Somalia battles escalate

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) is no longer a union at all; al-Shabaab has for months now gone its own way and what was the ICU is now fragmented into regionally-defined pro- and anti- Transitional Federal Government (TFG) elements...

...and they are doing a bang-up job of killing each other in the streets.

The one part of that report (cited in the link) is the possible demise of Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. That would be a very good thing, but I'll believe it when they find the body. For reference, he is a listed supporter of terrorist organizations under U.S. Executive Order 13224. General Information on Aweys can be found in this Personal Profile from Wikipedia. As always, please check the sources there.

Lebanon goes to the polls

In a tremendously important moment for the future of Lebanon, polls opened this morning for Parliamentary elections. The issue at hand, really the only issue that matters, is the possibility that a Hezbollah-led coalition will win control of the legislature. In recognition of its own limitations, Hezbollah itself is running candidates in only about a dozen ridings. But the presence of several allied parties and the traitorous opportunist party of Michel Aoun is giving the pro-Iran / pro-Syria bloc a real chance of taking control.

Here is the work-up on the election from Angus Reid Global Monitor, including a superb historical overview of the background on Lebanon.

***

UPDATE

The "March 14th" Bloc looks to have won a majority! Hezbollah et al have privately conceded defeat.

Adm. Olson on USSOCOM growth; needs

In testimony before the U.S. House Armed Services terrorism subcommittee, Adm. Eric T. Olson, head of U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), addressed both the challenges of growing the force and the emerging need for operations focused on North and East Africa. The first point is perhaps the most nearly self-evident:

Special operations forces can only grow by 3 percent to 5 percent a year, Olson said. But the need for those units to deploy in hot spots around the globe is outpacing that growth, he said.

Think of this in civilian terms for a moment. Pick your favorite professional sport... say Major League Baseball... in that example any time the league tries to expand by a couple of teams, pitching quality drops and general standards of play and management take a knock as well. That's because there are really only about 1200 Major League quality players out there (30 teams, maximum 40 man rosters) by the most generous measure these days. Only about 750 of them are up on the Major League clubs most of the season. The remainder are either on the DL (injured players) or down with Minor League teams. *That* pool, by the way, is less than 6000 players either on the Big Club rosters or trying to climb up to the Majors. Not a whole lot of players there in the whole system, and only ~1 in 5 is actually in The Show.

Keep those numbers in mind and now let's go back to Adm. Olson's problem.

The current manpower allocation for USSOCOM is (in round numbers) 48,000.

Based on what it takes to be a Special Operator, that's an astoundingly high figure already. If it even can be grown at a 3~5% annual rate, there is a serious risk of diluting the force quality. I'll presume the training capability is in place, but there is more to it than just having "more players in the Leagues". Getting, and retaining, good Operators just has to be harder with every expansion.

Now to his second point, made in reply to a question:

He turned to intelligence concerns in North Africa in response to a question from Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., chairman of the subcommittee.

Smith asked Olson if the special operations forces could use more intelligence and surveillance coverage in North Africa, where al-Qaida (al-Qaeda) has set up a franchise in the vast ungoverned areas.

"We've got to find ways of having a better understanding of what is happening there," Olson said, adding that increased surveillance would be one answer.

In fact, the area of concern is both North and East Africa. North Africa is just a bigger concern. The U.S. military and intelligence services have never had more than a very small number of "Africa hands". It was a problem when Western Sahara turned into a war (Kingdom of Morocco vs. the Polisario Front); it was a bigger problem when Mu'ammar al-Qadafi got greedy and tried to annex the Aouzou Strip (northern Chad). The picture isn't very different today. Without Operators who specialize in the region, and this is true for any region, Special Operations is limited in what it can be called upon to do.

So good luck, Admiral. Here's hoping that you've got some "young arms in the farm system" that are ready to step up... and that some of them speak Hausa, Bambara, and North African Arabic.

***

Side note: The force commitment from USSOCOM to Afghanistan is ~5,000 and is about to increase by 1,000 this month. With the requirements for troop rotation these days, that is a big chunk of Special Operations locked in deployment-wise.

Four more attacks in south Thailand

There has been another wave of attacks on teachers, public servants, and military patrols in the Patanni (Pattani) region of southern Thailand; five dead. Two Royal Thai Army Rangers, two school guards, and the head of the local administration in Pattani town.

Schools and teachers are frequent targets of attacks in the south because militants see the education system as an effort by Bangkok to impose Buddhist Thai culture on the mainly ethnic Malay region.

The national government is considering new security measures in the region.

Background on this insurgency can be found *here* at CompHyp.

Guinea-Bissau political killings

The political violence continues in Guinea-Bissau (discussed previously *here* and *here* at CompHyp) with the killing on Friday of Territorial Administration Minister Baciro Dabo, former defence minister Helder Proenca and ex-prime minister Faustino Embali by Military Police in what is termed a "counter-coup operation".

"This was about nipping a coup attempt in the bud. Among the authors of this coup some came quietly while others tried to resist, that is why they were killed," the state intelligence services said in a communique.

"We have material proof that this coup attempt was aimed at physically eliminating the head of the armed forces, overthrowing the interim head of state and dissolving the national assembly," the statement said.

But outside observers aren't taking that at face value:

Analysts and diplomats were sceptical that the security forces were merely foiling a coup, saying the killings appeared to have been politically motivated and may have been connected to dealings with the powerful drug cartels.

RADDHO, a West African rights network, warned that Guinea Bissau was caught up in a dark series of political assassinations, intrigue and impunity.

The United Nations has issued a statement to the media expressing concern and "dismay"... but the U.N. and ECOWAS (the West African Economic Community) have stated that the campaigning for the next election (due to start today) should go on.

Going to be tough to have much of a campaign, with the most-likely-to-win candidate being dead and all. Folks might think the condition could be catching.

The election is scheduled for June 28th.

L.R.A. raids village in western Orientale

The Lord's Resistance Army, driven from Uganda and recently the target of a three-nation offensive that failed to corner (and capture or kill) the LRA leadership, is back to its usual business... just a bit further west over near the Congolese border with the Central African Republic. They fell upon the village of Dakwa (in western Orientale Province) twice in the last week, and reports are that ~135 villagers have been kidnapped.

"They surrounded the village. The people were in mourning. They were taken away into the bush," said Marcel Kumbonyeki, the local Catholic priest in Bondo, some 200 km away, who was contacted by Dakwa's village priest soon after the attack.

"They carried out a second attack at 1400 (1200 GMT) on Wednesday. At that time a policeman was shot then stabbed to death, and they kidnapped the rest," he said.

Medecins Sans Frontieres, an outside aid organization with a presence in the immediate area of the attack, is attempting to confirm the details.

Not Dead

I am back from my trip abroad, but it seems that life here laid in wait for my return. It's going on three days of one-thing-after-another.

Note to self: be careful what you wish for ("it would be nice to be a bit busier"); you might get it.

Expect regular thread postings to resume Saturday, 'blog time.

Thank you all for your patience.