It will be fine, they said...

Take a few days to deal with other things, they said...

*sheesh*

Greece voted. Down came the government, or any hope of a reasonable new one.

France voted. Sarkozy got shown the door. Bets on further German-French cooperation on the Euro crisis just got longer.

Serbia voted. Oh boy; an ex-Greater Serbia Nationalist, supposedly pro-E.U. now.

Markets dive.

Spanish 10 year notes cross to the high side of 6%.

This does not look promising. Hope I'm wrong about that.

Hold in the East, Win in the West

A Freedom for Libya thread.

The celebrations have started, albeit a bit prematurely, in Libya's capital city of Tripoli.

With that underway, it seems time to sum up how it (at least in the main) happened:

The fight in the East, shielding the TNC rebel government in Benghazi, was mostly a distraction once the line could be held. So long as Sirte remained (and *still remains*) a regime stronghold, there could be no drive on the center of power from Cyrenaica.

The fight in and around Misrata (Misurata) on the coast in the West was more pivotal, and much dirtier and protracted, but again mostly a fixing action... something that drew the regime to fight. Doing that near the coast meant they could be punished by NATO air and naval assets, but not likely ever to be a springboard to an attack on Tripoli. That would be trying to rush the front door.

But...

...a determined effort by (mostly) Berber rebels in the Nafusa Mountains won against the regime on their home ground and *that* opened the side door to Tripoli. The campaign moved to the coastal plain on 13.August and yesterday, the 21st, the show moved to the big city.

Congratulations to the Berbers, to the TNC, and a quiet tip of the hat to French and German embedded efforts to hold up NATO's end of the bargain.

Now let's see if they can bag the rest of the Qaddafi family and put an end to the war stage of this revolution.

A timely assist.

Thank you, France, for the timely assist:

Late on Wednesday, French helicopters moved in to evacuate the Japanese ambassador, Okamura Yoshifumi, after his home near the presidential residence was invaded by unidentified gunmen.

The envoy and his aides were whisked to safety in a French military camp at Port-Bouet, south of Abidjan, the French embassy said.

The French said they had acted after a request from Japan and the UN.

Once, long ago and in a very different place, our roles were reversed.

***

The BBC also has this video taken during the rescue.

***

More about the circumstances of the evacuation and a similar request for evacuation by Israel.

No Progress... No Surprise.

The Istanbul round of the P5+G negotiations (the five UNSC Permanent Members and Germany) with Iran over nuclear proliferation has ended with no progress. The two reasons for the failure can be found in the same quote from the BBC article:

EU foreign policy chief Baroness Ashton, who led the international team, said Iran had come to the talks with pre-conditions.

So long as negotiations are entrusted to a nearly-powerless lead negotiator, Iran obviously feels free to engage in non-productive distractions... after all, their goal is to negotiate for nothing and take a long time doing that.

A different dynamic is required for the forces opposing proliferation to succeed.

I would suggest taking on Amb. John Bolton, empowered with a letter authorizing military and economic coercion, to lead any future round of negotiations... but then the Iranians simply wouldn't show up and then push would come to shove.

...which it likely will, anyway. May as well be moving forward those intervention plans, folks. Bets are we will need to use them.

Hariri Tribunal issues a sealed indictment

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL; a.k.a. 'The Hariri Tribunal') investigators have finally made their official indictments.

International prosecutors have issued an indictment for the 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon has not yet released names of suspects, and a pre-trial judge will now decide whether to issue warrants.

Members of the armed Shia group Hezbollah are expected to be named.

Any bets on how long the secret stays secret? Just asking...

Anyway, the political maneuvers to frame this matter have been underway since Hizb'allah (Hezbollah) walked out of the governing coalition last week. They are hoping to get a compliant administration to refuse further cooperation with the STL. Kind of like gangsters trying to buy off a prosecution, that.

In a pleasant manifestation of stated international support for stability as a new Prime Minister is being selected, the U.S. Embassy has been trying to have some understanding (or small support) of the process. Let's just say the guys on the other side are taking notice:

At the weekend, US ambassador Maura Connelly held talks with Christian MP Nicolas Fattoush - seen as a pivotal figure in the attempt to build a new coalition.

Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami summoned the envoy and accused her of "interference in the internal affairs of Lebanon".

The US strenuously denied the allegations, state department spokesman Philip Crowley telling AFP news agency: "We are respecting Lebanon's sovereignty and we would hope other countries would as well."

