate end to Georgian military action. I'll presume that is fear speaking, but I had hoped for better from the alliance. The UNSC has shown better sense, so far...
9.August ERRATA: The NATO statement as released calls on all sides to cease.
NATO SecGen Statement
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This looks like it could get pretty nasty.
Though if the other nations that used to be part of the USSR decide to join in Russia might splinter further.
From Reuters updates and what little information is coming through it looks pretty bad. Many civilians reported killed. Russian armor in South Ossetia.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL768040420080808
Here's a link to the information in Spanish and a photo of one of the burning tanks.
http://www.noticias24.com/actualidad/?p=16587
More photographs, from Getty Images
South Ossetia Intervention
Russian 58th Army has deployed at least 3 battalions of Mech. plus a tail into South Ossetia, uninvited. That makes this the real thing, folks. Georgia is claiming anti-air kills vs the Russians, and will likely back that claim publically. Watch for confirmation.
Here's the breaking story on FOXNews:
FOXNews compiling wires and reports
and here's their photo essay (from various)
FOX photos, South Ossetia Intervention
@Max
You thinking there might just be a dog-pile of upset neighbors on Ivan, given the opportunity? Who would you think might try?
@Marie (Maria)
Thank you for pitching in comments while I was away!
Here's Bloomberg reporting on Putin's comments so far:
Putin called them volunteers
...any students of the Spanish Civil War care to give us a refresher course on the euphamism "volunteers"?
Quick thought here-- how convenient for this attack to happen while everyone is at the Olympics--
Red Cross cant even get through to help out the injured!
quick one here again--
volunteers-- Spanish Civil War-
hard core Stalinists?
dang it LDG-- You make this too much fun and I am not even ready to get out the door!!! LOL
@Susan
"Red Cross cant even get through to help out the injured!"
--easily corrected problem. Ivan packs up and gets the heck off Georgian soil and the Red Cross gets easy access.
Seriously, until the combatants disengage to some extent, all aid is the responsibility of the combatant forces (under modern "International Law")
*personal note to Susan: you should go. We'll be here when you get back.
Quoting from an otherwise unremarkable Kyodo wire service report:
"The U.S. State Department announced it will send an envoy to the region Friday. The envoy will meet with other European envoys to discuss ways to mediate a cease-fire between the Russians, the Georgians and the South Ossetians.
"We support Georgia's territorial integrity and call for an immediate cease-fire," State Department spokesman Gonzales Gallegos said. "We are working on mediation efforts to secure a ceasefire."
...oh joy. DeptState right on top of matters again. Where was the mediator *last week* (or last year) when it would have done some good?
Important hint for the envoy being sent: Your bosses haven't forgotten the territorial integrity issue, and neither should you. But don't fall for the idea that there are three players on this stage like you did claiming Serbian-held Bosnia was a seperate leadership from Serbia... like you did in... ((sigh)) like you always do. Try not to do it again.
LDG: The Ukrainian President is close to the Georgians, and things have been icy since since the russians tried to kill him. They also have all the Russian black sea navy in their ports, so they could easily take that over.
Moldova would likely take any wider conflict, especially during the summer as an opening to invade Transdinester.
Of course the Checnians might kick up a fuss while Russian
The others might need a bit more promting, but all those who were part of the warsaw pact have a lot of reason to fear Russia not stopping just with Georgia. So might be happy to help.
This is going to get Nasty. and the timing in terms of media coverage could not have been better for Russia. With everyone putting China under a microscope, attention is turned away from the ominous news of "Russian Tanks Moving into Georgia". Though As the morning progresses, the news is shifting more towards this.
Scott
Here's Liz Fuller at RFE/RL doing a Q&A on this. Lots more high quality information coming through at RFE/RL in their Georgia area file stories now, as well.
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty on this
@Max
Well considered. Thank you!
@karl (Scott)
There is a determined effort by several parties to get this pushed up the news queue. Not sure how long it can be kept in view, but folks are trying.
That's one reason for the links here to ongoing reports. More hits on a story is one way to show the media this is important.
I will keep an ear out on the various NPR programs on KCRW this afternoon to see hwo thinga are covered. PRI's "The Eorld" will probably have a fairly full report, though "All things Considered" may be light other than the top of the hour updates, We;ll se, but on the plus side Limbaugh mentioned it.
On purely technical interest of mine I am going to be watching how two militaries with nearly identical weaponry, doctrine, and officer training will come out. I am hoping Georgian rage and solidarity can overgcome Russian Arrogance and Cynicism.
