Here is your open thread for the next 7 days.
That which is not a thread topic, goes here. Also, any topic you want to bring back from the dead or any suggestions for a new topic, goes here.
caveat: the usual rules apply.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Call me if it gets *really* bad.
The morning newspapers here (reminder: here = Japan) were all talking "Panic" from the 9.38% one-day drop in the Nikkei 225 stock market average.
What they should have said was "Panic led to..." said drop. The panic, mostly shared fears carried over from markets in Europe and the Americas, led to the sell-off.
See this web log's previous entry about Ovines about now re:panics.
Let us put this straight: no one likes losing 1/11th of the market's valuation in a day, and it just seems fitting that such a result should come a year to the day after the NYSE Dow Industrials hit their all-time high, but we've seen worse here.
The Nikkei all-time high was December 29, 1989: intra-day high of 38,957.44; closing at 38,915.87
The Nikkei hit bottom after the bubble economy collapsed at 7603.76 in April 2003.
Here's a graphic on that.
For comparison, *here* is the Dow Industrials' history. Please look at the period from 1970 to present to compare.
Again, no one should be saying that the market troubles, especially the credit market troubles, across the world are small. But saying these troubles are worse than they are only gives power to the practitioners of Demagogy that wish to rule over you.
What they should have said was "Panic led to..." said drop. The panic, mostly shared fears carried over from markets in Europe and the Americas, led to the sell-off.
See this web log's previous entry about Ovines about now re:panics.
Let us put this straight: no one likes losing 1/11th of the market's valuation in a day, and it just seems fitting that such a result should come a year to the day after the NYSE Dow Industrials hit their all-time high, but we've seen worse here.
The Nikkei all-time high was December 29, 1989: intra-day high of 38,957.44; closing at 38,915.87
The Nikkei hit bottom after the bubble economy collapsed at 7603.76 in April 2003.
Here's a graphic on that.
For comparison, *here* is the Dow Industrials' history. Please look at the period from 1970 to present to compare.
Again, no one should be saying that the market troubles, especially the credit market troubles, across the world are small. But saying these troubles are worse than they are only gives power to the practitioners of Demagogy that wish to rule over you.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
An ounce of prevention
It is not the intervention in Afghanistan that tests the validity of the NATO alliance, nor is it any future obligation to the Republic of Georgia or Ukraine.
The test is: Will NATO defend the members it has?
Allies, neighbors, potential foes... they all watch, and judge.
The test is: Will NATO defend the members it has?
Allies, neighbors, potential foes... they all watch, and judge.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Still about 700 more to rescue.
Once the epic tale of rescuing Íngrid Betancourt and 14 others ran its course in the news cycle, there hasn't been much reported on the other 700+ hostages still in the hands of the FARC.
The Colombian Army is still out trying, and once in while there is a success.
Let's not allow this to disappear in amongst the distractions of the daily news.
The Colombian Army is still out trying, and once in while there is a success.
Let's not allow this to disappear in amongst the distractions of the daily news.
Try sending someone cuter.
In one of those rare moments of good sense to come out of the Gaimushou (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, of Japan), it seems that they are *still* rejecting the application for Diplomatic Status of a pending appointee to the job of "overseeing cultural activities" at the Russian Embassy.
Gee, even Wikipedia knows what that means.
Next time, try sending someone cuter. I understand our diplomats are big fans of Maria Sharapova, if you need a role-model.
Gee, even Wikipedia knows what that means.
Next time, try sending someone cuter. I understand our diplomats are big fans of Maria Sharapova, if you need a role-model.
Monday, October 6, 2008
The Weekly N&C for October 6th, 2008
It didn’t end in 1994, and it is not over yet.
If one were to start a discussion with the topics of “Hutu’s” and “Tutsi’s”, one might have a decent chance of having the movie “Hotel Rwanda” come up. That movie details one experience within the multitude that was the Rwandan Genocide, the ~100 days of slaughter by government-organized elements of the Hutu majority tribals against the Tutsi minority tribals in Rwanda that killed somewhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Tutsi and only ended with the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front rebellion (a movement underway prior to the Genocide) fighting its way into control of the country. As many as 2,000,000 Hutu then fled Rwanda to adjacent lands to avoid arrest or reprisals, most going to then-called-Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo). The Hutu militias that were the prime perpetrators of the Genocide fled with and amongst them, in the main organizationally intact. In fact, they were likely allowed to go by a combination of U.S. and U.K. willful inaction and an act of overt French intervention.
