and a cautionary note

Since the announcement of the sentencing of Viktor Bout earlier, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation (MID) has out out a statement to the press about how they do not see the matter resolved. *NOTE: Statement was apparently a press statement and is not as of yet available on the MID site in English.*

Sky News UK, just to pick one of the reports out there, has it like this:

"The Russian foreign ministry views the US court verdict sentencing Viktor Bout to 25 years in prison as baseless and biased," the ministry said in a statement.

"(We will make) all possible efforts to return Viktor Bout to the Motherland, using for this all the existing international legal mechanisms."

Noble of them, standing up for a citizen of their republic; wish more countries had done so when Westerners got left to take the fall in places like Angola and Equatorial Guinea back in the day... but...

...the honest observation is that Viktor Bout was doing what he was doing with the help of a lot of powerful interests. They want him home and back to work, or at least in a place where he isn't pressured to say what he knows.

The most legitimate observation is that the MID will, through legal challenges and diplomatic linkage, try to get Bout sent to "serve his time" back in Russia.

Less sporting of them would be to make certain that one or more Americans working in Russia is "caught doing something bad".

Of course, from the point of view of any post-Soviet 'crime' interests that Bout was hooked up with, he is and has been since his arrest simply a detail that needs to be eliminated, but that is a danger really only to Viktor Bout right now.

Consider the second above a cautionary note, friends who are working in and with Russian interests: That deal that just broke your way that looks too good to be true... probably is. Watch yourselves.

five and twenty

Note to CompHyp Friend Will...

...it looks like pre-sentencing gamemanship was for 'naught. Viktor Bout gets 25 years.

Congratulations to Manhattan US Attorney Preet Bharara.

Congrats as well to the DEA-and-friends team that pulled the original sting.

Hell, as long as we are waving around the 'at-a-boy's, congratulations to Journalists and Investigators Douglas Farah and Stephan Braun, whose 2007 work publicized the role of Bout as a modern "Merchant of Death", and who have waited a very long time for this day to come.

Drink up, gents. Now let's go get some more bad guys.

Two for the good guys.

There is a of lot bad happening out there. Yeah, I'll write about that too. Just not today. Today, we get two in the win column for the good guys:

On 2.November, Viktor Bout was convicted. Took the best part of three years to land the fish, and there are appeals to be made, but the case held together. Unanimous jury to convict.

Today, word came out of the killing of "Alfonso Cano" (Guillermo Leon Saenz), the leader of the FARC since 2008. Colombian Armed Forces bombed his base and then sent in the airmobile teams and finished him and his escort in a firefight. Good riddance and haste to dismantling as much of the FARC as possible.

Job well done in both.

Sunday Evening Push

OK... who put Monday directly after Wednesday last week...?

((grin))

It has been one of those weekends that looks a whole lot like the work week here. Hope yours went better.

Here's your Open thread for Sunday, just in case you've something to say about it. ...Or about all the other things happening out there in the wide world.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

Here are some brief links of things passed over the last couple of days:

Switzerland continues to show remarkable good sense on matters of a free people maintaining arms.

A series of rounds of hostage releases in Colombia has freed four of the many, many hostages of the FARC. I'd like to say it is the beginning of freedom for all the kidnapped... but it likely is not. A one-off or just a step forward.

Meanwhile, fan favorite Hugo Chavez continues to make a mockery of himself. Just for reference sake... Chavez couldn't carry Hosni Mubarak's briefcase. Sure would be nice if the people of Venezuela were a little more motivated to show him the door after seeing how things went in Egypt, though.

Ayman Nour of Egypt's al-Glad (Tomorrow Party) should have more sense than to be saying things like this, especially in the media. Unless, of course, he is proposing returning Sinai to Israel... (Boy, that wouldn't make it a minute in the court of public opinion, but again, it sure would be nice.)

Where the ETA is welcomed in the government

More evidence of terrorist-supporting villainy in Venezuela:

in addition to Arturo Cubillas, other six ETA members work in the government.

Diego Arria, a former minister of Information and Tourism and former Venezuelan Ambassador to the United Nations, said on Monday in Madrid that in addition to Arturo Cubillas, other six ETA members who were deported to Venezuela in 1989 work in the government led by Hugo Chávez.

Arria testified before the Spanish National Court Judge Eloy Velasco, who is investigating the alleged links between Basque terrorist group ETA and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and their presence in Venezuela.

