The ol' one-two

Here we go again: NorKs being NorKs.

North Korea has moved its "satellite launcher" ballistic missile test into launch position, on track for a launch between 12 and 16.April.

North Korea is also reported to be likely in the final stages of preparing a third nuclear test explosion at the same site as previous fizzles... er... tests.

OK, to quote another thread, so much for negotiations.

Open question to the UNSC, the United Nations Command in Korea, and to the governments of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States: So what are you going to do about it?

Further open question to Russia and the PRChinese: What are you going to do about it, or will you let this get hung on you for aiding and abetting?

and a cautionary note

Since the announcement of the sentencing of Viktor Bout earlier, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation (MID) has out out a statement to the press about how they do not see the matter resolved. *NOTE: Statement was apparently a press statement and is not as of yet available on the MID site in English.*

Sky News UK, just to pick one of the reports out there, has it like this:

"The Russian foreign ministry views the US court verdict sentencing Viktor Bout to 25 years in prison as baseless and biased," the ministry said in a statement.

"(We will make) all possible efforts to return Viktor Bout to the Motherland, using for this all the existing international legal mechanisms."

Noble of them, standing up for a citizen of their republic; wish more countries had done so when Westerners got left to take the fall in places like Angola and Equatorial Guinea back in the day... but...

...the honest observation is that Viktor Bout was doing what he was doing with the help of a lot of powerful interests. They want him home and back to work, or at least in a place where he isn't pressured to say what he knows.

The most legitimate observation is that the MID will, through legal challenges and diplomatic linkage, try to get Bout sent to "serve his time" back in Russia.

Less sporting of them would be to make certain that one or more Americans working in Russia is "caught doing something bad".

Of course, from the point of view of any post-Soviet 'crime' interests that Bout was hooked up with, he is and has been since his arrest simply a detail that needs to be eliminated, but that is a danger really only to Viktor Bout right now.

Consider the second above a cautionary note, friends who are working in and with Russian interests: That deal that just broke your way that looks too good to be true... probably is. Watch yourselves.

Another back door

O. Reich and E. Vazquez on How Ecuador's immigration policy helps al Qaeda.

Obviously, not just AQ. What this really is the exit point of the Iran-Venezuela-Ecuador and Dubai-Russia-Cuba-Ecuador pipelines... and the U.S.A. still trivially accessible from Ecuador. Here's the money quote:

While there is no evidence to show that the Correa government established the policy of "open borders" in an effort to attract criminal organizations, that has been the result.

The only thing worse, from a regional security point of view, than having a failed state as a neighbor is having one that is willfully aiding the enemies of civilization. Time to close those tunnels, indeed.

Speaking to the walls

Saw all the reports on U.S. President B. Obama's various appearances in South Korea in prelude to and at the Nuclear Security Summit... actually watched the so-called "special lecture" at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies...

...the man's reaction after going up to Observation Point Ouellette overlooking the DMZ

Earlier Sunday, Obama paid his first visit to the tense Demilitarized Zone separating North and South Korea, speaking briefly at the U.S. military camp located just outside the 2.5-mile-wide zone. What he saw from the border, Obama said, underscored the degree to which the North has suffered under a battery of sanctions aimed at punishing Pyongyang for its continued provocations.

"It's like you're in a time warp," he said. "It's like you're looking across 50 years into a country that has missed 40 years or 50 years of progress."

and so on about how backwards North Korea is. No kidding. He actually sounded surprised. That either demonstrated a jarring reassessment of his world view or was simply his saying the words he and his speechwriters thought he should say at the time. Your choice which.

...and then the usual summit "hot mic" moment, where B. Obama says something when he thinks the press isn't watching.* Those often do one of three things: insult Americans; insult an American ally, or; promise to accommodate a rival, but on terms personally favorable to B. Obama. This was no exception.

...gave a speech disguised as a "special lecture" that was vapid, self-absorbed and directed at someone other than the audience (students... who seemed rather tired of being spoken past rather than to...):

In remarks made at a university in Seoul earlier in the day, Obama sent a pointed warning to North Korea.

"Here in Korea, I want to speak directly to leaders in Pyongyang," Obama said during the special lecture at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. "Have the courage to pursue peace and give a better life to the people of North Korea."

