Sunday *ARRGH*

Yes, this should be the Open Thread for the week.

But first, a moment of utter frustration, expressed in three parts:

. Claims are Preah Vihear temple has been damaged during continued cross-border clashes:

Cambodia says a disputed 11th Century temple - a UN World Heritage site - has been damaged during continued cross-border clashes with Thai troops.

Part of Preah Vihear temple collapsed after a Thai bombardment, officials said. Thailand has not commented.

.. A mutiny in a part of the Sudan Armed Forces (the North army) went into the streets in Malakal, Upper Nile State, when soon to be Southern-nationals refused redeployment orders to the North, and then spread:

The mutiny in Sudan's army first broke out on Thursday in the politically sensitive southern town of Malakal (ed: spelling; error in original).

Twenty people were killed during heavy fighting, including two children and a Sudanese driver working for the UN refugee agency UNHCR, who were caught in the crossfire.

The fighting then spread to both Melut and the oil-rich settlement of Paloich on Friday and Saturday.

At least 30 people were killed, all of them soldiers, according to state officials.

... The Egypt Crisis has had its first round of 'negotiations' and the media is already lumping all the anti-regime factions together. This is not promising. The meeting was to try and find a path to democratic reform. One of the groups attending is about as undemocratic as you can get:

The banned Muslim Brotherhood and other groups took part in landmark talks with the government after 13 days of street protests aimed at forcing President Hosni Mubarak to resign.

The other groups, not counting ElBaradei's useful front for the Islamists, had something to talk about and I hope the regime listened, but giving al-Ikhwan a foot in the door of the process is just asking for trouble...

((insert vocal expression of frustration here))

OK.

Fine.

Enough of that.


Now it's your turn. Here's your Open thread for Sunday.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here... and putting up with a little frustration today.

and... Serbia?

Note to readers: you have not time travelled back to 1848. There are no riots spreading across Europe... as of yet.

But no competent insurrectionist ever lets a good opportunity go to waste. That, by the way, is the explanation for the mass anti-government protests in Belgrade.

Watch out for the folks behind this:

Clearly referring to events in Egypt and Tunisia, Mr Nikolic told the protesters: "Elsewhere in the world people are telling governments they should listen to the people.

"I know you are disenchanted and bitter over this dishonest government which is tormenting you. Let us torment government instead."

He warned that if elections were not called in two months' time, he would begin a sit-in outside parliament.

Mr Nikolic - formerly the head of the ultra-nationalist Radical Party - founded the Serbian Progressive Party less than three years ago. But his popularity is now such that he poses a serious threat to the government, our (BBC's) correspondent says.

(bold added by me)

That would be the Srpska Radikalna Stranka (Serbian Radical Party; SRS), a group famously blinded by their nationalist and exclusionist thinking. In fairness, Tomislav Nikolic did break with them in 2008 to form the Srpska Napredna Stranka (Serbian Progressive Party; SNS) but it isn't really clear how far toward moderate he and his party have moved. They talk a good game, but make no compromises on Kosovo or Bosnia matters... indeed, would reopen Croatian disputes if they could. Consider the jury to still be out on this lot.

But they might just scare a little good sense into the current administration. They could use a little something to concentrate their attention on doing their jobs.

Freedom for Egypt: Second Saturday

Yes, this thread title does make it official: Just as I've come out on the side of the forces of Liberty during Iran's protests and many other movements against autocracy and / or theocracy, I'm fully on the side of liberterian elements in the demonstrations in Egypt. Credit Michael J. Totten and friends of his like "Sandmonkey" for convincing me there is another possible outcome other than M. ElBaradei's group playing Mensheviks to al-Ikhwan's Bolsheviks. It is going to take a lot of hard work, but it is possible, I think. A risk worth taking, in any case.

Questions about who takes over if President Mubarak resigns from more than just his Party office at the NDP (which also meant good riddance to the rest of the Politburo including his son, Gamal) have come my way. The easy answer is "whoever the Army picks", but that actually isn't correct.

