Not unrelated

From the "must read" files for the day:

O'Grady: The Argentine Way of Business (Mary Anastasia O'Grady), and...

The pain in Spain could hit worldwide economy (Robert J. Samuelson).

The effects of these two things are not unrelated.

YPF

The title refers to the Argentine Oil business, majority owned by Spain's Repsol...

...until now. (link via PJMedia as FT is partly paywalled)

Classic Peronist thuggery by the Argentine government: A legislative decree nationalizing all the Repsol shares on an uncompensated (at least as presented) basis.

Spain, reacting to this both as proxy for Repsol *and* because of the massive position of Spanish and other EU banks in Repsol is rightfully furious. Here's the BBC version of that story:

Promising a "clear and overwhelming" response, Spain summoned the Argentine ambassador to express its concern.

...and were this "the old days", said ambassador would shortly be headed home with an ultimatum "backed by the sovereign power" of Spain. That's *probably* not the message this time. What is in the package, however, is almost certainly statement of a joint Spanish-EU opposition to the nationalization of YPS shares (and only the foreign-owned shares) by Argentina and the implication of what the EU could do to Argentina's export markets by sanction.

Meanwhile, real harm has already resulted: Repsol-YPS CDS Surge (CDS being Credit Default Swaps).

Argentina is rapidly managing to offend most all of their trading partners and what few friends they have left. The Chavistas are still on their side, but that's like having the Mafia think highly of you... maybe helpful, but rarely a good character reference. Oh, I guess we have to count inept but vaguely supportive guys, too.

The rest of us, however, would like to see Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner take some lumps for this latest outrage.

...and Now.

There is serious evidence that between envy at other's success and their traditional bullheadedness, the Argies (as a Nation-State) haven't learned their lesson.

Besides the fact that the persistence of any Argentine claim to the Falkland Islands is only slightly less defensible or precedent-based than the (*former*) Indonesian claim to Timor Leste (East Timor)...

...I'll defend that in detail, if you'd like. Remember, I'm as revanchist as they come *when there is an actual historical claim to territory*, I'll gladly go chapter-and-verse on why this "claim" is Nationalist claptrap and has been since Argentina managed by some grace of heaven to liberate itself from the Spanish Empire...

...anyway besides that, the fact is they tried aggression and ended up with all the moral justification for their position that Saddam Hussein had when his army was sitting in Kuwait. And then they got what was coming to them, even without an Article 5 NATO intervention or a UNSC authorization of force. Just little 'ol tired Britain (and a tiny handful of help) gave them just what they deserved and frankly they got off lightly with the only reprisal outside the campaign on the islands was the sinking of the General Belgrano... Yes, that's heartless of me to say so. Doesn't change the fact that had the Argentines pulled a stunt like that on a U.S. possession they would have been picking up the pieces of every airplane, rowboat and army barracks from Buenos Aires to Tierra del Fuego. Don't ask what Ivan would have done to them had it been their collection of turf and sheep.

But these days, Argentina (again, the Nation-State, not necessarily the ordinary citizen) seems intent on playing again... at least politically. With a steady growth in GDP for the islands and the recent petroleum exploration success, Falklands is on its way to returning the favor to the homeland for all the lives and all the years defending the place. Argentina, on the other hand, remains mired in one of the longest and ugliest economic collapses of the last century, vastly worse and longer lived than the current unpleasantness in the U.S.A. and Europe. The current Argie management, the regime of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (Yes, she married her way into politics. It's a local tradition after all.) is part patron and part client of Hugo Chavez' schemes of anti-just-about-anyone-halfway-decent Gangster Totalitarianism Bolivarian Socialism, and living up to that means having enough ego and envy to parade around making threats against anyone that one might have a grudge against. Okay, fine. Argies are pretty good at grudge-holding, but that still doesn't make any sense of schemes and plots that require rather more ability (and weapons) than they have. On the other hand, that does fit Hugo's M.O. pretty well... big talk but really not capable of beating up on anyone three weight-classes down.

