Fausta on Lugo

H/T to CompHyp friend Fausta Wertz.

Lugo will be spending more time with his families.

Heh.

For those not following this, the administration of ex-President Lugo of Paraguay was one of the more distant of the ALBA-linked regimes in Latin America. Clipping his wings is another step in the roll-back of Chavista-inspired misgovernment across the continent.

I hope the people of Paraguay get a fairer hearing than Honduras got when M. Zelaya was taken down.

Zelaya

The Honduran case-without-peer of the description "All hat and no cattle" is about to make his return... or will he?

Mel Zelaya is an opportunist, a craven adopter of Chavista thinking, and by a number of measures nuttier than a fruitcake, but he's either an idiot-savant of Central American political survival or an exceptionally well-coached tool of someone else (you can probably guess my choice of those two); He's not going to go back to Honduras unless he can gain by doing so.

Here's a little guidance for political operatives on the side of right in this drama:

If Zelaya does go back to Honduras, what *he* does is of no importance. What those who wish to use his return to go back to dismantling the Constitution do is of paramount importance. Quietly, effectively, and if need be slowly politically isolate those actors... particularly from their support base in Chavez-ALBA-land. It matters not one whit what Zelaya says if no one cares to listen. Which leads to...

Whether he comes back or just sits in self-exile and plays troublemaker, the best way to make him a non-factor is to address the *other* matters that make life hard in Honduras. Number One would be Public Safety, but that comes with all sorts of authoritarian risks; Better to go for some successes on the economic front, or in reforming the bureaucracy (especially at the local level) to give the people something to see that the government has done right. I for one don't care if it is as trite an effort as Japan's "Cool Biz" campaign (which was astoundingly popular if rather simple) or something big; just get something done right your electorate can recognize was a good thing.

If one is really willing to gamble, take a whack at Public Health issues... the first Central American country that comes up with a viable (and reasonably affordable) clinic system to bring baseline health care up to some acceptable standard without getting caught up in the Cuban Doctor scam will have something of real value to be proud of.

So here's your shot, President Lobo. Find a way to make Honduras proud of what it has done, not just of what it once did. Do that, and the history books will only mention Mel Zelaya in passing reference.

Yes and No

Yes, this is good. Sure would be better if some progress toward getting Gbagbo out was happening on the ground, though.

No, this isn't good. Neither is the ongoing "teachers strike" which is about a whole lot more than education.

Someone, part 2

Follow-up to "Someone..." written here at CompHyp on 7.January.

It is always a pleasure to have La Gringa help me out with media sources in Honduras, and I remain grateful to her for responding quickly to some of my questions. (I, of course, then was unavailable for a couple of days... but *she* was quick.) Here's some further information on the Honduras Minibus Attack story:

Local news report (Spanish language) with photographs of the vehicle after the attack. Here's her observations at that time (8.January)

They may have been after one person initially but the attack on the bus wasn't targeted. It looked like at least 100 bullets in the sides, front and back of the bus.

The police are calling it an ajuste de cuentas (CompHyp reader help: translates lit: adjustment of accounts; "settling scores") between two competing drug factions. The police frequently claim the motive was an ajuste de cuentas and that is usually the end of the story. It is rare that anyone is ever charged with this type of crime.

One of the survivors was interviewed in the hospital. She said she didn't have anything to do with drugs.

Life has no value in Honduras and crime is out of control. I wouldn't expect to hear any more about this except for the occasional article over the next week or two at most saying the police are working on it, then it will fade from view as the next massacre takes the limelight, and the one after that. It's really only slightly out of the norm of what happens here every day.

I do appreciate that last about how such crime is 'only slightly out of the norm', although there is something about this particular event that may well go beyond that. Fortunately, La Gringa was willing to continue the discussion and gave me permission to publish it here. In her second letter, she added (all links Spanish language):

But I have a couple of corrections from a different news channel last night. The ages of the youngest victims may not be accurate. I think the police were just guessing the ages initially. La Prensa reports today that the youngest victims were 2 years and 8 months old which is what the police spokesman said last night. In the photo, one of the coffins appears to be infant size. La Tribuna has a list of victims and different ages in this article.

