The Kingdom of Thailand has, by a vote of parliament, invited Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Opposition (to Thaksin Shinawatra) coalition to form a new government.
Let us see if it holds. The coalition only gained a majority by having a key party leader defect from the Puea Thai (formerly-People Power Party; formerly-Thai Rak Thai; Thaksin's party).
Monday, December 15, 2008
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Sunday Morning Push
There will be no new discussion thread today, mostly to allow me time to work on the Weekly piece.
Lots of things left to do with the existing discussion threads, and I'll be around to comment on them too. If that isn't enough, there is still this week's Open for you all to make your own fun.
Otherwise, there are no administrative matters to mention; All goes well.
Great seeing some new faces commenting, and as always, Thank You for coming here!
Lots of things left to do with the existing discussion threads, and I'll be around to comment on them too. If that isn't enough, there is still this week's Open for you all to make your own fun.
Otherwise, there are no administrative matters to mention; All goes well.
Great seeing some new faces commenting, and as always, Thank You for coming here!
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Immoral? So is market manipulation
Friday's news brought the statement by Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa that the foreign debt he has ordered left un-served is "immoral", and that for no reason other that that Ecuador shall default on the debt when the timer runs out on Monday.
Yeah, yeah, and usury used to be against canon law too. Maybe he'll show up on Monday for a press conference dressed as a priest?
The trick in all this this was the failure to service interest was a buy-back fraud. By triggering the 30 day default timer last month, the price of Ecuadorian global bonds dropped like a stone, and the GovEcuador was then buying them up cheap to self-reconcile them.
More on this all here, at Reuters.
The game is now coming to its end and either R. Correa will hide behind recently rewritten local laws or it will be fight time in the legal system over the default.
The utterly foolish thing about all this is: Ecuador defaulted widely only 10 years ago. Any non-State lender who was willing to go back into a market so badly tainted almost deserves to take the loss this time too.
Yeah, yeah, and usury used to be against canon law too. Maybe he'll show up on Monday for a press conference dressed as a priest?
The trick in all this this was the failure to service interest was a buy-back fraud. By triggering the 30 day default timer last month, the price of Ecuadorian global bonds dropped like a stone, and the GovEcuador was then buying them up cheap to self-reconcile them.
More on this all here, at Reuters.
The game is now coming to its end and either R. Correa will hide behind recently rewritten local laws or it will be fight time in the legal system over the default.
The utterly foolish thing about all this is: Ecuador defaulted widely only 10 years ago. Any non-State lender who was willing to go back into a market so badly tainted almost deserves to take the loss this time too.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Starting to look like a good investment
As of just before midnight (0000hrs 13.Dec local), the reports have the en (JPY)-to-the-US$ rates just under ~90.40. The bailout-mania in Washington D.C. has taken its toll again.
Even with the risks of the American economy, and political intervention therein, the situation is almost one where if one is holding JPY right now, finding something worth buying that is priced in US$ is almost too good to be missed.
Yes, that goes for Corporate Investments as well (but if you are planning to buy General Motors, do wait a bit).
No, this simply can not last long. The enormous fraction of the Japanese economy that is based on US$-denominated trade can not endure prolonged periods of sub-100 exchange. I would argue that sub-110 is unsupportable. That means we will soon be back to open intervention by Nihon Ginkou (Nippon Ginko; Bank of Japan) like we had twice a year in the 1990's~2004 period.
Even with the risks of the American economy, and political intervention therein, the situation is almost one where if one is holding JPY right now, finding something worth buying that is priced in US$ is almost too good to be missed.
Yes, that goes for Corporate Investments as well (but if you are planning to buy General Motors, do wait a bit).
No, this simply can not last long. The enormous fraction of the Japanese economy that is based on US$-denominated trade can not endure prolonged periods of sub-100 exchange. I would argue that sub-110 is unsupportable. That means we will soon be back to open intervention by Nihon Ginkou (Nippon Ginko; Bank of Japan) like we had twice a year in the 1990's~2004 period.
The Open Thread
Here is your open thread for the next 7 days.
That which is not a thread topic, goes here. Also, any topic you want to bring back from the dead or any suggestions for a new topic, goes here.
caveat: the usual rules apply.
Refresher Course on the usual rules:
. Play Nice.
.. This is the place for all those random thoughts, political or other, that you feel should be out here in public view.
CAVEAT: This is not an invitation to mayhem, and comments that run wildly astray will get deleted with no further notice.
That which is not a thread topic, goes here. Also, any topic you want to bring back from the dead or any suggestions for a new topic, goes here.
Refresher Course on the usual rules:
. Play Nice.
.. This is the place for all those random thoughts, political or other, that you feel should be out here in public view.
CAVEAT: This is not an invitation to mayhem, and comments that run wildly astray will get deleted with no further notice.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Going a-Hunting Ashore?
Good news: It looks like the U.S. is willing to champion a UN Security Council resolution to empower the international efforts against Somali Pirates to engage in land operations. Better yet, the Somali Transitional Federal Government is in full support of the proposed plan.
Bad news: The TFG may well have encouraged this resolution (and they did send two letters almost begging for UN action over the last weeks) because they are up to their eyebrows in problems of their own. The Islamic Courts Union anti-government Islamists have fought their way into the edges of Mogadishu as of this morning, and the Ethiopian allies of the TFG are already planning for a 2009 pull-out.
Going to be an exciting New Year, to say the least.
Bad news: The TFG may well have encouraged this resolution (and they did send two letters almost begging for UN action over the last weeks) because they are up to their eyebrows in problems of their own. The Islamic Courts Union anti-government Islamists have fought their way into the edges of Mogadishu as of this morning, and the Ethiopian allies of the TFG are already planning for a 2009 pull-out.
Going to be an exciting New Year, to say the least.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The Man is Well Understood
A strong contender for quote of the day comes from Lebanon's Samir Geagea regarding the recent scheming by political-turncoat Michel Aoun and the Syrians:
Might be wanting to add one J. Carter to the "be worried about" list, after M. Aoun's name. He is wandering around the neighborhood doing his self-important dance again.
In answering a question about status of Christians after the visit to Syria by Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, Geagea said:
"In light of past experiences of the late Kamal Jumblat, Suleiman Franjeih and Rafik Hariri, I'm not worried about the Christians, but I am worried about Aoun."
Might be wanting to add one J. Carter to the "be worried about" list, after M. Aoun's name. He is wandering around the neighborhood doing his self-important dance again.
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