Door Number Two

When needing to depart an authoritarian country (or any other country with an even remotely competent border control) without permission, there are some things that are basic to the task that have to happen. Because they are so basic, they are also what the authorities watch for (again, presuming competence) as signs one might be about to skip:

Having a place to go. ~ At least the barest of certainty needs to be known as to whether the place you eventually want to end up will let you in and let you stay. Escaping to Malaysia when you are about to be charged for political/religious crimes in Arabia *is not a win move*.

Having something as a gift to your new hosts. ~ Always nice to bring a present when one is about to impose on an acquaintance. Large troves of narco-terrorist documents make a particularly nice gift to American or EU host countries. Caution: While historically, knowing how to build ballistic missiles or make biological weapons was a sure way to get welcomed, these days that all is now rather less appreciated in the USA and Europe. (Might be just the thing if one wants to defect to Iran... but who the heck would...?)

Do see to your family before making travel plans ~ While condemning one's entire family to punishment and/or murder might be a goal in rare cases, most individuals trying to flee a country they reside in are not particularly interested in leaving family behind. It's hard on the family and, given both the brutality involved in authoritarian police states and the harsh work of most counter-espionage/counter-defection practices, it's hard on the defector. Rather than receiving the usual blackmail or simply living with the knowledge that prisoners in North Korean labor camps are not provided for by the state, it is far better to have made sure anyone whose welfare might influence one's serene mood of departure to have already been bundled over the border, at least out of reach of the country of departure's forces in the short term.

Lastly, do chose a country that might actually help you get out, or at least won't sell you out by agreeing to a deal that no reasonable person would believe the other side will stick to. ~ Since you, the would-be defector, are the key person in any defection attempt... unless you can slip the country on officially allowed business and then ditch your minders... you are probably jumping an Embassy wall somewhere in this process. The Americans and the French were time-tested favorites, but times change. Just any foreign embassy simply will not do. You need one that will (1) arrange something to sneak you in, or at least not shoot you when you cross the line; (2) at least make an effort to not mention you are inside said embassy; (3) have some motivation or sense of decency that encourages them to help you out rather than throw you back; and lastly (4) have some competence at actually getting you out of the country, whether by hook, crook, military escort to a waiting plane, or more diplomatic means. Put Canada at the top of that list generally, Republic of Korea is particularly good in Beijing, but several other nations are more than able and have a history of success... but do check the current administration of said country before throwing in with them. In the old days, nothing ruined your otherwise perfect plan to sleep over in Spaso House than discover Gerald Ford was no longer President of the USA. Same applies more generally in recent times.

So, to all of you out there planning on fleeing tyrany's grasp, here's to your successful defection... but do remember all of the above and if your situation changes while you are working up your get away...

... you'd better pick Door Number Two.

Rain Delay (Updated2)

We are getting slammed with a good old fashioned full gale today here in Japan. Massive winds and rain pulled up from the south bringing the weather systems over the Pacific onshore.

I do mean "slammed". Sheesh. (link to English language source)

Winds 90~100 kph (54~60 mph), briefly sustained, and waves on the coast up to 10 meters (34 feet).

All this because of a severe low pressure area over the western part of the Sea of Japan. Clearly, this is because North Korea sucks er... difficult.

All joking aside, it may mean that we're down here for a while if the already strained electric power grid takes another hit. No real danger as we're safe enough here inland, but it could impair 'blogging.

***

Update: OK, we're still here and intact. It was pretty spectacular last night, but no obvious signs of anything major damaged around here. A few trees down, advertising signs blown away, that sort of thing. Folks over on the coast had to deal with a lot more (like a fair number of big trucks rolled over by the wind). Still blowing a bit, but life looks headed back to normal.

***

Update2: The BBC has a wrap-up of counting up the damage today. Could be worse; could be Dallas (my sympathies to our Texas friends).

