The Weekly N&C for August 18th, 2008

Broken Somalia

With all the other events happening in the wide world, one might think it is an odd choice to put the focus on Somalia for The Weekly this week. Don’t be alarmed (about that), there is once again a purpose to all of this and one that requires a bit of preparation.

Somalia, as it stands now, really doesn’t get much notice in the general media. This is likely because there is only so many ways reporters can retell another version of “Somali Pirates Hijack (another) Ship”. If it isn’t a luxury yacht of great size or one of the rare cases where the International Task Force nearby intervenes, it might not even make the wires any more. That task force, just to get us started is Combined Task Force 150 (CTF-150) and is the naval component of Operation Enduring Freedom-Horn of Africa (OEF-HOA). For convenience, there are links giving some information on both.

Now with all that firepower in the neighborhood, one would think being a pirate, or an politically-motivated insurgent against the government, or an Islamic hard-line revolutionary would all be jobs with a pretty short life expectancy. On a couple of occasions, that has been the case, but not very often. All right, then what makes it so darn easy to be a malefactor in the judgment of the world and yet a perfectly successful fellow in Somalia? Rhetorically, why doesn’t the government of Somalia just clamp down?

That’s right, it is a trick question.

The government of *which?* Somalia, for one thing. There is a government, on paper and partly in fact now, but there has been a rather long time of clans and factions all playing musical chairs with Mogadishu being the prize. The result, up to recently, has left Somalia looking like someone mixed up the pieces from a bunch of jigsaw puzzles and just snapped some of them together almost at random.

Here’s the current list (might change tomorrow):

The Transitional Federal Government (TFG): this is the international effort to bring together anything resembling a government so that support can be brought to bear. From near defeat at the hands of a nasty Islamic Revolution, the TFG has been resurrected by massive public aid provided by Ethiopia (more on that below). The TFG has wide control and cooperation in Southwest Somalia, and holds the official capital of the country, Mogadishu. Less public aid comes from U.S. and European Forces operating deniably, and African Union troops operating publicly but in very small numbers compared to what will be needed to eventually set things right.

Jubaland: Also called the Trans-Juba. Clans of note are the Marehan, Ogadeni and Habr Gedir. This is the southernmost end of Somalia. It claims to be willing to reintegrate, and cooperates often with the TFG. However, there is a steady, low level cross-border insurgency with individuals and small groups crossing back and forth from Kenya and the warlord-in-chief has made separate peace(s) with the ICU and some of their supporters.

The Southwest: controlled by various clans, at one point revolted led by the Rahanweyn (Reewin clans). This region is supposedly reintegrated as the base of the TFG was at Baidoa until the recovery of Mogadishu.

Galmudug: controlled by, well, Hawiye sub-clans are dominant. Territory was formerly part of the Warlords of Mogadishu holdings (see your Black Hawk Down history primer, please), it separated when the Islamic Courts Union (ICU, more on them below) took Mogadishu. Currently the local administration is at odds with Puntland. This administration also supposedly supports the TFG, as they were liberated from the control of the ICU by Ethiopian and TFG troops.

Puntland: controlled by the Harti clan. This area is the literal “Horn of Africa”, the easternmost extent. It is also, due to that spectacular seacoast, a major den of pirates and smugglers. It claims to be willing to reintegrate with the TFG under a federalism-autonomy scheme.

Maakhir: run currently by the Warsangali (part of the Harti super-clan). This is a central area that is contested by both Puntland and Somailand (below). Upon examination of clan structure, this area is obviously linked to Puntland, but is deniably separate to localize conflicts.

Somaliland: This area that is the northwest extent of Somalia is completely dominated by the Isaaq clan. It has separated from Somalia by declaration, since 1991. Like Jubaland, this area was in colonial times a British territory (unlike the rest which were nominally or actually an Italian colony). This is a generally peaceful and well run territory, in stunning contrast to the rest of the country. Likely that is a major part of why they have no interest on reintegrating.

