How does the credit card company advertisement go...?
Sub-Saharan Mercenaries: a few hundred dollars a day, tops.
Russian-built multiple rocket launchers: a couple hundred thousand a pop.
A Nicaraguan career-misanthrope and fixture of the international blame-America set as your new U.N. envoy: priceless.
priceless = comedy gold in this case.
Way to go on the "buy some respect" move there, Moammar.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Freedom for Libya: Back and Forth
The fight remains well and truly on, and the loyalist fighting force gets the best of it anytime they aren't in the Intervention Coalition's bombsights.
That means, for the east and midcoastal region, the battles are following fairly closely one of the axiomatic courses of North African warfare: it looks about like a soccer (football) match between two loosely coached teams, with guns... lots of rushes half-a-field-length followed by desperate retreats to protect one's own "goal net", that being in this case one's base of supply. Like said sport, the only way to reliably secure victory is to tighten up he coaching discipline and make well-ordered moves of position and control to advance into the hostile zone. For now, it is pretty clear that only one side has the potential of doing that... and sadly, it's not the squad I'm cheering for.
In the regions closer to Tripoli, and out west, it has been almost too easy for the Loyalists... with one exception: Misrata. The rebels are still besieged mightily and at great distress, but they are at least contesting control of the central part of the city. For how much longer, I simply have no way to judge.
The political machinations continue, with some key defections from the regime and some public meetings designed to make it look like the Intervention is a united effort. There has even been talk of setting aside the arms embargo in part to allow weapons and direct support to the rebel forces. There is also a "yes we are / no we aren't" game being played by some Western politicians as to whether covert assets are in the field... cute of them to be playing politics with the lives of 'disposable people', isn't it?
This won't all be resolved until either (a) regime loyalists decide to stop being loyalists... and put daggers in the backs of the whole Qaddafi family, or; (b) one or more of the nations in the Intervention Forces decide to toss diplomatic niceties in the trash and goes all-in to win this thing for the Rebellion, or; (c)... actually, there is no (c). Letting Qaddafi and kin survive, either in power or in comfortable exile, is simply an invitation for unending trouble.
So hang on to your hats, folks. This is going to be a rough ride.
***
BBC World's daily live coverage can be found *here*, but be aware it is not operated 24 hours a day, nor is it continuous. They archive it at the end of each day.
That means, for the east and midcoastal region, the battles are following fairly closely one of the axiomatic courses of North African warfare: it looks about like a soccer (football) match between two loosely coached teams, with guns... lots of rushes half-a-field-length followed by desperate retreats to protect one's own "goal net", that being in this case one's base of supply. Like said sport, the only way to reliably secure victory is to tighten up he coaching discipline and make well-ordered moves of position and control to advance into the hostile zone. For now, it is pretty clear that only one side has the potential of doing that... and sadly, it's not the squad I'm cheering for.
In the regions closer to Tripoli, and out west, it has been almost too easy for the Loyalists... with one exception: Misrata. The rebels are still besieged mightily and at great distress, but they are at least contesting control of the central part of the city. For how much longer, I simply have no way to judge.
The political machinations continue, with some key defections from the regime and some public meetings designed to make it look like the Intervention is a united effort. There has even been talk of setting aside the arms embargo in part to allow weapons and direct support to the rebel forces. There is also a "yes we are / no we aren't" game being played by some Western politicians as to whether covert assets are in the field... cute of them to be playing politics with the lives of 'disposable people', isn't it?
This won't all be resolved until either (a) regime loyalists decide to stop being loyalists... and put daggers in the backs of the whole Qaddafi family, or; (b) one or more of the nations in the Intervention Forces decide to toss diplomatic niceties in the trash and goes all-in to win this thing for the Rebellion, or; (c)... actually, there is no (c). Letting Qaddafi and kin survive, either in power or in comfortable exile, is simply an invitation for unending trouble.
So hang on to your hats, folks. This is going to be a rough ride.
***
BBC World's daily live coverage can be found *here*, but be aware it is not operated 24 hours a day, nor is it continuous. They archive it at the end of each day.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Yes and No
Yes, this is good. Sure would be better if some progress toward getting Gbagbo out was happening on the ground, though.
No, this isn't good. Neither is the ongoing "teachers strike" which is about a whole lot more than education.
No, this isn't good. Neither is the ongoing "teachers strike" which is about a whole lot more than education.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Just to be clear about R2P
I've written here before about Responsibility to Protect (R2P), the United Nations policy formalized in 2006 that justifies "humanitarian intervention" if the government of a people is in fact a physical danger to those same people.
If you recall, you might note I've written in favor of the policy. I've been rather associated with the academic side of the debate that was the basis upon which the policy was built, although mostly as a spectator, and that gives one a bit of insight into how it is intended.
That said...