Speaking to the walls

Saw all the reports on U.S. President B. Obama's various appearances in South Korea in prelude to and at the Nuclear Security Summit... actually watched the so-called "special lecture" at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies...

...the man's reaction after going up to Observation Point Ouellette overlooking the DMZ

Earlier Sunday, Obama paid his first visit to the tense Demilitarized Zone separating North and South Korea, speaking briefly at the U.S. military camp located just outside the 2.5-mile-wide zone. What he saw from the border, Obama said, underscored the degree to which the North has suffered under a battery of sanctions aimed at punishing Pyongyang for its continued provocations.

"It's like you're in a time warp," he said. "It's like you're looking across 50 years into a country that has missed 40 years or 50 years of progress."

and so on about how backwards North Korea is. No kidding. He actually sounded surprised. That either demonstrated a jarring reassessment of his world view or was simply his saying the words he and his speechwriters thought he should say at the time. Your choice which.

...and then the usual summit "hot mic" moment, where B. Obama says something when he thinks the press isn't watching.* Those often do one of three things: insult Americans; insult an American ally, or; promise to accommodate a rival, but on terms personally favorable to B. Obama. This was no exception.

...gave a speech disguised as a "special lecture" that was vapid, self-absorbed and directed at someone other than the audience (students... who seemed rather tired of being spoken past rather than to...):

In remarks made at a university in Seoul earlier in the day, Obama sent a pointed warning to North Korea.

"Here in Korea, I want to speak directly to leaders in Pyongyang," Obama said during the special lecture at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. "Have the courage to pursue peace and give a better life to the people of North Korea."

I should note the brevity of the quote above does no justice to the long-winded and disconnected speech as a whole. It was... um... he said "um" a lot... uninspired to say the least. There was applause at times, but I can only imagine it occurred when some not-seen-on-the-video-feed indication was signalled to the audience except for that at the conclusion. That was probably a statement of relief.

All in all, a remarkable display of why November 2012 (U.S. Presidential Election) and January 2013 (Inauguration of the next U.S. administration) can not come too soon.

Hopefully something useful actually is going on behind the scenes at this summit. I think there is, but little chance of there actually being a report on any of that. Politics and Posturing are soooo much more important.

***

note * : That link is to Hot Air, a political site, commenting on the original article. The original citation is linked therein to abcgo 'blog by Jake Tapper at ABC News (USA). The direct link is unreliable in some browser/security software combinations.

Now, send in the *real* tiger!

(Guest Post from an unnamed representative of Forces of Evil Local 7...)

Excellent work, minions...

You've managed to spread confusion through the ranks of the security forces.

When they finally did see through our insidiously clever camouflage scheme, they dismissed it as harmless and cute. They think they will find the owner... in Hampshire... MWAHAHAHA... er, well.

Now to commence the second part of our plan:

Soon,

Soon,

SOON we will have the leaders of the Western World all in one place...

BWAHAHAHAHA.

If this works, think of the possibilities!

Replacing the American Museum of Natural History Lions...

release them against Turtle Bay...

HEHHEHHEH.

***

Editor's note: As we here at CompHyp possess only house cats, no tigers or lions, this post can be safely presumed to be satire. Thank you.

Michael...

... Mr. Posner...

... U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor...

... Mr. Assistant Secretary...

You might want to have a look at the list of things being done that we'd better not advertise, because I'm pretty damn sure that this is on that list. Especially not by talking about particulars. At least you showed the sense to not name providers; small accomplishment that.

You simply have to know, this isn't the safe little world of Berkeley or Geneva, nor the glory days when you were running LCIHR (note: an NGO, called "Human Rights First" now). Unless this is some scam on your part to drum up a bunch more asylum business for your 'pro-bono' law trade, or an misguided effort to justify your existence at DeptState, I see no explanation as to why this should be out in the AFP... or detailed in any DeptState reports.

Sheesh.

I was so hoping that the attention your previous little inconvenient statement to the P.R. Chinese got would have given you some scruple as to what to say, to whom, and about what.

