It seems there is pretty good reason to believe that something ill has befallen Kim Jong Il...
...he may have suffered a stroke.
Now before one gets all excited (favorably or unfavorably), do consider that while he is reputed to have suffered chronic heart disease *and* diabetes no meaningful confirmation of either has ever been found. There is an entire cottage industry built on predicting his health, mood and rationality on any given day. There is so much nonsense out there that a story of his having died in 2003 and replaced by a body double has even gotten some traction in the media.
But still, Kim Jong Il has not been seen at public events for almost a month, including the National Celebration held Tuesday.
He has got to go some day. The question that should give you pause is "After he goes, who takes over?", because with: thousands of artillery pieces sighted in on the city of Seoul, South Korea; a strategic missile force that can at least lob 500kg+ bombs across the Sea of Japan; and a crude nuclear (or sub-nuclear) weapons capability...
...one had best hope it isn't anyone who thought the attack on Korean Airlines Flight 858 was an good opening act.
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They were all over this on NPR today. Their speculation was that the sons were "unacceptable" to the Military leaders in KFR. It was commented that Oday and Koosay Hussein were Yale scholars compared to the Two younger Kim boys. (Forged Passport story on elder son inserted here). The thinking was that if the Military were to take control, then all discussions about nuclear weapons would cease as the military is not keen on arms reduction in any case.
A few years ago somone reported that should the Kim Family fall, that it would trigger one of the largest Humanitarian disasters in recent history.
In any case I find this interesting and it does dovetail well into the Nuclear talks stalling for about the past month. South Korean Press indicates he suposedly colapsed at a function on Aug. 22nd.
Scott
Follow-up report from Greg Palkot at FOXNews, based on his sources as of today:
backgrounder only, sources off-the-record
Key point: no concurrence as to how bad the disablity is.
It's hard to believe I could actually hope for Kim's survival. There is just no good answer for what happens to North Korea when/if the current regime collapses.
I hope no readers of this blog were planning to move to Seoul any time soon...
Im thinking that the comment about succession only beign announced when succesion is settled is probably the most accurate one. Still is it business as usual with the parade (wth the gose stepping babes in Skirts! woo!) or a deperate gloss over roiled behind the scenes action> time will tell but that is time added o those nuclear negotiations.
LDG
OK - here is my dumb question
If he has been deceased since 2003 using a body double (which I do not believe) and is now unable to make decisions due to a "stroke" - who is running the country, making decisions, and in charge of the nuke program?
I heard about his stroke today as well as impaired judgment due to the stroke-- what explains his behavior before?
@KC
re: "- who is running the country, making decisions, and in charge of the nuke program?"
There has always been a Worker's Party of Korea Politburo and a Central Committee of the Party behind the Kim dictatorship, but both are considered pretty weak. The commanders of the Armed Forces may very well have more authority in any leadership vacuum than either committee would.
There is no line of succession in crisis that can be reliably predicted.
@Susan
re: "what explains his behavior before?"
not much.
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