Don't worry too much; Ambassador Connelly and the staff there must well know that A. al-Shami is only in that job because his Harakat Amal (Amal Movement) party is hand-in-glove (for now) with the Hizb'allah political wing. Best to simply receive the accusation and just smile quietly. Let Foggy Bottom handle the denials duty. Gives Crowley something to do with his spare time.

The big issue in this, of course, is what will Hizb'allah do if they think a government supported by Saudi Arabia, France, and or the United States is going to come into power. Unless it will be a terribly weak coalition, one with those supporters is not going to back off the quest to punish Hariri (Sr.) 's assassins. That will leave Hizb'allah only with its lifeline allies of Iran, Syria and anyone playing for their team, then Amal and the turncoat faction led by Michel Aoun siding with it in-country.

That isn't a sit-pat hand in the allies department, and there isn't much other than offering safe exile that they could do if they wait until the STL makes the charges formal and public. The expected play will be to continue to short-circuit the process: If bringing down the administration won't stop things, then the next step is probably either a move to *make* Hizb'allah the government (a coup or civil war) or the threat of a external conflict of sufficient size to distract attention (gee, another Hizb-Israeli War might do). But I'm not sure that latter choice would work. The Saudis for one would happily fight Hizb'allah to the last Israeli, if you get my meaning, and such a conflict going regional would simply end any sense in the Gulf Cooperation Council that the Iranian regime could be tolerated any longer.

Avoiding that and getting the accused to trial may be mutually exclusive.

I *think* it would be worth it, though, especially if those still-sealed indictments reach out beyond Hizb'allah... maybe even outside Lebanon...

Gbagbo demands UNOCI, LICORNE leave

It's good to want things, I'm told. Even if you can't have them.

Ivory Coast's Gbagbo tells UN, French forces to leave Ivory Coast.

ABIDJAN, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The government of Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo has told the United Nations and French peacekeeping missions to leave the country, escalating a dispute over last month's elections.

"The government demands the departure of the UNOCI and LICORNE forces in Ivory Coast and is opposed to any renewal of their mandate," said spokeswoman Jacqueline Oble, reading a statement over state television.

"UNOCI has interfered seriously in the internal affairs of Ivory Coast," she said.

UNOCI, as mentioned here previously, is the U.N. peacekeeping mission to Côte d'Ivoire; LICORNE, a.k.a. Operation Unicorn, is the French military intervention in Côte d'Ivoire that remains separate from the U.N. force and under French control.

This is looking more and more like a "forced removal" situation... forced removal of L. Gbagbo from power, that is. Most unfortunate, that. Then again...

T.I.A.

That was what they wanted...

The French and German governments had made it fairly clear that they wanted the new European Union President as defined under the Lisbon Treaty to be someone limited to greeting foreign dignitaries and chairing summits.

That was what they wanted...

Van Rompuy, 62, is a technocrat with a penchant for haiku poetry. A Dutch-speaking Christian Democrat, he is unknown abroad, and even in Belgium he keeps a low profile. Or as a Belgian commentator recently put it: "Van Rompuy opens his mouth only to breathe."

...and that was what they got. Herman Van Rompuy, currently Prime Minister of Belgium.

Same idea, but more lefty, for the E.U. Foreign Policy brief:

Ashton, who has never been elected to public office and is largely unknown outside Britain, had seemed an unlikely choice. She won the foreign policy brief after British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and left-leaning leaders from Spain, Greece, Slovakia, Slovenia, Portugal and Austria decided to put her name forward.

Ashton, 53, was a junior minister and leader of the House of Lords in 2007 and had a history as an anti-nuclear weapons campaigner.

She has barely caused a ripple during her year as EU trade chief and has no known foreign policy experience.

Catherine Ashton of Britain, currently the E.U. Trade Commissioner.

So it appears that Henry Kissinger's famous question regarding Europe... (paraphrased) "who do I pick up the phone and call?" is still unanswered.

Some one is there to take the call now, but they appear to be a message center worker.

***

The article linked above has a line saying "German Chancellor Angela Merkel and often-outspoken Premier Nicolas Sarkozy of France did not reveal a preference before the meeting." Technically correct. Other sources have confirmed that the Von Rompuy choice was predetermined by Franco-German agreement before the nomination.

Angola Arms Case Convictions

Good News: there have finally been some convictions in the French trial of 42 individuals accused of participating in an illegal scheme that delivered French armaments to the government of Angola during the last part of the Angolan Civil War.