Proceso Digital has had several articles over the past 2 days... The latest article (as I write) has a little more info about the suspected intended targets, but basically the same as the LP article.

I wouldn't want to be one of the survivors. In one article I read that the police have asked the military to guard the survivors at the hospital, but eventually they'll have to leave and I wouldn't put their chances at survival high if the criminals think they can be identified.

It is very common in Honduras to blame the victim. I think that we all want to believe that the victim "must have been involved in something" or "must have made someone mad". In this case, it very likely might be true, but overall it makes me very sad. I can perfectly see that guys who feel very macho with AK-47s would be infuriated that the bus driver didn't stop and blast the hell out of it with no concern for who might be inside.

I think that we have to have that belief so that we feel a little safer, that *we* aren't involved in anything like that so *we* or the people we love won't be killed in some senseless act. But really, all we have to do is to take the wrong bus, go to the wrong restaurant at the wrong time, work at the wrong place, or drive down the street at the wrong time.... We can't live in terror all the time, so we get hardened to what happens here every day.

A very sad picture she paints, I think. I remain at least willing to consider the possibility that the eventual connection in this crime will be that the people targeted were relatives of those who, or actually a part of an effort to, oppose the Narcos. I can't second source that, though, so I may well have to let the 'wrong place; wrong people' narrative hold. That does, however, lead us to this last request from La Gringa in our conversation:

If I see anything more informative, I will let you know, and I would appreciate it if you would let me know if you have any updates.

That goes for me as well. Any update on this story, especially one that puts the targeted individual(s) in the context of place, activity, or relationship with anti-Narco or (sad possibility) Narco actors would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you, and thanks to La Gringa again.

***

Update 17.January

Thanks to Fausta for linking to this in her Carvival of the Americas news links today.

Someone; Someone's Wife; Someone's Children

It is just the sort of nasty, but somehow insignificant story that passes in the news stream: The AP reports 8 dead, 3 wounded in Honduras bus shooting.

Gunmen killed four women and four children, including an 18-month boy, and wounded three others Thursday in an attack on a minibus in Honduras, officials said.

The attack in the rural eastern province of Olancho appears to have been aimed at one of the passengers on the minibus, said Security Ministry spokesman Leonel Sauceda.

(sourced via SFGate)

This version of the report has it that an "extortion attempt by street gangs" was the motive, and that one or two of the passengers in the minibus were the target. The shooting started when the driver pressed on through the attempted road block.

Here's the BBC version... Eight die as gunmen attack bus in Honduras. They give the motive as

(The motive for the attack) is being investigated.

Honduran newspaper the Herald said police were exploring possible links to drug traffickers.

The paper quoted unnamed sources as saying the gunmen were targeting a woman know only as "the doctor".

If this isn't pushing all your "there is more to this" buttons, then I'm not sure what more would be needed.

This was a premeditated ambush, targeting someone or someone's wife or someone's children or grandchildren... not ordinary highway robbery.

When who that was becomes public, I'll wager there will be a lot more to say about this.

Just asking for trouble

If one does consider doing something that just asks for trouble, it is pretty much incumbent upon those who are considered one's friends to speak up while the matter is still merely under consideration.

Here at CompHyp, I've been rather open in my support for the rule of law in Honduras. Supposedly, that makes me a friend. This is me, speaking up.

(Honduran President Porfirio) Lobo says he is working with prosecutors to find a way for (ousted President Manuel) Zelaya to return to the Central American country to face charges - but without taking him into police custody. Zelaya is accused of fraud, usurping powers and falsifying documents.

This is just begging for trouble.

The ALBA nations have been laying the groundwork for a campaign of internal dissent (and likely armed insurgency) in support of M. Zelaya for months now. The Ortega regime in Nicaragua hasn't even been particularly subtle about doing so.

