Win

Lower House Election in Japan.

After all the troubles, and the additional disappointment of November in the USA, finally there is a clear victory for those of us with at least some amount of sense.

A big win, too:

The Liberal Democratic Party took 294 seats of the 480 out there.

Their "allies" New Komeito took another 31.

Two minor parties that might actually be allies of the LDP, Your Party and Japan Restoration Party, took 18 and 54 seats respectively.

Oh, and the Democrats? The ones that had 230 seats (+ a handful of useful idiots minor party supporters)? They got 57 seats... fifty seven.

Now if we can overturn that damnable Consumption Tax Increase, get some real tax reform here, and get back to spending government money primarily on the things government is supposed to do...

So yeah, we've got a chance here. Sorry Yanks, you had yours... but we'll see about trying to help once we've got our problems under control here.

Remembrance Day, 2012

Remembrance Day.

Armistice Day... and Veteran's Day in the U.S.A.

The list of friends to visit got rather longer this year, but that's how I spent my day.

I still think it is quite the pity that my adopted country (Japan) pays no national recognition to the day, but the bad memories of WW II apparently still outweigh the credit due to the glorious dead of Meiji and Taisho times (1860's~1920's). About the only event I know of is at the "Foreign" Cemetery in Yokohama, which always has a Remembrance Day that notes the Japanese role in WW I and The Siberian Intervention in addition to the recognition of Commonwealth graves at that site... but it's been years since I was down that way.

Ich hatt' einen Kameraden...

***

On a more upbeat note, my best Veteran's Day wishes to:

My BBBAM (Big Brother, by another Mother) who reportedly remains hale and hearty in his retirement. E-8 on his way out the door (a couple of years ago now), but still properly addressed as "Agent", and...

The ol' Misawa hand (another BBAM, but younger) who managed to fit in a whole bunch of non-military fun in between episodes of showing that a few Zoomies sometimes have to get out in the dirt and do a real job.

Both you guys be well and safe... and I'll see you 'Stateside maybe this Spring.

***

Quick reminder before anyone lumps me in again with the heroes that this day honors: I am not formally considered prior-service. The US Army did see to my first years of training (and a couple trots around the block) and the USMC did kindly provide for an Honorable Discharge when it was time to get out of uniformed service. The rest of the party after that doesn't officially count either.

Some thoughts...

Some thoughts...

and an outburst

...about losing four Americans including Chris Stevens (U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens; Libya) in the Benghazi Consulate Attack, and the current protest / assault against American interests sweeping across various countries-in-turmoil.

Yes. I did wait for a couple of days to get as many different reports in as I could before commenting.


First the outburst:

DAMN IT! Avoidable; it seems as of information coming out today, predictable; and absolutely unforgivable that an Ambassador was in a low-security Consulate in a risk-area at ten o'clock at night with only his traveling (and likely doing more than one job) Diplomatic Security close-team at the location.

Now the thoughts:

There should currently be a search for at least two replacement Ambassadors going on in Foggy Bottom. The public conduct of the US EMB CAIRO has been shameful and I don't care if the Ambassador was out and he left Public Affairs in the hands of underlings. Command Responsibility and all that.

While we're at it, this sort of multi-level screw up should fall on the Administration, especially the SecState. Given the crew currently running the regime in D.C., that's not going to happen voluntarily, but it should.

There can't be, for many reasons, any public recognition of some of the people who kept the 37 Americans that survived the Benghazi Consulate Attacks (multiple wave complex assault; it was not just a riot, folks), it is probably ok in the near future to hang some public "thank-you" on the small detachment ...reportedly U.S. Marines, reportedly only eight men... that were rushed in from the Embassy in Tripoli and were essential in holding things together until a proper rescue / evacuation could be done. Same goes for the loyal-to-the-Libyan-government troops that did help... yes, there were some.

The apology from the Libyan government and their promise to bring the attackers to justice is one that should be accepted. It also should be waved in the face of any local official that interferes with the effort to bag the attackers... oh and while one is at it, do find out why the local Libyan "guards" helped the attackers continue their assault... and bag them all too.

Egypt, specifically "President" Mursi, on the other hand... need to pretty quick be doing the old Chinese Kowtow crawl to the steps of the White House for their role in actively promoting the fraud that led to the Cairo Riot and Perimeter Breach... or a reply somewhat similar to that made to the Boxer Rebellion is entirely in order.

Karzai in Afghanistan, jumping on the "Outrageous Outrage" bandwagon, needs to remember his place in the order of things... or else.

