Freedom for Iran: Back into the streets

This last week has seen continuing protests in Yemen and Egypt (even after Mubarak was shown the door by the Army), and new outbreaks in Algeria and a few other places as well... there were even some hopes for a rising in Libya, but not much chance of that, really...

...but the big show, the one that matters because it just *might* work, is in Iran.

Today, the people tried again. Not the biggest protests, by far, but the people are back in the streets.

A live stream from Tehran Bureau (WGBH of PBS) is available here. The first hours looked to be less than promising, but...

Iran Standard Time (IRST), GMT+3:30

4:40 p.m. Al Arabiya is also reporting that Mousavi and Rahnavard have joined the protesters.

Now things get interesting, again.

The list of cities where protests are being held is impressively long, by the way. (scroll down to the first post on the live thread to see it) What that may mean is that the one thing missing from the last major push by the 'Green Movement', an effective spread of the protests outside Tehran to create a nation-wide sense of opposition, may be happening.

Here's hoping so.

Sunday Evening Push

OK... who put Monday directly after Wednesday last week...?

((grin))

It has been one of those weekends that looks a whole lot like the work week here. Hope yours went better.

Here's your Open thread for Sunday, just in case you've something to say about it. ...Or about all the other things happening out there in the wide world.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

Here are some brief links of things passed over the last couple of days:

Switzerland continues to show remarkable good sense on matters of a free people maintaining arms.

A series of rounds of hostage releases in Colombia has freed four of the many, many hostages of the FARC. I'd like to say it is the beginning of freedom for all the kidnapped... but it likely is not. A one-off or just a step forward.

Meanwhile, fan favorite Hugo Chavez continues to make a mockery of himself. Just for reference sake... Chavez couldn't carry Hosni Mubarak's briefcase. Sure would be nice if the people of Venezuela were a little more motivated to show him the door after seeing how things went in Egypt, though.

Ayman Nour of Egypt's al-Glad (Tomorrow Party) should have more sense than to be saying things like this, especially in the media. Unless, of course, he is proposing returning Sinai to Israel... (Boy, that wouldn't make it a minute in the court of public opinion, but again, it sure would be nice.)

Freedom for Egypt: The first step on a long road

In liberty-seeking civil uprisings, 'hated dictator' is the focus of demonstrators' anger. Whether he is really hated, or not; His presence is the symbol of the enduring old order.

In this case, that symbol is now gone.

Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down as president of Egypt.

In an announcement on state TV, Vice-President Omar Suleiman said Mr Mubarak had handed power to the military.

...

Mr Suleiman said Mr Mubarak had handed power to the high command of the armed forces.

"In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country," he said.

"May God help everybody."

Mr Mubarak has already left Cairo and is in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh where he has a residence, officials say.

Note: For the people of Egypt, the youth in the streets and the long-suffering advocates of democracy, this is just the first step on a long road; one that may branch with some choices a dead end... but... at least one path leads to real freedom.

Now the real work to reach that goal begins in earnest.

"May God help everybody", indeed.

until Friday (Update2: Freedom for Egypt)

Obligations elsewhere have once again grabbed my available time. Should clear up by tomorrow, though.

See you all here, on Friday.

'till then, be well and safe.

LDG

***

Update:

OK, this hit the media, so here you are:

It is day 17 of the protests and Mubarak may be going out:

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak is to make an address on national television, amid suggestions that he is preparing to step down.

How the Army and the administrative parts of the regime deal with this is the gamble for all the marbles, folks. They need to meet the protester's demands at least in principle, but not hand the keys to al-Ikhwan (the MB) *any* one group. Transition, real and practical transition that leads to a real chance at democracy, is what will be needed.

Here's hoping Egypt gets it.

***

(and then Will in Comments fields this while I'm typing... oh, with a different link but same message.)

Update 2: No deal. It is only a partial devolution.

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has said he will stay in office and transfer all power only after September's presidential election.

His comments in a national TV address confounded earlier reports that he was preparing to stand down immediately.

Mr Mubarak said he would delegate some powers to Vice-President Omar Suleiman, but the details of this remain unclear.

