Whew

When reports came in of yet another large earthquake of Aceh, Indonesia, it looked like things were going to be pretty bad. 8.6 magnitude and only about 500km southwest, out in the Indian Ocean in a very bad place for generating tsunamis.

Now, a bit after those reports, major wire services are all reporting (for example)

"There have been no immediate reports of damage or casualties."

...even with an aftershock above 8 magnitude, things look to have been mostly survivable. Unconfirmed pictures from Aceh show some damage, though.

There was a tsunami generated by the main 'quake, but it was small (10cm at one location in Thailand).

Whew.

Places you may not be watching (April Edition)

There is a lot of Libya Fatigue happening in the media... and about the "Arab Spring" in general... and West Africa's continued spasms are just passe'... it makes it all too easy to want to just read the newspaper to see the Wednesday Supermarket insert and throw away the rest. Please don't.

There are stories out there that matter rather much, but only in one corner of the world, that aren't getting much attention. Here's one I think you might want to see:

Thai-Cambodia clashes spread east to Preah Vihear

Fighting has erupted between soldiers from Cambodia and Thailand along their disputed mountainous border for a fifth consecutive day.

Sunday *ARRGH*

Yes, this should be the Open Thread for the week.

But first, a moment of utter frustration, expressed in three parts:

. Claims are Preah Vihear temple has been damaged during continued cross-border clashes:

Cambodia says a disputed 11th Century temple - a UN World Heritage site - has been damaged during continued cross-border clashes with Thai troops.

Part of Preah Vihear temple collapsed after a Thai bombardment, officials said. Thailand has not commented.

.. A mutiny in a part of the Sudan Armed Forces (the North army) went into the streets in Malakal, Upper Nile State, when soon to be Southern-nationals refused redeployment orders to the North, and then spread:

The mutiny in Sudan's army first broke out on Thursday in the politically sensitive southern town of Malakal (ed: spelling; error in original).

Twenty people were killed during heavy fighting, including two children and a Sudanese driver working for the UN refugee agency UNHCR, who were caught in the crossfire.

The fighting then spread to both Melut and the oil-rich settlement of Paloich on Friday and Saturday.

At least 30 people were killed, all of them soldiers, according to state officials.

... The Egypt Crisis has had its first round of 'negotiations' and the media is already lumping all the anti-regime factions together. This is not promising. The meeting was to try and find a path to democratic reform. One of the groups attending is about as undemocratic as you can get:

The banned Muslim Brotherhood and other groups took part in landmark talks with the government after 13 days of street protests aimed at forcing President Hosni Mubarak to resign.

The other groups, not counting ElBaradei's useful front for the Islamists, had something to talk about and I hope the regime listened, but giving al-Ikhwan a foot in the door of the process is just asking for trouble...

((insert vocal expression of frustration here))

OK.

Fine.

Enough of that.


Now it's your turn. Here's your Open thread for Sunday.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here... and putting up with a little frustration today.

And in other stories...

...as they say in the news business when they gloss over a bunch of other reports that didn't make the editor's cut for airtime, here are some of the stories you've likely missed with all the focus being on the Arab world and certain countries' economic issues (all links below courtesy the fabulous AlertNet):

Madagascar: New road map can end Madagascar leadership row - SADC. I'll believe it when it works. This is, what?, power-sharing plan number six or so?

Congo: Gunmen attack airport in Congo's copper capital. No, not in the Kivus. This was down in Lubumbashi in Katanga Province; historically a hot spot for trouble, but recently the large security presence for the mining industry made it a pretty quiet place. That may not be holding, though.

Kenya: FACTBOX-Kenyan cabinet rocked by Kibaki's judicial nominations. Further evidence that the Kibaki-Odinga powersharing agreement is getting all the credence paid to it by the stronger party that usually happens in such cases... in other words, none to speak of. This will be a big problem if a constitutional crisis takes full form before the elections scheduled for next year.

and over in Southeast Asia...