But wait, other than coastal pirates and clan rivals, where are the bad guys?

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and their al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab (“the boys”) militancy are the major foes of the TFG. They actually came within a hair of taking the entire country except Somaliland back in 2006. Only the Ethiopian intervention turned back the tide and as of now, the ICU controls no large areas of the country (lots of small pockets, though). In an ironic side note, piracy went down under the ICU’s efforts to enforce morality…

Here is a review of contributory players in this drama:

Ethiopia: Historical arch-enemy of Somalia, they were invited in by the TFG to defeat the ICU.

Eritrea: Enemy of Ethiopia, ally of the ICU and various factions as it serves them.

The African Union (AU): Technically, the peacekeeping effort is supposed to be AU run., however very few non-Ethiopian forces are in-country so far.

Djibouti. Functionally this country is a French protectorate, and it lies between Eritrea and Somaliland. It is the base of the U.S. military Horn of Africa taskforce CJTF-HOA, the land and air component of OEF-HOA.

Yemen: This country is not adjacent, but sits across the straits from Somalia. It is notable as (a) being in turmoil itself and (b) it was where the ICU leadership ran away to when their major forces got beaten in Somalia.

Current and recent situation:

Let me just give you a sample of what all has been happening.

17~18 August:
Shabelle reports fresh fighting in Mogadishu between Government troops and Islamist insurgents.

15~16 August:
50 killed 80 wounded South Mogadishu; Ethiopian Troops took 3 bombs, counter-fired wildly and shot up two minibuses.

The same story, more deaths confirmed by the BBC on the 16th.

A battle at Beletwein resulted in 13 dead, incl. 4 Ethiopian Troops. Attack was on a base; the counter-fire by artillery caused civilian casualties.

Clan raiders kidnap governor of Nugal, Puntland, after massive fight breaks out at illegal checkpoint.

Unpaid soldiers of Puntland raided the 54th Army camp and stole weapons (37 rifles plus ammo). They have been unpaid for months.


President of Interim Government Somalia (TFG) accuses Ethiopian General Gabre of taking bribes from business men for private security and allowing Islamist rebels (ICU) to gain strongholds in Hiran and the Middle Shabelle regions of the Southwest.

Somalinet reports landmine attack on President's convoy going to the airport as he and the Prime Minister (who are at odds over the firing of the Mayor of Mogadishu) were
to fly to Addis Ababa for talks. AU moderation is expected at those talks. (Off-topic: recent peace deals with opposition leaders did not include al-Shabaab, the armed wing of the ICU.

13 Aug:
Ethiopia's government ordered General Gabre Heard as well as a colonel connected to the Ethiopian secret intelligence agency to return to the country for failing to perform their duties, a Press TV (Iran) correspondent reported Tuesday. They are widely accused of corruption as well.

More Piracy off Puntland, report from Bosasso: Japanese ship taken July 20th; Thai ship taken August 12th; Nigerian tugboat taken (week of the 11th).

Convinced things are a massive mess there yet?

Quoting United Nations Security Council Verbatim Report meeting 5902, on 2.June, 2008:

“…following the letter of the Transitional Federal Government to the President of the Council asking for assistance from the international community in its efforts to address acts of piracy and armed robbery against ships off the coast of Somalia the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a declaration authorizing nations that have the agreement of the Transitional Federal Government to enter Somali territorial waters to deal with pirates.”

That’s right, no more pirates hiding behind the supposed sovereignty of a still-broken nation. Once some of the better AU units are available, no more TFG messing around with clan politics and trading off favors trying to survive, either.

The gloves are off, and it is open season. Expect to be reading about it more, soon.

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End notes: some very easy to look at sources for current news from the region:
Africa Desk of Reuters
General reporting, can sort stories by country.

All Africa dot com
News clearinghouse, many African newspapers are reprinted. Can sort by Country or by General Topic (Economics, Politics, Conflict and Security, etc.)