Another back door

O. Reich and E. Vazquez on How Ecuador's immigration policy helps al Qaeda.

Obviously, not just AQ. What this really is the exit point of the Iran-Venezuela-Ecuador and Dubai-Russia-Cuba-Ecuador pipelines... and the U.S.A. still trivially accessible from Ecuador. Here's the money quote:

While there is no evidence to show that the Correa government established the policy of "open borders" in an effort to attract criminal organizations, that has been the result.

The only thing worse, from a regional security point of view, than having a failed state as a neighbor is having one that is willfully aiding the enemies of civilization. Time to close those tunnels, indeed.

Iran in Latin America

They are just reaching out... building diplomatic relationships... sure...

You might want to read this before you take that position.

The Argentinean prosecutor who ferreted out Iranian links to Argentina's largest terror attack warned Wednesday of Teheran's growing terror network in Latin America.

He cites chapter and verse on the whole story... and it isn't good news.

Chavez's Imperial Game

This is a recommended read for anyone who is trying to follow the Empire-By-Franchise schemes of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez:

Alvaro Vargas Llosa, writing at RealClearPolitics (for the WaPo Writers Group): Hugo Chavez's Imperial Chess Game.

It lays it all out, from the role of the ALBA front organization to the next move on the chess board... Peru.

The only thing left unmentioned is the Honduran situation, which is best described as a taken piece.

Please take the time to read it.

Uh huh, sure.

I am *so* believing this denial:

FARC denies giving money to Correa's campaign.

Yup. Un huh, sure. Just like the "Raul Reyes" computer files. INTERPOL sure showed those up, didn't they?

...oh, wait. That wasn't exactly how it went, was it? What say we take a look at those video files and see about how they were supposedly "manipulated"...?

The FARC and Ecuador's Correa

It has always been an open question: Does President R. Correa of Ecuador act in support of the FARC narco-terrorists operating along the Ecuador-Colombia border? Very strongly arguable evidence says "yes" (cf. Raul Reyes), but official activities by the Ecuadoran Armed Forces to shut down drug labs and stem some of the cross-border movements says "maybe no".

But if one turns the question around and asks "Does the FARC support Correa?", well... that answer is a definitive "yes", and that's just the latest evidence of FARC efforts to find friends in neighboring countries.

The Correa administration, of course, denies everything about this.

This is negotiating?

Mediator-in-Chief Oscar Arias must be turning a new-found shade of purple right now...

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is just not letting up on the "Zelaya is returning" claims. This morning, he came up with Manuel Zelaya would return to his country "in the coming hours".

Given the reports in Honduran newspapers of a supposed insurgency attempt to go along with such a return, it is rather unlikely that any return attempt is going to be greeted with a pleasant 'welcome home'... more likely, a pleasant 'you are under arrest'.

Zelaya plots; Chavez rants

The Zelaya faction (inside and more, outside Honduras) is not so happy with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias' efforts at mediation, and are ignoring calls for "patience". So, the demagogue plays to his populist base...

Calling on his supporters in unions to stage a work-stoppage on his behalf:

Commendable in principle; if entirely peaceful, commendable in practice.

Claiming he (Manuel Zelaya) will re-enter the country with supporters, who are apparently being armed at the behest outside interests:

um... not exactly commendable conduct for someone who is claiming legitimacy.

"We are going to install the constitutional assembly. We are going to burn the Congress," protest leader Miriam Miranda vowed.

Legitimate insurgency, or the armed march on the center of power, is what one does when there is no recourse within the institutions of the nation to bring down a government.

I'd say this is pretty much a slap in the face of Oscar Arias. It likely undermines what claim M. Zelaya might have of being the wronged party.

Of course, his having friends saying things like *this* is not helping his case either.

note: The claims H. Chavez is attempting to repudiate are these (Spanish-language source).

Honduras curfew lifted; talks go on

The curfew that was imposed in the wake of the forcible removal of M. Zelaya from the Presidency and the wave of violent protests orchestrated to oppose that move has been lifted. Life there has at least a moment of normalcy.

