presented without further comment

CYA.

About that $10 million bounty

That being the US$10 million bounty on capture/confirmed demise of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT; 'Army of the Good'; Army of the Righteous; a Pakistan-based Islamist terrorist organization) boss Hafiz Saeed...

...Thomas Joscelyn for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies writing at The Long War Journal has a particularly troubling explanation as to why, why now, and why so much.

Still trying to confirm the kills

Two major GWOT high-value targets may well have been taken this week:

As widely reported, Baitullah Mehsud, a major Pakistani Taliban warlord of South Waziristan, may have been killed by a targeted missile strike... Here is the Washington Post article on the apparent power vacuum and struggle between potential new Taliban leaders. If he is indeed dead (his demise has been reported before), the world is a better place without the presumed master of terror attacks that have killed dozens, including twice-Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

In Indonesia, the Police special detachment believes that they cornered and killed Noordin Muhammad Top, a Malaysian national and chief bomb-plotter of the J.I. (al-Qaeda affiliated) terrorist movement, in a 16 hour gunbattle in Central Java. the raid and a similar one that shot dead two would be suicide-bombers, likely prevented an attack on Indonesia's President Yudhoyono's residence planned to coincide with Indonesian Independence Day celebrations. But... doubts are now emerging as to his demise.

Both cases highlight the difficulties in determining the results of strikes against terror organizations, and in confirming the death of the shadowy figures at the center of such organizations.

Besides, the old rule still applies:

"If you don't see the body, he's probably halfway to Acapulco..."

***

Great analysis and sourcing by the Long War Journal on both stories:

Bill Roggio on Baitullah Mehsud

Nick Grace on Noordin Top

Banner week for designation of terror supporters

It is looking like it must be the season for it, or something...

U.S. Department of the Treasury laid the designation on four individualsin the support networks of al Qaida and Lashkar-e Tayyiba (LET) in Pakistan under Executive Order 13224.

This is yet another effort to cut the financial legs out from under International Terrorism.

The very next day, the ban fell upon one individual and one group, but hooboy... Iran-based individual Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iraq-based Shia extremist group Kata'ib Hizballah are now designated under Executive Order 13438 (the counterinsurgency-motivated ban). This is a big deal because Abui Mahdi al-Muhandis is the Pasdaran Qods Force commander... the main man for Iranian external special operations... and Kata'ib Hizballah (Hezbollah Brigades) is the direct Hezbollah connection inside Iraq.

***

Lots of detail on the meaning of the second listings from Bill Roggio at Long War Journal.

Undermining Democracy

An absolutely "must-read" item for anyone studying the way that authoritarian governments around the world today are using the label of "democracy" to perpetuate their own power.

Undermining Democracy.

A joint research effort by Freedom House, Radio Free Asia, and RFE/RL.

Swat Valley

Over two million IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons; refugees), mostly fleeing the treat of indiscriminate heavy weapons fire by the Army.

Repeated claims by the Pakistani Army that they are "about to" recapture Mingora.

Things are not quite working out as planned for the expected set-piece between the Pakistani Taliban and the Army.

"You cannot distinguish between a Talib and a normal citizen," said Maj. Gen. Sajjad Ali, who commands troops in the northern portion of Swat. "The area is densely populated, and it's very easy for the terrorists to hide."

Uh huh.

Why is anyone surprised?

The Weekly N&C for May 18th, 2009

In another world

*Note: the following scenario is illustrative only; no such operation has ever been mooted in any open-source way, ever.*

With the imminent collapse of the central authority of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea), it has been necessary to prepare alternatives to allowing the nuclear arsenal of that state to fall under the control of those factions or individuals may act outside the constraints upon a state actor. The ongoing turmoil in the command authority that began shortly after the demise of the head of state is apparently accelerating, and it is judged very likely that the unitary structure of the DPRK Army may well be compromised. Were that to result in a further fragmentation of authority, it is deemed an unacceptable risk that said weapons might be used or more likely sold by opportunistic elements in the command authority. In meetings this week, the United Nations Security Council has resolved to call upon the interim government to assure the security of all Weapons of Mass Destruction possessed by the DPRK, in specific requiring demonstrable efforts to disable from use all nuclear armaments and their associated ballistic missile delivery systems. As of this writing, no reply has been made to the UNSC by the interim administration.