I wouldn't count on Yuschenko. He has proven ineffectual, unfortunately and is hampered by the fact that the Party of the Regions is extremely strong and would probably veto anything he would attempt to do. His Prime Minister is angling for the Presidency and has before thrown in her lot with Yanukovych ... when it was politically expedient. Lot's going on behind the scenes, plus, Russia would squeeze the Ukrainians by cutting off supplies of natural gas. The entire Donbas region... source of much of the country's wealth (coal, etc.) is more aligned with Moscow than with Kijiv.
If a number of the ex-Soviet countries were to make a concerted effort, then perhaps that would work. It's still a guessing game. Hope Georgians prevail.
my apology. That should read "Lots" and not "Lot's"... and I forgot to mention that the Prime Minister is Yulia Tymoshenko.
I've asked a favor of "see-dubya" over at MichelleMalkin-dot-com, so in the spirit of fair play, here's the link to his article (and the comments) on this:
go dawgs
He has a good link in his thread post regarding Russian propaganda outlets being in action from moment one of this crisis. The comments, well, reflect the entirely mixed levels of understanding by even the fine readers over at MichelleMalkin. But that's why we try to get the word out on this...
@karl
"On purely technical interest of mine..."
leave it to you, old buddy, to take the technician's view... but yes, it will prove instructive. The airpower encounters to date have also illustrated some things (the Russians are dependent on a route through a tunnel from the north, but Georgian air has not managed to put a cork in that route. Given Russian air redeployments into the region, likely they can't do it any longer either)
@marie
I concur that the Ukraine is politically incapable of initiating a counter-intervention at this point. Max's remarks do bring to mind the potential effectiveness of a regional *political* resistance, but even that would be a challenge (I think) for the various leaders to organize.
@All
The test of American support in the next day or so will be the willingness to see to the redeployment of the Georgian Army detachment in Iraq back home.
If it takes U.S. Air Force transport planes flying into Tbilisi to get it done, expect the fur to fly, at least politically...
Well NPR was light but did cover it Right AFTER the Olympic coverage. Reecent Radio reports on the AM Talker here (KFI-640AM), report that the Russians have "shut down" Georgian Air Space, and that the Georgian Troops will have to be trucked from Iraq, through Turkey.
Unfortunately it seems also the Georgians don't have their Erich Hartmann equivalent in the air.
The connotations seem to see this as escalating. Really sad to see the Ukraine poleaxed internally though by that rat bastard Yanukovich.
George Nouri on the Syndicated Am Coast to Coast is reporting the Georgian Military isbeing advised by 1000 Israeli Military Advisors. The advisors are there because Georgia has a gas pipeline that supplies Israeli interests. He also reports that a U.S. Carrier group maybe tasked to the area.
Small bit heard elsewhere, that the Russians have disabled air bases all over the country. (Gee, doesn't that sound like OUR usual opening round tactics for an invasion?)
@karl
re: "...trucked ... through Turkey"
Understood that the Russians are *trying* to shut down Georgian airspace, but you know, Turkish open airspace would give some options...
re: Israeli presence.
Yes they are there, not sure of numbers. Mostly technical types though.
re: carrier group
define "in the area". I'll call shenanigans on that for now, simply because of the availablity of land bases within radius, granted given alliance airspace access.
re: Georgian airbase strikes
Two confirned strikes, negligible effect on the fields, some aircraft losses. If that's the best Ivan can do, he should hang his head in shame.
addenda: there have been repeated small sorties against non-relevent targets. Tried to hit the oil export terminal. Strategically ineffective *so far* and politically dumb as it shows the Russians are in this for more than just "restoring peacekeeping".
Moved by request:
Susan said...
Lord LDG--
You never cease to amaze me!!
I was off reading about the Spanish Civil War-- looking for the euphemism for volunteers-- I found The Spanish Civil War: An Overview- by Cary Nelson which I saved- and another read about the Abraham Lincoln Brigade-
and back here-- now I have to read about the Treaty of San Francisco!
I will get back to this in the morning-- I am headed to bed in a bit-- tired!
thanks for all the info and teachings!
xxx
August 8, 2008 10:20 PM
@Susan
re: "volunteers"
Actually, the Socialists (idealists like the ALB, as well as Soviet forces) and the Fascist allies (Axis troops from Germany, Italy and Portugal) all called their expeditionary forces in the Spanish Civil War "volunteers"...
