Saturday, February 5, 2011

Freedom for Egypt: Second Saturday

Yes, this thread title does make it official: Just as I've come out on the side of the forces of Liberty during Iran's protests and many other movements against autocracy and / or theocracy, I'm fully on the side of liberterian elements in the demonstrations in Egypt. Credit Michael J. Totten and friends of his like "Sandmonkey" for convincing me there is another possible outcome other than M. ElBaradei's group playing Mensheviks to al-Ikhwan's Bolsheviks. It is going to take a lot of hard work, but it is possible, I think. A risk worth taking, in any case.

Questions about who takes over if President Mubarak resigns from more than just his Party office at the NDP (which also meant good riddance to the rest of the Politburo including his son, Gamal) have come my way. The easy answer is "whoever the Army picks", but that actually isn't correct.

There are two possibilities:

. under the Constitution, The Speaker of the Majilis Al-Sha’ab ('People's Assembly'; Lower House of Parliament) would step in as a caretaker until a new election. This has happened once before, after President A. Sadat was assassinated. If it were to happen after a resignation at this time, the man stepping up would be Ahmad Fathi Sorour.

.. but the law also recognizes the President naming a succession by office, which would make newly-minted Vice President O. Suleiman the next in line.

I'll take a long-odds guess and say I think that in the case of a resignation, the Parliament would move quickly to endorse the Vice President, but that for at least a few days the Speaker would caretake. In the case of a removal (a functional coup by the Army) all bets would be off.


Also, as referred to in that story linked above, the Americans are having more than a little trouble finding a single voice on this matter. That best get sorted out soon, but I'm not particularly hopeful at this point.

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