Sources in the Japanese Self-Defense Ministry have provided an outline of what course of action is impending: Based upon the decades of careful placement of agents in positions of vital importance in the scientific ranks (and likely the military officer corps) of North Korea, Japanese military intelligence is in possession of information on the location and security precautions surrounding the (sources say) 11 nuclear weapons in the North Korean arsenal. A massive operational contingency plan is in place, calling for the insertion of over 6,000 elite members of the Airborne Regiment and Special Forces, backed by a seizure of air superiority, naval support, and advanced intelligence capabilities that would provide technological and information dominance in the region of the targeted objectives. The source also implied strongly that cooperation with elements of the Republic of Korea (ROK; South Korea) Armed Forces and Intelligence Services is a vital part of this plan. Given the serious nature of the situation, it is clear that this information has become public to assure the people of Japan, and of neighboring states equally threatened by the fall of the Kim regime, that in a crisis the nuclear arsenal of the DPRK will not fall into the hands of rogue military leaders or terrorists.


Are you reassured, yet?

…or does the improbability of that scenario make you stifle a laugh?

…or perhaps you are just stunned by the idea that sources within a government would let such a thing out to a media source, for any reason.

Well, take a moment to compose yourselves, and then let’s take this matter on.

It is entirely immaterial as to whether the hypothetical-Self-Defense-Force of the scenario actually has such a plan. It is sufficient for purposes of this argument that the real Self Defense Force of Japan does have (at least on the Table of Organization) or will likely soon have all the elements cited above, excepting perhaps the massive number of agents infiltrated into the DPRK. Given the decades of interaction between the two nations since the 1950’s, it is not beyond believability that by building on clandestine relationships some (un-named) Japanese Secret Agency could have placed hundreds of agents at various levels, and that is particularly plausible to both North and South Korea observers as those two nations have been engaged in a covert campaign for as long as they have been at war. The elements of “possibility” must exist, and that is enough for now.

If the reader is willing to suspend disbelief this far, then we can use this scenario to make a case about the conduct of the “sources” and the “media” in this case.

The question in challenge: Is anyone’s interest served by “sources” leaking this to the “media”?

If by anyone, one would mean: The agents in place; The soldiers tasked with the mission; The forces of the friendly country said to be acting in support of the mission, or; The government whom the “source” was a part of (in the scenario, Japan)…

Then the answer would be, in sequence: NO; NO; NO, and; well, that depends on how feckless they really are.

If by anyone one meant the “media”, the question would be almost self-answering. The “media” runs stories like this for the perceived benefit to the media, and perhaps that of the reporter. It was a scoop, don't you know.

For one thing that the modern way of war and politics should have already taught any observer is that the enemy reads the news too. To cite but a single example, al-Qaeda's propaganda efforts are full of references to recent events, news reports, and other timely information (partly to prove they are still alive, of course).

That would mean, in the case of the scenario, that after such a story runs in the “media” the agents in place are subject to redoubled efforts by the foe’s counter-intelligence forces, the information on location of and security measures at the target sites is likely to be in flux and defensive preparations will generally be heightened. That pretty much covers the NO; NO; NO part of the answer.

But in regards to the “source”, the answer gets wrapped up in the politics of the moment. Perhaps the “source” is opposed to the proposed plan; Letting out word of it might well torpedo the whole plan. Perhaps the “source” was acting under instructions to say there was such a plan to make the leadership of the government ‘look tough’ for political gain. Perhaps the “source” was sent out to run a fake; there is a plan, it is so risky that no one in the government seriously believes it would ever be used, so someone higher up than the “source” has decided leaking out the plan will cause some intended action on the part of the “foe” (like massively tightening security over their weapons arsenal). It might even be a crude negotiating ploy, were there to be secret discussions on the side happening to get an allied power of the “foe” to quietly take ‘temporary’ possession of the weapons, or to take away the cause for action from a third-party (from the scenario: “don’t worry, Americans; we’ve got a plan”).