Bad News: of the four major convictions handed down, the two most punishing are six years imprisonment... on the two people who were being tried in absensia. Good luck serving those detention orders. Another got a suspended sentence... the one named Mitterrand. Gee, that's a shock, isn't it? Only former Interior Minister Charles Pasqua got hit with a jail term he is expected to serve... one year. That's nothing to sniff at, but not a big penalty either.

Ah well, at least the precedent has been set of being able to get convictions on Arms Trafficking / Bribery charges in modern France. Wonder if that means that the case of the French Frigate Scandal will ever be resolved (on the French side)?

Three articles worth reading

Here are three good articles, on things that likely won't make it to your nightly news... but that you should be aware of...

1) While one French national kidnapped in Somalia earlier this summer has made a successful escape, the other "security advisor" is still being held. al-Shabaab has issued their demands upon which they condition his release. Note that (they)

...say they will free the man if France stops its support for the weak UN-backed government and ends its anti-piracy patrols in Somali waters.

The group also wants African Union peacekeepers withdrawn from Mogadishu.

(Bold added by me)

Gee... and all this time we've been told that the Islamists crack down on piracy when ever they take over a region of the country. Uh huh.

2) The finds of offshore oil continue to roll in. This time, it is an extension of the partly-defined Gulf of Guinea formations off the coast of Sierra Leone. It looks to be fairly big, but... that region is just barely post-conflict and has some of the weakest institutions of governance around. Developing these resources without enabling an entire new generation of Kleptocrats is going to take some responsible conduct. Given the usual observation ("T.I.A.") that seems unlikely, but I'd love to be wrong on that.

3) Lastly, here is a superb summary of the Kleptocracy in Venezuela which names the names and calls it as it is. We've touched on parts of this here at CompHyp, but this puts it all in a single picture... and it is *not* a pretty one. It is also one of the few analyses I've seen in open sources that points out the defining nature of Hugo Chavez' relationship with his cronies: They profit so long as his inherent cowardice in the face of personal danger does not leave them twisting in the wind.

2Q rebound... but not for all

It doesn't quite count as an "I told you so", but the economic downturn of the last 4 quarters seems to have run its course right on schedule in those economies that haven't the reliance on the financial sector that Great Britain and the U.S. of A. have... or the degree of singleminded interventionism on the part of the government in "doing something" about the economy.

France and Germany exited the recession in the 2nd Quarter.

There is the concern that, even in those countries, the banking sector in particular is dependent on government protections and much of the rise in consumer activity is tied to some degree of stimulus spending... terms like "very fragile" are still being used to describe the recovery.

No such love is being shown to Gordon Brown's extravagant effort to mortgage the nation to "save" the economy, and there should still be alarms sounding over both the pace of new government spending in the U.S. *and* the need to sell an extraordinary volume of bonds before September 30th to pay for what is committed already... that bond sale succeeds, things may hold together for a while longer... *if it fails*, though, the Americans can expect a currency exchange collapse of epic proportions. Think 70 en (Yen) to the US$. Remember that the current ~95 to the dollar is almost 20 percent below nominal par for the currencies.

Yes, that last is a nightmare scenario.

Yes, if the Obama administration does not learn some economics very very quickly, that is where things are headed. Running the printing presses will do that to even the world's strongest economy.

All the petro-economies and the East Asian trading nations are not going to be happy if (when?) their foreign exchange holding devalue by another 20%.

UNCLOS Sea Bed filing deadline

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) stipulates that all claims to be made for sea bed or continental shelf extensions to Exclusive Economic Zones allowed under the treaty be filed by 13.May 2009. (excepting Antarctic Claims, which remain deferred)

Well, that's tomorrow and it seems that the claims are pouring in.

The ones to watch are: the Russian claims (all of them); the Argentine vs. U.K. counter-claims in the South Atlantic, and; the various mid-ocean claims extending from singular or limited island holdings... France and the U.K. have a lot of these.

The "good neighbor" award already went to Norway for filing early and in agreement with most all its neighboring states, but a close second goes to the Irish / U.K. / French / Spanish joint filing over the division of rights in the Bay of Biscay and the extended continental shelf west from there. Bravo!

I've got your "enduring resolution"

profane reference unstated as the implication alone is sufficient

Sri Lanka is about to win through in the war against the LTTE terrorist thugs. That means it must be time for the LTTE to try to sucker the U.N. and Internationalists everywhere into saving them from the much deserved fate of defeat that faces them.