Thus my comment above.
(personal note to Susan: most welcome. rest well!)
The UN Security Council is again ineffective
http://voanews.com/english/2008-08-09-voa2.cfm
And the opinion from Russia media is belligerant and uncompromising, and conspiracy theories come to the fore:
http://freethinker.typepad.com/the_free_thinker/2008/08/voices-from-rus.html
(I forgot what the HTML was to make the links live, sorry, Doug)
Scott
...any students of the Spanish Civil War care to give us a refresher course on the euphamism "volunteers"?
-----------------------
a shot in the dark here--
The Abe Lincoln Brigade-
they came from all walks of life-
The conviction that made volunteering for a war against fascism possible was born from the economic calamity and political turmoil of the 1930s. They established the first racially integrated military unit in U.S. history.
The Lincolns returned home as heroes of the anti-fascist cause but enjoyed no official recognition of their deed.
@karl
Don't sweat the links for now, compadre. Just keep the sources coming as you find them and we'll cut and paste for now.
(use of the "a" tag given in a thread under the site admin label, last weekend.)
darn-- I saw your more recent posts while I was busy typing away-
well chara!
off to bed!
@Susan
No problem, you got the idea.
Rest well.
Clarification for those not following the sideline about volunteers:
The ABL during the Spanish Civil War really were volunteers. Idealists. There were a few others on both sides, but...
Just about everyone else called a "volunteer" was in fact either a Soviet or Fascist soldier sent in by their governments under the false flag of "volunteers".
Right then, back on topic from here.
back to Georgia--
The fighting, which devastated the capital of Tskhinvali, threatened to ignite a wider war between Georgia and Russia, and escalate tensions between Moscow and Washington. Georgia said it launched the assault because of rebel attacks; the separatists alleged Georgia violated a cease-fire.
timing suggested Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili may have been counting on surprise to fulfill his pledge to wrest back control of South Ossetia
Bodies lying all over the streets-
Each side blaming each other-
Detroit News- 40 minutes ago- and Reuters has one article from 19 minutes ago
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSL768040420080809
Condoleezza Rice is asking Russia to stop the attacks-- (Like Russia is going to listen!!!!!!!!!!)
this is more than awful!!!!!!!!!!!!
You know how Georgia wanted to be a part of NATO-- If Georgia had been a part of NATO, do you think this would have happened?
Just wondering-- and off to bed!
There has been some nattering in the media about who 'ethnicly cleansed' who in South Ossetia. Unlike the mass expulsions of Georgians from Abkhazia, the answer seems to be neither (or both, but ineptly) *to date*.
Here's the best current source on population and demographics in South Ossetia. Relevent data on page 3 of the file:
pcgn (GovUK) on South Ossetia
...note there has been no census taken since before the seperation.
note also the clear point that Russian in this case is a nationality. Very few of the seperatists are ethnically Russian. They are mainly Ossetian (a.k.a. Alans, historically).
Any Russian claims that 100,000 Ossetians fled to Russian territory should be dismissed as lies. There haven't been 100,000 Ossetians total in South Ossetia in modern times, if ever.
@Susan, when you wake up
re: "If Georgia had been a part of NATO, do you think this would have happened?"
switch those logical operators around...
"Because this was going to happen, Georgia wanted to be part of NATO, and most of NATO didn't want to let them in."
Apparently Georgia provided an excuse for exactly what Putin wanted. Control of all energy going into Europe.
http://www.transatlanticpolitics.com/2008/08/09/russia-crushes-georgia-and-europes-hopes-for-energy-independence/
stand on their neck, and Europe may do anything Russia wants.
Side discussion by voice elsewhere brought this point out:
"Bombing the oil terminal and pipeline, seriously bombing them, is what Russia does *when it is losing*. They do it to deny an uncontrolled alternative route. If they are winning, they want to take it (and Georgia) intact." -- personal source and I concur, so if you quote it credit me.
@karl
the above doesn't contradict your point about Putin's preparations (yes, preparations. You don't roll out modern forces of any consequence without a logistical preparation) and his plans for: running Nord Stream; running the extant pipelines; thwarting the Causasian and Trans-Caspian alternatives.
It has been "energy is a weapon" in his thinking for some time now.
update on mine of August 8th 5:18 pm:
see-dubya comes through with the backlink to The Weekly N&C thread
((bows deeply))
You have my gratitude, good sir.
while I was sleeping, those Russian warplanes sure did a lot of damage!!!!!!!!!!