The talks (they really aren't negotiations yet) being held by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to seek an agreed resolution to the situation go on. The Micheletti administration in Honduras has even considered the possibility of amnesty after trial for Zelaya. (Spanish-language source)

Daniel at Venezuela News and Views reads these turns of events as a defeat all across the board for the Chavez-led Zelaya-fronted faction. He thinks the biggest casualty of all this will be J. M. Insulza, the Secretary General of the OAS (and often-apologist for H. Chavez). Mr. Insulza is likely not gathering much support for a new term as SecGen by his performance in this affair. The irony is that by failing to be fair, the U.S.A. lost what faith it had in him, and yet by failing as a useful idiot agent of their agenda, the Venezuelan government will likely not support his re-selection either.

Couldn't happen to a more appropriate fellow, as far as this author is concerned.

Asking the real question

The Honorable Otto J. Reich, in testimony Friday before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, asked the real question about the international reaction to the removal of M. Zelaya from the Presidency of Honduras:

How can the so-called democratic community allow Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and other countries that have either destroyed self-rule, or are in the process of doing so, to determine the standards of democracy in the region?

Read the entire testimony, please. He recognizes the mistake the Honduran government made of expelling Zelaya rather than arresting him and trying the charges. But he also makes a fine defense of the legitimacy of the removal of Zelaya from office.

More importantly, it is an absolutely deadly indictment of the ALBA role in the attempt by Zelaya to commit an autogolpe, and it should be a warning as to how far the Chavez-led clique will go to try and make this situation worse.

Zelaya expected back in Washington D.C.

Some amount of quiet has fallen in Honduras today, after yesterday's entirely orchestrated "kabuki dance" of former-President Manuel Zelaya trying to fly into the country.

The Toncontin Airport at Tegulcigalpa, Honduras, is closed today and tomorrow for security (and repairs) after the damage caused by break-through agitators with armed with wirecutters (and maybe more...).

M. Zelaya is now expected back in Washington D.C. on Tuesday for a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State H. Clinton. This might be a good thing: It *might* signal an effort to wrest control of the U.S. official reaction away from a certain NSC Western Hemisphere staffer whose motivation for his actions to-date are rather suspect. *Maybe*.

It could well be an encore performance of the dance done while Zelaya was in the Residence of the Ecuadorian Ambassador in Washington where the various players acting in his defense constructed his attempted trip back to Honduras. (See documentation at ECrisis in the July 6th posting, regarding that meeting)
**text corrected: the Residence, not the embassy itself**

There may yet be more reasonable (and less self-interested) involvement in this matter to come from the Obama administration, but I'll believe it when I see it.

At least Hugo Chavez is public about his support for Zelaya, and his role in supporting the demonstrators. How refreshing.

***

Previously on this, here at CompHyp yesterday.

***

Zelaya thinks he can force the issue

...by trying to go back to Honduras.

He couldn't get any of his ALBA buddies to get on the airplane with him, nor would the OAS leader. That pretty much rules out the "300 journalists" on the flight, too, although there are certainly seats available now.

He is said to have gotten Miguel D'Escoto, the former regional troublemaker now supposedly gainfully employed as the U.N. General Assembly president, to go with him.

The Honduran Government-in-place is not taking this lightly. Furthermore, given the raft of indictments against M. Zelaya, if he does reach the ground he should be arrested. If D'Escoto would like, he can waive whatever diplomatic immunity he has and be arrested too, but he'd have to ask nicely.

***

UPDATE ~1700hrs ('blogtime):

Roughly four hours ago Spanish language media had the aircraft landed in El Salvador. That may well have been a refueling.

In the last hour, Honduras ATC warned off the flight, then Zelaya claimed the flight was circling the airport at Tegucigalpa but the runway was blocked. He shortly thereafter claimed the flight was redirecting "to El Salvador" which doesn't quite jibe with having been their just before... and now the announcement comes that he will be landing in Managua, Nicaragua.

I didn't know Kabuki was popular in Latin America... sheesh.

***

If you have time to read one more source... Read Hunter Smith at Honduras Abandoned. His updates #4 and #5 for today are the best on-the-scene reporting out there right now. Shame on the major media outlets...