The U.K. side of things has been steady and measured (and more than Cristina and her political henchlings deserve, frankly). With the construction and constant operation of RAF Mount Pleasant, and a fairly good plan for rapid re-enforcement, there is also the stick available in case calm words and a few carrots don't keep the peace. None the less, it pays to be prepared.

In the words of Sara Jones (widow of Lt Col Herbert 'H' Jones VC OBE, 2PARA ):

"We stood up for what we believed in. We didn’t like to see a small country overrun by somebody who had very little claim to it."

She told The Daily Telegraph: "The islanders have always been fiercely British and want to stay that way. I would like to believe that we would, if we could, do it again."

***

If you've not heard of 'H' before, this is of marginal value in telling about the man.

caveat: this and the Wikipedia links above are only for general reference. Please check all actual citations.

Then...

Thirty years ago today.

Nothing much to celebrate except that the lads and the Kelpers made a good try of an impossible situation.

...but, the famous parting words of "Don't make yourself too comfy mate, we'll be back" eventually proved true enough.

We'll be celebrating on 14.June, though.

***

Personal note to Mum: I'd wager you remember my catching the fleet reports on BBC shortwave in the days just after this, disturbing the office and all. Then again, I didn't exactly mention why at the time. ((wry grin))

Since someone asked...

...there's not much good to say about double-dealing agreement-breaking already-invaded-once Argentina in regard to the latest developments in the Falkland Islands.

...but there is far less good to say about the American government's stance on the issue. In fact, just to point out how *idiotic* the Obama administration (and in particular the State Department) is being, here's a "fun fact" for you:

The British sovereignty over the Falkland Islands is a slightly *better* claim, as such things are considered, than the American sovereignty over the Florida Keys.

The only significant difference is that neither Cuba nor Spain chose to "reserve their claim" as a condition to joining the United Nations... Argentina expressly did so regarding the Falkland Islands, and any time an Argentine government makes a mess of things domestically, they haul out this old canard and pray for a nationalist frenzy to bail them out.

Iran in Latin America

They are just reaching out... building diplomatic relationships... sure...

You might want to read this before you take that position.

The Argentinean prosecutor who ferreted out Iranian links to Argentina's largest terror attack warned Wednesday of Teheran's growing terror network in Latin America.

He cites chapter and verse on the whole story... and it isn't good news.

UNCLOS Sea Bed filing deadline

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) stipulates that all claims to be made for sea bed or continental shelf extensions to Exclusive Economic Zones allowed under the treaty be filed by 13.May 2009. (excepting Antarctic Claims, which remain deferred)

Well, that's tomorrow and it seems that the claims are pouring in.

The ones to watch are: the Russian claims (all of them); the Argentine vs. U.K. counter-claims in the South Atlantic, and; the various mid-ocean claims extending from singular or limited island holdings... France and the U.K. have a lot of these.

The "good neighbor" award already went to Norway for filing early and in agreement with most all its neighboring states, but a close second goes to the Irish / U.K. / French / Spanish joint filing over the division of rights in the Bay of Biscay and the extended continental shelf west from there. Bravo!

No jacket required

Iran has announced the sudden cancellation of the massive entourage tour by Imadinnerjacket President M. Ahmadinejad and about a 100 associates to Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador that was scheduled to start tomorrow.

No explanation of the cancellation was made.

Roberto Jaguaribe, a political undersecretary at Brazil’s foreign ministry, told reporters in Brasilia it will be rescheduled for a date after Iran’s June 12 elections.

That may be, but between the protests in the streets of Brazil's cities...

A few thousand rallied over the weekend in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, carrying banners that read “President Lula: explain to your guest what freedom of expression means.”

and the claims of Argentina for extradition of five wanted Iranians indicted for the 1994 terror bombing of the AMIA building in Buenos Aires, Iran is not as popular down south of the equator as it seems to be in Chavezistan.

