Littering

North Korea earned a host of charges about sanction-busting and violating UNSC resolutions with their "satellite launch" plans...

...and today, they added littering to the charge. The launch failed around first stage separation.

Oh, and the embarrassment is pretty deep.

The ol' one-two

Here we go again: NorKs being NorKs.

North Korea has moved its "satellite launcher" ballistic missile test into launch position, on track for a launch between 12 and 16.April.

North Korea is also reported to be likely in the final stages of preparing a third nuclear test explosion at the same site as previous fizzles... er... tests.

OK, to quote another thread, so much for negotiations.

Open question to the UNSC, the United Nations Command in Korea, and to the governments of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States: So what are you going to do about it?

Further open question to Russia and the PRChinese: What are you going to do about it, or will you let this get hung on you for aiding and abetting?

Kim-the-newest base visit foreshadows trouble

Pretty much every time the Kim-in-power in North Korea visits some outlying military base and gives a statement (veiled as a speech) proclaiming doom for the enemies of the DPRK (North Korea), something bad happens. Consider it a "tell" of the crudest kind.

Well, guess what?

Shortly after this report of a visit to a navy base specializing in coastal submarine activities, where Kim-the-newest declared the following...:

SEOUL, April 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has ordered his troops to bury enemies at sea if provoked, Pyongyang's state media reported, amid tensions over his country's planned rocket launch.

...other reports came in via the Korea Herald stating that

Several North Korean submarines have disappeared after departing from bases on the eastern coast.

According to reports, three or four North Korean submarines recently departed from bases on the east coast and have since remained outside South Korean surveillance.

Consider this a very strong foreshadow of trouble to come.

Also, consider conducting some really realistic anti-submarine warfare drills (with live weapons and targets of opportunity) along the Sea of Japan coast of South Korea. Now. Not later. NOW.

***

h/t Galrahn via Twitter for setting me looking into this.

Speaking to the walls

Saw all the reports on U.S. President B. Obama's various appearances in South Korea in prelude to and at the Nuclear Security Summit... actually watched the so-called "special lecture" at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies...

...the man's reaction after going up to Observation Point Ouellette overlooking the DMZ

Earlier Sunday, Obama paid his first visit to the tense Demilitarized Zone separating North and South Korea, speaking briefly at the U.S. military camp located just outside the 2.5-mile-wide zone. What he saw from the border, Obama said, underscored the degree to which the North has suffered under a battery of sanctions aimed at punishing Pyongyang for its continued provocations.

"It's like you're in a time warp," he said. "It's like you're looking across 50 years into a country that has missed 40 years or 50 years of progress."

and so on about how backwards North Korea is. No kidding. He actually sounded surprised. That either demonstrated a jarring reassessment of his world view or was simply his saying the words he and his speechwriters thought he should say at the time. Your choice which.

...and then the usual summit "hot mic" moment, where B. Obama says something when he thinks the press isn't watching.* Those often do one of three things: insult Americans; insult an American ally, or; promise to accommodate a rival, but on terms personally favorable to B. Obama. This was no exception.

...gave a speech disguised as a "special lecture" that was vapid, self-absorbed and directed at someone other than the audience (students... who seemed rather tired of being spoken past rather than to...):

In remarks made at a university in Seoul earlier in the day, Obama sent a pointed warning to North Korea.

"Here in Korea, I want to speak directly to leaders in Pyongyang," Obama said during the special lecture at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. "Have the courage to pursue peace and give a better life to the people of North Korea."

I should note the brevity of the quote above does no justice to the long-winded and disconnected speech as a whole. It was... um... he said "um" a lot... uninspired to say the least. There was applause at times, but I can only imagine it occurred when some not-seen-on-the-video-feed indication was signalled to the audience except for that at the conclusion. That was probably a statement of relief.

All in all, a remarkable display of why November 2012 (U.S. Presidential Election) and January 2013 (Inauguration of the next U.S. administration) can not come too soon.

Hopefully something useful actually is going on behind the scenes at this summit. I think there is, but little chance of there actually being a report on any of that. Politics and Posturing are soooo much more important.

***

note * : That link is to Hot Air, a political site, commenting on the original article. The original citation is linked therein to abcgo 'blog by Jake Tapper at ABC News (USA). The direct link is unreliable in some browser/security software combinations.