***

Hunter Smith called it, and I got lucky on spotting the staged Reuters wirephoto as it came in. Both he and William A. Jacobson at Legal Insurrection have kindly tipped the hat to CompHyp for this. Thank you both, gents.

There is reasonable confirmation from multiple sources of 1 dead in the encounter at the airport perimeter fence (*not* the main body of the demonstration, the agitators that pressed on past the stop-line), there may well be 2 dead. What isn't in yet are the medic reports on cause of death. That's another one for us to look to those on-scene to get news out on.

***

More on this as it comes in.

***

Honduras makes its case

In the wake of an international reaction that runs the gamut from "critical of the process" to "calls for an invasion", the Republic of Honduras could well have chosen to fold their cards...

Not Happening.

They've got a lot of the facts on their side against the Zelaya autogolpe, and they are showing a willingness to stand up for their own constitution.

The faces of the government are being made available to the media, including these statements made to the Associated Press. In fact, were M. Zelaya to attempt to return home (no matter who is accompanying him), there are 17 charges on file standing against him that would be served upon any return. Interim President R. Micheletti correctly observes that only a nation wanting an excuse for war would try to accompany a Zelaya return in the face of that.

Oh, by the way, given a couple of days to go through the records kept by the former-Zelaya administration's private offices, it seems that there is evidence of support for narco-trafficking that had been a booming business the last couple of years through Honduras in spite of official efforts. Real evidence of a Zelaya-Venezuela-FARC connection could be as important as the "Raul Reyes" computer files were in documenting the FARC relationships with other governments and officials in the region.

There's a lot of media noise about M. Zelaya being in Washington D.C. now, after his General Assembly play-to-the-balcony-seats.

What isn't being said, much, is that the interim government is also on the way to D.C. with a rather large entourage... and they've likely got a pretty good case to make... if anyone will let it be heard.

Correa bites off more than he can chew.

It seems Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa is a bit upset...

Published on June 22nd, Mary Anastasia O'Grady's magnificent indictment of Correa based on "Raul Reyes" documents of connections to the FARC is a very hard hitting piece.

Correa is denying everything and claiming he will file suit.

He's been so good at playing tricks on investors, apparently he thinks he can pull off a coup in the courts...

Let us know how that works out, Big Guy... that is, if you don't get your whole country listed as a State Sponsor of Terrorism in the process.

No jacket required

Iran has announced the sudden cancellation of the massive entourage tour by Imadinnerjacket President M. Ahmadinejad and about a 100 associates to Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador that was scheduled to start tomorrow.

No explanation of the cancellation was made.

Roberto Jaguaribe, a political undersecretary at Brazil’s foreign ministry, told reporters in Brasilia it will be rescheduled for a date after Iran’s June 12 elections.

That may be, but between the protests in the streets of Brazil's cities...

A few thousand rallied over the weekend in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, carrying banners that read “President Lula: explain to your guest what freedom of expression means.”

and the claims of Argentina for extradition of five wanted Iranians indicted for the 1994 terror bombing of the AMIA building in Buenos Aires, Iran is not as popular down south of the equator as it seems to be in Chavezistan.

Six reports you should read

While each of these deserves a detailed commentary of their own, matters mundane simply preclude my having the time to address them properly. Here they are, for your interest and general information, pending further discussion:

Rafael Correa, President of Ecuador, wins re-election. The Oppo's carried the Guayaquil Mayoralty, but the country as a whole went toward Correa's party by 55%.

Manuel Rosales was granted Asylum in Peru, and Peruvian President Alan Garcia claims this "will not disturb" bilateral relations between Peru and Venezuela. Good luck with that. Venezuela has withdrawn their Ambassador in protest.

Speaking of people under international warrant: INTERPOL has issued a warrant for Russian State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov in the case of the murder of Chechen commander Sulim Yamadayev in Dubai last month. This case is the latest event in what appears to be a series of assassinations targeting rivals of Kremlin-backed Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov.

The Seychelles Coast Guard, in cooperation with the Spanish Navy, has captured 9 pirates in the waters of the Seychelles believed to have participated in the attempted hijacking of the cruise ship MSC Melody. Spanish, French, and Indian Navy patrols are now active in the Seychelles region. More at EagleSpeak on this item.

