Showing posts with label Balkans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Balkans. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Mladic trial opens

That would be one Ratko Mladic, General of the VRS (Army of the Republika Srpska; Bosnian Serb Army), and the trial would be his at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) on eleven counts of War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity.

The BBC has the opening day report.

This case, and the simultanious parallel trial of Bosnia Serb political leader Radovan Karadzic, may finally conclude the effort made during the 2006 trial of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic; To once and for all mark the horrors of the Serbian war against Bosnia as State Policy:
The war the prosecution described was not one of ancient ethnic hatreds. It was a carefully planned criminal enterprise that was well orchestrated, centrally directed and state-sponsored.
Not only at Srebrenica.

The whole 1992-1995 war against Bosnia-Hercegovina was like that.

Here is a summary of the charges, as filed in the 2011 indictment. (Source document available as a .pdf file linked in that article.)

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

It will be fine, they said...

Take a few days to deal with other things, they said...

*sheesh*

Greece voted. Down came the government, or any hope of a reasonable new one.

France voted. Sarkozy got shown the door. Bets on further German-French cooperation on the Euro crisis just got longer.

Serbia voted. Oh boy; an ex-Greater Serbia Nationalist, supposedly pro-E.U. now.

Markets dive.

Spanish 10 year notes cross to the high side of 6%.

This does not look promising. Hope I'm wrong about that.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Now, it is official

I've been waiting to post a thread on this, because I just wasn't 100% certain extradition was going to happen. Now, it is official:
Former Bosnian Serb army chief Ratko Mladic has been flown to the Netherlands, where he is to be tried at a UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague.
Glad they found him.

Glad they had the fortitude to arrest him.

Very, very glad that justice may now be done.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

and... Serbia?

Note to readers: you have not time travelled back to 1848. There are no riots spreading across Europe... as of yet.

But no competent insurrectionist ever lets a good opportunity go to waste. That, by the way, is the explanation for the mass anti-government protests in Belgrade.

Watch out for the folks behind this:
Clearly referring to events in Egypt and Tunisia, Mr Nikolic told the protesters: "Elsewhere in the world people are telling governments they should listen to the people.

"I know you are disenchanted and bitter over this dishonest government which is tormenting you. Let us torment government instead."

He warned that if elections were not called in two months' time, he would begin a sit-in outside parliament.

Mr Nikolic - formerly the head of the ultra-nationalist Radical Party - founded the Serbian Progressive Party less than three years ago. But his popularity is now such that he poses a serious threat to the government, our (BBC's) correspondent says.
(bold added by me)

That would be the Srpska Radikalna Stranka (Serbian Radical Party; SRS), a group famously blinded by their nationalist and exclusionist thinking. In fairness, Tomislav Nikolic did break with them in 2008 to form the Srpska Napredna Stranka (Serbian Progressive Party; SNS) but it isn't really clear how far toward moderate he and his party have moved. They talk a good game, but make no compromises on Kosovo or Bosnia matters... indeed, would reopen Croatian disputes if they could. Consider the jury to still be out on this lot.

But they might just scare a little good sense into the current administration. They could use a little something to concentrate their attention on doing their jobs.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

High Representative for Bosnia intervenes

The Republika Srpska (Serb Republic; RS; Serbian mini-state in the Bosnian Federation) has refused to follow its obligations to continue to cede certain authorities to the central government of the Bosnia and Herzegovina as part of the continued integration of the country, and this week things have come to a head.

The High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina (the Dayton Peace Accord -chartered arbiter for issues within the country as a whole) has by need intervened and annulled a set of RS parliamentary decisions that they refused to revoke themselves. The deadline for them to act was June 11th.

Maybe this time he got their attention, which would be good as without progress on unification, we may find ourselves right back where we were before December 14, 1995.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

What could possibly go wrong?

The United States government has sent Vice President Joe Biden on a three-day tour of the Balkans...
Indeed, Biden is the highest-level U.S. official to visit Bosnia since President Bill Clinton's trip there in 1999. Biden and Solana are meeting on May 19 with rival political leaders from the country's Bosniak, Croatian, and Serbian communities. Biden also plans to deliver a speech in the Bosnian parliament.

...

On May 20, Biden is to travel to Belgrade, a leg of his tour that is seen as critical to easing tensions in the region.

...

The final leg of Biden's tour comes on May 21 when he visits Pristina, the capital of Kosovo. Biden is expected to urge the ethnic Albanian majority's leaders in Kosovo to build a functioning and effective state and to protect the rights of minorities, especially Serbs.
and coincidentally,

A spokesman for former-President Bill Clinton told the Miami Herald that Mr. Clinton is to be the U.N. Special Envoy to Haiti, which is noteworthy in particular as...
The U.N. currently has no special envoy for Haiti, and it is expected that Clinton will travel there at least four times a year as part of the UN's effort to build on the momentum created by his March visit.

