Saturday, September 20, 2008

When they say fratricide, though, they mean it.

The best hope for the future of the Republic of South Africa, that the African National Congress (political party; ANC) fragments into bits and factions, may have just begun.

The Thabo Mbeki faction that once held party control as the heirs to Nelson Mandela's administration have lost control of the party machinery, and now are looking at mass resignations from the government because the Jacob Zuma faction that took over are demanding the resignation of the President (T. Mbeki).

The Mbeki regime was almost clueless on domestic policy, borderline kleptocrats, and gave protection to Robert Mugabe's ill-deeds in Zimbabwe (Rhodesia), *but* they were not tools of the unions and in fact were moderately pro-business. The next administration, likely headed by J. Zuma, will be all of those but worse, *and* is a tool of unions and may well be anti-business.

It looks like the reprisals and score settling between the groups will be pretty nasty, and may well split the party into several pieces. The Youth Wing of the ANC (the partisan thugs now answering to J. Zuma) have promised all sorts of trouble if a Zuma administration is not formed soon.

Believe it or not, this is a good thing in the long run.

*If* the ANC comes apart, and the "New National Party" disunites from the ANC, the chance for the Democratic Alliance and the minor parties (Independent Democrats and Inkatha Freedom Party) to stand up a reasonable slate of candidates may finally break the trend toward one-party dominance that has severely weakened a country that should be a model for the world.

3 comments:

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Paul Simao at Reuters also sees the possibility of a party split.

Purr said...

Hi!

I had briefly heard about South Africa last night-- I will have to read your links-- thank you!

As you know the big news here is Paulson- grrrr!

L.Douglas Garrett said...

More on this from The Times (UK):

Eleven (Cabinet) Ministers Resign

more talk of a party split.