Sunday Morning Push

Here we go, with another weekend open. Obligations have made things a bit hectic, and will continue to do so for a couple more days. (Rounds that were only Tuesday are now split between Monday and Tuesday... twice the drive time for the same number of working hours... can't be helped, though.)

This thread is left open for comments if you have any topics you'd like discussed, or suggestions as to things to look into in more detail here. The usual rules still apply: Play Nice.

As always, thank you all for coming here.

Watching Venezuela

There are all sorts of reports coming in off social networks and sources that today (the 4th) is going to be another big round of protests against the Chavez regime.

A more deserving target is hard to imagine:

Besides the mismanagement of the entire utility system of the country, and all the dictatorial moves against the media and public discourse...

Besides the fact that the economy as a whole is gasping and wheezing...

Besides land seizures that make Venezuela a copy of Mugabe's Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) complete with the land taken "in the name of reform" being given to members of the party elite...

Besides all the senseless sabre-rattling against threats imagined...

... besides all that, there is the very real perception that Hugo Chavez is just the front man for the Cuban Government. The latest example being held up about that being the appointment of Ramiro Valdés Menéndez of Cuba as an advisor to Chavez... supposedly as a technology expert there to help solve the electrical utility problems. That would be *this* Ramiro Valdés Menéndez.

This is simply madness.

The people of Venezuela know it, too.

The only questions are:

...will they go out in the streets against the guns of the regime and its militia?

...and if they do, will the regular Army stand with the regime or with the people?

***

More on this as word comes in.

Addenda:
I didn't mention it above, but the significance of the day is that Feb. 4th 1992 is the date of Hugo-and-friends failed attempted military coup against the Carlos Andres Perez government... so for his team, this is an honored day...

Fausta's podcast is all about this, today. As always, I recommend it.

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One heck of an election

This has been "fun" week in the election in Ukraine...

We got off to a great start with the definition of a one-sided debate as Y. Tymoshenko got left appearing alone when rival V. Yanukovych refused to attend their scheduled televised debate. Let's just say Ms. Yulia didn't let the opportunity go to waste.

Then, in an unrelated-but-timely event, the Intelligence Service of Ukraine bagged five Russian spies redhanded, expelling four and holding an Russian FSB Colonel on charges of espionage.

And then, with V. Yanukovych's lead, the Parliament of Ukraine passed a new law "...on February 3 eliminates the need for candidates' representatives to supervise vote-counting at individual polling stations", which was promptly answered by the Tymoshenko camp with the threat of mass protests if there is the hint of election fraud.

Election day is February 7th. Hang on to your hats, folks. It's going to be a ride.

Freedom for Iran: Mousavi makes a challenge

It is looking more and more like the "Green Movement" is gearing up for a heck of an Anniversary-of-the-Revolution party on February 11th.

The latest indication comes from M.H. Mousavi, who has now made an open challenge to the regime:

In a statement posted on his website, Mr Mousavi said the 1979 Islamic revolution had failed to achieve most of its goals.

He said politically motivated arrests of protesters were illegal and more should be done to secure people's rights.

This is not going to go over well at all with the regime, to say the least. But it may just be that the time has come for open confrontation...

History books are full of well-intended but unsuccessful insurrections. What differentiates the rare case of success is a combination of at least (1) preparation; (2) regime vulnerability; (3) an unwillingness of at least some of the authorities to crush dissent; and (4) whole lot of good fortune.

Here's hoping that those bases that can be covered are covered, and that fortune favors the insurrection.

MEND goes back on the attack

So much for the cease fire in the Niger Delta region:

A militant group in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta says it is ending the ceasefire it declared last October.

source - the BBC.

That would be the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which taken as a bloc is the largest and most dangerous armed faction in the Delta insurrection.

There is some quibbling over details as to "which MEND" ended the cease fire, as there certainly were some factions that had never come in from the bush when the amnesty was offered last year, but this is looking to be pretty much an all-call for militancy to resume.

Expect a return to the usual kidnappings, boat hijackings and pipeline raiding across the region, for now.

Husband unaware

It says something about a relationship that this is the defense offered when the wife is accused of criminal conspiracy, but in fairness it is something that should be considered.

Sheryl Cwele, the 50-year-old wife of Siyabonga Cwele, appeared in court charged with conspiring to bring cocaine into the country.

Mrs Cwele was charged with procuring a woman to collect drugs in Turkey and of getting another woman to smuggle cocaine from Brazil.

She remains in custody until her bail application is heard in a week.

Mrs Cwele is facing the charges with Frank Nabolis, a Nigerian national arrested in South Africa in December.

What it isn't, however, is something that adds to one's chance of keeping one's job... when one is the Minister of State Security, the chief of all civilian Intelligence Services in the Republic of South Africa.

IF, and that's a big *if*, this indictment holds up then Dr. Cwele is an utterly compromised leader for no other reason than that his family-member's associates can (and will) be used against him. The very fact that this case has been in limbo since the December arrest of a (co-)conspirator and the arrest in Brazil *in 2008* of a drug mule linked to the accused causes some serious worry about the investigation. After all, criminal accusations of politically powerful individuals have a way of suddenly ending in the Republic...

Watch this case closely for a measure of how reliable an ally the South African Security Service remains in the GWOT and International CounterNarcotics.

Zelaya heads for the door

This is a breaking news item, but for now here's what is out there:

Deposed Honduran leader Manuel Zelaya has left the Brazilian embassy there and is heading into exile in the Dominican Republic, reports say.

Fully clothed. Just like last time.

Sadly, it looks like the deal to let him go has some kind of immunity offer... I hope it is at least contingent upon his shutting up and going away quietly... but I'd still rather see him stand trial.

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ADDENDA

The AP has it that the deal lets him slide for treason, *but* leaves the door open to pursuing charges for "embezzlement in connection with $1.5 million in government funds".