There is a certain "serves you right" to Spain about the origin of this affair; Having chosen to deport ETA terrs rather than incarcerate them, it should surprise no one that they found a patron when Hugo Chávez came into power and joined up.

This Spanish investigation may well lead to one good outcome, however. If some degree of certainty finally connects the ETA, the FARC and the Chávez regime, that would be one step closer to pinning the "State Sponsor of Terrorism" label on Hugo's Venezuela... with all the legal baggage that carries with it.

None too soon, in my opinion.

V. Bout in U.S. custody

It took two years of determined effort, but Viktor Bout is now in U.S. custody.

media reports: The AP via FOXNews; The BBC.

Job well done.

More Threats? More Threats.

Hugo A-go-go Chavez, the President of Venezuela, apparently isn't satisfied with the reaction to his declaration of Communist affiliation at the COP15 meeting... but given how bad (and long) his speech there was, perhaps the world can be forgiven for having nodded off before he got to that part...

Anyway... if no one is noticing him, goes the rational, it must be time for more threats:

It is not uncommon for Chavez to accuse other nations, especially the U.S. and its allies, of conspiring against Venezuela.

First he threatened the Kingdom of the Netherlands over anti-drug operations flying out of the Netherlands Antilles, then it was more frothing against Colombia (various claims), and now he's hauled out the "Yankee Spy Planes" claim:

Speaking during his weekly television and radio program, Chavez said the aircraft overflew a Venezuelan military base in the western state of Zulia after taking off from neighboring Colombia. He did not elaborate, but suggested the plane was being used for espionage.

"These are the Yankees. They are entering Venezuela," he said.

"I've ordered them to be shot down," Chavez said of the aircraft. "We cannot permit this."

I guess it is good to have hobbies.

((sheesh))

I'd say something like "Bring it, little man", but the fact is that dictatorial madmen like Chavez get a lot of people killed when they actually get the nerve up to try something. This kind of lunacy simply must be ended.

HRes872: an attempt to Terror-List Chavez' Venezuela

It is only an attempt, but if this Resolution finds traction (and maybe even passes), then there is going to be some serious pressure to get a State Sponsor of Terrorism listing for Hugo Chavez' regime in Venezuela... and all the embargoes and financial sanctions that go with that.

About bloody time someone got out the hammer.

As made abundantly clear by Douglas Farah's recent testimony before the American Congress, the Axis-of-Evil has been on a recruiting drive and Venezuela under Chavez is now actually looking like a threat (to people outside Venezuela; they've been a threat to liberty at home for a long time).

Three articles worth reading

Here are three good articles, on things that likely won't make it to your nightly news... but that you should be aware of...

1) While one French national kidnapped in Somalia earlier this summer has made a successful escape, the other "security advisor" is still being held. al-Shabaab has issued their demands upon which they condition his release. Note that (they)

...say they will free the man if France stops its support for the weak UN-backed government and ends its anti-piracy patrols in Somali waters.

The group also wants African Union peacekeepers withdrawn from Mogadishu.

(Bold added by me)

Gee... and all this time we've been told that the Islamists crack down on piracy when ever they take over a region of the country. Uh huh.

2) The finds of offshore oil continue to roll in. This time, it is an extension of the partly-defined Gulf of Guinea formations off the coast of Sierra Leone. It looks to be fairly big, but... that region is just barely post-conflict and has some of the weakest institutions of governance around. Developing these resources without enabling an entire new generation of Kleptocrats is going to take some responsible conduct. Given the usual observation ("T.I.A.") that seems unlikely, but I'd love to be wrong on that.

3) Lastly, here is a superb summary of the Kleptocracy in Venezuela which names the names and calls it as it is. We've touched on parts of this here at CompHyp, but this puts it all in a single picture... and it is *not* a pretty one. It is also one of the few analyses I've seen in open sources that points out the defining nature of Hugo Chavez' relationship with his cronies: They profit so long as his inherent cowardice in the face of personal danger does not leave them twisting in the wind.

Bout has *almost* slipped the charges

Read it and weep: The lower court ruling is in on extraditing Viktor Bout to the U.S.A. to face charges...

"The U.S. charges are not applicable under Thai law. This is a political case," said judge Jittakorn Wattanasin in delivering the verdict at Bangkok's Criminal Court.

"The FARC is fighting for a political cause and is not a criminal gang. Thailand does not recognise the FARC as a terrorist group."