There are two possibilities:

. under the Constitution, The Speaker of the Majilis Al-Sha’ab ('People's Assembly'; Lower House of Parliament) would step in as a caretaker until a new election. This has happened once before, after President A. Sadat was assassinated. If it were to happen after a resignation at this time, the man stepping up would be Ahmad Fathi Sorour.

.. but the law also recognizes the President naming a succession by office, which would make newly-minted Vice President O. Suleiman the next in line.

I'll take a long-odds guess and say I think that in the case of a resignation, the Parliament would move quickly to endorse the Vice President, but that for at least a few days the Speaker would caretake. In the case of a removal (a functional coup by the Army) all bets would be off.

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Also, as referred to in that story linked above, the Americans are having more than a little trouble finding a single voice on this matter. That best get sorted out soon, but I'm not particularly hopeful at this point.

And in other stories...

...as they say in the news business when they gloss over a bunch of other reports that didn't make the editor's cut for airtime, here are some of the stories you've likely missed with all the focus being on the Arab world and certain countries' economic issues (all links below courtesy the fabulous AlertNet):

Madagascar: New road map can end Madagascar leadership row - SADC. I'll believe it when it works. This is, what?, power-sharing plan number six or so?

Congo: Gunmen attack airport in Congo's copper capital. No, not in the Kivus. This was down in Lubumbashi in Katanga Province; historically a hot spot for trouble, but recently the large security presence for the mining industry made it a pretty quiet place. That may not be holding, though.

Kenya: FACTBOX-Kenyan cabinet rocked by Kibaki's judicial nominations. Further evidence that the Kibaki-Odinga powersharing agreement is getting all the credence paid to it by the stronger party that usually happens in such cases... in other words, none to speak of. This will be a big problem if a constitutional crisis takes full form before the elections scheduled for next year.

and over in Southeast Asia...

Thailand / Cambodia: Thai, Cambodian troops in deadly clash near temple. Again. I've covered this dispute here at CompHyp before at some length, and it is still an open risk of major conflict between the two countries. The Royal Thai Army spokesman says it looks to have been a misunderstanding that led to the exchange of fire, and then an artillery duel, and that:

"There is no point in fighting because it could escalate and damage relations... We don't want that."

No kidding... especially when such an incident happens during a meeting in Cambodia between the Foreign Ministers of the two nations. Well, now they've really got something to talk about.


More stories, and more details on things, as time allows.

Egypt: Second Friday (Updated)

First off, a clarification: in yesterday's thread, I commented that the Army will likely intervene in cases of violence by pro-regime groups against anti-regime groups. *This is probably only true at the rank and file level.* The troopers out in the streets making the decision at the moment they are caught in the path of any onslaught. I am told that they, and most mid-rank officers, really do take their reputation as 'defenders of the people and the nation' seriously. Where this may be going awry is at much higher levels... there are at least a couple of reports that some elements of the leadership in both the security services and the military may have signed off on letting the pro-regime crowds gather and motivate. Whether that means there are pro- and anti- regime elements inside the military command structure, or simply that the old patronage and relationship links bind a (hopefully) few serving higher level officers more closely to chums in the NDP than to their national service, or something else... remains to be seen. It isn't institutional, however. The Defense Minister and other military leaders joined the forces deployed at the Tahrir Square demonstration and the demonstrators were heard to chant "The army and people are united." (see article, below)

Now then, on to today: I can do no better than to direct your attention to the BBC's coverage today... 'Day of departure' rally in Egypt. There will also be updates on their "breaking news" ticker as well if something goes sideways... although reports are Friday Prayers passed with far less rabblerousing than occurred last week.

***

Updates, late Friday 'blog time:

The number of attacks on journalists has continued to rise, and not all the claims blame rioting mobs... there are signs that security force members (Interior Ministry, in particular) are party to some of the attacks. RSF (Reporters sans Frontieres; Reporters without Borders) is keeping tally and trying to get someone to listen.

There may have been an assassination attempt against Vice President Suleiman. The reports seem clear enough, but the sourcing is still pretty weak. More about this is watching for, however...

