MEND goes back on the attack

So much for the cease fire in the Niger Delta region:

A militant group in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta says it is ending the ceasefire it declared last October.

source - the BBC.

That would be the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which taken as a bloc is the largest and most dangerous armed faction in the Delta insurrection.

There is some quibbling over details as to "which MEND" ended the cease fire, as there certainly were some factions that had never come in from the bush when the amnesty was offered last year, but this is looking to be pretty much an all-call for militancy to resume.

Expect a return to the usual kidnappings, boat hijackings and pipeline raiding across the region, for now.

Husband unaware

It says something about a relationship that this is the defense offered when the wife is accused of criminal conspiracy, but in fairness it is something that should be considered.

Sheryl Cwele, the 50-year-old wife of Siyabonga Cwele, appeared in court charged with conspiring to bring cocaine into the country.

Mrs Cwele was charged with procuring a woman to collect drugs in Turkey and of getting another woman to smuggle cocaine from Brazil.

She remains in custody until her bail application is heard in a week.

Mrs Cwele is facing the charges with Frank Nabolis, a Nigerian national arrested in South Africa in December.

What it isn't, however, is something that adds to one's chance of keeping one's job... when one is the Minister of State Security, the chief of all civilian Intelligence Services in the Republic of South Africa.

IF, and that's a big *if*, this indictment holds up then Dr. Cwele is an utterly compromised leader for no other reason than that his family-member's associates can (and will) be used against him. The very fact that this case has been in limbo since the December arrest of a (co-)conspirator and the arrest in Brazil *in 2008* of a drug mule linked to the accused causes some serious worry about the investigation. After all, criminal accusations of politically powerful individuals have a way of suddenly ending in the Republic...

Watch this case closely for a measure of how reliable an ally the South African Security Service remains in the GWOT and International CounterNarcotics.

Zelaya heads for the door

This is a breaking news item, but for now here's what is out there:

Deposed Honduran leader Manuel Zelaya has left the Brazilian embassy there and is heading into exile in the Dominican Republic, reports say.

Fully clothed. Just like last time.

Sadly, it looks like the deal to let him go has some kind of immunity offer... I hope it is at least contingent upon his shutting up and going away quietly... but I'd still rather see him stand trial.

***

ADDENDA

The AP has it that the deal lets him slide for treason, *but* leaves the door open to pursuing charges for "embezzlement in connection with $1.5 million in government funds".

Sri Lanka election results

We have a winner, with President Mahinda Rajapaksa carrying 57.8% of votes cast.

The other major candidate, retired General Sarath Fonseka, is said to challenge the results, but rumors of his going into revolt or about to be arrested appear to be false. Time will tell, but it looks like things will be as stable as they get in Sri Lankan politics.

The big story of the election was that while there were great hopes that the minority populations in the recently liberated north and east would come out for the polls, only perhaps a tenth of voters in that region came to the polls. That's a pity for more reasons than merely the fact that Fonseka was counting on them to have a shot at winning... it is a pity because the future of Sri Lanka will be far brighter when everyone believes in the democratic system enough to participate.

For shame, Peru.

The weather has been awful... not a big surprise given the season...

...yet ~2,000 tourists (exact count unknown), who were allowed to go up even in these conditions, have been trapped by deadly mudslides in the vicinity of the historic Machu Picchu site, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

This is a large, remote area, accessible by trail and a specially-build road and rail line (which can't operate in dangerous weather like this). Many bridges along the line are washed out, anyway. Other than the facilities for the tourist arrivals and departures, there is basically nothing more than a few hostels there in the way of shelter or supplies.

The national government did declare a state of emergency, and did begin a rescue/relief effort. But it is one thing to set in motion a relief plan, and quite another thing to run it with any competence, priority, or basic fairness.

Washington Farfan, a guide at the site, said: "The situation is chaotic. Unfortunately, the rescue effort has not been organised correctly. People are really upset right now."

He also said that food was running short. "We haven't been given anything to eat. Each one is left to work out his rations," he said, adding that the vendors at the tourist site had immediately doubled their prices when it became clear the foreigners were stuck.

Bad, but almost expected.