But the Rwandan Genocide is also famously “resolved” by the establishment of and successful ongoing prosecutions by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR).
The aftershocks of the Genocide destabilized the entire region, leading to a host of conflicts most famously including the First and Second Congo Wars. Now Congo is vastly larger, and more tribally complex than the simple Tutsi vs. Hutu conflict, but it is a measure of the intensity of that battle that it could sweep aside all else to become the driving force of two more major wars. The First (1996~1997) brought down Mobutu’s Zaire and was immediately followed in 1998 by the Second… which is perhaps better known as “Africa’s World War”. Eight countries battled for 4 years and left in excess of 3,500,000 dead (some citations reach over 5,000,000). In the course of the war, it often seemed that looting and controlling resource areas were more important than any larger goal. Think of it as Kleptocracy applied to war, and keep that in mind for later, here. Officially this war ended in December, 2002, with the Transitional Government being established in July of 2003. That is what the treaties say, at least. Hutu-aligned and Tutsi-aligned forces and a host of other locals and troublemakers still are at it, and are showing no sign of letting up.
Oh, there is one more relic of the Second Congo War still around besides those aligned forces: MONUC (site in English). This Peacekeeping Authority was authorized in February, 2000, by UNSC Resolution 1291, and has grown in scope, priorities, and expense ever since. As of now, MONUC is the largest and most expensive U.N. Peacekeeping authorization *in the world*. If you would prefer an overview of the history of MONUC, it can be found *here*. MONUC has recently been heavily involved in matters in Ituri province, and has a host of other responsibilities, but from here let us focus on their role in the Kivu Provinces, because that is where matters of Tutsi vs. Hutu are at their worst.
The two provinces of D.R. Congo facing Lake Kivu are Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu and unless one is particularly interested in the Rift Valley Great Lakes region of Africa, the only association that might come to mind is that there is a famous World Heritage site of Virunga National Park (the Colonial-times Albert National Park, est. 1925) that is the home of the Mountain Gorillas. Sadly, our focus here is on a different homonym: guerillas.
The not-formally-recognized-as-a-real-war Kivu Conflict is in full swing again, with an array of combatants and causes but once again an alignment of forces backing Tutsi or Hutu elements. The Tutsi are native to the area, and the bulk of the Hutu are… yes, escapees from Rwandan justice (or some say, revenge).
The array of factions through the region is astoundingly broad, as even a brief look at this resource from Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre offers (note the extended list includes forces in adjacent conflicts to Kivu). Three major forces in play are: the Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) which is the national army of record in the D.R. Congo; what was known (see below) as the Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple (CNDP), the primarily-Tutsi rebellion led by Laurent Nkunda; and MONUC. As the detailed list shows, there are handfuls of factional players and tribal forces aligned with both the FARDC and the former-CNDP, including the FARDC-allied Forces Démocratiques de la Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), the army of the Hutu militias of the Rwandan Genocide. Force sizes by these two groups are in the thousands, and both possess arms and troop formations from the previous incarnation of the national army.
Laurent Nkunda, the founder of the former-CNDP in 2006, is a war-hardened veteran of the Congo Wars (both) as a part of the Rally for Congolese Democracy-Goma (1998~2006) and before that, as a member of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (1992~1998), the Rwandan rebel movement that rescued the nation from the Genocide… which ties us all the way back to our beginning here. Regrettably, it seems that ‘General Nkunda’ is also not what anyone would call a good guy, and he has ended up listed on the UNSC wanted/banned list under Resolution 1596. In the interest comparison, however, *here* is a link to the former-CNDP organization web site. As of this week, the former-CNDP has been renamed (in English) as the Movement for the Total Liberation of Congo, although there is some debate as to what this could mean about a wider war to come, because…
The former-CNDP is saying that they are about to be attacked broadly by the FARDC, and there is active intervention by MONUC *on the side of the FARDC*. The FARDC is calling in re-enforcements and given their competence on the battlefield and the loyalty of their leaders, they need all the troops and arms they can get.