Thailand / Cambodia: Thai, Cambodian troops in deadly clash near temple. Again. I've covered this dispute here at CompHyp before at some length, and it is still an open risk of major conflict between the two countries. The Royal Thai Army spokesman says it looks to have been a misunderstanding that led to the exchange of fire, and then an artillery duel, and that:

"There is no point in fighting because it could escalate and damage relations... We don't want that."

No kidding... especially when such an incident happens during a meeting in Cambodia between the Foreign Ministers of the two nations. Well, now they've really got something to talk about.


More stories, and more details on things, as time allows.

China, Burma, and on

While hunting up a reference to the potential resolution of the Bangladesh - Myanmar (Burma) sea border dispute originally mentioned here at CompHyp back in Nov. 2008, I came across a very fine work-up by Ben Blanchard for Reuters on the current state of relations between the P.R. Chinese and the Myanmar junta, which really is a marriage of convenience at best.

You can read the entire story at AlertNet. Good job, Reuters.

Sunday Push -- Quiz Time

There is a lot going on out there, and a lot that deserves attention and some 'blog threads here, but matters mundane leave me unable to do them justice.

So, rather than just a Sunday Open Thread, here's a little fun for you who like to research stories yourselves... focusing on some things we've discussed here previously:

. Madagascar's constitutional crisis is back in the news, and has a new twist. What happened?

.. Former President M. Zelaya is still in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, but what was the story on his supposed departure this last week? What did actually happen?

... Uganda's parliament just passed two astounding pieces of legislation, on the basis of making law regarding two societal matters. What were they? Are either reasonable laws?

.... Mauritania arrested 3 "bankers". How does that relate to the constitutional crisis there that was recently resolved? Is this important?

..... Another arms trafficking scandal just happened in Thailand. What was it, and who all got arrested and for what?

...... Speaking of arms trafficking, it looks like H. Chavez of Venezuela is ramping up arms deliveries and talking tough again. Why, and what of it?

....... and for bonus points: A 727 was found burned near an improvised airfield in what West African nation eariler this month? What happened (what do the authorities think, at least), and what reason was the aircraft out there in the middle of nowhere in the first place?

I'll give this a day or so, and then post up some answers (or confirm yours) in the comments to this thread.

Enjoy!

APEC run-up: China Matters

The upcoming APEC meetings, combined with the Japanese effort at the Mekong Development Summit and the East Asia tour of America's President Obama and entourage, will bring many issues to be dealt with, but perhaps none more likely to go wrong than matters with the People's Republic ("Red") China.

Here are two danger areas that the leaders of Japan (and the United States) had best be considering carefully *before* they speak:

The P.R. Chinese economy is very likely not capable of being an engine of recovery, even for its own people not to mention trying to be the next great consumer economy. The numbers just don't add up. Someone is cooking the books. Taking a trusting position right now won't help anyone.

and

The issue of Taiwan is, and has been, greatly aided by policies of Strategic Ambiguity on the part of Japan and the United States; the answer to the question of "Would either nation defend Taiwan from an attack by the PRC?" being somewhere between "*YES*" and "maybe", but never less than that. But given the performance of the Obama administration abroad so far, there is a genuine fear that he might say otherwise on this trip. Never mind that contravenes American law on the matter; all he has to say is "um... no?" and the PRC will take that as a green light for action.

So here's hoping for some diplomatic good sense on the part of all involved...

...faint hope that may be.

Hun Sen throws in with Thaksin

...and the Thais then throw *out* diplomatic relations with Cambodia.

This is just monstrously stupid of Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen, by the way. He *can't* have believed that the Government of Thailand would sit idly by when he invited convicted-in-absentia criminal and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawarta to an advisory post in his administration.

It ranks as doubly insulting given the delicate negotiations going on over the contested Preah Vihear temple site along the border between the two nations... negotiations that are the only answer other than fighting over the land and heritage site... negotiations that haven't been going very well.