Besides the obvious misapprehension on the part of the presiding judge as to the character of the FARC, His Honor seems to have overlooked the nature of the threat to civil aviation worldwide posed by anyone selling "700 to 800 surface-to-air missiles" on the black market.

There is still one last opportunity to land the fish. The Thai prosecutors can file an appeal up to 72 hours after the lower court rules, and that would bump the request to a higher court, but it almost requires that the prosecutors show that the lower court judge made a mistake or failed to address all the evidence presented in the extradition request.

Better make it a good try, fellows. The Russians already have the vodka on ice for the celebration party.

Hugo, again...

Here we go again. As it was passed to me earlier today:

Chávez amenaza con expropiar empresas colombianas

ND (28/07/09-7:55pm).- El presidente Chávez amenazó con expropiar a las empresas colombianas al responder a las denuncias de ese país sobre unos lanzacohetes suecos del tipo AT-4 que fueron encontrados en manos de guerrilleros de las Farc. Al mismo tiempo, Chávez anunció la congelación de relaciones con el vecino país.

Así lo recoge una nota de ABN.

El presidente de la República, Hugo Chávez Frías, advirtió que ante una próxima agresión por parte del gobierno colombiano dirigido por su homólogo, Álvaro Uribe, se quebrantarían severamente las relaciones comerciales y hasta se podrían expropiar empresas neogranadinas en el país.

“La próxima agresión que haya en contra de Venezuela romperemos relaciones comerciales y económicas y comenzaremos a expropiar las empresas colombianas en el país”, precisó el mandatario nacional.

Desde hoy dio la orden al gabinete gubernamental para levantar un informe con las estadísticas comerciales entre ambos países ya que “ellos (el gobierno colombiano) no tienen respeto hacia nosotros y estoy seguro que volverá a suceder un ataque diplomático muy pronto”.

“Si ellos han decidido abrirle las puertas al imperio, con eso han demostrando que no les importa las relaciones con su hermano país Venezuela”, refiriéndose a la instalación de cinco nuevas bases militares del gobierno estadounidense en Colombia.

Sin embargo precisó que "vendrán nuevos tiempos con la Colombia, la Colombia que queremos, la que es nuestra hermana de verdad".

In summary, in English from El Universal:

President Hugo Chávez on Tuesday announced that he ordered the Venezuelan ambassador in Bogota to return to Caracas as the bilateral relations remain "frozen" in the wake of the seizure from the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC) of Swedish weapons that, according to Sweden and Colombian officials, were sold by Venezuela to the rebel group.

He's bent about the new U.S. base-usage agreement with Colombia as well.

Expect the order to move "tank battalions; ten of them" to the border shortly. ...which would impress me more if Hugo Chavez had ten battalions of tanks to order anywhere.

"Tin-pot dictator" does not even begin to describe him adequately.

Uh huh, sure.

I am *so* believing this denial:

FARC denies giving money to Correa's campaign.

Yup. Un huh, sure. Just like the "Raul Reyes" computer files. INTERPOL sure showed those up, didn't they?

...oh, wait. That wasn't exactly how it went, was it? What say we take a look at those video files and see about how they were supposedly "manipulated"...?

AT-4's? Gee... they are around here somewhere.

This qualifies as a pretty clear End-User Certificate violation:

The Swedish government said on Tuesday it had asked Venezuela for information on how Swedish-made weapons exported to the South American country had found their way to rebels in neighbouring Colombia.

For those of you not familiar with the Arms Trade, what that means is serious legal trouble for Hugo Chavez and crew. One does not resell military-grade armaments casually in the modern world and stay out of trouble for long.
(cf. Viktor Bout)

The legal and correct export of those AT-4 light antitank rockets was made by the manufacturer in Sweden based on the certification by Venezuela that *its own armed forces* were the user. Years later (the sale was back in the 1980's), the very weapons so certified have been found in FARC hands inside Colombia. The only legal way that Venezuela is not liable for them being there is if they were reported stolen and certified as lost, which would have meant a bit of legal trouble for losing them *back then*; no such loss is on record.

Unless there is a fall-guy around to take one for the team and be arrested by Venezuela as a thief and arms smuggler, this is going to add another nail to the "Chavez supports the FARC" coffin.

The FARC and Ecuador's Correa

It has always been an open question: Does President R. Correa of Ecuador act in support of the FARC narco-terrorists operating along the Ecuador-Colombia border? Very strongly arguable evidence says "yes" (cf. Raul Reyes), but official activities by the Ecuadoran Armed Forces to shut down drug labs and stem some of the cross-border movements says "maybe no".