Inviting M. Zelaya back into Honduras and *not* detaining him almost certainly will leave him free to figurehead another anti-government campaign.

On the face of it, this is just a bad idea.

Maybe, *maybe*, if enough conditions on his liberty of action can be put in place and enforced, then the promise of not remanding him directly into custody for the duration of a trial might be a way to encourage a voluntary return and surrender to justice... but that's probably a plan too clever by a half.

This is one of those rare cases where a trial-in-absentia (Honduras being a Civil Law jurisdiction) might be better than the proposed alternative.

Zelaya heads for the door

This is a breaking news item, but for now here's what is out there:

Deposed Honduran leader Manuel Zelaya has left the Brazilian embassy there and is heading into exile in the Dominican Republic, reports say.

Fully clothed. Just like last time.

Sadly, it looks like the deal to let him go has some kind of immunity offer... I hope it is at least contingent upon his shutting up and going away quietly... but I'd still rather see him stand trial.

***

ADDENDA

The AP has it that the deal lets him slide for treason, *but* leaves the door open to pursuing charges for "embezzlement in connection with $1.5 million in government funds".

Honduras: ALBA out; Zelaya out too?

This is half a catch-up-report for an item that came in while I was not here, but there's a report of a new twist to it all as well.

Back on January 13th, Honduras withdrew from ALBA, the "Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America" which serves as Hugo Chavez & Company's little pocket version of the Warsaw Pact. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

As long as we are talking of taking out the trash, it would be negligent to overlook this breaking (but not yet widely acknowledged... so believe it when you see it happen) item: The Presidential Spokesman of the Dominican Republic says a deal was signed on Wednesday to guarantee a safe-passage to exile for professional nuisance and former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, to be allowed on 28 January. That would be the day after the inauguration of Porfirio Lobo as President. Apparently the terms are that Dominican President Leonel Fernandez will come escort M. Zelaya from his tin-foil-lined room in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa as a "guest of the Dominican Republic".

I can't say this is terribly pleasing, if it is even going to happen, because...

(1) it puts Zelaya out of reach of prosecution *again*, which likely means he'll never be asked all those really unpleasant questions about treason, narco-trafficking, and looting the banks, and

(2) the last time he was exiled, it worked out so well. (( <-- sarcasm ))

Seriously, this man is a menace to Honduras as long as he has any liberty of action. He's kept his foreign team out beating the drums of insurrection against the Honduran state and his agitator-in-chief Patricia Rodas has been doing the Venezuela and satellite-states circuit keeping the Chavez-Zelaya link going...

...this will not end well if Zelaya is available to play the Quisling role for the Chavistas in the future.

111-14

...no to any reinstatement of Zelaya.

Best coverage of this at La Gringa's including a live 'blog of the proceedings up to the point of majority in opposition.

Here's hoping that this finishes the Zelaya nonsense and La Gringa can get back to her gardening.
((grin))

Election Day in Honduras

'tis the 29th of November; time to go to the polls to elect the next President of Honduras. Thankfully, that *can't* be M. Zelaya.

Here's the pre-election coverage from the BBC. Sadly, our friends at Angus Reid Global Monitor have no current polling data for this election, so we'll have to presume a strong chance for either of the leading candidates. The Beeb picks it like this:

The favourite to win is conservative Porfirio Lobo from the National Party, and Elvin Santos from the Liberal Party is considered his nearest rival.

I'll hedge and say that the Liberal Party has done a fine job of distancing themselves from Zelaya's supporters by holding firm in the interim under R. Micheletti; that might be enough for E. Santos to make it.

But what I hope for, and what I think we should all hope for, is that Honduras gets to choose their next President in a free and fair way. That's what the whole removal of Zelaya was about, after all.

Viva Honduras! Viva Democracia!

