Sunday, November 29, 2009

Election Day in Honduras

'tis the 29th of November; time to go to the polls to elect the next President of Honduras. Thankfully, that *can't* be M. Zelaya.

Here's the pre-election coverage from the BBC. Sadly, our friends at Angus Reid Global Monitor have no current polling data for this election, so we'll have to presume a strong chance for either of the leading candidates. The Beeb picks it like this:
The favourite to win is conservative Porfirio Lobo from the National Party, and Elvin Santos from the Liberal Party is considered his nearest rival.
I'll hedge and say that the Liberal Party has done a fine job of distancing themselves from Zelaya's supporters by holding firm in the interim under R. Micheletti; that might be enough for E. Santos to make it.

But what I hope for, and what I think we should all hope for, is that Honduras gets to choose their next President in a free and fair way. That's what the whole removal of Zelaya was about, after all.

Viva Honduras! Viva Democracia!

***

The best English-language source from inside Honduras on all this remains La Gringa's Blogicito. She's doing a great job monitoring what is on the local media, and what is heard in the street; a far better source than most of what is hitting the wire services. She also has links to lots of Spanish-language sources for those that can read or listen to them.

For summary information from a wide variety of sources, you can also look in on our other friend, Fausta's Blog (Honduras tab). Fausta covers lots of things, so I've taken the link directly to the sort for Honduras items for your convenience.

3 comments:

EXJq9cYTjIE0Sxf6YWTOWq05Hj47OaU- said...

There was a ban on the publication of polls a few weeks before the election. The last available survey had Lobo Sosa 16 points ahead of Santos. We would have loved to have more surveys to review!
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34436

L.Douglas Garrett said...

@EXJ...

Aye, but no worries. You folks (@Angus Reid) do a very fine job, and I'm always happy to cite your research on matters.

@All

The first exit polling is coming in. Quoting a summary at the Beeb:

"Official results have not yet been released, but exit polls showed he had 56% of the vote, and his nearest rival Elvin Santos had 38%, according to Channel 5 television and HRN radio.

"Two other exit polls also had Mr Lobo ahead by more than 10 percentage points, Reuters news agency reported."

The other number that will matter a lot is the turn-out rate. Keeping in mind that there was a about a 40% absence from the polls in the 2006 election, any turn-out numbers in the 70%-or-better rate would be a wonderful day. (Historically, the highest turn-outs were close to 80%, so hoping for 70% is entirely reasonable.)

L.Douglas Garrett said...

Update, Monday:

We have a winner, and a polite concession by the closest challenger. The next President of Honduras will be Porfirio Lobo Sosa.

Electoral Turn-out appears to have been a little over 61%, which is significantly better than the (I had to look up the exact number) just-over 55% who voted in 2006.

So everyone is with the program now... except M. Zelaya, who apparently believes some rather different numbers. It will be interesting to see what comes next for him. Is P. Lobo offering a sort of amnesty? Will the Brazilians helping him back into exile? or... what?

The vote in the Congress regarding the possiblity of "re-instatement" comes on the 2nd of December.