But if one turns the question around and asks "Does the FARC support Correa?", well... that answer is a definitive "yes", and that's just the latest evidence of FARC efforts to find friends in neighboring countries.

The Correa administration, of course, denies everything about this.

Zelaya plots; Chavez rants

The Zelaya faction (inside and more, outside Honduras) is not so happy with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias' efforts at mediation, and are ignoring calls for "patience". So, the demagogue plays to his populist base...

Calling on his supporters in unions to stage a work-stoppage on his behalf:

Commendable in principle; if entirely peaceful, commendable in practice.

Claiming he (Manuel Zelaya) will re-enter the country with supporters, who are apparently being armed at the behest outside interests:

um... not exactly commendable conduct for someone who is claiming legitimacy.

"We are going to install the constitutional assembly. We are going to burn the Congress," protest leader Miriam Miranda vowed.

Legitimate insurgency, or the armed march on the center of power, is what one does when there is no recourse within the institutions of the nation to bring down a government.

I'd say this is pretty much a slap in the face of Oscar Arias. It likely undermines what claim M. Zelaya might have of being the wronged party.

Of course, his having friends saying things like *this* is not helping his case either.

note: The claims H. Chavez is attempting to repudiate are these (Spanish-language source).

Honduras makes its case

In the wake of an international reaction that runs the gamut from "critical of the process" to "calls for an invasion", the Republic of Honduras could well have chosen to fold their cards...

Not Happening.

They've got a lot of the facts on their side against the Zelaya autogolpe, and they are showing a willingness to stand up for their own constitution.

The faces of the government are being made available to the media, including these statements made to the Associated Press. In fact, were M. Zelaya to attempt to return home (no matter who is accompanying him), there are 17 charges on file standing against him that would be served upon any return. Interim President R. Micheletti correctly observes that only a nation wanting an excuse for war would try to accompany a Zelaya return in the face of that.

Oh, by the way, given a couple of days to go through the records kept by the former-Zelaya administration's private offices, it seems that there is evidence of support for narco-trafficking that had been a booming business the last couple of years through Honduras in spite of official efforts. Real evidence of a Zelaya-Venezuela-FARC connection could be as important as the "Raul Reyes" computer files were in documenting the FARC relationships with other governments and officials in the region.

There's a lot of media noise about M. Zelaya being in Washington D.C. now, after his General Assembly play-to-the-balcony-seats.

What isn't being said, much, is that the interim government is also on the way to D.C. with a rather large entourage... and they've likely got a pretty good case to make... if anyone will let it be heard.

Correa bites off more than he can chew.

It seems Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa is a bit upset...

Published on June 22nd, Mary Anastasia O'Grady's magnificent indictment of Correa based on "Raul Reyes" documents of connections to the FARC is a very hard hitting piece.

Correa is denying everything and claiming he will file suit.

He's been so good at playing tricks on investors, apparently he thinks he can pull off a coup in the courts...

Let us know how that works out, Big Guy... that is, if you don't get your whole country listed as a State Sponsor of Terrorism in the process.

Colombia and Panama together vs. FARC

This is the kind of cooperation that gets results.

Colombian and Panamanian authorities are working together to target the FARC 57th Front, specifically going after Gilberto 'El Becerro' Torres Muñeton, the commander of that Front responsible for holding open corridors across the border to get drugs out and arms in.

Here's hoping for a successful operation.

This should be good

President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia is in Canada to promote Free Trade, and while he's there he is dropping off a little dossier with some details from the "Raul Reyes" computer files...

RCN reported that the FARC 'foreign offices' are co-ordinated by Mariela Devia Silva, the sister of slain FARC commander 'Raul Reyes' and three of his nephews and a niece. They are believed to have contact with NGOs, trade unions and the Canadian Communist Party.

The information about the guerrilla group's movements is said to have been found in 'Raul Reyes' computers. RCN reported that videos and photos of leaders of the Canadian Communist Party and Colombian FARC operatives were among the evidence found.

original Spanish-langage report from Canal RCN.

Don't count out the FARC yet

Just in case anyone was thinking that the FARC was on its way to the dustbin of history any time soon, *Here* is a report from yesterday's Miami Herald newspaper on what is being called "Plan Rebirth".

Between the FARC and the reforming Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path Movement; Peru), this matter of guerrillas as narco-traffickers is far from resolved.