***

The best English-language source from inside Honduras on all this remains La Gringa's Blogicito. She's doing a great job monitoring what is on the local media, and what is heard in the street; a far better source than most of what is hitting the wire services. She also has links to lots of Spanish-language sources for those that can read or listen to them.

For summary information from a wide variety of sources, you can also look in on our other friend, Fausta's Blog (Honduras tab). Fausta covers lots of things, so I've taken the link directly to the sort for Honduras items for your convenience.

very, very distracted

There is a lot to cover going on out there right now, but in one of the unfortunate coincidences of life right now, I'm obliged elsewhere.

But...

Here are some reports and some very good writers you should spend a little time with, while I keep shoveling in the stables. (insert optimistic comment about finding a pony, *here*):

The ICC has opened the trial of two warlords from the 2003 fighting in Ituri, D.R. Congo, on war crimes charges. It is a particularly nasty set of charges, and Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has a very good case.

Also from the Congo, a report to the U.N. about MONUC and cooperating with the FARDC has been leaked... and it is one of those stories that cause one to question if there are any good guys in that fight. There are, but there are some really bad ones on both sides and that's where the problem lies right now.

Richard Fernandez (of Belmont Club reputation) has a superbly insightful piece on how the recent massacre in the southern Philippines came to be, and how it doesn't surprise experienced Philippines-watchers that it happened. There is no more-expert opinion out there on things political in the Philippines than R. Fernandez; he lived what he talks about on that topic.

Lastly, for now, *REMEMBER* 29.November is election day in Honduras... and the Zelaya-insurgents are intent on making a fight of it (and not just in the polling places). Look to La Gringa's Blogicito for first-class English-language reports from in-country as this all happens.

Thanks again, folks, and I'll be back to regular postings as soon as I can. Just need to get a little sleep first...

Speaking of deals that don't work...

Speaking of negotiated international deals to "resolve" constitutional crises in various places, there seems to be a *not* unexpected hitch in the implementation of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord in Honduras. The power-sharing deadline came, and the Micheletti government went ahead and has offered a grand coalition that includes all the viable political factions *except one*:

As the power-sharing deadline passed, Mr Micheletti said he had "finalised the process of confirming a unity government".

"Everybody, with the exception of Mr Zelaya, recommended Hondurans to lead the institutions of our country as part of the new government," he said.

Though Mr Zelaya had not submitted a list of names, Mr Micheletti said the government was "representative of a large ideological and political spectrum in our country and complies strictly with the agreement" signed last week.

Anyone who thinks that Manuel Zelaya has any intention of abiding by the agreement he signed is, given the obvious, clearly dreaming.

The danger remains that those dreams may yet be one of a Zelaya-supporting assault on the liberty of Honduras. They've tried almost everything else; they may be getting to the point of just casting aside all pretense of legitimacy and going for the armed-overthrow-of-the-nation route... which will require outsiders, as there simply isn't enough Zelaya-ista support for a successful insurgency to arise internally.

Watch where Patricia Rodas goes in the next few days; Watch the Nicaraguan border; and for goodness sake, start cooperating with the Honduran government again and bring down the smuggling aircraft that are constantly making it into Honduran territory. They likely are as not are the way the guns are being brought in.

Honduras: sold out

They (the Americans) forced an agreement.

Zelaya is supposedly coming back into power for four months.

Tom Shannon did the dirty work, and then...

Backers hugged Zelaya after hearing the news and one asked him to autograph a white cowboy hat resembling the one the deposed leader always wears.

The hat had already been signed by the top U.S. envoy for the Americas, Thomas Shannon, who led a delegation to Honduras this week to pressure the two sides to resolve the crisis after months of diplomacy failed to break the stalemate.

Hope you like that job you've got, Tom.

You've worked *so* hard to keep it.

Which is good, because you couldn't get another job with your reputation right now, big guy... unless Soros is hiring... or Zelaya... he's got lots of money and friends right now...

More on this, with sources, at Fausta's Blog and La Gringa's Blogicito.

