Somehow, some way, the protesters are able to keep at it in spite of having almost no meaningful outside support.
That "in spite" part should be changed. If the Obama administration lacks the fortitude to do so, then they should at least stay out of the way and let the Europeans do what can be done. Sure would be nice if Japan weighed in, but that's not likely to happen unless the violence grows worse... if even then... hazukashii desu, yo (shameful!).
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Not only influencing North Africa...
The successes in Tunisia and Egypt are not only influencing popular movements in North Africa and the Arabian states; the proof that people power can bring down an autocrat is being used as an example to motivate others in need as well... but there is a price.
Don't look for kleptocrats like Mugabe in Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) to let such things go unchallenged. He's the same ilk as Qaddafi in Libya, a thug, in power only by controlling the state security forces and by cutting in key supporters on a share of the loot. That's why he had everyone at the seminar arrested, and that's why things won't change until the campaign to get rid of him moves out of seminars and into the streets.
Don't look for kleptocrats like Mugabe in Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) to let such things go unchallenged. He's the same ilk as Qaddafi in Libya, a thug, in power only by controlling the state security forces and by cutting in key supporters on a share of the loot. That's why he had everyone at the seminar arrested, and that's why things won't change until the campaign to get rid of him moves out of seminars and into the streets.
Housley on Hiz'b at the border
Recommended reading (and viewing, of the video segment):
CompHyp friend and FOXNews reporter Adam Housley has this report on Hiz'ballah (Hezbollah) smuggling activities in Mexico targeting access to the U.S.A.
It's a good report, and one that covers a topic with several facets (Narco, anti-Americanism, GWOT). Yes, they really are using bases in Venezuela and contacts in Nicaragua and Mexico to try and get to you...
CompHyp friend and FOXNews reporter Adam Housley has this report on Hiz'ballah (Hezbollah) smuggling activities in Mexico targeting access to the U.S.A.
It's a good report, and one that covers a topic with several facets (Narco, anti-Americanism, GWOT). Yes, they really are using bases in Venezuela and contacts in Nicaragua and Mexico to try and get to you...
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Sunday Late Push
Here's your Open thread for Sunday.
Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.
As always, thank you All for coming here.
***
More information is becoming available...
... about the protests in Bahrain. After the rough stuff, now some signs of something to talk about.
... and about how the Libya revolt is going; it is becoming a tribal fight, it seems to be moving into Tripoli and cracks are starting to show in the facade.
More here as I know more.
Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.
As always, thank you All for coming here.
***
More information is becoming available...
... about the protests in Bahrain. After the rough stuff, now some signs of something to talk about.
... and about how the Libya revolt is going; it is becoming a tribal fight, it seems to be moving into Tripoli and cracks are starting to show in the facade.
More here as I know more.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Some Thoughts on Three Insurrections
I've but a moment to write here but, as I've been piecing together the fragments of news about the continuing insurrections spreading across North Africa and the Middle East, I've been struck by how little except anti-government motivation the ongoing uprisings share.
Yemen: This is really just the latest continuation of the South Yemen (Aden) revolt-in-all-but-name against the Saleh regime that has been going on for years. The motivations there are those of a post-colonial South born of both socialist and liberal desires against a classic Arab Nationalist regime... which can of course be quite socialist (cf. Egypt in the past) but has no tolerance for Socialists of the former-Soviet-inspired type, at least not in their own population. There is also an ongoing Islamist insurgency across the North and South that has in equal measure cut deals with the movement-anti-government types and with the Saleh regime. So there really isn't the "ordinary people against the autocratic regime" situation there was in Egypt, or Tunisia before that. The current circumstances are just an opportunity.
Libya: I have scoffed before as to the possiblity that a genuine popular uprising could stand a chance against the al-Qaddafi (al-Gaddafi) regime. That may actually have been premature of me, although the Libyan State Security forces have happily killed eighty-some-odd protesters so far in Benghazi and other parts of the east so far. But there is some real determination in the demonstrations to the point that they are on the verge of making eastern Libya a region in full revolt. There is so little news reporting possible, though, that it is rather unclear as to *who* is doing the demonstrations; Islamists? a Shopkeepers revolt? the entire population irrespective of politics? No good way to know, at least for now. The other issue is that the protests have not spread to the capital city, Tripoli. While it is almost always better for a mass popular uprising to start in the outlying areas, it can't make the essential jump from being a local insurrection to being one that brings down the regime unless the movement has enough strength to at least threaten the seat of power. If that comes, then you may politely discard any respect for my previous dismissal of possible success and cheer for what would be one heck of a revolution. We'll sort out exactly who the revolutionaries are after they win, ne?
