The Weekly N&C for September 22nd, 2008

Ordem e Progresso

It means “Order and Progress” in Portuguese, and it is as fine a guideline for policy as it is a national motto. With the 5th largest land area of any country, and the 5th largest population in the world, you would think that Brazil would figure a bit higher on the international-attention scale than it does. Granted, having a nominal GDP in the 10th rank with that population gives a less-than-enviable US$10,531 per capita (PPP valuation, estimated, 2008), but in aggregate it is still nothing trivial. But until recently, unless one was a big fan of World Cup Football (soccer) or an industrialist needing iron ore pellets, one probably lumped Brazil in that category of thought that makes all things far away much less significant than they actually are.

Here’s a little intellectual exercise just to open up that thinking a bit. We’ll start with the simple things and build up:

Huge Rainforest all around the Amazon River: check

Big Christian statue on a mountain top: check

7,367 km (4,578 miles) of coastline: check

Some pretty darn nice beaches on some of that coastline: check

14 urban areas of greater than 1 million in population: sure enough… check.

They are the world leaders in sugar-cane-based Ethanol production: seems appropriate… check

The industrial base includes Vale (the former CVRD), the #2 mining company in the world: um… check.

That industrial base also includes Petrobras, a 2 million barrel per day extraction business: significant... check.

The largest Navy in Latin America: not a big surprise, so… check.

They operate their own nuclear fuel cycle and power stations: ah, so they do… check.

They have developed an aviation industry that builds world-class Airliners, including Jets: Oh really?

Did I mention that Navy has *and trains regularly with* an aircraft carrier of their own? It is a bit old, but still quite suitable for the use it is put to and has a fairly competent air wing of 1990’s refitted A4M Skyhawks.

As long as you are checking, the Brazilian Navy is in the negotiation stage right now to co-build their own nuclear-powered attack submarine as well.

Brazil might be looking a bit more significant than before in your eyes, now.

If so, that is an important first step because what matters next is what Brazil, or more precisely the Government of Brazil, thinks is significant. For a country that likes to claim it has *no enemies anymore*, there are still two things that immediately cause sabers to rattle and pride to take the foremost: Any territorial encroachments on land, especially in the distant Amazonas State which borders on Peru, Colombia, and Venezuela and brings the risk of the FARC narco-guerrillas with that, and; Any whiff of outside Imperialists coming to “steal” the wealth of the nation (especially the Yankee Imperialist kind). So when Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) hauls out a speech like *this* he is probably quite serious in his belief that the major threat to his nation’s future glory is… the U.S.A.

No, he doesn’t mean it the way Hugo Chavez does when he rants. That fellow is just a petty autocrat who is afraid for his own skin. When Lula says what he says about that, he is recognizing that public opinion in Brazil, in his party and in others, (Spanish language source) *is genuinely afraid* that the one power in the world with the capability to seriously threaten Brazil militarily would be willing to do so. Because, for the first time since The War of the Triple Alliance threatened the South Region, there is something important that belongs to Brazil that is exposed to a potential external threat. The places exposed are the Santos and Espirito Santo basins, and what is there is oil. Lots and lots of oil, enough oil to make Brazil a country with one of the largest known reserves of oil in the world if it all plays as it looks right now.

Lots and lots of oil is there, and all of it at great depth underground and at great depth undersea. In fact, had it even been possible to discover these oilfields before, they wouldn’t have been developable for technological reasons more than 20 years ago. Perhaps the easiest way to see what all is involved is to look at Petrobras’ own presentation on the initial efforts in those basins, *here* (pdf file). This is open-ocean work of a kind impractical until very recently, and at a depth and through a geological formation that both add to the challenge. Fortunately, Petrobras has gained a lot of experience (sometimes the hard way) in off-shore drilling and production in the last few decades, to the point where they are world-leaders in the business now.

Just as an aside, that presentation was mostly focused on the Tupi field in the BM-S-11 block, which is considered proven as productive. Just this year, you can add the huge Jupiter field (Condensate and Natural Gas) in the same block area, which if made productive would be a huge boost to both energy and petrochemical activities in Brazil. This all comes at a bit of a stunning cost as mentioned in The Economist, citing a one-hole cost of US$240 million for the first production-quality test well in the Tupi field. A huge investment is coming for Brazil, an investment of national wealth, national hope, and national pride. This is an investment that is certainly worth protecting, and one “we” should help let them protect.

When reports like *this* in Bloomberg hit the wires, the countries of Europe and North America should applaud *loudly and publicly*. When there is the opportunity to provide the material means of defense to Brazil, especially in Submarine and Anti-Submarine Warfare systems, we should continue to provide such. When there are open questions asked about matters like the U.S. Navy’s 4th Fleet re-forming, open and frank answers should be coming and not only from ChInfo (the U.S. Navy Public Affairs Office, Chief of Naval Information) but from political and military media sources all up and down the line, made available with Portuguese language translators and U.S. Department of State staffers *focused on Brazilian politics* on hand to field the fierce onslaught that can be expected from the domestic press in Brazil.

The same should be expected of the French, British, German, and other EU representatives who are already established in the armaments trade in Brazil. They should be open, cooperative with diplomatic efforts, and if they are feeling particularly noble-hearted, they should form cooperative efforts across national boundaries to provide Brazil will access to quality defense equipment and the training and integration exercises to work with any NATO flotilla that they wish to train with.

It is only by assuring the people, and the politicians that can be assured, of Brazil that the world (especially the OECD) recognizes that what Brazil has is a treasure beyond compare, that it is a boon for the economy of the entire world to see it safely developed and defended, and that it is indisputably, unquestionably, absolutely Brazilian.

Order and Progress.

***
End Notes:

A few easy public source items on matters mentioned. As always, check all citations on Wiki-p entries.

A general overview of Brazil

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

U.S. Navy’s 4th Fleet, past and present

Ships of the Brazilian Navy

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: personal profile

Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), the party Lula represents (and once led).

Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB), the party of the Senators questioning the purpose of the U.S. Navy’s 4th Fleet.