NORKs being... NORKs

Time for another verse of the North-Korea-Hokey-Pokey...

In February, for some unfathomable reason, the USA (with concurrence from Japan, South Korea and the PRC) made a package deal of resuming "de-nuclearization" discussions and of sending North Korea a bribe food aid classed as "a nutritional agreement".

This week, the North Koreans announced a blatant violation of sanctions an entirely unrelated and certainly harmless ballistic missile test satellite launch to celebrate the centenary of Kim Il-sung (Kim the First) 's birth.

This garnered a response from the diplomats of, to quote US DeptState Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland:

"If they were to go forward with this launch it is very hard to imagine how we would be able to move forward with a regime whose word we have no confidence in and who has egregiously violated its international commitments."

Which shows both that DeptState does recognize they were played for the fool *and* that anyone who thought the Kim regime's word was ever worth a dust speck of confidence just got what they deserved.

Here's YONHAP News Agency (South Korea)'s report on all this, just for second sourcing.

Although Japan is currently burdened with a government that borders on the insignificant in the ability department, I'll risk taking the same position on this missile launch as I did on the last time the NORKs lobbed one over us...

Shoot.It.Down.

Better yet, wipe the launch facility off the face of the planet while the missile is under assembly.

Then ask what other thing they'd like to concede away for a little "nutritional agreement".

Where's the kaboom?

Yes, well...

The miltary exercise on Yeonpyeong Island finally went off this afternoon.

The North Koreans had vowed all manner of retaliatory mayhem.

As of now, YONHAP news agency has it like this: N. Korea silent as S. Korea concludes live-fire drill near sea border.

Somewhat underwhelming to say the least. Bets are the North Koreans are laying low waiting for the South Koreans to let down their guard... which by the way was up and ready for a fight all day today.

Expect more on this story.

***

(snide aside)

Then again, the NorKs might have simply misplaced their "Illudium PU-36 Explosive Space Modulator".

h/t to Marvin the Martian for the title quote.

Sunday Morning Push

Here's your Sunday Open Comments Thread.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

News to watch for: South Korea awaits only the lifting of the foggy weather to commence its next live-fire artillery training drill... for the troops on Yeonpyeong Island. This could get messy.

Japan Self Defense Force to... Korea? (Updated 2)

Wait, wait... let me explain.

This is the Twitter Tweet that got, well, a bit of a reaction.

PM Kan says he would consider dispatching the Self Defense Forces to North Korea to rescue #Japanese abductees.

One of those times the Twitter 140 character limit just doesn't cut it, fellows.

Here's the original story, (in Japanese). The first line:

菅首相は１０日夜、朝鮮半島有事が起きた場合、北朝鮮による拉致被害者の救出のため、自衛隊派遣の可能性を政府内で検討していることを明らかにした。

reads that "on the evening of the 10th, Prime Minister Kan stated that in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, to remove (rescue) those Japanese abductees still in North Korea, the administration is considering if the deployment of the Self-Defense Forces is possible."

What wasn't Tweetted, but is further in the original article, is that Kan-souri was addressing the families of abductees at a meeting in Toukyou (Tokyo), and that he was rather round-about in his speaking... almost thinking aloud as to possibilities.

Very good, that. Open to possibilities in a crisis, and all that.

But, then...

Mr. Kan spoke more on the subject of SDF dispatch to Korea at noon today (local time). This report kicks off with a whole different matter (in Japanese):

菅首相は１１日昼、朝鮮半島有事が起きた場合、在韓邦人救出のための自衛隊の現地派遣を実現するため、韓国政府と協議を開始する意向を表明した。

This is a whole 'nother kettle of fish. It generally says that "On the 11th, at noon, Prime Minister Kan stated that in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the SDF should be deployed to evacuate (implied: Japanese-national) residents, and discussions with the government of the Republic of Korea are to start (will start? an open potential) to make this possible."

That's a pretty big jump forward if the Lee administration in the ROK is willing to go along with even this level of let's-be-honest-about-what-it-is military cooperation between the two countries.

