Doing it wrong

Josh Rogin at Foreign Policy's "The Cable" has the details on how the Obama administration badly bungled the Iraq SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) negotiations. Here are two key points:

She (M.C. Sullivan) said that the administration's negotiating strategy was flawed for a number of reasons: it failed to take into account Iraqi politics, failed to reach out to a broad enough group of Iraqi political leaders, and sent contradictory messages on the troop extension throughout the process.

"From the beginning, the talks unfolded in a way where they largely driven by domestic political concerns, both in Washington and Baghdad. Both sides let politics drive the process, rather than security concerns," said Sullivan.

and

Administration sources and Hill staffers also tell The Cable that the demand that the troop immunity go through the Council of Representatives was a decision made by the State Department lawyers and there were other options available to the administration, such as putting the remaining troops on the embassy's diplomatic rolls, which would automatically give them immunity.

"An obvious fix for troop immunity is to put them all on the diplomatic list; that's done by notification to the Iraqi foreign ministry," said one former senior Hill staffer. "If State says that this requires a treaty or a specific agreement by the Iraqi parliament as opposed to a statement by the Iraqi foreign ministry, it has its head up its ass."

This is a case study in making damn sure that petty and unimportant things override strategic imperatives, one that likely Americans will one day rue. I'd say the same about Iraqis, but the lesson of history in that region is that very few fools around those parts live long enough to rue their mistakes. But the blame for this outcome, if one were to wish to place it, should not fall on the Iraqis. This, and the awful possibility of having to go back there one day not so far in the future, should be squarely placed on the heads of those in the Obama administration that wilfully chose this outcome.

While you might have been watching

While you might have been watching things about the latest twists and turns in Libya (and *yes*, while I like my coffee as-intended I do prefer my Libya de-Qaddafinated), there is another story out there that hasn't been getting the 24/7 media treatment the last couple of days like the End of Moammar has been getting:

Are you aware that Kenya has had quite enough of al-Shabaab and related Somali thuggery raiding the Dadaab refugee camp, kidnapping aid workers and snatching tourists off the Kenyan coastal islands, and generally fomenting mayhem in and against Kenya?

The Kenyan armed forces are now *in* the Trans-Juba region of southern Somalia, and itching for a fight. Back at home, Kenyan internal security services are to root-out the al-Shabaab operations in Nairobi.

This is the largest intervention in Somalia since the Ethiopian military pulled out of (most of) Somalia after their intervention... which crushed the Islamic Courts movement and did give the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia a little breathing room, but then took their eyes off the prize as the remnants of the Islamic Courts and their al-Qaeda affiliates reformed as al-Shabaab...

Here's hoping that the Kenyan forces chose a manageable portion of goals to achieve, and get busy on achieving them. It does look like their plans are of limited scope and do-able from a capacity point of view, but it remains to be seen when al-Shabaab chooses to stand and fight (perhaps at the town of Afmadow) how well the Kenyan forces will hold together.

A supposedly unrelated move in Mogadishu by the African Union (AU) force there to clear the last southern district of the city of al-Shabaab troops has gone off on schedule and on objective, but reports of heavy AU casualties are circulating. Even discounting any claims by al-Shabaab (which *will* be ludicrously overstated), it may well have been a rough go for the AU forces.

Since you likely won't see much about this on the network news, here is the go-to link for Africa news if you'd prefer more than what the BBC has offered. Specifically, here are the links to Kenya news and Somalia news. Caveat: You'd best know something about the newspapers cited to know any biases. I can only recommend that you do a little Wiki-searching or Source-Watching to see what repute any given paper is generally held in. No time to be teaching a class on East African mass media right now; my regrets.

Yes, well...

...I've been obliged. Usual reasons.

Here's an Open thread as a catch-all for any questions or issues about any of the myriad of stories that have thundered across the news the last month or so. I'll have a couple of them up over the next day or two, but you may well have something worth discussing that I'm to pass over in my efforts. So here you go.

Also:

I've been asked why (elsewhere), after the 9/11 memorial thread, there hasn't been the regular memorial posts regarding Gothic Serpent, USS Cole, and so on that I have previously made a habit of posting about. The answer is simple: It's just been too sad this year. Those sort of topics require a righteous sense of vengeance that, while it certainly still burns in me, is contrary to the need I have right now to come to terms with the sad parts. So... I'm rolling it all together and will post Remembrance Day (Veteran's Day) as I did for Memorial Day. 'Nuff said.