Freedom for Egypt: Protests regaining strength

That's not the line a number of major media sources have trotted out the last couple of days. Those reports said the protests were petering out (and even NPR subscribed to such thinking in part this morning), but then much of the media has shown a remarkable willingness to repeat what they are told by vested interests...

Here's how things are going, today:

CAIRO, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The protest movement demanding the downfall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak showed no signs of flagging on Tuesday, filling Tahrir Square in central Cairo in defiance of the government for the 12th straight day.

More first-time protesters came out, saying they had seen through what they called lies by the state media, and hundreds were streaming in after work to join the crowds.

This matters a lot. Flash-in-the-pan uprisings don't change the system. (although if violent enough, they can destroy it. *Not* the case, here.) Persistent, motivated, and organized... that's what is needed. A suitable crucible by which a mass movement finds its own leaders and promotes them with sufficient strength to bargain effectively with the regime.

***

Also, in the commentary (at Commentary, appropriately enough), Max Boot continues to develop the "let's try" side of the argument :

At this point, the safest option may well be to make a clean break with Mubarak, inaugurate a transition government, lift the state of emergency, and allow the full blooming of democratic politics. Most analysts knowledgeable about Egyptian politics believe that, under those conditions, the Brotherhood will emerge as a minority party; it has flourished only in an atmosphere of repression because the mosque has been the one part of Egyptian society not fully controlled by the state.

It will be a challenge, but I'd call that a good goal.

Northern Territories Day

February 7th is Northern Territories Day in Japan.

This is the annual reaffirmation that Japan holds dear its sovereign rights over the islands of the Northern Territories that, contrary to existing recognition even at the time, were occupied by the then-Soviet Army *after* the August 15th 1945 Japanese statement of surrender... and never returned.

Every year, rallies are held; one in Toukyou (Tokyo) which was keynoted by Kan souri daijin (Prime Minister N. Kan) and the other on Hokkaidou from whose easternmost tip the ill-taken islands can be plainly seen.

Japan has designated Feb. 7 as "Northern Territories Day," saying that a treaty dating back to that day in 1855 supports its claim to the islands.

Kan was the top speaker at a government-backed rally of about 1,500 people in Tokyo that has been held annually since 1981 to mark the anniversary. He vowed that Japan will not back down from its claim and said visits there by Russian leaders are "an unforgivable outrage."

The Russian government has recently made the comment that "(Russia) is tired of discussing the issue".

Very well... if that's how they want to play it... every, *EVERY* single negotiation between Japan and Russia, every fisheries agreement, every request by the Russians for Japanese investment, hell, every matter that could possibly be discussed should be placed on hiatus with a simple note:

(Japan) is tired of discussing the issue as well. There will be no further discussions *on any matter* until the Northern Territories are returned to Japan.

After that, then we talk Peace Treaty.

After THAT, then we talk trade and investment.

Any effort to talk around the ban, to find Parliamentary channels or to involve business interests, should be ruthlessly ferreted out and made public. If such attempts violate Japanese law, arrests should be made.

I'd even argue for a suspension of existing trade, but a couple of matters are likely out of reach unless an embargo were to be passed: The 'multinational company' cover that the Sakhalin oil and gas project operates under is probably strong enough that business interests in the Japanese trading companies with minority shares in the project could claim to be unfairly penalized were their delivery contracts to be threatened; The Russian business interests in Vladivostok are almost entirely dependent upon the import trade from Japan, mostly of used vehicles. Again, closing that door likely harms friends and does nothing to motivate Moscow (the Putin clique has a history of hating the Vladivostok interests and the feeling seems to be mutual).

But the "we are tired" argument should be a clarion call on this matter. Letting the Russians get away with saying it, much less tolerating their occupation of the islands, is unacceptable. Period.

Freedom for Egypt: The Way Forward

Linked here with no further comments other than my agreement and offer to help where I can:

A review and analysis by Richard Fernandez of Sandmonkey's The Way Forward posting. R. Fernandez, for those of you who don't know of him, brings with him the experience of the Philippines rising that brought down Marcos.