The Weekly N&C for September 1st, 2008

Changing hats, rather than changing the dynamic.

The Government of S. Harper in Canada is to hold a snap election shortly. The obstruction tactics of the opposition parties and the rather slim majority the administration can scrape together when desperate have combined to leave Canada facing legislative gridlock. But when faced with an all-too-similar problem, the Government of Fukuda Yasuo (Y. Fukuda) in Japan has chosen to “change hats” rather than risk a snap election.

Here is what has come to be in Japanese politics, again (see below). Parliamentary politics in the case of a strong majority party or bloc are almost always games of timing. Yes, the Parliament is seated for some years, but the system also allows for a “snap election” that dissolves the Parliament and places all the seats up for election. The Administration, in the case of Japan, the naikaku, or Cabinet, has this authority at will. The usual game is played so: Having control of the legislative agenda, the party in power engages in a popularity contest for a period of time. They pass popular legislation, or make policy announcements designed purely to boost poll numbers, and when the Administration and the Party Policy Chief concur that things are good enough, they call an election. Great plan, isn’t it? Make sure you can win before you play the game. Well, it is great if you can do it…

Leave us not forget the other, and in this case to topic, situation. The Administration clings to power in the face of utterly dismal approval ratings. There is but one year left before a mandatory election call and at almost every turn the opposition party or bloc plays obstructionist. In the worst case, the opposition bloc has a majority in the non-decisive house of the parliament, and can delay or derail legislation until forcibly overturned by the decisive house of the parliament “railroading” the legislation through. That is just more fodder for the opposition newspapers when that happens, so approval ratings may well go down more. The ruling party now gets introduced to Mr. Rock and Mr. Hard Place, and it isn’t a very comfortable situation to say the least.

Let us look at the particulars in the case of the Fukuda naikaku and what they are up against. The key member of the ruling bloc is the jiyuuminshutou (Liberal-Democratic Party, or LDP), the old-line “conservative” party in Japanese politics. But they can’t hold a veto-proof majority in the shuugi giinkai (House of Representatives, the Lower House) of the kokkai (National Parliament) without help from a coalition member. That veto threat, by the way, comes not from the Administration as they represent the will of the majority bloc in the Lower House, but from the power of the sangi giinkai (House of Councilors, the Upper House) to, much as the British House of Lords can do, obstruct by delay any legislative bill the majority there disagrees with. For reference, the LDP even with supporting bloc-members, does *not* have the majority in the Upper House.

To hold government, the LDP has for many years been beholden to shin koumeitou (New Komeito Party, NKP), the cat’s paw of the souka gakkai Buddhist movement, and ardently pacifist (some might add selfish). By adding their numbers in the Lower House to the LDP’s bare majority the ruling bloc can well, keep ruling. Specifically, they can force through legislation when opposed. Good thing for them too, as they are most certainly opposed.

For other than a handful of Independents and Party-in-name-only minor players, the entire remaining landscape of Japanese party politics is dominated by the minshutou (Democratic Party of Japan, DPJ), the “labor” party in Japanese politics. They catch a nearly insignificant collaboration by the fragmentary remains of the far-left shamintou (Socialists, SDP) and kyousantou (Communists, JCP) and a couple of Independents, but functionally the DPJ *is* the opposition bloc. That unity of opposition is new in the last five years, and is the handiwork of the greatest political opportunist in the modern Japanese scene: Ozawa Ichirou (I. Ozawa), currently the DPJ President. This fellow has changed parties and affiliations more times than most politicians change their clothes, it seems. If you read about him a few years back, you may recall he ran his own party called the jiyuutou (Liberal Party, now defunct) as one of his many schemes after bailing out of the LDP back in 1993. But all those plans failed, and paled, compared to his move to join the DPJ, end the senseless and divisive feuding between the original leading members, and in the process get himself elected Party President. For those of you seeking meaning in that move, what it means is that he is one successful Lower House election away from being his party’s pick to form the next government. You may insert the sound of a satisfied mastermind’s nefarious chortle here.