OK, play on with the Open thread, but remember the usual rules still apply: Play Nice.

...and thank you, All, for still coming here.

Marange

This is an item I've been holding on the desk since last month when I was doing a round of Kimberley Process -related work...

*This* is why the European Union should not be trying to continue to allow diamonds mined at Marange, Zimbabwe (Rhodesia), onto the world market:

The main torture camp uncovered by the programme is known locally as "Diamond Base". Witnesses said it is a remote collection of military tents, with an outdoor razor wire enclosure where the prisoners are kept.

It is near an area known as Zengeni in Marange, said to be one of the world's most significant diamond fields. The camp is about one mile from the main Mbada mine that the EU wants to approve exports from.

The company that runs the mine is headed by a personal friend of President Mugabe. A second camp is located in nearby Muchena.

This won't end until the ZANU-PF Kleptocracy is driven from power...

You realize, of course, ...

...this means war.

No, not the Bugs Bunny cartoon joke.

Bets are, this is the run up to the real thing.

Never Forget

September 11th, 2001

Never Forget; Never Forgive.

This may sound to the more sensitive-minded of you like a recipe for an unending war. Horse Hockey. It is a recipe for seeing our part of this war to a lasting and victorious resolution. You see...

There used to be a thing called "State Shintou" in Japan.

There isn't any such thing now, and no one mistakes the religious practice of Shintou with the former "State Shintou". One is a philosophy and practice of living with and in the world. The other was a nationalist political structure that cloaked itself in the supposed legitimacy of a religion... and then was turned into an intolerant ultra-nationalist system of propaganda and social control in the service of aggressive Militarist schemers. (cf. Ienaga Saburou (S. Ienaga)'s "The Pacific War, 1931-1945" for an education in just how hateful it was.)

Good riddance.

It took killing a few million people, or so, to get it done away with.

It cost several hundred thousand Allied lives (many more counting the Nationalist Chinese) and easily that number of civilians caught in the war zones or slaughtered by Imperial troops in places like Manila.

I think it was worth it.

When the topic comes up, so do my neighbors and colleagues... although many of them lost grandparents or parents in the war. I'd go so far to say that even the largest number of those I've met that hold the Imperial System as the proper form of government for Japan have utter contempt for the insane-by-any-modern-measure Army schemers that ruined Taisho Democracy and precipitated the Pacific War.

Yes, I do live in Japan. Have done so for more than a decade. I'm a Permanent Resident. Politically, I'm about as close to being a Meiji-era Conservative Monarchist and Patriot of the nation as one can be without holding Japanese nationality. This is my adopted home and likely where my bones will rest one day.

I can do so because once, ~70 years ago, the forces of Liberty were willing to do what needed to be done to fight back, to turn the tide, to corner each and every element of the enemy, and then to grind them into utter and absolute capitulation... or kill them... and then root out and destroy the very socio-political system that brought forth that enemy. Every.Last.Piece.

Today, as it has been ever since the 2001 AUMF, calls for nothing less. Consider...

Once, back in the early 21st Century, there used to be a thing called "Islamism".

There isn't any such thing now, and no one mistakes the religious practice of Islam with the former "Islamism". One is a philosophy and practice of faith. The other was a nationalist political structure that cloaked itself in the supposed legitimacy of a religion... and then was turned into an intolerant ultra-nationalist system of propaganda and social control in the service of aggressive Militarist schemers...

Never Forget; Never Forgive.

All you need to know about...

...the quality of the new administration here in Japan.

It took the Noda naikaku (jp: Cabinet; Administration) a grand total of eight days in office to pull this stunt.

Not like they had much left on the bench to form this Cabinet: the Hatoyama and Kan governments didn't have a lot of depth; those also used up several people's "turn" in less than useful assignments, and; the one strong talent available (Maehara Seiji; S. Maehara) almost took a pass on even trying for the leadership because he recognizes that between talent available and the challenges out there that are repeatedly dragging down administrations, this really isn't the time to be volunteering for what looks a whole lot like 'taking one for the team'.

Expect more slip-ups from the current crew and don't take any bets on them lasting even the "expected" one year in office without some serious odds on the wager.

It could be worse, though.

Ozawa Ichirou (I. Ozawa) could have gotten the Premiership.