In fact, the entire "Outrageous Outrage" as a political mechanism by the leadership of an chronically insecure social theocracy needs a little rough treatment by the civilized world right now. Yes, I know it is "your custom" to be so outraged (presuming one is a hardened Islamist; no such claim applies against Sufi or other Muslims that are also victimized by the fanatics)... might I remind one and all of the British Colonial-era reply as to the Hindu practice of Sati (suttee), paraphrased as: "You may burn her, as is your custom, but then we will hang you for murder, as is our custom."

The timing of all these events ~ Tunisia; Libya; Egypt; Yemen; the provocations in Afghanistan and other places ~ is not coincidental. A concerted effort was made to get the "insult to the Prophet" translated into Arabic and publicized juuuuuust in time for the eleventh day of September, and then it was pushed out in the various local media anywhere someone could be found to take offense.

There is a real possibility that the original "movie" that is the supposed excuse for all the "Outrageous Outrage" justification mentioned above is not legit. Several serious questions about the main person behind making the film are being raised... like a history of criminal fraud and false identities... and the claims of Jewish or Coptic interests being behind the film production are looking pretty fake too (at least as of today). In the old school, we used to call these sort of inside-the-opponent-country propaganda jobs "Active Measures"... and I'd say this case is similar enough to bear a whole lot of investigation.

Lastly...

It is helmets and shovels time for any American, (or European, or Japanese) diplomatic presence anywhere within reach of the fanatics. Shutter the Consulates and Offices and get everyone back inside the Embassy. Dig in deep, fellows, and aim true when they come over the wall. Because Friday is the day of prayer... and the frothing fanatics will be doing everything they can in their sermons to stir the masses into doing something very very stupid.

***

I am reminded (thank you, Glenn Reynolds!) that the paraphrase above re: Sati is more correctly rendered as The Napier Response:

"Be it so. This burning of widows is your custom; prepare the funeral pile. But my nation has also a custom. When men burn women alive we hang them, and confiscate all their property. My carpenters shall therefore erect gibbets on which to hang all concerned when the widow is consumed. Let us all act according to national customs."

  Welcome Legal Insurrection readers! Thank you, Professor; It's great to be the Post of the Day.

College Insurrection

Longtime readers here know that CompHyp has a good friend in Professor William A. Jacobson, a Clinical Law Professor at Cornell (and in his younger years, quite the Russia expert). We 'blogged together during the Honduras Autogolpe Crisis. Well, his efforts at his shop, Legal Insurrection, have been going swimmingly... Law and Politics, mostly American issues, but all very good work... and now he's expanding the franchise:

Here's his latest effort: College Insurrection. Done in the same flavor as his original work, but focused on presenting issues as seen by conservative and libertarian student writers.

It is another great blow struck against the Established Academic Bias, and I hope it is very successful.

Sinai issues

In the wake of the insurgent terrorist attack that killed more than a dozen Egyptian Army soldiers at a camp on the Sinai-Israel border, the Egyptian Army was compelled to act... and did so by remilitarizing a significant part of the Sinai and then whacking a fair number of the resident and transient terrs. So far, so good. I have it on good authority that some number of (older) M-60 MBTs were part of the Egyptian Army force sent in, and that there was open communication with Israel to forstall any concerns with that being a violation of the terms of the Camp David Peace Accords.

Well, some time has passed, and as I've mentioned (see previous thread post) there are signs that the Egyptian 'government' and military aren't on the same page any longer... and now there are some concerns.

...entirely warranted concerns, in my opinion.

Not a good time to be stuck out on dust, checkpoints and rowboat duty. Might be time for Task Force Sinai to be... shall we say "re-enforced". Either that or get the hell ready to bug out...

Freedom for Egypt: Not happening.

It's not happening.

Here's Barry Rubin's take on the naked power-grab by al-Ikhwan (The Muslim Brotherhood) as of early yesterday: Egypt: There goes....

He's got it right.

This is a coup. Mursi is bound by no constitution. He can do as he pleases unless someone is going to stop him. And the only candidate–the military–is fading fast, far faster than even we pessimists would have predicted.

If President Mursi gets away with these moves, say goodbye to the last hope of Egypt being anything but a conquest for al-Ikhwan.

Told you so (diplomatic appointments edition)

Long time readers of CompHyp may vaguely recall that this author was to-say-the-least unimpressed with the appointment of J. Scott Gration as the American (Obama Administration) Special Envoy to Sudan.

Here's a little reminder from back in 2009 as to how deserved that lack of regard was: Gration gets the proper treatment.

Well, low and behold, the years go by... Gration got a 'promotion' to a regular ambassadorship (to Kenya)... and...

Close Obama ally rated worst ambassador in the State Department.

Read the whole thing, please.

Then for those reading who have any say in such matters... let's not be doing this again, shall we?

Here

...I am.

Yeah, usual story. Yeah, better now. Yeah, no clue what tomorrow holds.

