Saturday, February 7, 2009

Salvadoran, Ecuadoran Presidential Races

The situation as to the upcoming (March 15th) Presidential Election in El Salvador is one of a tightening race, according to local polling reported by Angus Reid Global Monitor.

Looks like the victory by ARENA in the capital mayoralty was not a fluke, and it is just possible that trends are turning against the FMLN, finally...

However, a matter of some risk is occurring in Ecuador's Presidential race. A total of 10 candidates are in the preliminary round, which should deny incumbent President R. Correa an outright 50% of the vote to win without a runoff... *BUT*...

...the election law also allows for a win with a 40% share so long as that candidate is also more than 10 points ahead of the next closest rival. There is a real possibility that could happen if the opposition is fairly evenly distributed.

As soon as polling data comes in on this current field of candidates, it would be great to see the numbers to try to predict whether a Correa outright-win is possible.

-hat tip to friend MP and blogger Boz, who cites the original report from El Comercio of Quito (Spanish language source)

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