Thursday, September 4, 2008

September 4th discussion item

Here we have an example of national mismanagement on a grand scale: Zimbabwe (Rhodesia, formerly Southern Rhodesia).

Setting aside my personal vested interests about this case, let us just put this forth as an example applicable to several countries. The post-colonial government was overturned and a single-party system rose to power on the back of the forcible elimination of any and all meaningful rivals. That government has run things for over 20 years, and has run the country into the ground. Epic population dislocations, hyperinflation, utter desolation of the means of production, and no small amount of kleptocracy have occurred. Finally, an opposition party formed (against all means and efforts by the ruling regime) and has become politically meaningful again. The opposition contested one "election" and gained a little traction, but also brought reprisals down on their supporters. They waited and regrouped, and contested a second national-level "election" that actually may have been a real election, and by all investigations, won a broad victory. That was partly overturned by semi-legal acts, and an even more vicious round of reprisals came between that contest and a "run-off" for the Presidency. Said reprisals were so devastating that the opposition chose self-protection rather than to stand in the run-off, leaving the party holding sole power uncontested and thus on paper returning their "leader" to the office of the President. All efforts to negotiate a solution have been half-hearted, or biased. As of now, the situation looks like *this*.

It is also a remote nation perceived (wrongly) by many as unimportant to the World's Economy or Society. The fact that it has been overtaken by a stridently Communist regime is also considered to be of little importance. It is certainly land-locked and only a handful of neighboring nations have significant border length with it.

So...

Open Ground: Is this, or is this not, a case for R2P (Right to Protect) intervention? If so, upon which country or countries does the obligation of R2P fall? In the case it is not a suitable R2P case, is it in the vested interest of any nation to take illegitimate action or sponsor such as an "ends justify the means" sort of political decision?

The goal in this discussion is to look at a really hard situation, and make a reasonable case for some action (or no action). It is the making of the case that is the intent, not any specific political outcome for Zimbabwe (Rhodesia).

Very well, have at it!

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I crashed and lost the long post.

Howver it came down to that use of the R2P, would frafture the UN, and nations inimicable to wester powers up to and including Russia would would oppose that measure, and the populations of African nations would consider it neo-colonialism and would react accordingly. As sad as the fate of Zimbabwe is, we just have to stand by. On the other hand listening to PRI/BBC's 'The World" gives some indication taht the opposition is alive and well outside the broders. We jsut have to wait until Mugabe runs out of money to pay his troops and the ensuing instability and offer help aftermugabe's corpse is stomped paper thin in the riots.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

I'll presume more general cases were mentioned in the longer (lost) comment.

I would direct your attention to the language used in UNSC Resolution 1674 to show how complex this issue really is, and to point out that the R2P obligation is binding on *all* U.N. member states...

(wiki-p cited for speed of reply)

Karl Reisman said...

Their word is only as good as their deeds. But as bad as it is, I don't think that R2P can be invoked. Too many folks will work to Not have that happend just to avoid the precedent of it used against their own power.

Scott

Will said...

Damn. I left a comment, but it seems it got lost. Grumble.

The west isn't going to be able to intervene as ruggles said.

African nations should, but there isn't enough military power in the hands of liberal democracies in Africa to do it, and the totalitarians won't let it happen anyway.

Mugabe won't leave until he loses his grip on power, which as ruggles points out is dependent on money.

Can anyone think of a way to increase his burn rate without resorting to armed rebellion? That kind of death and chaos *may* be preferable to what the country has in store over the next 5-10 years anyway, but a less violent mechanism would be better for an awful lot of people.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Oh they ran out of real money to pay the soldiers months ago, but *somehow* Mugabe gave US$100,000 to Kirsty Coventry, the (expatriat, and colonial-ancestry) Champion Olymic Swimmer last week. --No, I'm not going to go off on her about this. She wasn't even born when the country was 'free' (as it got). She swims and wants a sponsor.-- She has had "national sponsorship" for years, as do all 'Zimb Olympians.

Devil's Advocate time for me, now:

IF the National Army going unpaid would lead to further and worse social disorder...

THEN under R2P thinking taken to a distant absolute, would it not be OBLIGATORY for the International Community to pay the salaries for the country?

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offtopic p.s.- I am testing for dropped comments. None see yet from here. Use the preview function to view posts in progress.