I should note the brevity of the quote above does no justice to the long-winded and disconnected speech as a whole. It was... um... he said "um" a lot... uninspired to say the least. There was applause at times, but I can only imagine it occurred when some not-seen-on-the-video-feed indication was signalled to the audience except for that at the conclusion. That was probably a statement of relief.

All in all, a remarkable display of why November 2012 (U.S. Presidential Election) and January 2013 (Inauguration of the next U.S. administration) can not come too soon.

Hopefully something useful actually is going on behind the scenes at this summit. I think there is, but little chance of there actually being a report on any of that. Politics and Posturing are soooo much more important.

***

note * : That link is to Hot Air, a political site, commenting on the original article. The original citation is linked therein to abcgo 'blog by Jake Tapper at ABC News (USA). The direct link is unreliable in some browser/security software combinations.

...working with him, yeah, that's it.

While enduring the BBC World's Impact news program this evening, I once again had the infuriating experience, eh hem, pleasure of watching one of the world's great front-men for his bosses' policies, Russian Foreign Minister S. V. Lavrov. When asked at a press conference about the situation in and regarding Syria, he fielded it in terms of Arab League and United Nations Special Envoy Kofi Annan (yes, former UNSecGen) 's presentation of the results of his 'peace plan' to the UNSC, due today... Lavrov said:

"...we are working with him every day."

Call me a biased opinion, but my first reaction was "SO? You've been working with him every day for decades. Russia and UN apparatchiks..."

Catch the drift of what I'm saying?

Good.

***

As long as we are at least tangentially on a Freedom for Syria topic, I would be remiss to not mention the superb back-and-forth between Michael Ledeen and Andrew C. McCarthy yesterday on what to do or not do about Syria. If you make the time to read it all, and I hope you do, please make the effort to backtrack from M. Ledeen's last pronunciamenti to the very first link in their chain of discussion. Two very, very sharp gents taking a very civil difference of opinion about the way forward about Syria and running it to ground in one of the best considered analyses-by-competition I've read in a long while.

This...

...explains why the Maehara resignation is just another in a series of diplomatic disasters for Japan...

...and this is an example of how crippled Japan's diplomacy has become, even with its closest ally...

...and this, which is far, far more important, has been pushed out of the news cycle by the two previous items.

The trivial triumphs over the existentially threatening, again.

When political life is dominated by petty individuals with no interest or ability to understand matters outside their narrow parochial interests, this is what happens.

A study in democracy.

Northern Territories Day

February 7th is Northern Territories Day in Japan.

This is the annual reaffirmation that Japan holds dear its sovereign rights over the islands of the Northern Territories that, contrary to existing recognition even at the time, were occupied by the then-Soviet Army *after* the August 15th 1945 Japanese statement of surrender... and never returned.

Every year, rallies are held; one in Toukyou (Tokyo) which was keynoted by Kan souri daijin (Prime Minister N. Kan) and the other on Hokkaidou from whose easternmost tip the ill-taken islands can be plainly seen.

Japan has designated Feb. 7 as "Northern Territories Day," saying that a treaty dating back to that day in 1855 supports its claim to the islands.

Kan was the top speaker at a government-backed rally of about 1,500 people in Tokyo that has been held annually since 1981 to mark the anniversary. He vowed that Japan will not back down from its claim and said visits there by Russian leaders are "an unforgivable outrage."

The Russian government has recently made the comment that "(Russia) is tired of discussing the issue".

Very well... if that's how they want to play it... every, *EVERY* single negotiation between Japan and Russia, every fisheries agreement, every request by the Russians for Japanese investment, hell, every matter that could possibly be discussed should be placed on hiatus with a simple note:

(Japan) is tired of discussing the issue as well. There will be no further discussions *on any matter* until the Northern Territories are returned to Japan.

After that, then we talk Peace Treaty.

After THAT, then we talk trade and investment.

Any effort to talk around the ban, to find Parliamentary channels or to involve business interests, should be ruthlessly ferreted out and made public. If such attempts violate Japanese law, arrests should be made.