MONUC is calling for more “peacekeepers” including co-opting the language of “a surge” which is all rather beyond any mandate they may have, but may in fact be the correct thing to do considering the spreading humanitarian costs of the conflict. Things are getting so bad that Medicins Sans Frontieres is saying they are “losing” North Kivu.
It is all coming to a head, and it will be in the news again the next time MONUC attack helicopters fire on rebel formations…
But one might have missed *this* in all the posturing and maneuvering. Read it carefully, and notice that it is not only Tin Ore exports being banned. There on the list is Columbite-Tantalite as well.
Then remember the assertion made above about “…as Kleptocracy applied to war…”, and watch who is backing which faction to win and look at who will be controlling the resources.
Then pray for the people of the Kivu’s, for they are once again being trampled underfoot.
***
End Notes:
Most notes are embedded as links in the text.
Here is the U.N. Peacekeeping (worldwide) home page:
Here is an analysis by South Scan Ltd. on the quality of the FARDC.
If one were to start a discussion with the topics of “Hutu’s” and “Tutsi’s”, one might have a decent chance of having the movie “Hotel Rwanda” come up. That movie details one experience within the multitude that was the Rwandan Genocide, the ~100 days of slaughter by government-organized elements of the Hutu majority tribals against the Tutsi minority tribals in Rwanda that killed somewhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Tutsi and only ended with the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front rebellion (a movement underway prior to the Genocide) fighting its way into control of the country. As many as 2,000,000 Hutu then fled Rwanda to adjacent lands to avoid arrest or reprisals, most going to then-called-Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo). The Hutu militias that were the prime perpetrators of the Genocide fled with and amongst them, in the main organizationally intact. In fact, they were likely allowed to go by a combination of U.S. and U.K. willful inaction and an act of overt French intervention.
But the Rwandan Genocide is also famously “resolved” by the establishment of and successful ongoing prosecutions by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR).
The aftershocks of the Genocide destabilized the entire region, leading to a host of conflicts most famously including the First and Second Congo Wars. Now Congo is vastly larger, and more tribally complex than the simple Tutsi vs. Hutu conflict, but it is a measure of the intensity of that battle that it could sweep aside all else to become the driving force of two more major wars. The First (1996~1997) brought down Mobutu’s Zaire and was immediately followed in 1998 by the Second… which is perhaps better known as “Africa’s World War”. Eight countries battled for 4 years and left in excess of 3,500,000 dead (some citations reach over 5,000,000). In the course of the war, it often seemed that looting and controlling resource areas were more important than any larger goal. Think of it as Kleptocracy applied to war, and keep that in mind for later, here. Officially this war ended in December, 2002, with the Transitional Government being established in July of 2003. That is what the treaties say, at least. Hutu-aligned and Tutsi-aligned forces and a host of other locals and troublemakers still are at it, and are showing no sign of letting up.
Oh, there is one more relic of the Second Congo War still around besides those aligned forces: MONUC (site in English). This Peacekeeping Authority was authorized in February, 2000, by UNSC Resolution 1291, and has grown in scope, priorities, and expense ever since. As of now, MONUC is the largest and most expensive U.N. Peacekeeping authorization *in the world*. If you would prefer an overview of the history of MONUC, it can be found *here*. MONUC has recently been heavily involved in matters in Ituri province, and has a host of other responsibilities, but from here let us focus on their role in the Kivu Provinces, because that is where matters of Tutsi vs. Hutu are at their worst.
The two provinces of D.R. Congo facing Lake Kivu are Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu and unless one is particularly interested in the Rift Valley Great Lakes region of Africa, the only association that might come to mind is that there is a famous World Heritage site of Virunga National Park (the Colonial-times Albert National Park, est. 1925) that is the home of the Mountain Gorillas. Sadly, our focus here is on a different homonym: guerillas.
The not-formally-recognized-as-a-real-war Kivu Conflict is in full swing again, with an array of combatants and causes but once again an alignment of forces backing Tutsi or Hutu elements. The Tutsi are native to the area, and the bulk of the Hutu are… yes, escapees from Rwandan justice (or some say, revenge).