None of those possible explanations is particularly beneficial taken as they are.

Were there to *actually* be a plan like the one in the scenario, and it were the only viable option even if the chance of failure or incomplete success was high, such a leak would be disastrous. In fact, it would arguably be criminal.

Now set aside the scenario as presented, and welcome back to the real world.

Pakistan is in the midst of a threatening situation, with Taliban forces within 100 km (60 miles) of the capital, Islamabad, and a weakened central government.

Pakistan is also determined to improve and increase its nuclear arsenal, from the ~100 weapons believed available now.

It has even been openly questioned in the mass media as to how secure the Pakistani nuclear weapons really are.

Someone thought it was a good idea to talk about the situation in Pakistan in the same terms as the fanciful scenario presented here.


Are you reassured, yet?


***
End Notes:

All End Notes are linked in the text, above.

Civilian panic in Swat, NWFP

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is citing tens of thousands of displaced persons fleeing the North West Frontier Provinces as the Pakistani Taliban have gone on the offensive and the Pakistani Army has begun at least a few serious operations to stop them.

Here's where is gets bad: As the UNHCR alluded to in the summary of emerging risks, the Voice of America is also citing the movement of as many as 500,000 persons fleeing the fighting in Swat, just one region under contest.

Mass refugee movements are far more disruptive to the efforts of the regular Army than they are to the insurgents... indeed, the Taliban must be pleased with the results of their efforts so far.

As General David Petraeus, Commander of the U.S. Central Command, said last week, the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive... counting from the 30th of April... there is already one week gone on the timer.

The battlefront has moved... closer

Efforts by the Government of Pakistan to reach a kind of "live and let live" accommodation with the various faces of the Pakistani Taliban have led to: failure throughout the FATA (Tribal Territories; the central borderland with Afghanistan); a concession on the part of the nation in Swat, and now...

A Taliban walk-over in Buner, the next territory closer to the Pakistani capital of Islamabad.

The always excellent Bill Roggio over at Long War Journal has a superb analysis, with multiple Pakistan sources cited and a very clear map showing just how bad things really are.

It is so bad that even U.S. Secretary of State H. Clinton seemed to notice,

calling the (situation in the) nuclear state a "mortal threat" to the security of the world.

Well, yes. The unasked question at the Congressional Hearing she was speaking at was "Has your Department come to believe that just recently?"

Operation Pathway -- 0-12

The title pretty much says it all. Operation Pathway, the emergency British Anti-Terrorism operation that detained 12 suspects to supposedly thwart an Easter Bombing threat has turned up...

nothing.

no bomb factory.

no evidence leading to indictments.

all 12 suspects released without charge.

nada.

There is going to be political hell to pay on this one.

The Weekly N&C for April 13th, 2009

Leaving Denial

It has been a longstanding matter in Arab Republic of Egypt that the greatest threat always comes from within. Neither Israel’s willingness to fight on Egyptian soil rather than their own, nor Libya’s occasional threats of border warfare are existential threats; the Israelis have no desire to attack the heartland of Egypt, and the Libyans lack the capability. But Egypt is a secular Arab nation, perhaps the definitive example of the Arab Nationalist State, and that has meant that through all the years since the rise of Jamal Abdel Nasser’s seizure of the state and his securing power in the wake of the Suez Incident (1956), there has been a single significant opposition to the power of the state: The Moslem Brotherhood. This Islamist movement has significant strength in other Arab States, but nowhere does it have such deep roots as in Egypt. While the government of Egypt makes some substantial claims that the Moslem Brotherhood participates in militant resistance to the secular state, and they are certainly advocates of such, what they actually provide to the Islamist cause is an ideological base and a large following that has been taught to believe in that thinking.

The government has been more than willing to attribute all manner of plots and affairs to the Moslem Brotherhood, has placed bans on their activities and actively pursued members of the group for crimes real… and perhaps not-so-real. But one thing that was almost insistently claimed was that the activities of such Islamist inside Egypt was an Egyptian problem, caused by and blamed on Egyptians. To consider the possibility of an outside hand influencing things was often dismissed with such canards as “Sunni militants don’t cooperate with Shiite militants”.