This was at a Press Call, by the way, so no explaining it by guessing it was tailored to an audience. He also (in the body of the article) mentioned both his awareness of the sensitivity that Korean people have as to the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and that this matter will require some legal changes to the Self-Defense Force Law(s) were it to come to be. No surprise, that last. The SDF basically has to ask legal authorization from the kokkai (Parliament) for any deployment or irregular activity and this situation probably couldn't be considered covered by the Emergency authority of the naikaku (Cabinet; the whole thereof functioning as national Executive).

Very, very promising.

Here's hoping it wasn't just a politician playing with words again.

***

UPDATE 12.Dec

Bad news: The South Koreans were "rather surprised" by Kan's comments. There was no consultation with ROK officials before he spoke.

The remarks have been labeled "unrealistic".

Oh, bother.

***

UPDATE 13.Dec (local time)

Japan is not exploring the possibility of dispatching the Self-Defense Forces to the Korean Peninsula to rescue Japanese nationals in case of contingencies, the top government spokesman said Monday, taking back Prime Minister Naoto Kan's remarks last week.

"There is absolutely no such plan. Therefore there are no talks (with South Korea)," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said at a news conference.

source - Kyoudou (Kyodo) wire service.

Why is it that every time I hear Y. Sengoku open his mouth on a foreign affairs matter, I hear him saying what he thinks the P.R.C. wants to hear? This man is clearly a weak link in the Cabinet, but for some reason N. Kan believes he can't run things without him.

That may well have to change.

Formalities

First, everyone establishes their position of record.

North Korea: We will keep doing what we are doing.

South Korea: The next provocation will be met with significant reprisals (airstrikes).

The P.R.C. (round one) as reported in South Korea:

China is taking a vague attitude on North Korea's provocations, including its artillery attack on a South Korean island, with a top Chinese official skipping any mention of the shelling when he visited Seoul last month, a senior Seoul official said Thursday.

The U.S.A.:

"I actually believe that because these provocations continue, and seemingly at a more frequent interval, that the danger is going up and that steps must be taken to ensure that they stop," said (U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike) Mullen at a news conference in Tokyo.

"Much of that volatility is owed to the reckless behaviour of the North Korean regime, enabled by their friends in China," he said.

"There is too much at stake for this sort of myopia."

The P.R.C. (round two):

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a news conference that she questioned what Adm Mullen had done for "peace and stability in the region".

She called his remarks on China's support for North Korea an "accusation".

Okay then... so much for the formalities.

Now that everyone has staked out a public position, it is time to get things done.

Today, Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo (the "top Chinese official" that visited South Korea earlier) has met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. This is reported as:

"the two sides reached consensus on bilateral relations and the situation on the Korean Peninsula after candid and in-depth talks," Xinhua news agency said.

Next, a high-level U.S. delegation, led by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, plans to visit Beijing next week.

But wait... what could possibly go wrong?:

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former ambassador to the United Nations who for years has served as a roving diplomatic troubleshooter, will visit North Korea next week in a trip that was announced hours before the North's Kim Jong-il met in Pyongyang with Chinese State Councilor Dai Binggou.

...

Richardson said in a statement that he is worried about the North's actions.

"If I can contribute to the easing of tension on the peninsula, the trip will be well worth it," he said.

In Washington, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Richardson will not carry any message from the U.S. government. However, Richardson will likely be briefed before he goes and then report back to the State Department after returning, and the visit could help ease tensions.

Oh.

Forgive me.

Given all the preliminaries, I thought there was some hope for meaningful action.

I can not think of a move more likely to undermine our allies and put off any resolution to things short of the Obama administration organizing a "beer summit".

I will say that several State Department folks *should* be outraged with their bosses. I doubt that they would publicly air said outrage, but still...

Keen Sword 2010

The Yellow Sea exercise by the ROK military and US Forces has run its course.

Now it is our turn: Keen Sword 2010

The drills in and around Japan are part of the annual "Keen Sword" maneuvers and involve tens of thousands of troops from both sides, including the aircraft carrier USS George Washington and its battle group. For the first time, the exercises also have observers from South Korea.

According to Japan's Defense Ministry, 34,100 Japanese personnel, 40 vessels and 250 aircraft from Japan's ground, maritime and air self-defense forces will take part, along with 10,400 troops, 20 ships and 150 aircraft from the U.S. military.

The maneuvers, which were scheduled well before the North Korean incident, are to continue through Dec. 10.