The Kingdom of Thailand is not accustomed to being treated this way, and it is now abundantly clear that they are not going to leave this as a tit-for-tat.

This is going to get worse unless Hun Sen and his crew realize that their little personal gravy-train of foreign aid and quiet self-aggrandizement is going to come to a sudden halt if they don't back off supporting Thaksin.

It remains to be seen whether such rational conduct is in their capacity.

Perhaps some Thai overtures to the Sam Rainsy Party would get Hun Sen's attention?

Oct 12th memorials

Two GWOT memorials came on the 12th, and both are worthy of your attention:

9 years ago, it was the U.S.S. Cole bombing. *Here* is last year's thread on that, with the roll call and links to photographs.

7 years ago, it was the Bali bombings in the Kuta tourist district. 202 dead, 240 injured in a triple bomb attack. They have been avenged, but the danger of J.I. (Jemaah Islamiyah) is still out there. The recent demise of Noordin Top is just the latest stage of the battle in Indonesia.

Philippines Typhoon adds to disaster

Thankfully, it seems to have avoided a direct hit on the Manila metro area, instead brushing by to the north, but given the sheer size of the storm it is likely that secondary flooding will add to the disaster already present.

Officials had feared rain would spark fresh floods in Manila since reservoirs and dams around the capital are full and the sewage system is inundated with mud and rubbish brought by last week's deluge.

"Our relief work slowed down because we placed our troops on standby for possible rescue operations in case of floods," said Lieutenant Colonel Ernesto Torres, spokesman of the national disaster agency.

"But the typhoon was hardly felt here."

If that is all, then wonderful. Rescue/Recovery efforts in the Manila area can go on, and new resources as they arrive can be tasked to the north of Luzon where the latest damage is pretty severe.

*Rumor* has it that the Reagan Carrier Strike Group of the U.S. Navy is likely to be diverted to provide aid now that this storm has swept through. That would be a good thing.

...because this is shaping up to be a bad autumn in Southeast Asia and Oceania.

Back-to-back Earthquakes in Oceania

A bad day, to say the least.

Reports are now being confirmed in detail from the region of the Samoas and Tonga stating that over 100 people are feared dead after an 8.0 magnitude earthquake hit southwest of American Samoa and then a tsunami smashed everything along the various islands coastlines.

Far to the west, across Indonesia and many hours later, a 7.9 magnitude earthquake hit off the coast of the island of Sumatra, collapsing buildings over a wide area. It looks very bad...

Rustam Pakaya, the head of the health ministry's disaster centre, said via a telephone text message that a hospital in Padang in the area near the epicentre of the quake had also collapsed.

"Jamil hospital collapsed and thousands of people are trapped in the rubble of buildings," Pakaya said.

Coming just days after the Philippines floods and now the same storm system hitting Viet Nam, this is going to be a very taxing time for relief efforts.

Red Shirts protest

The Kingdom of Thailand remains but one spark shy of mass civil disorder, still.

On the third anniversary of the forcible removal of former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra by the Royal Thai Armed Forces, masses of his supporters turned out for rallies even in appalling weather. Perhaps more appalling would be the fact that the man's populist support is entirely blind to the conviction (in absentia, as Thaksin is in self-exile) for massive corruption during his administration. The "Red Shirt" true believers of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) simply ignore all that. They just want to bring down the current government and bring back Thaksin.

The other side came out for rallies as well, with "Yellow Shirt" demonstrators from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) out in force as well. But in a case of ill-considered conflation of issues, a group of PAD activists attempted to force entry into the Preah Vihear temple site, claiming the Thai nationalist goal of forcing Cambodian authorities out of the area.

This isn't helping, fellows. Standing up to the "Red Shirts" is domestic politics... albeit argued in the street... and fair game. Dragging the border dispute with Cambodia into the disorder simply endangers any hope of a reasoned resolution to that matter.