...

The hope is that Clinton's attention -- and fundraising power -- will help to further galvanize international support in a country plagued by donor fatigue, lack of international coordination and a history of political instability.

The U.N., which has 9,000 peacekeepers on the ground, has argued that without long-term development all of the recent gains can be quickly washed away.
In fairness, Mr. Clinton has done a stellar turn in fundraising for disaster relief, and the République d'Haïti certainly needs all the help it can get after suffering two direct hits from hurricanes last season.

But do remember that Mr. Clinton is responsible for putting Jean-Bertrand Aristide back in power, and history has not been very kind about how that all worked out over the long term.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

A tale of two protests

It is "compare and contrast" time again here at CompHyp.

Two countries attempting to come to terms with their condition on the edge of Russian influence (and intervention) have been faced with popular protests against the elected governments' hold on power.

Moldova has had an ugly round of demonstrations where the intendedly peaceful protest against what was very likely a rigged election turned into riots against the government. Things got so bad that the Parliament and the Presidential Residence were stormed by rioters. The matter has turned into an international incident as well, with allegations of Romanian manipulations of the protests being called an attempted coup d'etat. Diplomatic relations have now ruptured as Moldova has sent the Romanian Ambassador packing.

and then...

The Republic of Georgia has seen a massive, but smaller than expected, Rally by the political opposition against the Saakashvili administration. These protests are passionate, but lack the violence (and government crackdown) of the Moldovan situation, at least for now. The protesters claim they will stay in the streets until President M. Saakashvili resigns. The test will come if the protests grow, or turn violent.

Both situations bear watching, and both could bode ill in a number of ways for future of the nations in question.

...and never forget who stands to benefit most from instability in both regions.

Monday, March 23, 2009

The Weekly N&C for March 23rd, 2009

Recognition of Not Recognizing

The tale begins long ago, but now winds its way around the issue of Kosovo.

For the modern Reino de España, the Kingdom of Spain, has chosen differently than most of its fellow European Union members and has refrained from offering recognition to the new country of Kosovo. What makes this seem, at first blush, odd is that Spain has been one of the main contributors to NATO and E.U. military forces employed in the Balkans. First arriving as a part of the earliest ill-starred peacekeeping effort in Bosnia, Spanish Army forces have played an important role in the Stabilization Force there and the KFOR intervention in Kosovo… up to now.

Now (as in happening this last week) Carme Chacón, the Spanish Minister of Defense, has made headlines by announcing a withdrawal of Spanish troops from Kosovo while on a “morale-building” visit to said troops. This came as quite a surprise to the NATO planning staff, as they had received no notice of such withdrawal, pending or otherwise. When the feathers began to fly, the Spanish government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (hereafter referred to as Zapatero, as is his usage) took an all-too-accomodating-sounding position:
"Carme Chacón will meet Nato's secretary-general next week to explain the reasons for the withdrawal and to reach a joint decision on a timetable," Mr Zapatero's spokesman said. "The decision to leave has been made but we can be flexible over the timetable, be it one year, 18 months or eight months."
…which would have all been fine and good had it been mentioned *before* the Defense Minister gave her speech. The report cited above does mention that Ms. Chacón did call NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer prior to the announcement (at some unspecified time) but that none of the NATO staff had received word, nor had U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates or the various diplomatic offices involved received word through regular channels. These are not people who appreciate being surprised by their friends; surprised in a bad way, that is.

So the remarks were made too abruptly, perhaps? The Spanish government reconsidered the tone and the pace? Not hardly. In further remarks today, Ms. Chacón said Spain is sticking to its decision, although in fairness she now included that the withdrawal would be gradual and in coordination with NATO.

The explanation was that it made no sense for Spanish soldiers to help build a state the independence of which Madrid did not recognize. Fair enough.

One should, however, not expect to be treated as a major part of NATO and the E.U. if one insists upon having a foreign policy at odds with the declared goals of both organizations. There is a price to be paid for choosing to act that way, a price in relationships.

So why, on this matter and at this time, does the Zapatero administration chose to take it on the chin in the relationship department? This is not even as obvious a case of (supposed) self-interest as Spain’s abandonment of the Iraq Occupation. In that case, they could at least claim to be making a choice based on the change in government policy that came with the election of Mr. Zapatero’s government. This seems less influenced by any change, and more a case of political opportunism to try and restore some of the flagging domestic popularity of the administration. But that does not cover the most basic of issues here: Why does Spain not recognize Kosovo’s independence?