Egypt: Second Wednesday go Thursday

It's been ugly.

Likely you've seen the reports of the pro-Mubarak protesters finally figuring out how to get at the anti-Mubarak protesters in the square... and the day-long rioting... amazingly, even after a re-count overnight, it seems only a handful actually died although there are reports from 600 to over 2,000 injured enough to need care.

I've talked about 'orchestration' in previous reports here, and usually I was implying something about the motivation or methods of the Oppos; Wednesday's mayhem in Cairo was the other kind of 'orchestration'. Some one on the Loyalist side figured out that (a) the Army isn't stopping anyone, really, and (b) both the Army and some more moderate voices in the Oppos have said it is time for the demonstrations to wind down, so some number of Oppos supporters had packed it in. That left, I'll wager they thought, rather fewer people that didn't deserve a walloping standing around the Square. Time to go crack heads, by that line of thinking. So who gave the go-ahead and who arranged the details of massing the counter-protest? Not the NDP (the political party of the regime) itself, but probably some of the Ward Bosses and their Leg-breakers who have made a pretty good trade over the years delivering elections for the NDP.

The good news, if there really is any after all that, is that even the new Prime Minister has apologized to the people and

...pledged to investigate the violence, calling it a "fatal error".

Indeed. The Army is now almost certain to side with the Oppos and fire on any Loyalist attempts at violence.


***

Also, just a reminder: There are several superb news feeds out of the region in English, mostly Israeli. Here's Haaretz Breaking News feed, which has been very good so far through this all.

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Yesterday's News, but related: We spoke of Yemen being caught up in some of the echoes of all this, reigniting the near-perpetual anti-government protests (mostly in the South). Well, seems something came of that: President Saleh won't run for reelection in 2013, at least, so he says. A year is forever in politics in Yemen.

Egypt: Second Tuesday (Updated)

Here's where things are as of now (expect updates on this later):

The mass protests have formed, and they are indeed massive. Cairo protest may be in the hundreds of thousands; Alexandria and Suez are reporting thousands; other demonstrations are reported in the smaller cities and Upper Egypt.

Yesterday's Egypt Update here had news of Frank G. Wisner Jr. getting the call to act as a "representative" for the Obama administration. Just for fairness sake, here is FP's Josh Rogin's take on the choice: "...too close to Mubarak?".

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Related item: It may be that an effort to forestall the growth of protests that have started in Jordan is underway. King Abdullah of Jordan has dismissed his cabinet and appointed a new prime minister amid large street protests. Luck on that. Having Jordan go up at the same time as Egypt, and yet no one in Syria thinking to burn down the House of Assad, is either an ugly coincidence or the best managed Islamist plot in decades. If the protests do continue to spread (Yemen doesn't count; the South hates the Northern government 24/7, they don't need inspiration) we'll have a clue, though. A spread to Syria would plausibly be a self-generated movement; A spread to Saudi Arabia would more likely be something orchestrated (and very short lived, in my opinion. The House of Saud does not tolerate disturbances.) A spread to Libya would be... well, who cares why?... great.

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Update, end of day Tuesday, 'blog time:

Mubarak spoke to his media outlets... said a lot of what would be expected... about the only thing worth taking seriously is the 'promise' not to run as a candidate in the election coming this September and to step down from office after that election.

Note to Kyoudou (Kyodo wire service; Japan) and their AP partners: Getting the story WRONG doesn't help. Mubarak said he IS NOT running again.

Then... there is this. I have no reason to disbelieve Clarice Feldman, nor her now-attributed correspondent, but since the letter is one of opinion there isn't much to trace for authenticity. What I can say is, based on other sources, much of what is said about protest sizes, orchestration, police roles and the sense of how this is being a bit gamed all seem to be true or closely authentic opinion.

So we watch, we wait, and might I suggest keeping a deep suspicion of anyone who claims to be a "leader" of all this... political, regime, or opposition. I'm not sure there is a real leader. In fact, I'd like it better by far if there wasn't.

But there might be one. Look very carefully.