Thursday, September 11, 2008

Another Intelligence Estimate

This is a quick reminder about all the noise that hit the media when the last National Intelligence Estimate for Iran hit the U.S. political scene (and shortly thereafter the mass media of the world). That NIE claimed that it was no longer likely that Iran was doing "weaponizing" research on nuclear weapons, and it was seized on by every doubter of the Bush administration worldwide as truth incarnate.

Yeah, well.

That all be as it was, the architect of that NIE was one Thomas Fingar Ph.D., Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis. T. Fingar ran (or effectively ran) the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (commonly abreviated "INR") for a number of years before being pulled over into the DNI's office. While he was at INR, they got a heck of a good reputation for getting the intelligence "right".

So what changed?

Maybe, just maybe, it was political expediency. You be the judge, because *here* he is again out doing the political dog-and-pony show.

Forgive me Dr. Fingar, but I doubt this process is what you meant about letting the information speak for itself. In fact it looks to me like you are carrying water for that faction which passes for "Realists" these days over at DeptState.

1 comment:

Will said...

I'll start believing these when they predict something that actually happens.

For instance: Did the NIE predict Ghadaffi would come clean on the PanAm 103 bombings and volunteer to give up his nuclear program?

Until things like that become normal, I'll assume the NIE is written by the same kind of people who negotiated SALT-II.