What DO the people in South Ossetian want? Do they want to be part of Russia or part of Georgia? Aren't they for the most part, Russians?
@Susan
re: "What DO the people..."
The roughly 70% of the remaining population that is of Ossetian ethnicity have almost all accepted Russian nationality. Their declared goal is to unite the territory of South Ossetia with the North Ossetia district inside Russian territory.
The Georgian ethnics that remain are, to no surprise, hoping South Ossetia remains part of Georgia.
see mine of August 8, 11-49 pm, above.
re: "Russian warplanes..."
Actually, they missed the oil pipeline according to Georgian sources...
AFP via Breitbart on this
...and the Russians are now owning up to some of their aircraft losses. Two admitted lost so far.
The bigger news item is reports of a substantial airlift of Russian airborne troops directly into South Ossetia.
-more on those shortly-
Here's the CNN ((gulp)) summary that quotes Russian Paratroop deployments and Russian admission of aircraft losses:
Well, it has quotes of some merit
and here is The AP's version, via FOXNews:
Yes, I wish it was by FOX's own reporters too
Well, Rice asking Russia not to drop planes didn't work-- Bush's pleas have not either and for the "second time in less than 24 hours, the U.N. Security Council has been unable to agree on a course of action to stop the escalating violence in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia." (they can't find the right words for the agreement?)
@Susan
re: "(they can't find the right words for the agreement?)"
It is still 'place the blame' time over at the UNSC.
Honest answer time: The real issue is that the UNSC has neither the gumption nor ability to say what really needs to be said... That the original CIS "mandate" for peacekeeping by Russia on Georgian territory is *not* a binding legal mandate by UNSC standards.
Of course Russia wants control of the pipeline. Also because of the divvying up of the former Yugoslavia, there is a precedent for splintering, and no real argument against it, as Europe and the U.S. were all for it at the time.
Had Ukraine's and Georgia's entry into NATO not been blocked, NATO would have had to come to Georgia's aid.
This is a land grab and flexing of muscle in response to the missile shield. Also, if Russia wins, it will become a dangerous precedent for proceeding with its claim to Crimea = the Fleet!!
Yanukovich will block anything that Ukraine may want to do... this has all been calculated and launched at a time when all eyes are elsewhere.
More good thoughts and some analysis can be found in the work of 8 and 9.August by N. Hodge and N. Shachtman over at DANGER ROOM. Not a primary source, but hey, other than analysis neither are we here...
DANGER ROOM site link. sort tag on these items is Crazy Ivans
Just for correctness sake, here's a revision to the media report I echoed about the NATO statement dated 8.August:
The Secretary General calls on all sides for an immediate end of the armed clashes and direct talks between the parties
whew. correcting the thread post now.
@Marie
Well said!
Speaking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, articles quoted above cite that elements of the Fleet are at sea off the Georgian Abkhazia coast today.
Susan the caboose, trying to keep up with LDG and Marie!
Off your last link, LDG, I read the article posted about NATO and Georgia and what Georgia would have to do in order to join NATO--
@Susan
re: yours of 9. Aug 11:01 am
Hm? Ah did you go into NATO's site pages and look at the ascension conditions?
Advisory: If you have a STRAFOR subscription, look there for some fairly advanced analysis and presentation on this conflict.
If you don't, but want to see what they are putting out, look here please:
Tigerhawk, citing STRATFOR
I'd post direct links, but I'd hate to ask Dr. Friedman for an exemption and I respect STRATFOR's property rights. I'll just presume Tigerhawk has permission.
I just remembered the Cossaks, most Cossaks are anti-Moscow, and there is a movement for a Cossak nation from the Dniester to the Ural. The Ukraine as a nation was based on cossak heritage of the area. So if they promised the cossak hosts that they would form an expanded cossak nation the cossak hosts; which mostly occupy the southern region of Russia and basically maintian all government functions in that area, including an independant military; may well decide to join in, effectively cutting off the Russian military attacking Georgia.
re: comments by Marie and Max
The Russians are now including anti-Ukraine statements in their claims on the war...
from Reuters
...so even *if* the Ukraine does not intend to be involved, some in the GovRussia intend to involve them.