I'd even argue for a suspension of existing trade, but a couple of matters are likely out of reach unless an embargo were to be passed: The 'multinational company' cover that the Sakhalin oil and gas project operates under is probably strong enough that business interests in the Japanese trading companies with minority shares in the project could claim to be unfairly penalized were their delivery contracts to be threatened; The Russian business interests in Vladivostok are almost entirely dependent upon the import trade from Japan, mostly of used vehicles. Again, closing that door likely harms friends and does nothing to motivate Moscow (the Putin clique has a history of hating the Vladivostok interests and the feeling seems to be mutual).

But the "we are tired" argument should be a clarion call on this matter. Letting the Russians get away with saying it, much less tolerating their occupation of the islands, is unacceptable. Period.

Domodedovo Airport Attack (Updated)

The details are still coming in, but here is the short form:

35 people have been killed in an explosion at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport according to the airport spokesperson. Up to 130 are said to have been injured in what the Investigative Committee believes to be a terror attack.

The attacker hit the crowd at the Arrivals area waiting for passengers to clear the secure zone.

The report (in English) from Russia Today on the attack. Scroll down that page for more details and some analysis.

The BBC has a lengthy coverage as well, and has links to more information.

Preliminary reports have several body parts of the bomber collected as evidence. The ФСБ (FSB) was apparently in pursuit of the attack cell earlier in the day, but did not catch on as to who and where until too late.

The War goes on.

***

Update:

UPI has it as two suicide bombers:

Witnesses told Russian media two people detonated their explosives as passengers walked from the international arrival area of Moscow's busiest airport, RIA Novosti reported.

Note, the two linked reports above have it as a single bomber. Someone at the investigation needs to address this difference.

No Progress... No Surprise.

The Istanbul round of the P5+G negotiations (the five UNSC Permanent Members and Germany) with Iran over nuclear proliferation has ended with no progress. The two reasons for the failure can be found in the same quote from the BBC article:

EU foreign policy chief Baroness Ashton, who led the international team, said Iran had come to the talks with pre-conditions.

So long as negotiations are entrusted to a nearly-powerless lead negotiator, Iran obviously feels free to engage in non-productive distractions... after all, their goal is to negotiate for nothing and take a long time doing that.

A different dynamic is required for the forces opposing proliferation to succeed.

I would suggest taking on Amb. John Bolton, empowered with a letter authorizing military and economic coercion, to lead any future round of negotiations... but then the Iranians simply wouldn't show up and then push would come to shove.

...which it likely will, anyway. May as well be moving forward those intervention plans, folks. Bets are we will need to use them.

Smolensk Crash ATC transcripts

The big picture is coming into focus, but very slowly.

The tragic crash last January at Smolensk that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski and 95 others on their way to a memorial service for the Katyn dead has been a matter of great confusion. Was it purely weather related? Pilot error? Air Traffic Control error? Some matter of political intervention on the part of either the Poles or the Russians?

It hasn't been the clearest of investigations, either.

The Russians took complete charge of the investigation and recovery, and spent most of their effort on not letting out exactly what happened. That didn't go over well at all in Poland...

So they released transcripts of the black box recordings. (As far as this author knows, however, the actual recordings remain in Russian custody. They certainly held them back for a long time.)

Now, the BBC reports that Russia has released transcripts of the ATC traffic... and that still doesn't really settle things:

Russia released the transcripts after Poland complained they had not been included in Moscow's official report into the crash on its territory.

Questions remain about communications with the doomed plane.

That would be because the transcripts seem almost nonsensical.

In their conversation in Russian, detailed in the transcript released by Russia along with its final report on 12 January, the Polish pilot appears not to take in what the Russian ATC officer is saying.

"...fog, visibility 400m," says the Russian.

"Understood," the pilot replies. "What are the weather conditions?"

The ATC officer spells out the visibility in English, then gives temperature and pressure readings, adding, at 1024: "There are no conditions for taking you."

"Thank you," the pilot replies, "but if possible we will try to approach, but if the weather is bad we will circle around."

The last message from the Polish plane, at 1040 as it tries to come in to land, is that it has switched its lights on.

It strikes tree-tops just before 1041, crashing about five seconds later.

The Russian ATC transcripts show controllers swearing obscenities in between desperate attempts to contact the pilot.