Thanks for looking in here while postings were so light... again.

Now for some of that thread-posting.

Another good place to read

The Diplomad is back (and has been for a little while).

Here's a recent example of the fine work there.

Written by a been-there-done-that Foreign Service hand.

All you need to know about the earthquake recovery in Haiti

"Meanwhile, 390,000 people are still homeless. The U.S. promised to rebuild or replace thousands of destroyed homes, but so far has not built even one new permanent house. Auditors say land disputes, lack of USAID oversight and no clear plan have hampered the housing effort. USAID contested that critique."

The AP writing of: US pledge to rebuild Haiti not being met.

h/t Glenn Reynolds for the full version of the story. If you don't read Instapundit, you should.

That was unplanned...

... that being a two week and more absence from this 'blog.

Anyway, I'm around again now.

This is your Sunday Open Push as well. Open thread.

The usual rules apply, foremost of which being: Play Nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

U.S. Independence Day

I've always considered that one of the best things anyone can do in a civic-minded way each year on Independence Day is to re-read the Declaration of Independence... specifically the enumerated offenses by the Crown against the Colonies. That still holds true, but here's a little special something to think about for the 4th of July this year:

Attributed to Benjamin Franklin, 1787 ~ "A Republic, if you can keep it."

There's some keeping to be doing, fellows. Best get to it.

Ozawa splits the DPJ

The split is on. I. Ozawa leads 50 lawmakers to quit the Democrats.

He got 38 in the Lower House and 12 in the Upper to go with him. Says he's "considering" forming a new party. un huh. considering. sure thing.

He still needs 16 more defectors from the DPJ in the Lower House to bring down the government, but the jobs of obstructing the Consumption Tax hike in the Upper House and then preventing a supermajority in the Lower House to override the Upper just got a whole lot easier. Maybe even possible.

Politics. It's a nasty business at the best of times. That understood... let's go make some sausage.

We've got an economy to save.

Sunday Morning Push

And then... and then I was busy. The wrong kind of busy. Not sure it is going to be better tomorrow, either. Stay tuned.

What got missed last week:

. Martin got the handshake. Elizabeth II was in Northern Ireland for part of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations. That's got to be an Only-Nixon-could-go-to-China moment for the Provos... Hope his own partisans don't hold it against him.

.. John Roberts engaged in one of the great judicial manuevers in the history of the SCOTUS. He was right about one thing, at least: It is not the court's job to save the electorate from bad laws passed by their representatives.

... Syria, Yemen, and Mali are all still hot zones in the Arab Spring (a year later and looking nothing like it did) and the GWOT. No coincidence, that.

.... Egypt elected Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood (yeah, he had a different party name; same difference) as President. SCAF (the Army government) tried to set the table by dissolving Parliament and taking over the new Constitution-writing, but even if that man is just a figurehead... ho boy... he's going to be trouble.

..... and lots more.

OK, your turn. This is an Open topic thread.

The usual rules all apply; most importantly: Play Nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

About that Consumption Tax thing...

I've written here previously (various comments as well) about the Noda naikaku (cabinet; administration)'s remarkably ill-considered plans to raise the Consumption Tax (a.k.a. Sales Tax) from 5% to 10% over three years...

***Caution: baseball reference follows***

Well, here's the wind-up... (Mainichi News) (BBC)

...and the pitch.

It's a long fly ball... it's well hit... it looks like it is going... going...

But, before anyone signals a 'home run', I've got a couple of things to point out:

Yes, 363-96 in the Lower House is a crushing success for the ruling party. But they only got there by getting what's left of the Liberal Democratic Party (Jiyuu-minshutou; LDP) to join in support... so much for being the Opposition... and the minor LDP-allied welfare-loving New Komeito (Shin Koumeitou; NKP; the name is no longer related to its literal meaning) as well.

Voting against *their own party* was the Ozawa Faction (roughly 50 strong) of the Democrats (Minshutou; DPJ), where the always opportunist Ozawa Ichirou (I. Ozawa) saw a chance to get on the populist side of the vote. OK, he's still not one of the good guys... but he's on the side of right for his own reasons this time.

However... There are still three ways (at least) that this bill can die.

Big #1: Ozawa leads his faction out of the DPJ and forms a new party in Opposition. This, if 54 Representatives leave the DPJ, would put the Noda administration in a minority in the Lower House. That is an opportunity that not even the recently-pathetic LDP could resist. No-Confidence; Down comes the government; New elections called. Any bill pending dies with the session end.