The answer in a large part can be found in Comunidad Foral de Navarra, or in Basque Nafarroako Foru Erkidegoa, “The Foral Community of Navarre”, where Foral is an antiquated term describing a self-governing area nominally within a Kingdom. The land upon which Navarre now exists as one of the Autonomous Communities within Spain was formerly in-part the Kingdom of Navarre… which, like much of medieval Iberia, was a separate nation… and unlike much of the rest of Iberia, is the homeland of the Basque. Here is a larger map of what the Basque nationalists of modern day consider Euskal Herria (“Basque Country”). Note that the green area is the modern Spanish region of Navarra, the purple area is the adjacent Spanish regions (including one identically named “Basque Country”, or in Spanish “País Vasco”), and the yellow area is what was old Lower Navarre which is now part of France.

The Kingdom of Spain, after all, is the first great example of ‘an Empire of Kingdoms’. From the unification of the thrones of Aragon and Castile in 1469 as the Kingdom of the Spains on to present day, Spain has always been a summation of the nations within it. In some particular cases, it has been a most uneven and fractious summation. Cf. Catalunya for an equally passionate but less violent example.

Violent?

Oh yes. What makes the case of the Basques measurably different than that of the other nationalities hoping and working toward a U.K.-like devolution of Spain is that since 1959 the most prominent force espousing Basque Independence is the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA; Basque: “Basque Homeland and Freedom”), an armed insurgency of the Marxist-Leninist inclination. Note that I said “most prominent”; there are plenty of perfectly rational Basque Nationalist that play in the political scene, and most of them seek only an improvement to the autonomy in place (via the 1978 Constitution) or reassembled Basque Homeland as a unitary component of some super-state, perhaps most likely a properly confederated European Union. But the ETA plants bombs, shoots people, and dreams of driving the non-indigenous out of “their lands”… which if that sounds all too much like anti-colonialism as applied to Africa, well, it is the same rewriting of the actual history as was done in those cases too and by the same red pen of Soviet influence. While the day of glorious people’s anti-colonial idealist resulting-in-a-socialist-paradise revolution has pretty much gone into the dustbin of history, the ETA is still in business.

So for any one still in doubt as to why Spain thinks that recognizing Kosovo’s Independence is a bad idea, just imagine applying to Spain an extension of the same rules that were applied to Serbia. The two cases are utterly dissimilar in modern day; no Spanish jack-boots have gone into the Basque lands with murder and reprisal in mind since 1987 when the “dirty war” of the Grupos Antiterroristas de Liberación (GAL; "Antiterrorist Liberation Group") paramilitaries was brought to an end. Investigations and trials brought a host of government sponsors of the GAL to justice and no Spanish government has countenanced such since then. But there is that history there, and if the same standards as used in Kosovo were applied by a shall-we-say-less-forgiving external authority (like an altered form of the U.N., perhaps) playing the role of NATO in Kosovo, then Spain could find itself short at least a couple of Pyrenean providences.

So with that in mind, find a way to forgive Spain for its most-impolitic departure from KFOR. They can not, in any good conscience, remain there now that the military phase is past and the matter has become one of nation-building.

Forgive. But do not forget.

Remember that no state can be asked to go against its clear national interest without some pretty serious justification.

Remember that the Ejército de Tierra (Land Army of Spain) can and will fight well, when their government lets them.

If there is one thing, one blessedly simple thing, that could come out of this utterly avoidable political debacle, let it be that the NATO nations doing the fighting and dying in Afghanistan today (and maybe somewhere else tomorrow) use this issue as a diplomatic crowbar to pry off the government shackles that keep the Army (and Navy and Air Force) from making a full contribution to NATO efforts in the Global War on Terror.

They said they can’t contribute any longer in Kosovo, based on principle. Very fine then, let us see them contribute to the fullest in the GWOT, based on principle.

***
End Notes:

All links embedded in the text.

The following General Information on items referenced in the text above is from Wiki-p. As always with Wikipedia, but especially on subjects of political sensitivity like this, check the sources on all items.

General Information on Reino de España, the Kingdom of Spain

General Information on Comunidad Foral de Navarra, Nafarroako Foru Erkidegoa, the Foral Community of Navarre, Spain

General Information on Euskal Herria, the Basque “national region”

Historical Information on the medieval period Kingdom of Navarre

General Information on the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) militant nationalist group

General Information on the Grupos Antiterroristas de Liberación (GAL) paramilitary group

General Information on the Ejército de Tierra (Land Army of Spain)

General Information on Kosovo Force (KFOR), the NATO-led military intervention in Kosovo

Personality Profile: Carme Chacón Piqueras, Minister of Defense, Spain

Personal Profile: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Prime Minster, President of the Government of Spain

Monday, March 16, 2009

What part of "independent"...