The array of factions through the region is astoundingly broad, as even a brief look at this resource from Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre offers (note the extended list includes forces in adjacent conflicts to Kivu). Three major forces in play are: the Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) which is the national army of record in the D.R. Congo; what was known (see below) as the Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple (CNDP), the primarily-Tutsi rebellion led by Laurent Nkunda; and MONUC. As the detailed list shows, there are handfuls of factional players and tribal forces aligned with both the FARDC and the former-CNDP, including the FARDC-allied Forces Démocratiques de la Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), the army of the Hutu militias of the Rwandan Genocide. Force sizes by these two groups are in the thousands, and both possess arms and troop formations from the previous incarnation of the national army.
Laurent Nkunda, the founder of the former-CNDP in 2006, is a war-hardened veteran of the Congo Wars (both) as a part of the Rally for Congolese Democracy-Goma (1998~2006) and before that, as a member of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (1992~1998), the Rwandan rebel movement that rescued the nation from the Genocide… which ties us all the way back to our beginning here. Regrettably, it seems that ‘General Nkunda’ is also not what anyone would call a good guy, and he has ended up listed on the UNSC wanted/banned list under Resolution 1596. In the interest comparison, however, *here* is a link to the former-CNDP organization web site. As of this week, the former-CNDP has been renamed (in English) as the Movement for the Total Liberation of Congo, although there is some debate as to what this could mean about a wider war to come, because…
The former-CNDP is saying that they are about to be attacked broadly by the FARDC, and there is active intervention by MONUC *on the side of the FARDC*. The FARDC is calling in re-enforcements and given their competence on the battlefield and the loyalty of their leaders, they need all the troops and arms they can get.
MONUC is calling for more “peacekeepers” including co-opting the language of “a surge” which is all rather beyond any mandate they may have, but may in fact be the correct thing to do considering the spreading humanitarian costs of the conflict. Things are getting so bad that Medicins Sans Frontieres is saying they are “losing” North Kivu.
It is all coming to a head, and it will be in the news again the next time MONUC attack helicopters fire on rebel formations…
But one might have missed *this* in all the posturing and maneuvering. Read it carefully, and notice that it is not only Tin Ore exports being banned. There on the list is Columbite-Tantalite as well.
Then remember the assertion made above about “…as Kleptocracy applied to war…”, and watch who is backing which faction to win and look at who will be controlling the resources.
Then pray for the people of the Kivu’s, for they are once again being trampled underfoot.
***
End Notes:
Most notes are embedded as links in the text.
Here is the U.N. Peacekeeping (worldwide) home page:
Here is an analysis by South Scan Ltd. on the quality of the FARDC.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Sunday Morning Push
There is no new discussion thread, mostly to allow me time to work on the Weekly piece.
Lots of things left to do with the existing discussion threads, and I'll be around to comment on them too. If that isn't enough, there is still this week's Open for you all to make your own fun.
Site Meter works like a charm on people linking to here, searching to here, getting a grab from the feed or just entering the URL. Oddly, if you are seeing the posts here via Blogger's "Follower" function, Site Meter does not seem to count you. Same appears true for site widgets that display the latest thread post here in the sidebar of another weblog.
The sure-fire way to see and be seen by Site Meter remains actually visiting and commenting here.
Which reminds me to tell All... Comment!
Otherwise, I might fall into the dangerous intellectual trap of thinking that:
The World does not appreciate my obvious...
((grin))
Seriously, thanks for coming here folks.
Lots of things left to do with the existing discussion threads, and I'll be around to comment on them too. If that isn't enough, there is still this week's Open for you all to make your own fun.
Site Meter works like a charm on people linking to here, searching to here, getting a grab from the feed or just entering the URL. Oddly, if you are seeing the posts here via Blogger's "Follower" function, Site Meter does not seem to count you. Same appears true for site widgets that display the latest thread post here in the sidebar of another weblog.
The sure-fire way to see and be seen by Site Meter remains actually visiting and commenting here.
Which reminds me to tell All... Comment!
Otherwise, I might fall into the dangerous intellectual trap of thinking that:
The World does not appreciate my obvious...
((grin))
Seriously, thanks for coming here folks.
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