...it seems to be popular to talk about R2P these days in political forums. The Libya Intervention being what it is, it calls a lot of attention to R2P. The upshot of those commentaries seems to be either a contempt for the hypocrisy of how R2P has been applied to date or a manifest fear of R2P being some One-Worlder plot that will eventually be unleashed upon the nations of the Western World.
It has been applied poorly, yes. Consider the agencies (often elements of the U.N.) usually responsible for that application and that should come as no surprise.
But you can throw out the conspiracy theory. There is a far simpler and thus far less politic explanation for R2P. It is an updated form of 19th Century Enlightened Imperialism. It has all the hallmarks of the justification used to stop the Slave Trade, to overthrow despotic rulers, and then to bring some element of Human Rights (like trying to stop Foot Binding in China or forcible Sati (Sutte) in India) or of Education (Imperial German colonial schools in East Africa were unequalled for quality even by modern day standards) or Justice (the implantation of legal systems, Common or Civil, throughout much of Africa, South and East Asia where justice had often been tribal or by diktat of the autocrat).
It has the potential to right wrongs. It has the potential to save lives.
It also has the same potential for abuse that Imperialism had.
Like Aristocracy, Imperialism *may* be a beneficial system. Also like being an Aristocrat, Imperialism is a lot more desirable if one gets to be one of the Great Powers.
R2P is no more, and no less, inherently justifiable that any other form of outside control. It is simply the counter-argument against unlimited sovereign rights being the nature of all recognized States, no matter who (or what party) runs them.
But know it for what it is: the presumption that (we) enlightened people have a justifiable reason for lording over (you) un-enlightened people to prevent (what we consider) barbarous conduct... but one that (we) will exercise at our discretion and convenience, indeed to our benefit or at least to as little material loss as (we) see fit.
That's a presumption that requires ethically perfect conduct by the (we) mentioned.
Something to think about, that.
If you recall, you might note I've written in favor of the policy. I've been rather associated with the academic side of the debate that was the basis upon which the policy was built, although mostly as a spectator, and that gives one a bit of insight into how it is intended.
That said...
...it seems to be popular to talk about R2P these days in political forums. The Libya Intervention being what it is, it calls a lot of attention to R2P. The upshot of those commentaries seems to be either a contempt for the hypocrisy of how R2P has been applied to date or a manifest fear of R2P being some One-Worlder plot that will eventually be unleashed upon the nations of the Western World.
It has been applied poorly, yes. Consider the agencies (often elements of the U.N.) usually responsible for that application and that should come as no surprise.
But you can throw out the conspiracy theory. There is a far simpler and thus far less politic explanation for R2P. It is an updated form of 19th Century Enlightened Imperialism. It has all the hallmarks of the justification used to stop the Slave Trade, to overthrow despotic rulers, and then to bring some element of Human Rights (like trying to stop Foot Binding in China or forcible Sati (Sutte) in India) or of Education (Imperial German colonial schools in East Africa were unequalled for quality even by modern day standards) or Justice (the implantation of legal systems, Common or Civil, throughout much of Africa, South and East Asia where justice had often been tribal or by diktat of the autocrat).
It has the potential to right wrongs. It has the potential to save lives.
It also has the same potential for abuse that Imperialism had.
Like Aristocracy, Imperialism *may* be a beneficial system. Also like being an Aristocrat, Imperialism is a lot more desirable if one gets to be one of the Great Powers.
R2P is no more, and no less, inherently justifiable that any other form of outside control. It is simply the counter-argument against unlimited sovereign rights being the nature of all recognized States, no matter who (or what party) runs them.
But know it for what it is: the presumption that (we) enlightened people have a justifiable reason for lording over (you) un-enlightened people to prevent (what we consider) barbarous conduct... but one that (we) will exercise at our discretion and convenience, indeed to our benefit or at least to as little material loss as (we) see fit.
That's a presumption that requires ethically perfect conduct by the (we) mentioned.
Something to think about, that.
Next of the PIIGS to go
...will likely be Portugal.
Expect the austerity package to fail in Parliament. Expect the administration of Prime Minister Jose Socrates to resign when that happens.
It may be great political theater, but it's not much use toward combating the financial crisis.
Expect the austerity package to fail in Parliament. Expect the administration of Prime Minister Jose Socrates to resign when that happens.
It may be great political theater, but it's not much use toward combating the financial crisis.
Freedom for ... a lot of places.
You are probably watching / reading about the Libya Intervention, and you've likely got the sense that all these Tunisia-Egypt-(a lot of places) Uprisings might just be connected... you'd be right, with the exception of Bahrain which appears to be as much external destabilization as a genuine rising.
Here are two more places to watch, one old news and one very very new on the scene:
Yemen: The uprising there has been fueled as much by the new mood as by the old issues of the North-South divide. The tide is running solidly against the regime now, with even ranking military officers (and co-tribalists of President Saleh) going over to the insurrection. Saleh himself seems to be just trying to get favorable terms under which to leave... another good student of the great Arab Nationalists, he. No need to stick around for the lamppost party after the change in management comes...
