Friday, October 31, 2008

Too much to hope for?

The Foreign Minister of Russia, S. Lavrov, will be visiting Japan next week for two days of "cultural matters" and consultations with the gaimushou (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan).

Supposedly, the Northern Territories issue is on the agenda.

Is it too much to hope for that he is bringing the groundwork for a final settlement?
But he also urged Japan to make concessions on the issue, saying, "Every problem requires compromise for a solution."
How about we concede not to evict your occupiers, and you get on with getting off our islands?

There are extant agreements from the conclusion of World War II with the rest of the Allied Powers that implicitly concede karafuto (Sakhalin) and the chishima rettou (Outer Kuriles) to Russia. Get the Northern Territories issue off the table, and then get on with signing a parallel peace accord, and that would make that all official.

Otherwise, one may as well toss the whole resolution in the trash and call the entire region in dispute... which would mean no more Japanese financing of Russian oil and gas projects, and no more freedom of navigation for Russian vessels.

Is that where one really wants this to go?

2 comments:

Karl Reisman said...

The Russians? Conceding Territory? In what Universe have they ever wothout the collapse of their national will? I don't see that happening, unfortunately for the Japanese, but we can hope. if there are any Minerals on those islands worth going after, evenmore reason for the Russians to stay. The seem never to have been good neighbors.

L.Douglas Garrett said...

The big valuable is the sea--extends the Okhotsk EEZ (of whoever has them) in the very tight southern end, and gets some pretty nice Pacific fisheries as well.

It is going to take a crowbar to get them off those islands, for sure. The only question in my mind is will it be diplomatic, economic, or *other*. Given the track record of the Russia Desk at the gaimushou, bets are pure diplomacy would result in our accidentally(?) giving Hokkaidou to Russia. Not in exchange. Just giving it to them. ((sheesh))