@LDG--
Yes, I did--
good word-- ascension-
I feel like I am taking a crash course here on trying to read everything to understand!
just read your reuters link-- yup-- Russia appears to be blaming the Ukraine as well--
Latest from the NYT reporters in the region:
Georgia and Russia Nearing All-Out War
Key Points: Georgian Troops in Iraq have requested U.S. DoD assistance in an airlift return to Georgia; UN Peacekeepers in Abkhazia Kodori Gorge area were told to pull out before Russian bombers hit the Georgian Troops there... UN pulled out; Black Sea Fleet activities linked to possible sealift of Russian troops into Georgia.
wow-- the latest--
I wonder if those troops from Iraq (Georgia's) are going to be sent?
I did hear yesterday, Georgia had planned on starting to bring them back before this incident--
to me-- this is war
I had to delete my comment-- as Putin is now back in Russia-- running the show-- as President Medvedev is on the phone--
2008 17:00
Saturday Dmitry Medvedev had a telephone conversation with President of the United States George W. Bush.
In the conversation it was stressed that the Georgian side had taken aggressive action against civilians and Russian peacekeepers. The consequences of the barbaric acts planned and implemented by the Georgian leadership are enormous: more than a thousand casualties, tens of thousands of refugees, mass destruction and what amounts to flouting the right for life of an entire people.
Russia is guided in these circumstances by a single concern, the immediate challenge of ending the violence, protecting the civilian population, the majority of which are Russian citizens, and the prompt restoration of peace. Within the framework of its peacekeeping mission and in accordance with the mandate given by the international community, Russia will resolve the problem of forcing the Georgian side to accept peace and of protecting the lives and dignity of its citizens, as required by the Constitution, the laws of the Russian Federation and the rules of any civilized country.
The President of Russia stressed that the only way out of the tragic crisis initiated by the Georgian leadership in Tbilisi is the withdrawal of its armed forces from the conflict zone, the return to the process of peace agreements and, most importantly, the signing of a legally binding agreement abjuring the use of force. The President expressed his hope that the U.S. and other countries interested in establishing stability and security in the Caucasus will act in a similar fashion.
For his part, the U.S. President expressed his serious concern about what has happened, called for a de-escalation of the situation and conveyed his intentions to help with the return to the task of finding a political-diplomatic settlement.
The conversation was held at the initiative of the U.S. side.
This reminds me of the game you play as a kid-- no I won't give it up until you do!
@karl
...and Any/All who understand this
I need to be resting for a while now, but I need an eye on something while I am out of the loop.
What I am looking for is first reports of either U.S. Air Force Air Expeditionary Wing deployments happening *now* without previous tasking orders, or movements of logistical elements or AOC (AN/USQ-163 Falconer) deployables.
You see any public source on those in motion, please say so here.
Thanks.
@Doug, I will do what I can, I'll be looking about and poking my nose here and there. if I find anything else I'll post, but in the mean time, Reuters.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L9618164.htm
Just a little FYI. It used to be "the" Ukraine when it was part of the USSR. Now the preferred reference is just plain "Ukraine".
I suspected that Russia's goal is not just getting Ossetia. It has never gotten over the breakup of the USSR into countries that in many cases pre-date the Duchy of Moscovy -> Russia -> USSR and then the breakup. Putin has never hidden his desire to restore what in his mind should be the status quo. Medvedev is just his puppet.
Unfortunately, because of the Russification [see LDGs posting] of the countries of the former USSR, those countries now find that they have large Russian ethnic populations, which are pulling toward reuniting with "mat6 Rasiija".
This is a very bad situation if left unchecked.
Yes Max, the Cossacks have never wanted to be a part of Russia. That could be a way out and a buffer. But you still have to deal with Eastern Ukraine where the overwhelming population is of Russian descent. Ukrainians are in the minority because of resettlement and Russification.
Crimea, is another problem. The Tartars have laid claim to it too.
UNSC - good for nothing except for occasional posturing.
Russian News Service:
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080809/115925621.html
Time magazine comes in late, but has a good overview of the situation
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1831073,00.html
Uncle Jimbo at Blackfive is not optimistic should our electiosn go funny, as well as analysis from soneone whos thesis was on the Soviet Space Program.
http://www.blackfive.net/main/2008/08/the-scariest-th.html
http://www.blackfive.net/main/2008/08/the-scariest-th.html
I'll keep looking but I do have a few errands to run today.