The Weekly N&C for April 13th, 2009

Leaving Denial

It has been a longstanding matter in Arab Republic of Egypt that the greatest threat always comes from within. Neither Israel’s willingness to fight on Egyptian soil rather than their own, nor Libya’s occasional threats of border warfare are existential threats; the Israelis have no desire to attack the heartland of Egypt, and the Libyans lack the capability. But Egypt is a secular Arab nation, perhaps the definitive example of the Arab Nationalist State, and that has meant that through all the years since the rise of Jamal Abdel Nasser’s seizure of the state and his securing power in the wake of the Suez Incident (1956), there has been a single significant opposition to the power of the state: The Moslem Brotherhood. This Islamist movement has significant strength in other Arab States, but nowhere does it have such deep roots as in Egypt. While the government of Egypt makes some substantial claims that the Moslem Brotherhood participates in militant resistance to the secular state, and they are certainly advocates of such, what they actually provide to the Islamist cause is an ideological base and a large following that has been taught to believe in that thinking.

The government has been more than willing to attribute all manner of plots and affairs to the Moslem Brotherhood, has placed bans on their activities and actively pursued members of the group for crimes real… and perhaps not-so-real. But one thing that was almost insistently claimed was that the activities of such Islamist inside Egypt was an Egyptian problem, caused by and blamed on Egyptians. To consider the possibility of an outside hand influencing things was often dismissed with such canards as “Sunni militants don’t cooperate with Shiite militants”.

Where that all began to break down was when the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) appeared from within the Moslem Brotherhood’s ranks in 1980. This group came to the fore with stunning rapidity and on October 6th, 1981, committed the assassination of President Anwar El Sadat. There are a host of names associated with Khalid Al-Islambouli, the assassin who would be heard of again, elsewhere: Omar Abdel-Rahman wrote the fatwa (clerical justification under Islamic Law) for the assassination; another of the Cairo-based element was Ayman Al-Zawahiri; just to cite examples.

Astoundingly, while the Egyptian government did break the cell and arrest most all of the then-called Tanzim al-Jihad, only 5 members were executed and the bulk of the mid-rank members were released from jail after serving a few years in prison. Those members then went into wide dispersal, many to Afghanistan and Pakistan to join in the Mujahideen in the war against the Soviet invaders of Afghanistan.

But even without its most militant faction, the Moslem Brotherhood continued to inspire. In nearby Gaza of the Palestine Mandate Territory, the Palestinian wing of the Moslem Brotherhood spawned Ḥarakat al-Muqāwamat al-Islāmiyyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement, better known by its acromym: HAMAS. From its very beginning in 1987, HAMAS has proven to be the most determined Islamist movement inside the Palestinian community, and by far the most successful. Moreover, the strength that has allowed that success is of a kind not only drawn from the support of fellow believers inside Egypt but from a close, supportive relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Weapons and money flowed into HAMAS, and more; the only Palestinian militant group that has even considered implementing the particular version of Islamic Law practiced by the theocrats that run Iran is HAMAS.

So here we have a parallel linkage occurring.

EIJ members are one of the significant elements that make up al-Qaeda and implement their plots: Abdel-Rahman was a key part of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing (truck bomb); Al-Zawahiri is one of “a majority” of the members of al-Qaeda’s ruling council drawn from EIJ. In the annals of al-Qaeda, EIJ formally became a part of al-Qaeda in June of 2001. But in the background, back home in Egypt, there is a wide community of support for such endeavors in the well-sown field of the Egyptian under-classes that are the political base of the current incarnation of the Moslem Brotherhood. This is just the sort of prepared ideological base that can be turned to use by active militants, just as it had been throughout the period of “open war” between the EIJ and the Egyptian government (1993~2000).

Yet at the same time, the HAMAS group is a cat’s-paw of Iran in their struggle for dominance over the Middle East. They need constant support and re-arming, and Iran is the primary facilitator for that. But one can not (as some more innocent supporters found out when they tried) simply sail a boat loaded with supplies into the Gaza Strip. The district is under strict Israeli embargo / inspection on three sides, and the Egyptian government makes at least all the right public postures about keeping their Gaza border closed as well. To get anything of value to militants into the Gaza, one has to have a route through Egypt (from somewhere, most often Sudan) leading up to the Sinai, and then access to the HAMAS-controlled smuggling tunnels into the Gaza.