***

Personal Note: This is the voice of disappointment speaking. What we are witnessing is the death of the concept of "Truth, Justice, and the American Way"... which isn't just Superman's credo, but was a way of seeing what was right in the world. The American government didn't always strive to achieve it, but those of us who saw the universal nature of the ideals behind that saying knew that working toward them was what was right, even if it wasn't ever exclusively "American". Days like today show just how far from those ideals the current American administration has gone.

New York Times and Reich, part 2

If you read this thread here at CompHyp, then you'll likely be pleased to see that on October 26th, the New York Times did finally print a version of the letter... except that it is actually a second letter written and submitted on the 21st.

They *should* have printed the original, but if Ambassador Reich is content with this publication (and he apparently is), then I shall leave it at that. It was nice to see that Mr. Dan Fisk got in his 2 cents on the original article as well... even though his letter sat since the 12th...

Honduras tries the ICJ route

They've filed a case at the International Court of Justice against Brazil for harboring M. Zelaya in their embassy in Tegucigalpa.

So far, Brazil sneers at the attempt:

Brazil said the case had no basis as the current government, led by Roberto Micheletti, was illegitimate.

"The de facto Honduran government has no legitimacy to lodge a lawsuit at the International Court of Justice," a Foreign Ministry spokesman in Brasilia said.

ICJ ruling are, on matters where both parties are not in concord as to filing the case, pretty much just beautiful words on clean paper. That said, anything that would make it less comfortable to be assisting Zelaya would be a win of some kind for Honduras.

Here's hoping for a quick provisional judgement.

What in Sam Hill... ?

One of my former instructors was a great proponent of the "stupid is more likely than malice" analysis of an apparently counterproductive course taken by some actor. The logic was that there are usually enough other signs of vile intent to confirm that as the cause of the action, and in the absence of those pure incompetence was a far more likely explanation for an action.

Yeah, I'll even ascribe to that as a general case.

So, when I find relentless counterproductive conduct by the U.S. State Department (and a certain NSC staffer) and an attempt by certain biased U.S. Senators to revise the truth about events in Honduras, I'd say its is time to make a judgement as to *WHY?* these acts of persistent idiocy are happening.

I'd like to hope that it is all because one political faction in the Obama administration, that one controlling Foreign Policy, is boundlessly incompetent... It would explain why they have misread Iran, mishandled the Bout extradition case in Thailand, stumbled publicly on negotiations with China and Russia, and generally upset most every alliance the U.S.A. is a part of...

...because *if it malice*, then some very, very bad things are happening.

So forgive me, Professor, but this time I will hope for stupid but plan as if it is malice. The cost of not assuming malice has become prohibitively high.

***

Addenda:

two more examples of the course being followed:

SecState Clinton in Pakistan, as observed by John Hannah (link via J. Hinderaker at Powerline).

An assessment of the U.S. role in the current IAEA negotiations with Iran, by Robert Kagan.

Things are *not* looking good, folks.

The New York Times wrongs Reich

One of the pleasant parts of doing this weblog is the associations one makes, and the associations that then follow. Ambassador Otto J. Reich would be one of those associations-of-the-second-degree.

Now Amb. Reich is a proper gentleman, and that means well able to take care of himself in a dispute, but when he lets on to colleagues that he has been wronged then it is time for us to stand up for him. Now is just such a time.

The New York Times published an article on October 8th of this year that misrepresents an interview with O. Reich, to which he rightfully takes strong exception...

But five days after he wrote a Letter to the Editor, it seems clear that the NYT has no intention of actually answering his letter nor printing it. Fine. That is their choice. This is mine.

Here is the Letter to the Editor:

To The Editor,
The New York Times
Dear Sir:

The October 8 article by Ginger Thompson “Leader Ousted, Honduras Hires U.S. Lobbyists” is erroneous, misleading, and thoroughly misrepresents the lengthy interview I gave her. Through innuendo, it implies that I am one of the aforementioned “lobbyists” hired by the Government of Honduras, and that I am behind the Congressional “hold” on two Obama Administration officials. Those allegations are false, as I repeatedly told her.