Where that all began to break down was when the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) appeared from within the Moslem Brotherhood’s ranks in 1980. This group came to the fore with stunning rapidity and on October 6th, 1981, committed the assassination of President Anwar El Sadat. There are a host of names associated with Khalid Al-Islambouli, the assassin who would be heard of again, elsewhere: Omar Abdel-Rahman wrote the fatwa (clerical justification under Islamic Law) for the assassination; another of the Cairo-based element was Ayman Al-Zawahiri; just to cite examples.

Astoundingly, while the Egyptian government did break the cell and arrest most all of the then-called Tanzim al-Jihad, only 5 members were executed and the bulk of the mid-rank members were released from jail after serving a few years in prison. Those members then went into wide dispersal, many to Afghanistan and Pakistan to join in the Mujahideen in the war against the Soviet invaders of Afghanistan.

But even without its most militant faction, the Moslem Brotherhood continued to inspire. In nearby Gaza of the Palestine Mandate Territory, the Palestinian wing of the Moslem Brotherhood spawned Ḥarakat al-Muqāwamat al-Islāmiyyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement, better known by its acromym: HAMAS. From its very beginning in 1987, HAMAS has proven to be the most determined Islamist movement inside the Palestinian community, and by far the most successful. Moreover, the strength that has allowed that success is of a kind not only drawn from the support of fellow believers inside Egypt but from a close, supportive relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Weapons and money flowed into HAMAS, and more; the only Palestinian militant group that has even considered implementing the particular version of Islamic Law practiced by the theocrats that run Iran is HAMAS.

So here we have a parallel linkage occurring.

EIJ members are one of the significant elements that make up al-Qaeda and implement their plots: Abdel-Rahman was a key part of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing (truck bomb); Al-Zawahiri is one of “a majority” of the members of al-Qaeda’s ruling council drawn from EIJ. In the annals of al-Qaeda, EIJ formally became a part of al-Qaeda in June of 2001. But in the background, back home in Egypt, there is a wide community of support for such endeavors in the well-sown field of the Egyptian under-classes that are the political base of the current incarnation of the Moslem Brotherhood. This is just the sort of prepared ideological base that can be turned to use by active militants, just as it had been throughout the period of “open war” between the EIJ and the Egyptian government (1993~2000).

Yet at the same time, the HAMAS group is a cat’s-paw of Iran in their struggle for dominance over the Middle East. They need constant support and re-arming, and Iran is the primary facilitator for that. But one can not (as some more innocent supporters found out when they tried) simply sail a boat loaded with supplies into the Gaza Strip. The district is under strict Israeli embargo / inspection on three sides, and the Egyptian government makes at least all the right public postures about keeping their Gaza border closed as well. To get anything of value to militants into the Gaza, one has to have a route through Egypt (from somewhere, most often Sudan) leading up to the Sinai, and then access to the HAMAS-controlled smuggling tunnels into the Gaza.

There are a few sources that say the parallel linkage had become unified during the time EIJ was run by al-Zawahiri, with members being sent to Iran for training, and to work and train with Hezbollah, the Iranian front-group in Lebanon…

Oh yes, Hezbollah (Hizub’llah; Party of God), the state-within-a-state opposition to Israel’s existence and primary tool world-wide of Iran’s Pasdaran (Guardians of the Islamic Revolution; commonly abbreviated as IRGC). Now there is a shining example of Shiite extremism forged into a useful weapon for Iranian military and political goals. But such a group couldn’t possibly find any support or assistance within Egypt for its activities, could it?

The government of Egypt certainly acted as if Hezbollah’s agenda had no traction, at least until recently. Well, it seems that it is time to be leaving such denial behind:

April 9th, 2009, Egypt discovered and arrested 15 Hezbollah operatives inside Egypt planning acts of terror against the state and seeing to supplying arms to HAMAS for use against Israel.