Bahrain: This one is the hard one. There really is a revolt in progress, and the regime really is making the protesters pay in blood for every day in the streets, but... there is a lot more to what is happening than merely the loyalists gunning down the demonstrators (about 5 dead, all in, as of yesterday; lots of wounded, though). The matter is vastly more difficult for the following reasons: because Bahrain was actually the regional leader in the advancement of civil rights under a monarchy from 1999 up to 2008; because the territory of Bahrain is still claimed by Iran as part of their sovereignty (cf. Saddam Hussein's claim vs. Kuwait as a model); and because the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia considers the monarchy on Bahrain and indeed the land itself to be one of its vested interests (the island is connected to Arabia by a causeway, for one reason; as a buffer against Iranian pretensions of 'owning the Gulf' as another). I'd like to say that the demonstrations are at least well-intentioned, that they are genuine, popular and of a liberalizing intent. I can't. I know all too well how much it serves Iranian interests to pour fuel on the discontent held by the (roughly) 70% of the Bahraini population that share Shi'a Islam and near-brotherly ethnic ties with the coastal regions of Iran. If the Pasdaran (IRGC) isn't shoveling in all it has to stir things up on Bahrain, then they've really lost a step. This is a golden opportunity for them to make the monarchy and the Saudis look very, very bad... and they might end up controlling the place at least in part if things go completely out of control.
***
There are, of course, several other movements and insurrections happening across the region. I'm not discounting any of them; I've just little to add today about those other areas. You shouldn't overlook them, though. Jordan, Algeria, there are more, and reports do occasionally penetrate the all-too-inattentive mass media from time to time.
Yemen: This is really just the latest continuation of the South Yemen (Aden) revolt-in-all-but-name against the Saleh regime that has been going on for years. The motivations there are those of a post-colonial South born of both socialist and liberal desires against a classic Arab Nationalist regime... which can of course be quite socialist (cf. Egypt in the past) but has no tolerance for Socialists of the former-Soviet-inspired type, at least not in their own population. There is also an ongoing Islamist insurgency across the North and South that has in equal measure cut deals with the movement-anti-government types and with the Saleh regime. So there really isn't the "ordinary people against the autocratic regime" situation there was in Egypt, or Tunisia before that. The current circumstances are just an opportunity.
Libya: I have scoffed before as to the possiblity that a genuine popular uprising could stand a chance against the al-Qaddafi (al-Gaddafi) regime. That may actually have been premature of me, although the Libyan State Security forces have happily killed eighty-some-odd protesters so far in Benghazi and other parts of the east so far. But there is some real determination in the demonstrations to the point that they are on the verge of making eastern Libya a region in full revolt. There is so little news reporting possible, though, that it is rather unclear as to *who* is doing the demonstrations; Islamists? a Shopkeepers revolt? the entire population irrespective of politics? No good way to know, at least for now. The other issue is that the protests have not spread to the capital city, Tripoli. While it is almost always better for a mass popular uprising to start in the outlying areas, it can't make the essential jump from being a local insurrection to being one that brings down the regime unless the movement has enough strength to at least threaten the seat of power. If that comes, then you may politely discard any respect for my previous dismissal of possible success and cheer for what would be one heck of a revolution. We'll sort out exactly who the revolutionaries are after they win, ne?
Bahrain: This one is the hard one. There really is a revolt in progress, and the regime really is making the protesters pay in blood for every day in the streets, but... there is a lot more to what is happening than merely the loyalists gunning down the demonstrators (about 5 dead, all in, as of yesterday; lots of wounded, though). The matter is vastly more difficult for the following reasons: because Bahrain was actually the regional leader in the advancement of civil rights under a monarchy from 1999 up to 2008; because the territory of Bahrain is still claimed by Iran as part of their sovereignty (cf. Saddam Hussein's claim vs. Kuwait as a model); and because the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia considers the monarchy on Bahrain and indeed the land itself to be one of its vested interests (the island is connected to Arabia by a causeway, for one reason; as a buffer against Iranian pretensions of 'owning the Gulf' as another). I'd like to say that the demonstrations are at least well-intentioned, that they are genuine, popular and of a liberalizing intent. I can't. I know all too well how much it serves Iranian interests to pour fuel on the discontent held by the (roughly) 70% of the Bahraini population that share Shi'a Islam and near-brotherly ethnic ties with the coastal regions of Iran. If the Pasdaran (IRGC) isn't shoveling in all it has to stir things up on Bahrain, then they've really lost a step. This is a golden opportunity for them to make the monarchy and the Saudis look very, very bad... and they might end up controlling the place at least in part if things go completely out of control.