Though she says that I claim to not have lobbied, Thompson cleverly implies otherwise by associating my name with some who have lobbied. In fact, my name is the first that appears to document the article’s hypothesis. Ms. Thompson is so determined to “prove” that I communicated my views to the US Congress, apparently in what she thinks is some nefarious manner, that she misreports. For example, she states “For his part, Mr. Reich sent his thoughts to members of Congress by e-mail” and cites the following: “We should rejoice that one of the self-proclaimed “21st-century socialist” allies of Chávez has been legally deposed by his own countrymen.”

This quote is an excerpt from an article I published in National Review Online on September 28, with Thompson’s selection in italics, as follows: “The U.S. had nothing to do with Zelaya’s removal, and it should do nothing to force his return. Rather, we should rejoice that one of the self-proclaimed “21st-century socialist” allies of Chávez has been legally deposed by his own countrymen.” I did not send this “thought” to any member of Congress, as she states; instead it was published and freely available online.

Thompson further states that “… Reich said he had used his connections to push the agenda of the de facto government, led by Roberto Micheletti.” I said no such thing! I did say I believe the Obama Administration policy is wrong and I explained my opinion. I have not supported the “Micheletti agenda;” I have only criticized my own government’s misguided policies.

All my testimony, op-eds, articles and media interviews are my own doing. No one directs me, no one pays me (in fact, these efforts cost me money, as they take considerable time from my consulting practice) and no one else reviews my statements before they are published. I told Thompson that I do this because I see it as the duty of a citizen in a free society to dissent from his government’s policies when his conscience so dictates.

Finally, I told Thompson repeatedly that I oppose Congressional “holds" on nominees since as a several-times Presidential appointee I have been the subject of three such delays - one by Chris Dodd and two by Jesse Helms. None of this was mentioned by her. Indeed, there is another false implication that I am behind the holds of State Department nominees Arturo Valenzuela and Tom Shannon. Fortunately, both of the nominees are personal friends are *and know these allegations are false.

All the above is on the record and I urge you to print it in the interest of journalistic objectivity.

Sincerely,

Otto J. Reich

reproduced here by the expressed permission of Otto Reich Associates LLC, 16.Oct 2009. Editorial correction made at the * mark for clarity.

The Weekly N&C -- Special Edition

He only was Koh-operating

There has been a little bit of a stir in the media since Saturday’s Op-Ed piece in the Wall Street Journal by U.S. Senator Jim DeMint (R, South Carolina) regarding his fact-finding trip to Honduras last week… while most of what he tells of is simply the situation as it stands politically between the United States government and the Government of Honduras, one part has gathered attention:

In a day packed with meetings, we met only one person in Honduras who opposed Mr. Zelaya's ouster, who wishes his return, and who mystifyingly rejects the legitimacy of the November elections: U.S. Ambassador Hugo Llorens.

When I asked Ambassador Llorens why the U.S. government insists on labeling what appears to the entire country to be the constitutional removal of Mr. Zelaya a "coup," he urged me to read the legal opinion drafted by the State Department's top lawyer, Harold Koh. As it happens, I have asked to see Mr. Koh's report before and since my trip, but all requests to publicly disclose it have been denied.

Hm. That’s new.

Were there to be a legal opinion guiding the U.S. DeptState actions in this crisis, it would certainly be of note. Moreover, given well-presented legal arguments by such scholars as Miguel Estrada that the Government of Honduras acted fully within its Constitution in removing former-President Manuel Zelaya from office (although his then forcible exile was not), the opportunity to compare and contrast, if not contest the DeptState opinion would be exceptionally insightful as to why the Obama administration has taken the otherwise-difficult-to-explain course of action that it has to date.

