Our topic for this day comes from a story most widely distributed in the New York Times.
Here's their story (link):
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/world/asia/01pstan.html?_r=3&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Key Points:
While there have been various public mutterings for years as to the trustworthiness of the Government of Pakistan and its military agencies as allies in the GWOT, this story reports the first public admission by American Intelligence sources that actual intercepts and/or confirmed linkages are in hand that the ISI (Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistani Armed Forces) directly provided information and direction to a "Taliban" bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul.
This also appears to be the first time American Intelligence (specifically the CIA) was willing to go on record as having demonstrated to the Government of Pakistan that such confirming evidence is in hand.
Open Ground:
There is a lot to cover on this one. The two authors of the NYT article are noteworthy both in their publication history and for the quality of their previous work. There is always the question of "why" the NYT would publish this article, and "why" at this time. And then there is the entire can-of-worms as to: Pakistan; the Taliban; Afghanistan; Indo-Pak relations; ISAF(NATO)-Pak relations; and more. If you'd care to take a U.S. politics spin on this, the Open Ground there is obviously a matter of should the U.S. continue to give Pakistan money to support the GWOT...
All right then, Have At 'Ye!
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Here's a bit of the back story on this, via Bill Roggio over at the *superb* Long War Journal:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/07/41_killed_in_kabul_s.php
I have to read this! LOL
I am on my way to the vets!
be back in a bit!
damn LDG-- You sure know how to make it tough!!!
this one is a bender for the mind!!!
And here, right on schedule, is The AP's version of GovPakistan's official denial:
The AP, via Breitbart
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D929IPA81&show_article=1&catnum=0
"this one is a bender for the mind!!!"
--enough to drive you "batty?"
(heh nice picture, Susan)
question:
Is like the CIA tuning out when it needs to?
I have to read this again!
@Susan
"Is like the CIA tuning out when it needs to?"
Run that by me again, using different words... not sure on what you are asking.
meanwhile...
It is one of the facts of life in the region that the Tribals living on both sides of the Durand Line (the supposed Afghan-Pak border) owe far more loyalty to each other than to the nations that claim the land they live on, but when confirmable reports show that groups formerly active in Kashmir are now the most active insurgents on the Afghan side...
http://www.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUSN30509436._CH_.2400
...gee, you'd think someone in the GovPakistan might have noticed them relocating.
Here's Aaron Mannes [TheTerrorwonk also posted at CTBlog] with his take on this. When you are talking about social networks and terrorism, this guy is one of the best. (He's good on Latin America issues as well, btw)
http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2008/08/pakistani-intelligence-sponsoring.html
Not to quibble, but it would be great if you could make your links clickable.
I'm astounded that the US is willing to go on record with this.
"What were they thinking?" is a disturbing question here. How could this possibly have seemed like a good idea? Nuclear powers acting unpredictably scares the crap out of me.
@Will
off-topic:
Click links in comments are disabled to prevent tinyurl-type scams, but I'll look into it as this is a members-club.
back on topic:
There is a really troubling matter when dealing with the Pakistani Armed Forces: Their entire claim to pride-of-place in the GovPakistan is that they "defend" against the "threat" of India. What that means is that they see the entire world through the view that India must remain a perceived threat...
...even if such a threat must be constantly manufactured.
I'd call it "Cold War" thinking, but the similarities are far greater to the situation in Europe prior to World War I.
Perhaps an attempt to undo that similarity is part of "why" this was taken public. An attempt to break that cycle.
Rading the Times Story, I am thinking there are three things that can be done either alone or in conjunction with others.
1.) feed the IS a boatload of disinformation so they don't knwo waht to believe any more. treat them lik we used to treat the KGB or the Cuban Intelligence services once upon a time.
2.) The U.S. Military goes in regardless of borders and complaints from Pakistan, If they do complain show them the bloody shirt again. Have marine Recon kill people and break things.
3.) Wring a concession out of the Pakistani government to purge or disolve the ISI. and put Military Intel in it's place, temporarily.
4.) Invade Pakistan.
Ah those days of sitting in the Black Forest Inn watching CNN as the tracers filled the air above Bagdad :-)
Scott
@karl
Option 1 has some serious problems, In My Opinion. Mostly to do with the utterly diminished capacity for such out at The Farm these days. Further it would require a policy shift to treating Pakistani Forces as enemy or complicit. Guess you could run it on a piecemeal basis through NCS, but it wouldn't have the all-encompassing effect you would likely want.
Option 3... not going to happen.
I'll leave 2 (and 4)out there as decisions made at the political level, but if much more of #2 happens than is already going, it will become indistiguishable from #4 in practice. Tough sell.
off-topic -- Yeah, got a war for my birthday, and one I got to watch on cable TV. Arnett hanging out the window and the other reporters broadcasting from under the bed. hehhehheh.
A bit more depth on this original topic, from the Sunday Times (UK).
Sunday Times on the ISI problem
Key points:
They give particulars on who and which groups the ISI is most compromised with.
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