April 12th, 2009, the details of the case became clearer and the origin of the threat to the Egyptian government was connected to the growing hostility between Egypt and Iran (over Bahrain’s sovereignty; Lebanon’s political future; and over a host of Arab reactions to recent Iranian provocations).

April 13th, 2009, the sheer size of the Hezbollah operation is unmasked, with Egyptian authorities in pursuit of 13 more Hezbollah operatives in the Sinai.

There is a lesson to be learned here, and it applies not only to the situation in Egypt:

Iran’s Pasdaran will use whatever linkage they can to gain support, where ever they can find the ground prepared.

That means not discounting an active al-Qaeda connection just because the Taliban are historically opposed to Iran. It is provable that Iranian arms are being fed into Afghanistan just as they were (and are, albeit at a lesser rate) into Iraq.

That means remembering the success Iran (via Hezbollah) has had in South America, successfully performing two major bombings in Argentina.

That means being very, very wary of the Tehran-Damascus-Caracas air link and the toleration that is being shown to Hezbollah representatives in Venezuela; the same applies to the outsized “diplomatic” presence in Nicaragua held by the Iranians right now.

If one insists on denying that the Iranians are not intent on using their capabilities to further their campaign of undeclared war, at a time and place of their choosing, then…

Then one day the arrests won’t just be happening in Egypt.

They’ll be happening where you live.

That is, if your police are as fortunate as the Egyptian authorities were this time.

***
End Notes:

All directly relevant End Notes are linked in the text.

General Information on all the Groups, Persons, and Places can be found at Wikipedia. The usual caveat applies to such, however: Check all the sources.

Easter bombing threat

It looks very much like MI5 and the police in the U.K. have interrupted a plot to conduct a massive terrorist attack on Easter. 12 suspects have been arrested in a hastily re-planned police operation (after the now-former senior Anti-Terrorism Officer in the U.K. committed a blunder that nearly revealed the investigation).

The search is now on for the bomb-making "factory", and likely for other suspects implicated by the arrests and confiscations of materials.

These arrests also are rapidly turning into an international incident as 11(?) of the suspects are Pakistani Nationals, with 10 of them having entered the U.K. on student visas approved (in part) by Pakistan. Substantial ties to al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban are reported to have been found as well.

This is an on-going story, and likely further information will become public shortly.

New American plan for the Afghanistan theater of war

By now, one has likely read about the Obama administration's follow-on of 4,000 more troops to add to the already allocated 17,000 troops and "hundreds of civilians" to be sent as re-enforcements to the Afghanistan theater of the war, and the offer of US$1.5 billion (over five years) in aid to Pakistan.

What you might have missed are:

The statement from Senator Carl Levin on the new plan (not all good, not all bad, in his opinion) and the scheduling of a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, April 1st, to call in Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy, CentCom CG David Petraeus and USSOCOM commander Admiral Eric Olson to testify.

The statement from Ambassador Said T. Jawad of Afghanistan on the plan and his open request to the NATO allies to do more as well.

The statement from President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan on the plan and his measured support for it.

Now we just need a little more talk of "victory" as a goal and things will certainly be moving in the right direction.

***
A special CompHyp "thank you" to the FOXNews folks for their great work on the Urgent Queue to get these extra details out to reporters and the public. Bravo, folks.

Not quite the whole story...

FOXNews usually gets it right when they do "world news" stories... well, that is if they get don't get handed a load of horsehockey by the AP (or other wire services) to work with, but this report on the Pakistan Civil Liberties Crackdown just doesn't really give one a sense of what is going on.

They got the part about hundreds of people arrested right, but didn't really convey either the level of military deployment to stop the protest march or the sheer size and population of the districts of Sindh or Punjab... the areas under the ban and military intervention... It is as if the U.S.A. government suspended right of assembly and sent in the army to every state east of the Mississippi, plus Texas.

This, combined with the electoral ban against Nawaz Sharif, is as close to a potential breakdown of public order as has come under the Zardari regime. All it would take is a spark to set it off...

Um...

I was holding this back, but as one major media outlet and several weblogs are running it...

...U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein should know better than to say things like this, especially in a public hearing.

