The latest from RFE/RL tells a predictable story...
And the ancient town of Akhalgori -- which dates back to the 2nd century BC --- is suddenly being called "Leningori" once again.
I'm not seeing an R2P explanation for Russian intervention working any more.
On the diplomatic front, Georgia has had enough (finally) of niceties. The Embassy has been recalled from Moscow, diplomatic relations are "severed" as of the 29th of August. Consular functions are still available in both countries.
The E.U. meets on Monday with Georgia at the top of the agenda.
On the Black Sea side of issues, the commercial port at Poti is back in reduced operations, but the naval harbor and considerable facilities space are not able to be used because they were mined. De-mining experts are being withheld until the Russian checkpoints are removed from the adjacent area (to prevent encounter risk). That may have to change if the Russians don't move out shortly.
Oblique note:
Looks like H. Chavez did follow the playbook after all.
Chavez supports Russian recognition of (Georgian) Rebel States
Way to go Hugo. Today... Georgia, tomorrow... Guyana.
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17 comments:
Of course, Hugo Chavez is like a having a good old joy time with this!
He just feels like he is omnipotent now! His rhetoric! Him and his compadres! Minions!
I will send you the latest email I received from my bud in Venezuela.
Not happy campers there!
You totally make me laugh, LDG!
When I go back and read your threads, your sarcasm is so funny! It only takes me about fifty times to figure it out!
You are so brilliant as I told moi's daughter today!
I love you! You are so fun!
xxxxxx
Boris is flexing his muscles and dreaming again of "Empire." Russification is an insidious way of displacing inhabitants of an area for occupation purposes. Happened in many of the former Soviet countries, thus now giving Russia it's questionable excuse of using force to "protect" it's citizens. Despicable to say the least.
Maybe you already mentioned this, but I can't help thinking "sudetenland" when I read about Georgia. Will the west appease another monster?
On the other hand, I don't relish the idea of a global war between nuclear powers...
@will
re: "sudetenland"
There's a reason that example comes to mind. It has been mentioned in context, but I avoided hauling it out whole cloth before now simply because a number of cited sources here have covered that ground.
For those of you who might not recognize the reference, the German claim to intervention in the Sudetenland area of (then) Czechoslovakia led to the dismantlement of the entire country, with bit parts then running off to Poland, and the Hungarian and German Nazis taking apart the rest by functional annexation. The Munich Agreement of 1938 condoning this is cited as the first of the Western Betrayal(s) and is the usual example of failed appeasement in modern diplomacy.
The parallels in the first part (the Russian claims vs. Georgia) very closely fit the same model. Hopefully, we learned something last time and the second part will play out differently.
Slightly off topic, but germaine to the International reaction to Russia's move(s):
R. Kagan at the WSJ
key point: today's 'Realists' aren't being, well, realistic.
@Susan
forgive my delayed reply to yours, above.
Thank you for the piece of e-mail, and for your kind words.
I look forward to the possibility of your daughter joining us here. Having seen some of her work, I am certain that she will be able to make interesting comments and counter-points to some of the lines of discussion here.
Belgium -EU today is postponing all talks with Russia until they pull out completely?
@Susan
The AP says "a threat to delay" such talks.
@LDG--
yes, this would be me, not familiar to will's statement, referral to sudentenland...
now I know! and definitely, I see those parallels as you mentioned.
thanks will and LDG
and "Russia warned the West on Monday against supporting Georgia's leadership and called for an arms embargo against the nation until a different government is in place in the ex-Soviet republic."
My-- this just goes on and on and on!
@Susan
re: arms embargo -- they are going back to the old Bosnia playbook. Try to keep the legit government from defending itself against the heavily-armed interloper. It was (Bosnia unarmed -- Serbia heavily armed) last time. They want (Georgia unarmed -- Russian Proxy Forces heavily armed). That dog won't hunt a second time, given the outcome of the last go.
re: thanks
always happy to do my part. most welcome.
in other words-- words by arrogant assertion-- chest-thumping
That's what the "warning" is, yes.
Now challenge time again:
Is Russia making such a warning because it *can't* get what it wants by force without unacceptable consequences? or...
Is Russia making such a warning because it is *the least* it will accept in resolution to the situation, and if they don't get it they'll run over the rest of Georgia, damn the consequences?
LDG--
I honestly don't know if Russia is heeding to warnings-- given their great economy and the dependence of the others for oil, I can't even assume Russia will back off as Russia seems to continue to play this prolong this conflict game! Putin's self- grandoise is what is scary!
@Susan
I don't buy the argument that Russia "has a great economy right now". They have incredible cash inflow from resource exports, and somewhat favorable exchange rates going for them, but the rest of their economy is cra... er... less than productive or stable.
Others dependence (for now) on Russian energy supplies, now that is a problem. No surprise there.
Also:
My question above was about warning Russia was *giving*.
Your other point though, is right: no listening is happening on their part.
Yes, Russia's warnings are part of their bullying tactics-
Since Russia is so adamant about the gov't in Georgia being replaced, why not hand over the list of those Russia wants in place of? (shaking head)
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