That doesn't seem to be the case.

Thanks a whole lot, you thoughtless @#$.

I don't know what you've done with the gutsy and competent guy who did such good work back in the bad days in Uganda, but where ever you've stuffed him away, now would be a great time to change places.

***

and yes, this is something *I* wouldn't have posted about if you hadn't let it hit open media.

Priceless

How does the credit card company advertisement go...?

Sub-Saharan Mercenaries: a few hundred dollars a day, tops.

Russian-built multiple rocket launchers: a couple hundred thousand a pop.

A Nicaraguan career-misanthrope and fixture of the international blame-America set as your new U.N. envoy: priceless.

priceless = comedy gold in this case.

Way to go on the "buy some respect" move there, Moammar.

Well, that does explain...

...how some of Gordon Brown's appointees lasting longer than five minutes.

Seems that, since untoward removal of the serving Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office Humphrey back in late 1997, and then brief acting tenure in 2007 of Sybil (during the house switch that put Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling in Number 10 while Brown resided in Number 11), the official residence of the Prime Minister of Her Majesty's Government has been without a ratcatcher.

The results are becoming an obvious embarrassment to the current administration. Yet the Cameron Premiership has yet to see the obvious:

Asked about the rat during a lobby briefing, the prime minister's official spokesman said there were "no plans" to bring in a cat to deal with it.

No Plans?

This is *not* like the problem with building two large-deck aircraft carriers that will have no airplanes. This certainly isn't up to the difficulty level of dealing with the financial and social damage done by over a decade of New Labour policies.

This isn't hard, Mr. Cameron.

The resolution is even good media optics.

Consider it a sop to the Traditionalist Right of the Party, if you must.

Something with sharp claws would be of use shredding those unreasonable budgetary requests from holdover Public Servants anyway.

I'll send you the contact information for a rescue centre in London.

Get a cat.

Where's the kaboom?

Yes, well...

The miltary exercise on Yeonpyeong Island finally went off this afternoon.

The North Koreans had vowed all manner of retaliatory mayhem.

As of now, YONHAP news agency has it like this: N. Korea silent as S. Korea concludes live-fire drill near sea border.

Somewhat underwhelming to say the least. Bets are the North Koreans are laying low waiting for the South Koreans to let down their guard... which by the way was up and ready for a fight all day today.

Expect more on this story.

***

(snide aside)

Then again, the NorKs might have simply misplaced their "Illudium PU-36 Explosive Space Modulator".

h/t to Marvin the Martian for the title quote.

Grace

...Mugabe, that is... seems to be a bit sensitive about reporters asking questions.

Moreover, she's taken to the courts to claim injury to her reputation by The Standard newspaper.

*pshaw*

Given everything commonly known about Grace Mugabe, there is little chance that The Standard did any ill to her reputation.

Little chance at all.

***

Wikipedia summary of citations provided for convenience only; please see all the links for proper attribution.

140 characters being a suitable limit

Clearly my existence is now complete...

Russian Ambassador to NATO and all around fun guy Dmitry Rogozin has a Twitter account.

(Apparently he's been big on it since last year. Shows what I know, huh?)

Readers here at CompHyp know he's one of my favorite people. The wit and wisdom of the man being entirely suited to a 140 character limit, I can not wait for his latest tweets. They are my second-favorite thing in the entire world. Really. Right after my dental appointment with Dr. Christian Szell.

"Is it safe?"

Hugo over-reaches

President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is trying to get people to look anywhere else than at the massive economic and utility failures that are defining his administration of the country, and his latest ploy is to once again go looking for trouble with Colombia.

He's been frothing at the mouth on his televised appearances (which happen at a whim, often daily).

He's making more trouble by engaging in petty provocations, and with the number of low-quality militia (and regular) troops he is waving around, things are likely no longer under any real control from the Palacio de Miraflores (Miraflores Palace; the office of the national executive in Venezuela).