Senator DeMint has not been able to see the “Koh legal analysis and Honduras Constitutional Report” as referenced by Ambassador Llorens, or even confirm its existence, he states. Well, this author has never let such little things as difficulty get in the way of doing his research… and out went the calls to some friends and old associates to see if a copy could be found.

Not.A.Chance.

Current lists of the nuclear permission codes are less closely held secrets than the Koh opinion, apparently.

But, in a wonderful moment of someone thinking through what it all meant *and telling me*, the entire matter became almost moot: It is a red herring. It may in fact be a ploy by Amb. Llorens perpetrated to deflect the Law Library of Congress Report on the Honduran Constitutional Law Issues regarding the removal of M. Zelaya from office.

Here’s what we do know:

The U.S. government response to the Honduran arrest of M. Zelaya was keyed off of a telephone call by the Zelaya regime’s Foreign Minister Patricia Rodas to the American Ambassador in Honduras, Hugo Llorens, claiming a violent overthrow of the government and all manner of abuses upon her person (none substantiated to date, by the by).

Within one hour of that telephone call, Dan Restrepo (Western Hemisphere advisor to the Obama National Security Council) was in action, directing the response. Within hours, he also had the Organization of American States queuing up an emergency meeting, which was then held scant hours later. This was followed by a media round up call by Restrepo to pre-selected favorable media to whom he laid down statements. (Notably, neither have those statements of June 28th held up to what evidence is out there, nor have subsequent statements by D. Restrepo and P. Rodas’ to the OAS and the media, been verified by any U.S. DeptState source. Many are simply unverifiable.)

Anyone notice time in there to get Harold Koh on the job to issue a legal opinion to guide DeptState’s course?

I didn’t think so.

This has been D. Restrepo’s show from the get-go; one that he went to a fair amount of trouble to keep out of the public eye for the first weeks of the situation, going so far as to insist on being “Administration Official #1” in those media briefings on background. It has only been since the Zelaya re-appearance and sequestration in the Embassy of Brazil in Tegucigalpa that D. Restrepo’s name has come out much at all… He showed up at the Americas Conference in Miami the first of this month and was tapped for an intererview by Andres Oppenheimer of the Miami Herald (the Herald was a co-sponsor of the conference, by the way). In that, the line taken was that “the President” calls it a coup.

That may be true now, but it very likely wasn’t so on day one.

It is also exceedingly likely that there was *no* legal opinion by H. Koh in hand on day one either.

Again, from one of those willing to talk to me:

Besides, Koh was asked for a legal analysis in June and again in July and released nothing to the Hill- ever. State Dept promised reports and 6 xxx said they were "too busy" and would get to it one day...

I’ll wager there is one now… but seeing the date it was issued is almost as important as the position it enumerates.

So why did Ambassador H. Llorens say such a thing to Senator DeMint?

Well…

It may well be that he thought he could sandbag a freshman Senator with a grand total of 10 years on Capitol Hill (Congress, 3 goes, before being elected to the Senate). His Foreign Affairs Committee staff is still pretty new at things, for example.

It may be that H. Llorens is desperately searching for any cover that will help him keep his job. He’s a hold-over, not an Obama appointee. One indication of this is that he’s been seen trolling around Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R, FL-18) begging support during the Congressional Delegation to Honduras… playing the fellow-Cuban-American card… and his being reminded in reply (paraphrase) “Fidel Castro also claims to be Cuban”…

The determined effort of those pleading the “I need to keep my job” argument also applies to any number of the regulars from DeptState involved in this Honduras matter. A surprising number of excuses are being made, privately. But there are others…

Senator John Kerry made it abundantly clear in his efforts to block the DeMint delegation from going to Honduras that any cooperation by DeptState for that trip was simply not going to happen. That DeMint managed to elude the blocking effort and get approval by other means actually does the first-term Senator credit, by the way. The entire pro-Obama faction in the Senate was lined up against his going.