If what the transcripts say is what actually transpired... swearing obscenities is an entirely reasonable response.

This simply isn't going to be resolved until a full investigation by a third-party with access to original recordings happens.

Russia should invite one.

Khodorkovsky, Ledbedev found guilty

I could have picked any of several sources on this, but here is RFE/RL's version of the report that combines accuracy and context in the most readable fashion, I think.

Most all the details are there, but one example was not as clear as it could be. Here's how they cited it:

(Khodorkovsky)'s since been accused of stealing $25 billion of oil from his own company, Yukos, and laundering the proceeds, an allegation brought months before he was eligible for parole in 2007. Many believe he and Lebedev were charged as an excuse to keep them in jail, possibly until 2017.

What isn't said is that sum of oil production *exceeds what Yukos could possibly have shipped* in the period under challenge.

So, besides the fact that one can put aside any claims that Mikhail Khodorkovsky may have gained control of Yukos in the usual (questionable) manner in the "Wild East" post-Soviet times of the oligarchs ...those weren't the charges this time... it is now clear that the charges-as-filed are simply fabricated.

This was all about Khodorkovsky and his associates opposing Vladimir Putin.

That, apparently, is good for functionally indefinite detention in the "new" Russia.

"I'm not savvy about Russian affairs ..."

These are *not* the words one wants to hear from your country's Ambassador to Russia.

A Career-limiting Maneuver of the first rank, that.

Bye.

The government has decided to replace the Japanese Ambassador to Russia following his failure to gather advance information on Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to the disputed Northern Territories off Hokkaido last month.

Masaharu Kono, Japanese ambassador to Moscow, will be replaced by Chikahito Harada, Japanese ambassador to the Czech Republic, as early as January, the government decided on Dec. 23.

The replacement under consideration, C. Harada, *is* savvy about Russian affairs... the only concern might well be that the Russian School in the gaimushou (Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs) hasn't always been reliably ...how to put this delicately?... working for *Japan's* best interests, but in fairness to Mr. Harada his work in the Embassy to the Czech Republic recently has been entirely proper. He may well be a very fine choice for this tough assignment.

Meanwhile, Russian President Medvedev has gone back to stating Russia doesn't have to give up the Northern Territories. He certainly seems heartbroken to hear Japan is replacing M. Kono:

Medvedev deplored press reports that the Japanese government is planning to replace Ambassador to Moscow Masaharu Kono over his insufficient intelligence gathering on the president's visit to Kunashiri.

Medvedev said he was sorry that his visit had the unintended effect of helping to interrupt the ambassador's career.

Yeah well, I'm sure it is easy to feel that way if such a useful idiot fellow is departing. Spare us the crocodile tears, Dmitry.

Sunday Morning Push

Here's your Sunday Open Comments Thread.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

News to watch for: South Korea awaits only the lifting of the foggy weather to commence its next live-fire artillery training drill... for the troops on Yeonpyeong Island. This could get messy.

Russian state-of-the-nation speech delayed.

The speech, planned for this week, has been put off until at least the 22nd.

Well, that says what, but not why.

The folks at RFE/RL's The Power Vertical (a superb window into Russian politics) are offering a potential reason why:

Is Medvedev About To Redraw Russia's Map?

If so, then the biggest ever territorial reorganization in modern Russian is about to happen... cutting 83 existing administrative districts to 20... concentrating political power in super-regions each focused on a major metropolitan area.

Sure, that makes things more manageable for the powers-that-be in Moscow, but, such regional centralization has some pretty serious risks.

Read it all, and you'll see what I mean.

V. Bout in U.S. custody

It took two years of determined effort, but Viktor Bout is now in U.S. custody.

media reports: The AP via FOXNews; The BBC.

Job well done.

APEC Yokohama - Day One

When the highlight of the day's reports is the exercise in artistic indulgence that is the "virtual koi pond" in the convention center, you just know that not much good happened.

Just Not Going to End Well Situation: Medvedev spokeswoman Natalya Timakova speaking of the side meeting planned between Russian President Medvedev and Japanese PM Kan about the Northern Territories - "She added that Moscow's position that the disputed islands belong to Russia has not changed." No kidding. After all the other statements, the Vostok military exercises this year focusing on Sakhalin and the nearby possessions, the adoption of a formal Russian position that hostilities in WWII in the Pacific didn't end until September of 1945, and then the Medvedev visit to the occupied islands on November 1st of this year... you'd think it would be pretty obvious at this point. Even the Kan administration is going to come to realize that continuing to do favors for Russia is not buying them anything.