The civil disorder in Madagascar grows worse, with the arrest of four members of the Ravalomanana faction for inciting violence and the possession of weapons. In addition, a former member of ousted-President M. Ravalomanana's Presidential Guard has been accused of plotting the murder of the wife of coup-leader President A. Rajoelina.

More Kivu troubles in the D.R. Congo are happening. The arrest of L. Nkunda has left the CNDP under the leadership of J. B. Ntaganda, who is a wanted fugitive from ICC war-crimes prosecution, but that hasn't stopped the Congolese Army (FARDC) from integrating the remaining CNDP forces into their command and preparing a new offensive in South Kivu as an expansion of ongoing operations against the Interahawme Hutu-based factions of the FDLR. The MONUC U.N. peacekeepers have stated they can not continue to support the FARDC if Ntaganda is involved, but internal reports show that the MONUC administrators have known since April 8th of his role.

The Question is not Who, but Why

Now, granted, it was a false identification, but why would the current Government of Ecuador even pretend to have arrested a supposedly major FARC leader? Somebody didn't make the pay-offs on time or something? Some Police officials were actually doing the job that the (rough estimate number) 13,000 Ecuadorian Army troops assigned to the border region are supposed to be doing (of keeping foreign militants out)?

Moreover, why was this item even allowed to get out to any mass media?

Any guesses?

Salvadoran, Ecuadoran Presidential Races

The situation as to the upcoming (March 15th) Presidential Election in El Salvador is one of a tightening race, according to local polling reported by Angus Reid Global Monitor.

Looks like the victory by ARENA in the capital mayoralty was not a fluke, and it is just possible that trends are turning against the FMLN, finally...

***
However, a matter of some risk is occurring in Ecuador's Presidential race. A total of 10 candidates are in the preliminary round, which should deny incumbent President R. Correa an outright 50% of the vote to win without a runoff... *BUT*...

...the election law also allows for a win with a 40% share so long as that candidate is also more than 10 points ahead of the next closest rival. There is a real possibility that could happen if the opposition is fairly evenly distributed.

As soon as polling data comes in on this current field of candidates, it would be great to see the numbers to try to predict whether a Correa outright-win is possible.


-hat tip to friend MP and blogger Boz, who cites the original report from El Comercio of Quito (Spanish language source)

Immoral? So is market manipulation

Friday's news brought the statement by Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa that the foreign debt he has ordered left un-served is "immoral", and that for no reason other that that Ecuador shall default on the debt when the timer runs out on Monday.

Yeah, yeah, and usury used to be against canon law too. Maybe he'll show up on Monday for a press conference dressed as a priest?

The trick in all this this was the failure to service interest was a buy-back fraud. By triggering the 30 day default timer last month, the price of Ecuadorian global bonds dropped like a stone, and the GovEcuador was then buying them up cheap to self-reconcile them.

More on this all here, at Reuters.

The game is now coming to its end and either R. Correa will hide behind recently rewritten local laws or it will be fight time in the legal system over the default.

The utterly foolish thing about all this is: Ecuador defaulted widely only 10 years ago. Any non-State lender who was willing to go back into a market so badly tainted almost deserves to take the loss this time too.

Pop Quiz

If some one asked you "What country has claimed they would intervene militarily in Bolivia twice in the last few years?", what would would be your answer?

Here's the answer, near the end of this excellent piece from Francisco Olivares at El Universal (Caracas). English translation provided by El Universal.

Is that what they call them?

The New York Times version of the report on the latest OPEC meeting and the decision to cut 1.5 million barrels per day off the composite production quotas states...

Some members, led by Iran, pushed for an aggressive cut in production. Their aim is to stop the precipitous slide in prices that risks putting a big dent in their government revenues and jeopardizes their increasingly large social spending programs.

(bold added)

Social Spending Programs? Is that what they call them now?

Still, the general take on all this is that the slide in oil futures prices won't stop even with this "cut". The Saudis are still filling the market with 300,000 bpd or more over quota, the economic slowdown has the market a-fear'n, and demand declines in developed economies (and those economies that export heavily to the developed economies) all point to a floor below $50 per barrel even after this cut.

This is good news for almost everyone, and bad news for some very deserving folks.