Syria: The threat to the Assad regime started slowly this time, and was met with the usual crackdowns and arrests, but... it is still growing. More telling, neither of the traditional opponent groups to the regime are in the picture. The splits are tribal, sectarian, and pragmatic now. (Driving Syria's Druze community into opposition was a particularly clumsy move by the regime.) If that means a significant portion of the State Security apparatus is now at risk of falling in with the rising, then there is a chance that al-Hurra (Arabic: the condition of being free; specifically the opposite of enslaved) may come to Syria.
If only...
May this wind continue to blow, and that even far Iran feels it.
***
Web Sources Reminder:
Besides the major and local media, which may be beyond your ability to judge for veracity (or to read!), here are a couple analysts and a source for in-region media reports that I recommend without reservation:
Your best source for analysis and understanding of matters Yemeni: Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation.
A very good and informed source for the same on Iran and Middle Eastern matters, although of a well-intended bias (that I agree with): Michael Ledeen at Faster, Please! on Pajamas Media.
Original Source Material can also be found in great abundance and translated reliably at MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute. (link is to their 'blog. Homepage has original source video and more.)
Here are two more places to watch, one old news and one very very new on the scene:
Yemen: The uprising there has been fueled as much by the new mood as by the old issues of the North-South divide. The tide is running solidly against the regime now, with even ranking military officers (and co-tribalists of President Saleh) going over to the insurrection. Saleh himself seems to be just trying to get favorable terms under which to leave... another good student of the great Arab Nationalists, he. No need to stick around for the lamppost party after the change in management comes...
Syria: The threat to the Assad regime started slowly this time, and was met with the usual crackdowns and arrests, but... it is still growing. More telling, neither of the traditional opponent groups to the regime are in the picture. The splits are tribal, sectarian, and pragmatic now. (Driving Syria's Druze community into opposition was a particularly clumsy move by the regime.) If that means a significant portion of the State Security apparatus is now at risk of falling in with the rising, then there is a chance that al-Hurra (Arabic: the condition of being free; specifically the opposite of enslaved) may come to Syria.
If only...
May this wind continue to blow, and that even far Iran feels it.
***
Web Sources Reminder:
Besides the major and local media, which may be beyond your ability to judge for veracity (or to read!), here are a couple analysts and a source for in-region media reports that I recommend without reservation:
Your best source for analysis and understanding of matters Yemeni: Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation.
A very good and informed source for the same on Iran and Middle Eastern matters, although of a well-intended bias (that I agree with): Michael Ledeen at Faster, Please! on Pajamas Media.
Original Source Material can also be found in great abundance and translated reliably at MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute. (link is to their 'blog. Homepage has original source video and more.)
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Japan Earthquake: a few side notes
Just a few side notes for you on the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami story.
Where we were:
Violating the ancient rule about making the reporter the story...
((grin))
Here's a nice write-up about CompHyp friend and FOXNews correspondent Adam Housley and his trip to Japan to cover the story.
Where we are:
You can easily find stories of the recovery efforts underway, the terrible problems with mortuary overload, hospitals running out of materials, and the continued suffering of the survivors and evacuees.
You'll also easily find reports of the efforts to restore stability at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station... and yes, things are getting better.
If you look in the right places, you'll also find more reports on relief efforts and assistance being provided by US Forces Japan, but you might be a little surprised to find that the permanently-ported-in-Japan aircraft carrier USS George Washington hasn't played a role. There's a back story there and it's not exactly flattering...
But others are arriving to help. Just like last year in Haiti, the Israelis are in. Here's hoping they get some nice write-ups in the local media; too often they serve thanklessly in these sort of responses.
So keep up the good work, folks, and we'll get through this.
Where we were:
Violating the ancient rule about making the reporter the story...
((grin))
Here's a nice write-up about CompHyp friend and FOXNews correspondent Adam Housley and his trip to Japan to cover the story.
Where we are:
You can easily find stories of the recovery efforts underway, the terrible problems with mortuary overload, hospitals running out of materials, and the continued suffering of the survivors and evacuees.
You'll also easily find reports of the efforts to restore stability at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station... and yes, things are getting better.
If you look in the right places, you'll also find more reports on relief efforts and assistance being provided by US Forces Japan, but you might be a little surprised to find that the permanently-ported-in-Japan aircraft carrier USS George Washington hasn't played a role. There's a back story there and it's not exactly flattering...
But others are arriving to help. Just like last year in Haiti, the Israelis are in. Here's hoping they get some nice write-ups in the local media; too often they serve thanklessly in these sort of responses.
So keep up the good work, folks, and we'll get through this.
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