The foreign investment community isn't pleased by all this disorder, either:

Export credit and risk insurance agency ONDD this week downgraded its medium and long-term political risk rating for Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy because of continued uncertainty and "the absence of a durable solution to the crisis".

This time, they got Noordin Mohammed Top

As reported over at The Long War Journal and by mass media sources (this example being the AP), the most wanted terrorist in Indonesia is now room temperature. Noordin Mohammed Top was killed by the Special Detachment of the National Police in a raid last night.

This puts a wrap on the case a month after he was mistakenly reported as killed.

Good pursuit, and good work by INP Detachment 88.

See? He's half way to Acapulco...

...or more likely, one of the thousand or so small islands of the Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines region.

For those behind on their reading here, this is in reference to the thread topic Still trying to confirm the kills, specifically in reference to the supposed demise of one Noordin Muhammad Top.

Supposed, that was, until now. Indonesian Police now say the man killed was an accomplice, not Noordin.

DNA tests identified the man as one of Noordin's accomplices in the attacks on the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels in Jakarta on 17 July, police said.

The hunt is still on.

Still trying to confirm the kills

Two major GWOT high-value targets may well have been taken this week:

As widely reported, Baitullah Mehsud, a major Pakistani Taliban warlord of South Waziristan, may have been killed by a targeted missile strike... Here is the Washington Post article on the apparent power vacuum and struggle between potential new Taliban leaders. If he is indeed dead (his demise has been reported before), the world is a better place without the presumed master of terror attacks that have killed dozens, including twice-Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

In Indonesia, the Police special detachment believes that they cornered and killed Noordin Muhammad Top, a Malaysian national and chief bomb-plotter of the J.I. (al-Qaeda affiliated) terrorist movement, in a 16 hour gunbattle in Central Java. the raid and a similar one that shot dead two would be suicide-bombers, likely prevented an attack on Indonesia's President Yudhoyono's residence planned to coincide with Indonesian Independence Day celebrations. But... doubts are now emerging as to his demise.

Both cases highlight the difficulties in determining the results of strikes against terror organizations, and in confirming the death of the shadowy figures at the center of such organizations.

Besides, the old rule still applies:

"If you don't see the body, he's probably halfway to Acapulco..."

***

Great analysis and sourcing by the Long War Journal on both stories:

Bill Roggio on Baitullah Mehsud

Nick Grace on Noordin Top

Arrests in Papua Murders

Seven individuals, including 2 employees of Freeport's Grasberg mining complex, have been arrested in the cases of three killings on the approach road to the mine.

The report as of now makes no assertion as to any affiliation of the accused, whether they are brigands, anti-government militants, *or* rival security providers currently trying for new contracts "guarding" the mine.

***

Previous discussion on this topic in The Weekly N&C for July 13th, 2009 here at CompHyp.

Indonesia Hotel Bombings

This is still a developing story, so for the moment the most convenient sources are wire service reports like this from the AP.

What is known so far:

The explosives were relatively small (transportable), not vehicle based. The attacks were not complex (no armed raiders; apparently no secondary devices to target responders).

Two bombs went off in Hotels in Jakarta, Indonesia. Both were detonated well inside the hotel buildings (the restaurant of the Ritz-Carlton; the basement of the JW Marriott). 9 8* dead, over 50 wounded.

One additional unexploded device is reported to have been found.

The rest of what news is out there is mostly guesswork.

Security in Jakarta is on high alert for any follow-up strikes, and precautions are being taken in countries throughout the region.

*later reports confirm only 8 dead.

Still seeing mostly guesswork in later reports.