How about this for an "enduring resolution"?
STOP HOLDING YOUR OWN PEOPLE HOSTAGE AND SURRENDER.

By the way, that above-linked AFP article is a bit short on its treatment of Akashi Yasushi (Y. Akashi)'s recent role in the matter. *This* AP version of the story is a bit better. He has in fact made several comments, only one of which asked for more consideration as to the fate of those 50,000 (10~20,000?) people still held behind LTTE lines, functionally as human shields. He did visit some of the refugee camps, where the more than 110,000 people already rescued are seeking protection and aid, and asked the government to do more in concert with international relief organizations. However, he also got cornered by some questions and...

(Y. Akashi) also called on the Tamil Tigers to "change its attitude" and let civilians crammed into the small patch of territory the rebels still hold to move out to safety.

Akashi also praised fund-raising efforts across the country for the refugees, which he described as "heartwarming."

"People from the south of Sri Lanka, most of them (majority) Sinhalese, are collecting money and goods for the (Tamil) refugees from the north," he said. "I hope such harmony and friendship will continue in the future."

OK, so he is playing both sides. What do you expect from "a politically appointed International Civil Servant at the Headquarters of the United Nations Secretariat in New York", anyway?

Fair Disclosure: Y. Akashi is one of the people vilified by this author for his overclaim of usefulness in the Cambodian U.N. intervention and his shameful role in the Balkan Wars (specifically his role in leaving Srebrenica to be massacred by Serbian forces during the Bosnia War). He's not going to get much of a fair hearing from me on much of anything without having someone outside his little Turtle Bay world back him up.

ANZAC Day; Camerone Day

With all the distractions of the last few days, I've been unacceptably lax about keeping track of the date. ANZAC Day came and went (25.April) without the much-deserved 'thank you' that called for. Both countries are still doing their part: the Kiwis are about to send back in their Special Operations troops to Afghanistan (they've been in before) and the Joint Task Forces / ISAF will have another battalion of Diggers in the line soon as well (maybe 700 more troops in total, between 450 regulars, support forces and then Commonwealth SAS). Bless you and thank you, all.

I'm sure that there were other worthy memorials recently as well, and my regrets for any oversight on my part.

***

But come the end of April, there is one day that never slips past...

...the brave stand of Capitaine Danjou and the 65...

...at Hacienda Camarón, April 30th, 1863. Camerone Day.

"Nous avons des cartouches et ne nous rendrons pas!"
Jean Danjou, Capitaine, Légion étrangère

Gazprom cuts the flow through Ukraine

This has been a developing story over the last few days, well covered in the mass media. The Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which is functionally an arm of the Putin-Medvedev regime (or some say, Putin and Medvedev work for Gazprom), has been locked in a dispute with Ukraine over price increases and Ukraine has responded by planning an increase in transhipment fees for gas moving through to Europe.

The fight has gotten ugly enough that Gazprom simply ordered a suspension of deliveries to Ukraine.

But with Gazprom cutting the taps and the pipeline pressure down, Officials in Sofia say that Bulgaria is getting no gas and that Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey are getting no gas from the via-Ukraine pipeline. (Turkey has access to a second line under the Black Sea, however)

A panic has now swept through the EU offices in Brussels, and they are demanding (not asking nicely) for a summit meeting with Russia and Ukraine. Yes, the document even reads like an ultimatum to restore flow.

Good luck on that.

For anyone who didn't see this author's shot at Gazprom and European collaborators back last November, perhaps a more current observation would be of interest. National Public Radio of the U.S.A. is running a three part story plus an overview article on Gazprom and Russia's Foreign Policy that is pretty damning in its message.

American President R. Reagan once warned against European dependence on Russian energy sources.

He was right, then and now.

Brazil signs on for that Nuclear Submarine

In an EURO 8.6 billion (~US$12 billion) arms deal, Brazil has gained technology transfer and co-production assistance on the purchase of 50 EC725 helicopters and 5 submarines, #5 of that procurement to be nuclear-powered.

We've mentioned here, before, about how important it is for Brazil to feel capable of its own defense, and how friendly countries should find ways to help.

This is a huge leap forward in manufacturing technology for Brazil, and a marked improvement in military capabilities (when they are all delivered).

Heck of a successful sales visit, President Sarkozy.