So, while a regularly scheduled exercise, it is clear that this is also a piece in the puzzle regarding the 'new' approach to North Korean trouble-making.

What remains to be seen is whether this will be 'message delivered and go back to port' or if this is a working-up for something more significant to come.

Looks like more is on the way.

...more U.S. Navy firepower headed across the Pacific, that is. More Air Force assets, too.

That says that no one is expecting the current unpleasantness to blow over in merely a few days. I'd call that a realistic assessment of the situation.

Japan understands the North Korean risk.

If you are looking for just one example of how the Kan administration has 'put on their big-boy pants' over the last few months, here is one example for you:

Prime Minister Naoto Kan instructed the Cabinet on Friday to stay in Tokyo from Saturday to Wednesday to be on the alert for North Korean provocations during a joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea.

The entire National Security authority is on one-hour recall until the exercise has passed.

Very, very good. A shining moment of competence from an administration that has been far too open to criticism in the past... heck, in the past week.

Now for what is *not* being said: a significant number of Kaijou Jieitai (Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force; JMSDF; 'our' Navy) have also put out to sea on an unscheduled basis. I'll just cite the usually well-informed and reliable Information Dissemination as an open source post (Wednesday) on this. The JMSDF is not going into the Yellow Sea with the US Navy and ROK forces for this round of exercises, but given how bad things could get in the neighborhood if something happens, it is a very fine idea to have our ships at sea (and armed up).

So here goes. Time to face the risk.

NKorean Artillery Fire

Reports started coming in a couple of hours ago (here) of a firing incident across the Limit Line, hitting Yeonpyeong Island. (Link note: Google Maps does not show the Western Sea Border. The island is South Korea; The nearby mainland is North Korea.)

Don't bother going to Reuters, The AP, or other such wire services yet. They are all citing YONHAP... which I conveniently have the direct link to their story. Check the mainpage there as well, for they have both a photo news section with good pics on this *and* you can bet there will be followup reports and related political news.

First Glance Analysis: This is another provocation incident. Not a very clever one either. The primary target may have been ROK elements involved in the "Hoguk Exercise", but the damage seems fairly widespread and as the report says, the shelling fell well south of the exercise area. The pressure on the Lee administration to do something is going to be fairly intense, but like after the Cheonan sinking, picking *what* to do and *when* will be very important.

Sunday-come-on-Monday Push

Weekends are supposedly not a time for work-like obligations... *sheesh*

Here's some of what got missed:

30 years since Desert One. Yes, it still matters.

ANZAC Day was Sunday.

Some other people who write have gotten some great work out recently.

John Noonan on The Fall of the House of Mugabe. Would that it be fallen already.

Douglas Rogers on Zimbabwe's Accidental Triumph.

“What’s that got to do with it?” Mr. Muchauraya snapped. “Mrs. James was an African just like you. Sing what you normally sing.” When he turned to apologize for the interruption, he saw my father had tears in his eyes.

The most appropriate answer to everything wrong in the disaster that is Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) under Robert Mugabe & Co.

J. E. Dyer on Putin's great April. Almost makes one wish they were playing on a winning side... almost.

Geoffery Forden at Arms Control Wonk on The Cheonan sinking, explained. That pretty much limits the choices to a mine or a torpedo. Now, what to do about it?

***

This thread is left open for comments if you have any topics you'd like discussed, or suggestions as to things to look into in more detail here. The usual rules still apply: Play Nice.

As always, thank you all for coming here.

Loss of the Patrol Ship Cheonan

The mystery of the week...

The ROK Navy patrol vessel Cheonan (PCC 772) sank Friday night after a massive breach to the hull took out engineering spaces and rapidly flooded the vessel.

Reports *here* and *here* from Yonhap News.

No obvious signs of North Korean military activity as of yet, but as the vessel will certainly be raised an investigation will rapidly discover which of the following happened:

. mined ?
. torpedoed ?
. rock grounding ?
. internal explosion ?

Stay tuned to this, because if this was anything other than an accident there are going to be repercussions.

Webb visits Myanmar (Burma)

Either *this* is one heck of a case of harebrained Parliamentary Diplomacy... that's when elected representatives take it upon themselves to go play Ambassador... or (far more likely) a massive shift in American policy toward Myanmar (Burma), which could not possibly come at a less appropriate time.