Scott
Excellent article on the Georgian crisis.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08092008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/raping_georgia_123664.htm
you can also find information on
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Moscow/Tbilisi - In a further escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on Saturday declared martial law in Georgia. Saakashvili made the announcement after a decision taken at a meeting of the country's national security council in Tbilisi.
on the human side of this-- I can't even envision what these poor people are going through-- over 2,000 dead--
Geraldo just said Russia is throwing everything at Gerogia except for the kitchen sink-- (Russian Goliath) Russian fighter jets flying all over-- Russia is coming in by air, land, and sea.
military conflict is growing by the hours--
Georgia is saying they are at war with Russia-- and asking for US help--
and this is what Geraldo just covered-- You got it all, right here!
spelling error-- Georgia-- I was typing as Geraldo was speaking--
sorry
so do we call karl, scott, or scott, karl?
marie--
thanks for those links--
@Marie
re: "Just a little FYI." -- THANK YOU! That was intellectual laziness on my part. I use the spelling Ukrayina, no "the", in work here and didn't switch gears correctly. mea culpa.
@Susan
re: "...2000 dead" -- I'll believe that when I see the after-action numbers. But there is good confidence in that if you sum up both sides the count is well up into the hundreds.
re: "Geraldo" -- A moment of mortal terror: FOXNews has G. Rivera on this story now? Hadn't seen him on any of the video feeds so far...
re: "karl ... scott" -- I almost always use the comment's handle in the "@" string. (maxkon88, somehow, remains just Max in my mind).
A very fine summary of events, including the cyberwarfare, as of the 10.Aug edition of the Baltic Times. Baltic Ministries of Foreign Affairs contributed to the story:
Russia invades Georgia-Baltic Response
hat tip: "Desert Fox", posting at Lucianne News Forums.
Yes, Geraldo is covering the story- he just came on and stated thousands killed-- Georgia declares war-
He also compared Russia/Ossatia as to Hitler taking over Czech to protect the Germans living there--
I read your link-- Lithuania, Latvia-- I didn't see Estonia-- glad to see my ancestors, Lithuania, are pitching in!
this whole thing just makes my blood boil-- INNOCENT PEOPLE DYING!
Geraldo had about five minutes of this again-- and now back to Edwards!
so it is Scott?
YEs it is Scott. The Karl Reisman ID is from Second Life, and the blogger ID I use to post to the SL company Blog, and the convient log in. However if I could figure out the correct way to post using my Livejournal account (without paying any money) I'd do that co clear up confusion.
Scott
Lots of info suddenly on the Russian Cyber attack.Interesting to not e the flood of pro Russian comments in some of these reports. Other commenters attribute the postings to FSB. heh The news here:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2008/08/georgian_web_sites_under_attac.html?nav=rss_blog
Slashdot reports:
http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/08/10/0126232
And the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church cals for an end to the Bloodshed.
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2008/08/09/russia-religious-leaders-call-for-stopping-the-bloodshed/
There is some interesting stuff begining to come to public sources. Things we know:
Reuters:58th Army (group) Commanding General WIA in fighting
also Georgian Forces withdrawn outside Tskhinvali (South Ossetia Prov. Capital)
and things we don't know, yet:
Roki Tunnel may or may not have been interdicted...
Russian Naval Assets may or may not be blockading Georgian coast...
Abkhaz forces may or may not have attacked Georgian forces in the Kodori Gorge, and may or may not have been repulsed...
Next 12~24 hours could be critical in deciding how big this is going to get. Stay tuned...
Even the Russians don't know if a sea blockade is on:
AFP:Interfax yes RIA Novosti no
come on guys... get with the program.
Is this like some fun war game going on here?
FIRST: I do believe many people are dying-- innocent civilians!
SECOND: To try to place strategically these warships, or airplanes, or whatever, is not my form of amusement!
THIRD: No one needs a prelude for a WWIII
This has to be stopped-- Like today- Pronto--NOW!!!!
INNOCENT PEOPLE ARE DYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
good nite!
No one I am aware of here thinks this is a game, nor fun.
Here is an insightful commentary from Yulia Latynina, a host on Ecko Moskvy (Russia), reprinted by RFE/RL
here, on RFE/RL
Key Point: Identifies the players in the South Ossetian "seperatists" and their actual connections to the siloviki
At least 50 people were outside the Russian Embassy waving georgian flags and chanting.
LDG: well maxkon88 is based on my full name, so just max is fine.
Just musing here. I wonder if Germany is now a bit sorry for having nixed Georgia and Ukraine's bid for ultimately NATO membership? If Russia takes over Georgia (and it looks like that is and has been the intention all along), the pipeline supplying Europe will be under its control, and by extension, Russia will be able to basically do whatever it wants, without protest from Europe for fear of having supplies cut off. Checkmate!