The Weekly N&C for July 13th, 2009

The Mountain of Ore

It was called Ertsberg by the first Europeans to find it; literally “the Mountain of Ore”. Located in the then-Dutch colony of Netherlands New Guinea (the western half of the island of New Guinea), this enormous reserve of Copper, Silver, and Gold was at first a closely guarded secret. Failing to garner either local or Dutch permission to license mineral exploration in the area, the knowledge of this place faded in the years from the 1930’s (when it was first tentatively identified) until 1959. Then, in one of the storied moments in modern mining exploration, a news report of explorers “trying to locate the source of alluvial gold in rivers flowing into the Arafura Sea” led a geologist in the employ of the Freeport mining company (the then-Freeport Sulphur) to find and read the 1936 report and gain support for an exploration mission. The team of geologists found one of the largest copper ore bodies of modern times… 33 million tons at 2.5% copper, according to the initial estimates. It was a significant find of gold and silver as well. But while the original find has been mined out for all intents and purposes, the complex of the find has expanded with continued exploration. That original number almost pales in comparison to current estimates: Even after almost 30 years of mining, the 2006 estimate of reserves was 2.8 billion tons at 1.09% copper, 0.98 grams/ton of gold, 3.78 grams/ton of silver.

But to “get to” Ertsberg, or Grasberg (as the extended find is named), one had to overcome two very significant obstacles:

1) Location. The mine site is over 100 kilometers inland from the nearest feasible site for a port of loading, and is atop a mountainous region ranging from 10,000 to 14,000 feet (3000~4000 m) in elevation in some of the most inhospitable mountainous jungle in the world. The region was utterly devoid of transport infrastructure at the time.

2) Politics. In 1959, the Netherlands New Guinea holding was under severe pressure to be decolonized. The Dutch administration saw to preparations for independence, and did grant independence to West Papua on December 1st, 1961. But the neighboring nation of Indonesia treated this declaration much the same as they had the independence of South Moluccas in the 1950’s… they prepared an invasion.

Well, location and the required means for access can be overcome, and the means for doing so were within the capability of the mining engineers, but to overcome the political problem required something more shall-we-say old fashioned: a sell-out.

The American Kennedy administration intervened on behalf of the Indonesians. All protests inside the administration that this was simply exchanging one colonial master for another were dismissed in the name of keeping Indonesia out of the Soviet sphere of influence. Secret talks and considerable pressure on the Dutch resulted in the New York Agreement of August, 1962, which placed the territory under a United Nations Temporary Executive Authority October 1st of 1963 and supposedly stipulated an “Act of Free Choice” vote to determine final status. In May of 1963, administration of the territory was transferred to Indonesia… and by September of that year the territory was “quarantined”, made a special military zone under Indonesian control.

Bet you can guess how the “Act of Free Choice” came out.

So after Indonesia claimed a unanimous vote against independence by the unspecified portion of the population they chose to poll, and the Americans went along with the fix, it became a lot easier to get on with building the mine. Not the most glorious moment in American diplomatic honesty, that.

Now 35 years and more have passed since the first mine officially opened in 1973, and during those years the people of West Papua have been under the thumb of the Javanese-led Government of Indonesia (which only began to shake off its own autocratic history with the end of the Suharto dictatorship in 1998) and subject to intentionally invasive population movements that would be called “ethnic cleansing” if it was happening somewhere like Europe.

Freeport, now Freeport-McMoRan operating as PT Freeport, has not been direct party to any of the dirty deeds of the Indonesian overlords. In fact, they employ over 19,000 people in the operation of the mine, the slurry pipeline, the aerial tramway, the concentrator and the loading facilities. But by being license-holder from the Indonesians, and by depending upon Indonesian police and military for external security, Freeport has always been identified as a “collaborator with the occupation”. Given the nature of doing business in Indonesia, it is safe to say that the regime and certain well-connected people have prospered greatly by taking their bite of the royalty payments and other “bureaucratic expenditures” necessary to get things done.