...do they not understand?

In what could turn into a(nother) ugly dispute, Serbia's Minister for Kosovo ...yes, they still have one at the cabinet level... and his entourage were refused entry into Kosovo by the Kovovar Border Police.

They were planning to hold a parliamentary committee meeting in the town Ranilug, which while populated in the majority by Serbs is inside the recognized borders of Kosovo. Recognized, that is, in the general sense... Serbia has yet to recognize Kosovo's independence, unlike 56 other countries including the U.S.A. and most all of the E.U.

Now, let's be clear: if the territory of Kosovo was occupied by a foreign power like South Ossetia or the Northern Territories are, then this author would be cheering the Serbian government for making the attempt at re-asserting itself. The problem here is that while the U.N. charter does not recognize occupation / annexation by force, it does allow for territorial devolution (Independence of a territory from a larger state) at the will of the population there resident. No, relocation or removal ("ethnic cleansing") of the previous population and then repopulating it with one's own nationals doesn't count. Cf. Kaliningrad and non-Israeli Palestine for the usual arguments there, but there are lots more. Kosovo doesn't fit the description.

What the Serbs could, and should, be doing is a steady diplomatic effort to get some recognition of minority rights made a permanent part of the constitution of Kosovo... and then get on with recognizing the situation as it is. A beneficial accord that would allow for Serbian pride and history to be commemorated in the "Birthplace of Serbia" would be the right thing to do. Throw out the memory of the last 50 years and celebrate the wonder of the survival of the Serbian people over the last 630 years.

Otherwise, well, let's just say that there are *lots* of people around the Balkans who have an axe to grind with the Serbs, and it would be a shame if Serbia found itself surrounded by an inherently hostile alliance.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

"I cannot believe that these efforts will remain without results..."

Neither can I. The only concern that comes to mind is that somehow he gets into Russia and gets the ultra-Slav-nationalist support, but even that seems unlikely any more.

Hunting down Ratko Mladic.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Kosovo, again.

Things always seem to go wrong in the Balkans when the world is looking somewhere else. This matter in Kosovo is no exception:

NATO peacekeepers warn Mitrovica violence could spread.

There have been recurring incidents in the Serb-majority district since December 30th of last year, with two explosions occuring on January 3rd. The result is that both Albanian and Serb ethnic elements are now mounting vigils to guard their neighborhoods, and the NATO peacekeepers have brought up re-enforcements with a standing order to keep a lid on things.

Let's hope they get it right this time.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Gazprom cuts the flow through Ukraine

This has been a developing story over the last few days, well covered in the mass media. The Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which is functionally an arm of the Putin-Medvedev regime (or some say, Putin and Medvedev work for Gazprom), has been locked in a dispute with Ukraine over price increases and Ukraine has responded by planning an increase in transhipment fees for gas moving through to Europe.

The fight has gotten ugly enough that Gazprom simply ordered a suspension of deliveries to Ukraine.

But with Gazprom cutting the taps and the pipeline pressure down, Officials in Sofia say that Bulgaria is getting no gas and that Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey are getting no gas from the via-Ukraine pipeline. (Turkey has access to a second line under the Black Sea, however)

A panic has now swept through the EU offices in Brussels, and they are demanding (not asking nicely) for a summit meeting with Russia and Ukraine. Yes, the document even reads like an ultimatum to restore flow.

Good luck on that.

For anyone who didn't see this author's shot at Gazprom and European collaborators back last November, perhaps a more current observation would be of interest. National Public Radio of the U.S.A. is running a three part story plus an overview article on Gazprom and Russia's Foreign Policy that is pretty damning in its message.

American President R. Reagan once warned against European dependence on Russian energy sources.

He was right, then and now.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Cat.Bag.Out

Remember this?

Mis-step in the Kosovo Dance.

Well, it seems that Ian Johnson at the Wall Street Journal managed to put the pieces together, in his story today about the EULUX law-enforcement aid program deployment.

Nice job. Wonder who let the Journal review the 2005 BND report on the Kosovar government, eh?

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Mis-step in the Kosovo Dance

Just in case Kosovo has fallen out of the view-finder for you, here is a little update: The EU, the UN authorities, and the Government of Kosovo are still having trouble following the same music, and there is still a Serbian dancer involved (via the UN) in the northern part of the country.

Plenty of room for trouble, for ill-deeds, for misunderstandings, and for plain old-fashioned mis-steps.

This is going to take some explaining, to say the least.