"EU foreign ministers will meet early next week to discuss ways to resolve the crisis, French President Nicolas Sarkozy's office said in an e-mailed statement from Paris yesterday."
Isn't it amazing how quickly (sic) the EU is moving!
re: the EU -- OSCE is doing a little better, but both are way behind on doing what is needed.
re: Ukraine -- they may close the door behind the Russian Black Sea Fleet and lock them out...
the FT on the ceasefire
Key point: many, but see the last paragraph for material relevant to this.
If Ukraine does decide to shut out the Black Sea Fleet, it better be ready to back that up with more force. Talk is cheap and Russia is out to get as much as it can, with total impunity.
BBC Reports:
Georgia Calls Osetia Cease Fire
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552659.stm
On Sunday evening the Georgian foreign ministry said in a statement that Georgia "today stopped firing in the South Ossetian conflict zone and is ready to begin talks with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities".
Just found this little bit and thought it was interesting in a David vs.Goliath way, but with Goliath winning...
ARMED FORCES COMPARED
GEORGIA
Total personnel: 26,900
Main battle tanks (T-72): 82
Armoured personnel carriers: 139
Combat aircraft (Su-25): Seven
Heavy artillery pieces (including Grad rocket launchers): 95
RUSSIA
Total personnel: 641,000
Main battle tanks (various): 6,717
Armoured personnel carriers: 6,388
Combat aircraft (various): 1,206
Heavy artillery pieces (various): 7,550
Source: Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments
Marie--
I saw those figures as well and I was going to post them-- you beat me to it-- those figures speak for themselves-
I sure hope this ceasefire happens-
off of BBC-- Where I saw those figures Marie posted-
Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council began meeting for a fourth day on Sunday to discuss the conflict. It has so far failed to agree on the wording of a statement calling for a ceasefire.
Marie and LDG--why don't you two write it out and email it to them?
@LDG
re: fun war games going on here-- I didn't mean on the blog--
Russia and that monster, Putin!
BAGHDAD (Map, News) - The U.S. military began flying 2,000 Georgian troops home from Iraq on Sunday, military officials said, after the Georgians recalled the soldiers following the outbreak of fighting with Russia in the breakaway province of South Ossetia.
-----------------------------------
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=1934
BAGHDAD - Last night in the mess hall two Georgian officers sat down at the table opposite me. The one facing me was a bit disheveled; his uniform top was misbuttoned. It was the kind of mistake you could make if you were in a hurry. Both ate quickly and silently.
The incoming items are piecemeal, but both foreshadow an expansion to the conflict. Here's a summary that includes the reports, from The AP via FOXNews:
Russia deploys ships, expands bombing blitz
Key Points: Naval situation is becoming important, unconfirmed reports of two tries by Georgian missile patrol boats to attack Russian naval assets, one Georgian vessel claimed sunk; Critical fighting has moved to the southern edge of South Ossetia, with the Georgian Army making a stand before the critical homeland city of Gori.
Political News: UNSC manuevering still a pointless exercise; Latvian politicos marshalling support for sending aid to Georgia; Russia now claiming Ukraine and Turkey are complicit in aiding Georgia (prior to the initiation of these hostilities).
--sources various.
The rest of the world will stand by and do nothing.
looks like no truce!
Georgia called a cease-fire and said its troops were retreating Sunday from the disputed province of South Ossetia in the face of Russia's far superior firepower, but Russia said the soldiers were "not withdrawing but regrouping" and refused to recognize a truce
@Susan
re: yours here of 10.Aug 12:11 pm
Sure, I'll help.
**IN A FANTASY...**
"The UNSC considers the situation between Republic of Georgia and the Russian Federation to be an Article VII violation of the United Nations Charter. Further, under the 2006 adoption of Responsibility to Protect (UNSC Resolution 1674), it is considered that the Georgian Territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are under a ongoing peril to the civilian population there resident without legitimate protection. As such, the UNSC here resolves that: National Military Forces (NMF) of both the Republic of Georgia and the Russian Federation cease all military operations that could result in armed contact between their respective forces by land sea or air, that those NMF remain or return to their respective recognized borders immediately, and that any armed group other than recognized National Policing Forces (NPF) of the Republic of Georgia cease all armed conflict within the Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia immediately. This Security Council authorizes the immediate funding from the Peacekeeping budget of a deployment of 500 volunteer observers from the Border and Interior Services of the 10 *non-permanent* members of this UNSC to be deployed on a priority basis to the Republic of Georgia, fully empowered to accompany with and report on the conduct of all NPF of the Republic of Georgia present in the Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to assure compliance with UNSC 1674, and that any non-compliance or impediment to observation by these observers will be answered with immediate UNSC action to order armed UNSC-mandated multinational intervention under UNSC 1674."