The Than Shwe Junta has just taken the opportunity to further repress the party of Ang San Suu Kyi and extend her house arrest further for a matter she had no responsibity in...

The latest round of North Korean gamesmanship was focused on further arms exports to the Junta...

The Myanmar Army has been on the offensive against the Karen ethnic group, driving more of those people over into refuge in Thailand...

...and this is a good time to send over a sitting U.S. Senator to have a chat with Than Shwe?

Then again, we are talking of the current American administration; Between creative interpretations of other democratic countries' Constitutions and banishing the Secretary of State on repeated journeys to outlying corners of the world, this might well be right along the course of action one should expect from the Obama regime.

***

Open invitation: anyone who sees a plausible explanation for all this, please do feel free to inform me... but do keep it to the foreign affairs part of the issue, thanks. There's a reason why this weblog is not a American domestic political 'blog.

Treasury lists another North Korean banking front

The U.S. Department of the Treasury acted on August 11th to list Korea Kwangson Banking Corp. (KKBC) under Executive Order 13382.

E.O. 13382 freezes the assets of proliferators of WMD and their supporters and prohibits U.S. persons from engaging in transactions with them, thereby isolating them from the U.S. financial and commercial systems.

"North Korea's use of a little-known bank, KKBC, to mask the international financial business of sanctioned proliferators demonstrates the lengths to which the regime will go to continue its proliferation activities and the high risk that any business with North Korea may well be illicit," said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey.

The listing was also pursuant to UNSC Resolution 1718, sanctioning North Korean activities related to proliferation.

KKBC is another of the tangled mass of financial routes used to bring hard currency payments for weapons back to North Korea. A clear case of this was the movement of funds from Myanmar (Burma) to the People's Republic of China earlier this year, evading sanctions on both North Korea and Myanmar.

W. J. Clinton to North Korea

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton is on a visit "as a private citizen" to North Korea. Yonhap News (South Korea) has this report as of now, and can be generally followed in English at this web site.

Oddly, sources like NPR (American) have this as, to paraphrase, 'Al Gore asked to go, before, but the State Department wouldn't sign off on it'.

Hm. At least this gets eyes-on Kim Jong-Il. Maybe some value to that. Maybe, maybe *maybe* this is the showpiece kowtow required to get Laura Ling and Euna Lee out of there.

Any bets?

Korea Cyberattack

A Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack is pretty much the internet equivalent of a barrage jammer... not terribly sophisticated, but almost sure to cause a fair amount of harm. Well, that's certainly what happened when North Korea someone as yet unproven let fly with DDoS attacks on a couple score of South Korean and American target sites.

Here's more on the story, from Yonhap News in English. From this article, there are links to some other reports (on the right side of the page, titled "News Focus") on what kind of vulnerabilities and problems this attack revealed.

As to the visible effect of the attacks...

The attacks left some government web sites and online shopping services down on Wednesday and access to some U.S. government sites from the country appeared to have been disabled, perhaps due to security measures in the United States that blocked access from South Korea due the attacks, experts told local media.

Heh. Perhaps.

More on the Malaysia-North Korea Bank matter

In this report on statements by the Chief of U.S. Naval Operations (CNO), Adm. Gary Roughead, made in Seoul after his meetings with South Korean official, a few other little tidbits of information were tucked in:

Malaysia, meanwhile, pledged Monday to work with the United States to block the North from using the Southeast Asian nation's banks to fund any weapons deals. Foreign Minister Anifah Aman said his government "does not condone" any illegal activities.

The assurance came as Philip Goldberg, a U.S. envoy in charge of coordinating the implementation of sanctions against Pyongyang, met with Malaysian officials.

South Korean media have reported that North Korea sought payment through a bank in Malaysia for the suspected shipment of weapons to Myanmar via the Kang Nam I.

That would be the Kang Nam 1 we've often mentioned here; one of 5 numbered ships of that series.

The possibility that Malaysia is willing to work with a financial sanctions regime is of great note. They have in the past been one of the more reliable routes for dictators and banned regimes to funnel money around. Choosing to "not condone" illegal activities is a great step forward. Of course, freezing accounts would be a better step; maybe that will come next.