This isn't going over very well. A number of sources inside and associated with the Venezuelan military are saying some parts of a war have already started, and it isn't going to end well for Venezuela.

But that's not what friends of Hugo are saying; the best friend he ever had says "I know Chávez very well. He would be the last one to provoke a conflict where Venezuelan or Colombian blood could be shed."

Oh, really?

Clearly we've misjudged Hugo.

If the biggest exporter of Soviet-inspired revolutionary violence in the Western Hemisphere says Hugo is a right fellow, it must be so.

Yeah, right.

Honduras: sold out

They (the Americans) forced an agreement.

Zelaya is supposedly coming back into power for four months.

Tom Shannon did the dirty work, and then...

Backers hugged Zelaya after hearing the news and one asked him to autograph a white cowboy hat resembling the one the deposed leader always wears.

The hat had already been signed by the top U.S. envoy for the Americas, Thomas Shannon, who led a delegation to Honduras this week to pressure the two sides to resolve the crisis after months of diplomacy failed to break the stalemate.

Hope you like that job you've got, Tom.

You've worked *so* hard to keep it.

Which is good, because you couldn't get another job with your reputation right now, big guy... unless Soros is hiring... or Zelaya... he's got lots of money and friends right now...

More on this, with sources, at Fausta's Blog and La Gringa's Blogicito.

***

Personal Note: This is the voice of disappointment speaking. What we are witnessing is the death of the concept of "Truth, Justice, and the American Way"... which isn't just Superman's credo, but was a way of seeing what was right in the world. The American government didn't always strive to achieve it, but those of us who saw the universal nature of the ideals behind that saying knew that working toward them was what was right, even if it wasn't ever exclusively "American". Days like today show just how far from those ideals the current American administration has gone.

Uh huh, sure.

I am *so* believing this denial:

FARC denies giving money to Correa's campaign.

Yup. Un huh, sure. Just like the "Raul Reyes" computer files. INTERPOL sure showed those up, didn't they?

...oh, wait. That wasn't exactly how it went, was it? What say we take a look at those video files and see about how they were supposedly "manipulated"...?

Items in brief

Something to watch for:

M. Zelaya is making a show of trying to enter Honduras. Is this a gift to the interim Government of Honduras, who recognizes now they should have arrested him at the start of this, or is Zelaya just trying to get another of member of his "supporting demonstrators" killed?

Something to watch out for:

If you see a bunch of Hezbollah members digging storage bunkers in your neighborhood, you can safely presume they aren't for cold-storing goat cheese. Heck of job the UNIFIL is doing, catching this... of course, the enormous explosion might have tipped them off.

Something to watch, if you are Japanese:

With the run-up to the next Lower House Election underway, and the control of the administration of the Government of Japan at stake, it sure is good to see The Japan Times put this Page One, above the fold, today. Clearly, this is further evidence that having anko filling the space between your ears is no impediment to popular success, which should hearten the members of political classes everywhere.

Lost control of his agency...

Oh.

Oh my.

An Intelligence Service uses spy tricks to catch their boss feathering his own nest.

Gosh.

Isn't that immoral or something?

((wry grin))

Of course, *now* the perpetrators of this little palace coup are going to get to practice the political version of another part of the tradecraft set: Escape and Evasion.

Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero yesterday won cabinet approval to appoint retired general Félix Sanz to take over the agency and impose discipline.

Our proxies are freedom fighters...

There is something almost tragic about the presumption of Chadian (interim) Defense Minister Adoum Younousmi in his announcement that Chad has ended its raids into Sudan. Those would be the air raids into and ground operations along border with Sudan over the last week. We'll have to see if Sudan goes along with the whole "stopping" thing. Anyway...

He had to go and say the "M" word.

"We destroyed seven pockets of groupings of mercenaries. We hit them with our aircraft along the border, without any collateral damage," Younousmi said in a statement, using the term mercenary to describe the eastern Chadian rebels.

...