So, the Fukuda naikaku faces a near-unity of opposition, a general approval rate in the sub-30% range that has hit far lower on certain issues, has been reduced to Cabinet reshuffling (see topic on Competing Hypotheses of 1. Aug 2008), and still couldn’t buy a break from either the mass media or his own ruling bloc allies. If the Administration tries to “railroad” through legislation on either support for the Global War on Terror (again) or on tax reforms vital to the financial health of the nation (but awesomely unpopular), the shrinking violets of the NKP may not back the move. But even with without the NKP on board for sure, one last option remained…

While not entirely unique to the Japanese Political System, there is a tried-and-true method to blame someone who is (now) out of the government for all the problems while keeping the Party-in-power, well, in power. Have the current souridaijin resign from both that job and that of Party President. Then hold a new “election” inside the party to select a new Party President. Lastly, use the majority position (even without NKP support, the LDP still has such) in the Lower House to approve a new souridaijin, who can then form a government. That is correct; the Lower House can approve a souridaijin without any vote or participation by the Upper House.

Yes, if you followed the news last year, this is basically what happened *last* September. Abe Shinzou (S. Abe) stepped down from the government “for health reasons” on 12. September, 2007 and was replaced on the 26th of the same month, giving him exactly one year at the top. Yes, he may well have been incapacitated, and he was unhealthy. I leave it as an exercise as to whether the two features were actually related. The selection process thereafter is what gave us the Fukuda government.

So, who is up next?

It is going to be an LDP insider, of course. The man best positioned is Asou Tarou (T. Aso), who lost to Y. Fukuda last time around. But in an interesting move, the 1.August reshuffle of ranks opened a couple of seats in the LDP management not normally appointed during a naikaku reshuffle, in this particular case the Secretary-General of the LDP job and that job went to T. Aso. He may not want to give it up, but with a Lower House election required no later than September of next year, the job is as risky career-wise as that of the Party President.

Don’t be fooled by the fellow’s populist credential of being a big fan of manga (Japanese Graphic Novels and Comics), by the way. It may make some fans for him in the younger adult ranks, but the man is a *hard-core* member of the right politically, especially on foreign affairs. Any member of the electorate who thought the Fukuda administration’s “make nice with the Korea(s) and (Red) China” stance was a good idea will not be signing up to support T. Aso. He hasn’t openly declared he is in the running yet, either.

After considering him, the water gets pretty shallow for the LDP. There is still a substantial line of thought that cries out for Koizumi Junichirou (J. Koizumi) to come back out of the Lower House and return to power. Not likely to get him back though, given how long he was in power and his avowed statements that he is done at the top.

If T. Aso *doesn’t* run for the job, there is lots of room to get daring. With polling numbers in ghastly shape and the DPJ just foaming at the mouth over the next Lower House election, why not take a chance? Here’s my pick to shake things up: Koike Yuriko (Y. Koike). She is vastly more competent than her resume reflects, and served very well in two of the Koizumi naikaku. Her stay in the Abe naikaku was almost unfairly foreshortened by bureaucratic interference, and it is pretty clear now who the villain of that piece was. She has also a bit of a history of running roughshod over faction-politics, which is never a bad thing when one wants to be a reformer. It only remains to be seen if she can line up enough other good parliamentarians to have a good choice for the various Ministries.

I’d take Y. Koike at the top of the ticket, and T. Aso running the party behind her, as the best chance of reversing what could be the first outright, indisputable defeat in a Lower House election that is looming.

Start the chant, folks: “KO-EE-KAY! All the way!”

End notes:

Here’s the revised report in English from The AP:

Fukuda Resigns

Here are the Personal Profiles of the various players mentioned, from Wiki-p:

Y. Fukuda
I. Ozawa
S. Abe
T. Aso
J. Koizumi
Y. Koike


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from the rush-post on this, earlier:

Topic: Japanese souridaijin (Premier; Prime Minister) Fukuda offers resignation 1 hour ago.

Story, original release, in Japanese:

From Yomiuri News Service

Story, in English:

The AP version, via NPR
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