No, the Agency isn't confirming it as true, officially.

Here is the Washington Post article of March 2008 D. Feinstein's mouthpiece claims is her open source. Quoting from there:

Musharraf, who controls the country's military forces, has long approved U.S. military strikes on his own. But senior officials in Pakistan's leading parties are now warning that such unilateral attacks -- including the Predator strikes launched from bases near Islamabad and Jacobabad in Pakistan -- could be curtailed.

This report wasn't confirmed or denied at the time, either, with good reason.

Bringing it up again now just throws gasoline on the fire that is Pakistani politics, and just in time for "Special Envoy" R. Holbrooke to be in the region.

A.Q. Khan... freed

The no-doubt-about-it *most* successful nuclear proliferator in history has been let free of "house arrest" by Pakistan... who by the way considers him a National Hero.

OFAC and UNSC Sanctions should be the least of the immediate reactions, on him and if politically possible on Pakistan for protecting him.

Further would be if various governments can put together a more meaningful international Arrest Warrant on him.

Best of all, of course, would be for him to conveniently hand himself over to IAEA and INTERPOL for a series of long, long, LONG discussions...

...but that is not going to happen.

At least, not the "hand himself over" part.

New Supply Routes

General D. Petraeus, commander of the U.S. Central Command, has announced the securing of new supply routes to Afghanistan.

These would be the much-needed Central Asian routes, bypassing Pakistan, that both allow secure re-supply of ongoing operations and will be capable of building up capacity to support the coming troop increase in the theater this spring and summer.

Excellent news, indeed.

Finishing up some A.Q. Khan details

The U.S. State Department has taken this opportunity to proceed with placing under sanction a dozen entities associated with the A.Q. Khan network of nuclear proliferation black-marketeers.

Regrettably, A.Q. Khan himself remains out of reach to investigators, sitting "under house arrest" in Pakistan, where he is revered as a national hero...

Cross two more off the list

The always excellent Bill Roggio at Long War Journal writes about the recent demise of two very bad men in a successful cross-border Predator strike in South Waziristan, back on New Year's Day. General public confirmation just came out this week on the deaths.

I'm sure that the major rejoicing going on is because these men were in ongoing al-Qaeda operations, having been a part of various 2007~08 attacks inside Pakistan including the Marriott Hotel bombing.

I'll just be contented to go to that little list of people responsible for the 1998 U.S. Embassy attacks in Tanzania and Kenya...

...and draw a wide black line through both these names.

Gander, meet Goose

Statements reprinted by DPA (Deutche Press) make it sound like Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India is not exactly supportive of the Israeli counter-attack in Gaza, to say the least.

India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Thursday strongly condemned Israeli bombings of the Gaza Strip and expressed hope that the world community will work together to restore peace in the region. In his first public statement on the ongoing attacks, Singh said India strongly condemns the incidents and regrets the loss of many innocent lives.

Coincidentally, the Government of India also released to DPA the following remarks by M. Singh regarding the ongoing India-Pakistan matters related to the Mumbai (Bombay) attacks of last month:

Speaking in Chennai, Singh said the forces of extremism and terrorism would not be allowed to destabilize the economy and polity of India. He promised to work with the global community to ensure that there are no safe havens or launching pads for terrorists.

Noting that the Mumbai attacks were a grim reminder of the threat posed by extremism to India's pluralistic and liberal traditions, Singh said, "There are some who would not like to see India succeed. But we have shown, over and over again, that we will not allow the forces of terrorism and extremism to destabilize our polity, our economy and our society," he said.

Not seeing any implied contradiction there; nope.

Gentlemen, the same fanatical ideology, the same methodology, and the same root causes are behind LeT and Hamas; perhaps the same enablers are playing a role as well.

It might be at least half a good idea to consider that given India's current need for diplomatic maneuvering room if push comes to shove and India has to strike inside Pakistan, it is less than beneficial to be denouncing someone else for going into a terrorist nest and taking out some of the trash.

It might also have been wiser to run the Press Release on both of these items straight out to all media, rather than leaving DPA the opportunity to spread the shall-we-say-edited message *they* wanted to.