"Chad will no longer accept groups of mercenaries reorganising and rearming to attack it, wherever they are. However far it takes us, we will go by land, air and sea to destroy the mercenary bases," he said.

The report says they captured roughly a hundred of them; I'm sure we are all looking forward to seeing the parade. Now knock off with the exculpatory language. The insurgents are Chadian and Sudanese tribals, and they are all backed by either Sudan or Chad for the express purpose of destabilizing the opposite government. Their wanting to pull al-Bashir and company down makes the Chad-backed groups the popular favorite world-wide, but from a more measured view, there just isn't very much difference between "their" insurgents and "your" insurgents.

On that bit about "by Sea", never mind the fact that Chad is a landlocked nation. He probably just meant that the glorious libertarian freedom-loving patriots that make up Chad's allies in opposition to the al-Bashir regime in Sudan will cross the entirety of Sudan for the chance to engage in Naval Expeditionary Warfare on the Red Sea.

Either that, or Chad is working on a *really* long canal.

Or maybe, just maybe, he was demonstrating that...

T.I.A.

Flu to You

The mass media is full of reports on the Mexican-origin H1N1 Influenza outbreak, and it certainly is a serious matter for Mexican health officials and one that bears watching across the globe, but...

The World Health Organization (WHO) is on the case and has only gone to Condition 3 of their 6 step response scale. General screening of travelers and livestock is the prudent response at this point, and that is being done.

The U.S.A. and other countries adjacent to Mexico with limited border controls (at best) are likely at some risk, and well, the government of the U.S.A. is swinging into full-on political mode on this.

The White House plans a briefing Sunday afternoon to discuss swine flu and the government's response.
The officials who will discuss the situation include Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and the acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Richard Besser.

(bold by me)

Your doom is sealed. Sorry, Yanks; we'll miss you.

Thank you, Captain Obvious

In one of those moments where she must have thought *it needed to be said*, U.S. Secretary of State H. Clinton announced that "Japan has every right to protect and defend its territory".

No kidding, we do?

Oh, thank you for stating the obvious, Madam Secretary.

...

What, you want congratulations or something?

...

Same report (linked above) also includes the usual North Korean grandstanding about how if Japan intercepts the upcoming North Korean missile launch, they (North Korea's Army) "will consider this as the start of Japan's war of re-invasion more than six decades after the Second World War and mercilessly destroy all its interceptor means and citadels with the most powerful military means". -- source: KCNA

Oh.

Gee.

We get to take over that miserable piece of territory (again) after letting the Kim Il-sung / Kim Jong-il / Kim Next-guy show make it into a shambles for 50+ years?

No, thanks.

Wouldn't want it, wouldn't take it. Even if they paid us.

Oh.

That's right.

They don't *have* any money.

That's what the whole missiles / bombs / blackmail scam of the North Koreans is about.

Kind of implies that the North Korean definition of "the most powerful military means" is not too fearsome either.

...because it seems pretty clear that if they thought they could get away with destroying Japan, they would have tried it a long time ago.

Viktor Bout's wife testifies

In the extradition hearing in Thailand for "alleged" arms merchant Viktor Bout, his wife has offered only the best words of testimony as to his innocence:

"I believe my husband does honest business," she told the Thai court. "We have been together 17 years. There is no reason for me to believe he has done anything illegal."

Gee, love must really be blind.

Ma'am, some people have a different opinion on that point.

You might want to reconsider that relationship, there.

It is like 1977, all over again.

They can pull US$2 trillion out of thin air for dubious-to-say-the-least purposes, but there is no water in the well for Defense.

Defense gets cut. Not the war-supplemental funding (although that is likely gone soon too); the baseline budget for the whole Department of Defense.

Nitwits.

The Obama administration is positioning itself with the cabinet picks for SecState and UNAmbassador to be even *more* interventionist in foreign affairs than the Bush 43 administration was, and yet the planning documents for expenditures from Fiscal 2010 on are on the chopping block.

Why does it smell like peanuts in here all of the sudden?