There are a few sources that say the parallel linkage had become unified during the time EIJ was run by al-Zawahiri, with members being sent to Iran for training, and to work and train with Hezbollah, the Iranian front-group in Lebanon…

Oh yes, Hezbollah (Hizub’llah; Party of God), the state-within-a-state opposition to Israel’s existence and primary tool world-wide of Iran’s Pasdaran (Guardians of the Islamic Revolution; commonly abbreviated as IRGC). Now there is a shining example of Shiite extremism forged into a useful weapon for Iranian military and political goals. But such a group couldn’t possibly find any support or assistance within Egypt for its activities, could it?

The government of Egypt certainly acted as if Hezbollah’s agenda had no traction, at least until recently. Well, it seems that it is time to be leaving such denial behind:

April 9th, 2009, Egypt discovered and arrested 15 Hezbollah operatives inside Egypt planning acts of terror against the state and seeing to supplying arms to HAMAS for use against Israel.

April 12th, 2009, the details of the case became clearer and the origin of the threat to the Egyptian government was connected to the growing hostility between Egypt and Iran (over Bahrain’s sovereignty; Lebanon’s political future; and over a host of Arab reactions to recent Iranian provocations).

April 13th, 2009, the sheer size of the Hezbollah operation is unmasked, with Egyptian authorities in pursuit of 13 more Hezbollah operatives in the Sinai.

There is a lesson to be learned here, and it applies not only to the situation in Egypt:

Iran’s Pasdaran will use whatever linkage they can to gain support, where ever they can find the ground prepared.

That means not discounting an active al-Qaeda connection just because the Taliban are historically opposed to Iran. It is provable that Iranian arms are being fed into Afghanistan just as they were (and are, albeit at a lesser rate) into Iraq.

That means remembering the success Iran (via Hezbollah) has had in South America, successfully performing two major bombings in Argentina.

That means being very, very wary of the Tehran-Damascus-Caracas air link and the toleration that is being shown to Hezbollah representatives in Venezuela; the same applies to the outsized “diplomatic” presence in Nicaragua held by the Iranians right now.

If one insists on denying that the Iranians are not intent on using their capabilities to further their campaign of undeclared war, at a time and place of their choosing, then…

Then one day the arrests won’t just be happening in Egypt.

They’ll be happening where you live.

That is, if your police are as fortunate as the Egyptian authorities were this time.

***
End Notes:

All directly relevant End Notes are linked in the text.

General Information on all the Groups, Persons, and Places can be found at Wikipedia. The usual caveat applies to such, however: Check all the sources.

Is Chavez running out of money?

There have been progressively developing reports that with the Crude Oil spot market returning to sanity (and perhaps even below expected values), that all the commitments of H. Chavez' government and extra-territorial ambitions are placing a back-breaking burden on the Venezuelan economy.

It does look like he is trying even harder now to get his hands on any endeavor that has potential cash value. The latest move is the nationalization of the largest working gold mine in the country.

Given the 500% rise in cocaine transshipment through Venezuela in the last five years, perhaps it could be considered a bright spot that this latest nationalization may at least have the trappings of legality...

but also given the uses that the Chavez regime put money to, perhaps it would be better for everyone if he did run out of money and shortly thereafter friends.

Pop Quiz

If some one asked you "What country has claimed they would intervene militarily in Bolivia twice in the last few years?", what would would be your answer?

Here's the answer, near the end of this excellent piece from Francisco Olivares at El Universal (Caracas). English translation provided by El Universal.

If you count the *other* briefcases...

...it gets up to a more respectable sum.

For any of you following the Antonini testimony in the Venezuela / Argentina / suitcase-full-of-money case being tried in Miami right now, it seems the stakes just got a little bigger.

You see, one of the mysteries of the case so far was "Why was the Chavez regime so upset about a fairly trivial effort to buy influence going wrong?" as the one 'briefcase' had only US$800,000. If in fact the total sum being delivered was US$5,000,000...

If this gets proven, Chavez and his fellow travellers are one step closer to the fate of M. Noriega.