Rudy Chalco, a tour guide with a group of elderly Europeans, said that the rescuers were not complying with the government's orders to prioritise the evacuation of children, the elderly and sick, and that some were paying to skip to the top of the list.

"The situation is about to erupt," he said.

"We don't have any more food, disorder is starting to reign, the soldiers and police that are here don't know what to do or how to organise the help that has arrived, people are getting desperate and no one is taking charge."

Worse.

There are five people known to be dead already: one tourist, a guide, and three locals.

If the Government of Peru doesn't get a handle on this, there will likely be more.

I *know* that the Government has limited resources. That isn't the matter in question. This is:

After the rescue is completed... UNESCO should demand a criminal inquest into rescuers accepting or even demanding bribe money... as a condition of UNESCO *not* suspending World Heritage financial support over this fiasco.

Egypt Plot Trial

Remember the arrest of a number of Hezbollah-linked individuals operating in Egypt's Sinai region last year? Maybe you recall reading about it here at CompHyp on 13.April, 2009?

The trial of said detainees is underway and the prosecutor isn't going easy on the charges:

"These attacks were planned by representatives of this foreign country that wants to spread its influence on the Arab and Muslim worlds. And Hezbollah is nothing but a tool used to carry out its wicked goals," prosecutor Amr Farouk told the emergency state security court.

"We demand the maximum punishment on the traitors."

...

The prosecutor called for death sentences for six of the defendants, charged with terrorism and espionage-related offences, a judicial source said.

That makes this as much a trial on Iran's activities (as the hand behind Hezbollah) as a trial of the accused.

Expect diplomatic sparks to fly as this trial resumes in February.

New Venezuelan Defense Minister : UPDATED

On Saturday, now-former- Vice-President and Minister of Defense Ramón Carrizález *and* his wife, Minister of Environment Yubirí Ortega, are said to have resigned for "personal reasons". Now, word of his official replacement at Defense has come out: it is General-in-Chief Carlos Mata Figueroa, formerly chief of the Operational Strategic Command.

This should get some ears to perk up, as R. Carrizález is by repute a stauch partisan of Diosdado Cabello, who is the man who almost certainly has gained the most by being loyal to Hugo Chávez... and his replacement C. Mata Figueroa is said by sources to be solid with the Bolivarian Revolution... so no shakeup there...

Any bets on what the "personal reasons" were?

Here's one... caveat: it's a rumor at this point:

Me dijeron que renunciaron porque van a nombrar a 4 cubanos generales de la FAN, Amanecera y veremos si los nombran y si los milimaricones se dejan.

According to this source, the regime will appoint 4 Cubans as Generals in the Venezuelan Armed Forces. Let's say that isn't going over well in some quarters, and it could explain the resignation. By not well, I mean it is garnering reactions like this:

"TRAICIÓN A LA PATRIA."

"Treason to the nation." ~ if that perception is widespread in the military... and it well may be... this could be the last straw.

More on this as confirmation and alternate sources come in.

***

Update 27.January

from an article at La Nueva Cuba, an independent Cuban internet daily published through Independent Press Infogroup. (background on them, here.) Key point:

La Habana quiere imponer a Caracas una agenda bien estructurada de medidas destinadas a "garantizar y asegurar la estabilidad y permanencia del régimen bolivariano en el poder.
Los raulistas no confían en la lealtad de los altos mandos venezolanos y buscan reemplazarlos paulatinamente con hombres que gocen del visto bueno de los generales-empresarios, el verdadero grupo de poder en la Isla caribeña.
Una de las exigencias cubanas, considerada el "detonante" de la crisis, es la de que a cuatro coroneles cubanos estacionados en Venezuela, se les conceda de inmediato la nacionalidad venezolana y que los mismos sean promovidos al grado de generales de brigada y nombrados como jefes de unidades élites del ejército venezolano.

They read the situation as a larger plot with Cuba having already in country (Venezuela) four Cuban officers of the rank of Colonel, just parked. The officers would be granted Venezuelan nationality and placed in command of critical brigade formations of the Venezuelan Army to guarantee the control of the elite formations.

((sarcasm))
Anyone else seeing a problem with this besides me?
((/sarcasm))