((wry laugh))
That would last about 2 seconds in the chamber.
@Marie
re: "... do nothing."
Likely. so why not dream big?
**AGAIN IN A FANTASY...**
'In Protest of the Russian Invasion of Georgia: The EU has ordered a 7 day suspension of all imports of petroleum products from the Russian Federation and calls upon allied and cooperative states to open, as they will, their national strategic petroleum reserves for the same 7 day period to sale on the world market.'
@Susan
re: "looks like no truce"
That Georgian movement is the defensive move to retain the approaches to Gori.
Obviously, the Russians have no interest (yet) in there being any truce.
Here's the latest NYT article by their reporters present:
Russian Ground Forces Assault Vital Georgian City
Key Point: If there was ever any doubt, this is no longer about South Ossetia.
Yes LDG. I'd love to dream and would support your resolution in a heartbeat; however, the pragmatic side of me says, don't be stupid.
It never was about South Ossetia. That was the excuse.
@Marie
re: "...the pragmatic side of me says..."
The pragmatic side of you is correct.
Bare knuckles time here for a moment: So long as the various countries threatened by the Russian need to have a border lined with sycophants or conquests fail to effectively organize, this matter will turn out no better than the 1920's efforts to hem in Soviet ambitions.
What is required, at a minimum, is for Georgia to be provided with the obvious sign that someone else, almost anyone else, is willing to die standing beside them.
-more in a few minutes-
ok, here's your -more-
...time for this weblog to live up to its name:
It is very early morning in Georgia right now. **If** by close of business Moscow time either Ukraine and/or the U.S.A. had in motion an air bridge enroute to Georgia via the existing air corridor that passes East to and through Georgia (to support operations in Central Asia) with an unspecified but substantial number of transport aircraft (numbers suitable for something between an American Airborne Battalion with tail or a Ukrainian Parachute Brigade), and *simultaniously* a diplomatic presentation was made to the Russian Foreign Ministry of the decrypted file copy of the intercepted Russian Operating Order that was issued to *their* forces when, without prior communication or coordination with NATO, Russian forces entered Kosovo from Bosnia and seized the Pristina airport during the KFOR deployment...
...what happens?
Side note: Media sources confirm the Georgian return from Iraq is underway, and roughly half the force is back on the ground in Georgia.
From the AFP
...what happens?
Nary a clue. Times are different and can't call it. There's no telling what Russia will do, considering the disproportionate response.
I had completely fogotten the litte Tom Clancy there, but this was a bit of an "Oh shit" reaction when I did (I used to be in the games industry) See the following
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmM3MzAyODkyMWFhOTQ1YjljNzM5ZTRhMTRmNDNlZjI
Scott
@karl
Heh, was avoiding bringing that (Ghost Recon) up to avoid any conflation of 'game' and this topic, but yes that is correct.
Here's the late report Sunday (U.S. Pacific time) from AFP via Breitbart on the situation. Incomplete, but mostly correct. No mention of the Division-strength Mechanized Rifles force building up in Abkhazia, for example. Begs the question as to whether political pressure and their own inability to hit meaningful targets is slowing the Russians, or if this is just a preparation bombardment during their Strategic Pause to get forces/logistics forward.
From AFP
It's becoming pretty clear now, the Russian effort now is simply Regime Change, witha side order of pipeline control. If the Russians pass Gori, I think the rest of the world may figure it out, But treating Russia as a pariah state, is a lot different from making them stop.
The Blackfive gives some analysis of what may occur
• Landing of troops or other forces at or near Poti
• Escalation of bombing within Georgia, and efforts to secure complete control of the airspace over all of Georgia
• The combined arms forces advancing to or beyond the border of South Ossetia
He goes on to post a large number of links from various regional news services. Go read:
http://www.blackfive.net/main/2008/08/the-devil-went.html
Apparently Izvestia is reporting the capture of an American Advisor.
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=246693&D=2008-08-10&SO=&HC=1
Scott
@karl
Good reporting, but wait one please. going to roll out a new thread for this topic in a moment, after I get The Weekly posted.
New thread on this topic now open.
Please post comments on this *here* as of now
Thank you.
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