#2: The vote was yesterday, local time. If this morning the sun comes up and every LDP Representative finds his e-mail and voice-mail queue filled with outraged calls from constituents, it would be shall-we-say more difficult for LDP Party HQ to order strict party compliance with the support agreement. Without that order, when the bill comes up in the Upper House (where the Democrats lack a majority) it might get sent back. Or the debates might be long, nasty and inconclusive. Sent back means the Lower House has to marshal a supermajority (2/3) to bulldoze the bill through. That, without a party order binding LDP Lower House Representatives (who face the next election fairly soon, snap or scheduled), is unlikely to get the same votes the bill did this time. No supermajority, the bill dies.

#3: Even if LDP Party HQ orders a line vote in favor... there just aren't that many LDP Reps left with totally secure seats. While #2 above is based on purely public outcry (also, read the big papers in the morning and see if the major media joins the outcry), the real support base for the remaining LDP strongholds is in the power of local supporting associations. Interest Groups. Business and Agriculture Interest Groups. How many of them are feeling "understanding" about this whole matter? How many of the leaders of such groups are thinking of making a few calls around in the morning... maybe to a Small-Government Low-Tax Party like "Your" Party (Minna no tou; Everyone's Party; once a LDP renegade effort, now a rising party in its own right)? Just one or two major supporting associations in a given electoral district signalling such displeasure would put the Fear of God, er fear of unemployment in the local Representative. Suicidal loyalty to one's party being quite the past thing here in Japan, some large number of Reps under such pressure can be expected to either miss the vote or go against the LDP leadership... losing one's party affiliation isn't career ending (cf. Suzuki Muneo, darn him)... losing one's supporting associations is.

So, yeah, it's bad. If I were to pick the one thing that would further depress consumption in the Japanese economy and feed the deflationary spiral, it would be just such a Consumption Tax increase as is moving through the Kokkai (Parliament) right now.

Whether that "long fly ball" is a home run for the Noda administration, or a long out caught at the wall, remains to be seen.

But the outfielder is going to have to climb the wall to bring this one back, I think.

Fausta on Lugo

H/T to CompHyp friend Fausta Wertz.

Lugo will be spending more time with his families.

Heh.

For those not following this, the administration of ex-President Lugo of Paraguay was one of the more distant of the ALBA-linked regimes in Latin America. Clipping his wings is another step in the roll-back of Chavista-inspired misgovernment across the continent.

I hope the people of Paraguay get a fairer hearing than Honduras got when M. Zelaya was taken down.

Syriaous Trouble

Readers here might well remember a discussion of Japan's need to replace its long-serving F-4EJ kai  Phantom II jet fighters, and how in comments it was pointed out that they lacked survivability against any reasonably modern surface-to-air-missile defenses...

Well, the Turks just got a lesson about just such a problem. Crew still unaccounted for. Ouch.

This is also further evidence, unfortunately, that the regime in Syria thinks they are going to get away with whatever they do in the course of prosecuting their little Civil War, er, irregular revolutionary uprising.

Somehow, I suspect the Turks will have something to say about that...

****

Important note for those concerned about how this fits in with the obligations under the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO) to support member-state Turkey. The short form is: the Middle East south of Turkey is out-of-region, so any Article 5 claim by Turkey would be based on Syrian attacks into Turkey... which haven't clearly happened yet. But, if I recall correctly, Article 4 calls for mutual assistance and that may well be coming Turkey's way upon request, and lots of it.

Update: And then the Title can be entered.

OK, the compose window works now...

...but you may notice a lack of a Title...

...because that still doesn't work. I can click on the "Post title" entry, but I can't enter anything.

Let's see if it will post.

***

Update:

It does! That means: ((quick edit later)) AH HAH! I can edit the title in an existing posting. We have a work-around until Blogger gets a clue.

Update 2: as of Sunday, 24.June, things are working as designed again. Hurrah!

Eventually

A dear friend, speaking to me a little over a year ago about the matter that has caused my many recent distractions, reminded me of the surgeon's wisecrack about bad things:

"All bleeding eventually stops."

Well, I'm not sure the problem this time has stopped, but it is out of my face for a while. Let's see if I can't do some good here while I've the chance.

Usual thread posting resumes Monday, 18.June.

Thanks for waiting, All.

***

Update Monday: Due to some mysterious new bug in Blogger, I can't create any new Topic Tread postings.

Update 2 Tuesday: Problem persists. Damn it.

Update 3 Wednesday: Problem persists. It isn't anything here (no changes to my set-up since posting this thread successfully on the 17th). Feedback to Google Blogger sent. Sending again.

Update 4 Thursday: Problem persists. No feedback from Blogger yet. ***See the comments on this thread for ongoing discussions, please.***

Sunday Open Push

Same Story, Different Day. Just Worse.

Hope you All are well out there.

Here's an Open thread just to keep things available here. yadayada Rules; yadayada Play Nice.

Be back when I can be.