***
There are, of course, several other movements and insurrections happening across the region. I'm not discounting any of them; I've just little to add today about those other areas. You shouldn't overlook them, though. Jordan, Algeria, there are more, and reports do occasionally penetrate the all-too-inattentive mass media from time to time.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Not all demonstrations happen in the streets...
...some happen in the halls of Parliament.
This hasn't been the best of weeks for this author; perhaps you, the reader, also have been having a tough go of things? Well, compared to what Kan Naoto souri-daijin (Prime Minister N. Kan of Japan) is up against, we'd best not be out begging for sympathy. He's going to need all there is available:
Don't insult him, or our intelligence.
If he didn't mastermind the revolt, he damn well should have.
...because it might well work.
This hasn't been the best of weeks for this author; perhaps you, the reader, also have been having a tough go of things? Well, compared to what Kan Naoto souri-daijin (Prime Minister N. Kan of Japan) is up against, we'd best not be out begging for sympathy. He's going to need all there is available:
Kan, Japan's fifth premier since 2006, told reporters in the evening he is not considering going back to the "old way of doing politics."I'd say that's a dangerous revolt, too. That "party veteran" comment is kind of inappropriate about Johnny-come-lately to the DPJ Ozawa Ichirou, notorious political opportunist and kingmaker, who is under reprimand by the party (related to indictments for political funds misappropriation). He's been around forever, politically, but has switched parties and factions more times than is easily counted.
But despite Kan's renewed resolve, more DPJ lawmakers began speaking out that his resignation may be inevitable, a day after 16 lawmakers of his Democratic Party of Japan, who are affiliated with party veteran Ichiro Ozawa, launched a revolt.
The rift in the DPJ has widened after the leadership proposed this week that Ozawa's party membership be suspended due to a political funds scandal, for which he has been indicted. Ozawa has denied any wrongdoing and has repeatedly said he will prove his innocence in court.Oh, please.
It is unclear whether Ozawa masterminded the revolt.
Don't insult him, or our intelligence.
If he didn't mastermind the revolt, he damn well should have.
...because it might well work.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Further evidence of the influence of CompHyp.
In between all the other matters I get to talk about, having something lighthearted and yet of some good use is always a joy. This is one such moment.
You might recall I was a bit direct with Her Majesty's Prime Minister a few weeks back, re: the failure to maintain properly the Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office:
The new cat at No. 10 is Larry (Lawrence, more formally, I'm told), a four-year old tabby from Battersea Dogs and Cats Home. Yes, a rescue. One with superb mousing skills as well, and an also-welcome willingness to claw up news reporters uncivil enough to pick him up without asking. OK, maybe that last part is outside the usual job requirements...
For once, if ever, a politician has made a decision that we wholeheartedly support and applaud.
Bravo, Mr. Cameron. Well played.
You might recall I was a bit direct with Her Majesty's Prime Minister a few weeks back, re: the failure to maintain properly the Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office:
This isn't hard, Mr. Cameron.Well, it seems this ended well after all.
The resolution is even good media optics.
Consider it a sop to the Traditionalist Right of the Party, if you must.
Something with sharp claws would be of use shredding those unreasonable budgetary requests from holdover Public Servants anyway.
I'll send you the contact information for a rescue centre in London.
Get a cat.
The new cat at No. 10 is Larry (Lawrence, more formally, I'm told), a four-year old tabby from Battersea Dogs and Cats Home. Yes, a rescue. One with superb mousing skills as well, and an also-welcome willingness to claw up news reporters uncivil enough to pick him up without asking. OK, maybe that last part is outside the usual job requirements...
For once, if ever, a politician has made a decision that we wholeheartedly support and applaud.
Bravo, Mr. Cameron. Well played.
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