Petty Moment of the Day: US President Obama crying out "Stephen, don't fall in!" while Canadian PM Stephen Harper was looking at the virtual pool. Typical, but still disappointing.

Unsaid, but Lurking: Way too many of the nations surrounding the South China Sea have been nervous for years about the PRC's massive upgrading and enlargement of the PLA-N (their navy). After the events of this year, add Japan and quite possibly the ROK to the "concerned" list. The question is rapidly changing from "should something be said/done?" to "what are we going to say/do?". If that pops out in public statements during this conference, I'd say things could get rather ugly.

Sunday-come-on-Monday Push

Weekends are supposedly not a time for work-like obligations... *sheesh*

Here's some of what got missed:

30 years since Desert One. Yes, it still matters.

ANZAC Day was Sunday.

Some other people who write have gotten some great work out recently.

John Noonan on The Fall of the House of Mugabe. Would that it be fallen already.

Douglas Rogers on Zimbabwe's Accidental Triumph.

“What’s that got to do with it?” Mr. Muchauraya snapped. “Mrs. James was an African just like you. Sing what you normally sing.” When he turned to apologize for the interruption, he saw my father had tears in his eyes.

The most appropriate answer to everything wrong in the disaster that is Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) under Robert Mugabe & Co.

J. E. Dyer on Putin's great April. Almost makes one wish they were playing on a winning side... almost.

Geoffery Forden at Arms Control Wonk on The Cheonan sinking, explained. That pretty much limits the choices to a mine or a torpedo. Now, what to do about it?

***

This thread is left open for comments if you have any topics you'd like discussed, or suggestions as to things to look into in more detail here. The usual rules still apply: Play Nice.

As always, thank you all for coming here.

A note on the Moscow Metro attacks

There are lots of sites commenting on the Moscow Metro double suicide bombings of this morning, and I'll leave the general reporting to them as they'll have the reports directly from investigating officials long before I'll see them in the media stream.

However, here's a brief note on the attacks, specifically in answer to a question about how the Russian investigators will be able to identify the attackers:

No, unless there is some surprisingly good CCTV video footage available, it is unlikely that a recognition could be made from that alone. Instead, one can almost always find the heads of the bombers intact after the detonation of an explosive vest.

In a televised meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev, Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov said body fragments of the two bombers pointed to a Caucasus connection. The bombers have not been identified and Bortnikov did not elaborate.

That and some basic legwork on who was seen with who by surviving witnesses (and the CCTV) will likely leave a trail back to an identification... and maybe finger the accomplices.

Good hunting, ФСБ.

140 characters being a suitable limit

Clearly my existence is now complete...

Russian Ambassador to NATO and all around fun guy Dmitry Rogozin has a Twitter account.

(Apparently he's been big on it since last year. Shows what I know, huh?)

Readers here at CompHyp know he's one of my favorite people. The wit and wisdom of the man being entirely suited to a 140 character limit, I can not wait for his latest tweets. They are my second-favorite thing in the entire world. Really. Right after my dental appointment with Dr. Christian Szell.

"Is it safe?"

One heck of an election

This has been "fun" week in the election in Ukraine...

We got off to a great start with the definition of a one-sided debate as Y. Tymoshenko got left appearing alone when rival V. Yanukovych refused to attend their scheduled televised debate. Let's just say Ms. Yulia didn't let the opportunity go to waste.

Then, in an unrelated-but-timely event, the Intelligence Service of Ukraine bagged five Russian spies redhanded, expelling four and holding an Russian FSB Colonel on charges of espionage.

And then, with V. Yanukovych's lead, the Parliament of Ukraine passed a new law "...on February 3 eliminates the need for candidates' representatives to supervise vote-counting at individual polling stations", which was promptly answered by the Tymoshenko camp with the threat of mass protests if there is the hint of election fraud.

Election day is February 7th. Hang on to your hats, folks. It's going to be a ride.