Taken all and all, one might argue that the people of West Papua are in some way morally correct in forming an insurgency against the Indonesian regime. If that insurgency was focused on the regime, this author might *maybe* even agree with that premise. The case studies of the South Moluccas and the only-recently-undone conquest of East Timor (Timor Leste) by Indonesia both make a compelling case against the Indonesian empire-building campaign. But why, in the name of all reason, would anyone think that attacking the very source of regional wealth is a good way to resist the Indonesian occupation? There must be a revenge motive that precludes good sense, or some petty “if we can’t have it, no one can” approach going on.

This is not the way to win independence, gentlemen.

Not by trying to destroy the slurry pipeline (1977). Not by killing two Americans working at the mine (2002). Not by mob action that killed 6 people in a protest demanding the mine be closed (2006). Not by killing a young Australian man who worked at the mine. Not by killing a contract security employee escorting a convoy. Your cause is not helped in the slightest by giving the “counter-terrorist” element of the Indonesian military reason to take the field.

The military occupiers are the ones who have killed the many tens of thousands of West Papuans lost in the years of resistance.

To cast them out, which is *the* goal after all, the lesson of Timor Leste needs be learned.

Find leaders. Not guerrilla band chiefs; leaders with real stature. Get them out where they can make their case.

Open the gates. Find ways to get outsiders in, and get your story out.

Recognize that not everyone in Indonesia agrees with the occupation, and make their ability to have a voice inside Indonesian politics be your voice there as well.

And…

Stop trying to kill the foreigners working at Grasberg. They aren’t drones. They aren’t stupid either. Given a chance to be on the side of the families of the people they work side-by-side with to do their jobs, they likely will be.

Right now, the people of West Papua need all the friends they can get.

***

Addenda:

*If* the murder of Australian Drew Grant was committed by someone else than the movement, that story needs to get out.

The Australian Federal Police investigators who have joined the case are certainly going to look very hard at the evidence. The history of Timor Leste has made them willing to believe the possibility of Indonesian dirty deeds.

***

End Notes:

All notes are embedded in the text as links.

General Information on most all the above-referenced places, politics, and businesses are available at Wikipedia, but in this case *show extreme caution* as to sources and attribution of all information there. This is a highly politicized matter and there are great gaps in some of the history. (cf. the entry on South Moluccas has no historical data from ~1650 to ~1950)

Fair Disclosure: this author’s father was a senior Bechtel Corporation mining project engineer in the period when the Grasberg mine was first built (by that firm).

This time for sure

The Government of Thailand has had its share of embarrassment over the massive demonstrations that endangered the last ASEAN meeting. Historically, Thai leaders don't take to being embarrassed very well. Case in point:

With just two weeks to go before the East Asia Summit is to be held on Phuket Island, the country's defence minister has issued a statement:

"I will do whatever it takes to stop these demonstrations from happening..."

Here's hoping the presence of 10,000 security personnel and an outpouring of good sense on the part of all factions makes that a peaceful and simple job.

More on the Malaysia-North Korea Bank matter

In this report on statements by the Chief of U.S. Naval Operations (CNO), Adm. Gary Roughead, made in Seoul after his meetings with South Korean official, a few other little tidbits of information were tucked in:

Malaysia, meanwhile, pledged Monday to work with the United States to block the North from using the Southeast Asian nation's banks to fund any weapons deals. Foreign Minister Anifah Aman said his government "does not condone" any illegal activities.

The assurance came as Philip Goldberg, a U.S. envoy in charge of coordinating the implementation of sanctions against Pyongyang, met with Malaysian officials.

South Korean media have reported that North Korea sought payment through a bank in Malaysia for the suspected shipment of weapons to Myanmar via the Kang Nam I.

That would be the Kang Nam 1 we've often mentioned here; one of 5 numbered ships of that series.

The possibility that Malaysia is willing to work with a financial sanctions regime is of great note. They have in the past been one of the more reliable routes for dictators and banned regimes to funnel money around. Choosing to "not condone" illegal activities is a great step forward. Of course, freezing accounts would be a better step; maybe that will come next.