So… to sum this all up:

Yes, there is reportedly –as stated by a sitting U.S. ambassador- a legal opinion out in DeptState land somewhere written by H. Koh regarding the removal of M. Zelaya from office by the Government of Honduras.

What it says, if its existence is ever confirmed, is of little importance. *When* he said it matters.

Because only by nailing down as a clear fact that an Advisor on the National Security Council with a history of undermining and playing for the other team was winging matters of state, playing on his own highly-placed status, for his own political constituent purposes (and those of his friends in far-away places), with neither deference to all the information readily available nor a constitutional role in setting policy for the State Department (that authority rests in the Presidency, via the Secretary of State), can the entire story of how the Obama administration ended up on the wrong side of the Crisis in Honduras begin to be told.

…and that is a story that needs to be told.

***

End Notes:

All footnotes are embedded as links in the text.

Private sources are known to this author, but choose to remain anonymous (for good reason).

The assertion as to Dan Restrepo’s “history of undermining and playing for the other team” specifically refers to his partisan acts rendering himself unsuitable for employment on the House Committee on International Relations by acting against the interests of then-Chairman Benjamin A. Gilman and the Committee at the behest of Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott. Citation: Letter of February 20th, 1996, from Congressman Gilman to Congressman Hamilton (D. Restrepo’s employer) detailing the malfeasance and requiring his removal from Committee activity. Result: Quiet exile for Mr. Restrepo.

Fair Disclosure: This author is no fan of Parliamentary Diplomacy… the act of a representative of the legislature running off to engage in their own diplomatic efforts. I am against it when it happens in the U.K., in the U.S., and even here in Japan. The business of diplomacy is that of the Executive. I am only willing to cut Senator J. DeMint some slack this time because (a) He proposed no diplomatic initiatives of his own on his trip, it really was “fact-finding”; and (b) He is on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, including a place on the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on International Operations and Organizations, Human Rights, Democracy and Global Women's Issues. Both the Democracy matters and the role of the OAS in this Crisis are within his purview.

Micheletti's misstep, and its reversal.

The government of Honduras, trying to manage having former president Manuel Zelaya sitting in the Brazilian Embassy but stirring up trouble all over the country, made a bad move. Not quite as bad a move as letting Zelaya out of custody in the first place, but a bad move; The executive ordered a suspension of civil liberties.

The only possible good to come of a move like that was shutting down the Zelaya-backing elements of Radio Globo and Channel 36 TV. Fine, but it could have been done differently.

The Congress of Honduras saw all this as bad as well, and *ordered* the restoration of civil liberties. Micheletti is suitably chastised, and the executive order has been recinded.

Some evil coupsters, huh? Still obeying civil authority goes a long way toward making claims of legitmacy stick. That is actually of value now as even the U.S. government is calling Zelaya's stunt "foolish".

Fausta has all about this, in more detail. She has also posted her "Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean" for this week, which remains my favorite overview of public media on Latin America matters. Thank you, Fausta. You're the best.

Oh, that was the word: prætentious

Not much else to say about the performance of various international organizations during the U.N. General Assembly round this last week.

The OAS had already made sure Honduras's de jure government under R. Micheletti was not offered an invitation to the confab... although, amusingly at this point, pretender-to-the-executive M. Zelaya is a bit occupied and couldn't make it to pick up his invite from his pal M. d'Escoto Brockmann (whose term as UNGA President was over as of the 15th of Sept. The only man who could make a Libyan UNGA President look good...)

In the Africa department, the AU was mostly harmless this time, but SADC continues to show its appalling sense of what is proper by applauding the man who has ignored SADC-sponsored judicial rulings against his regime (that would be "Red Bob" Mugabe and his gang of thieves) while allowing some SADC members to undermine an invitation to the Rajoelina junta of Madagascar. Whether that invitation should have been offered is a matter of debate, but having done such...

The Democratic Republic of Congo, speaking at the General Assembly on Friday on behalf of the Southern African Development Community, which suspended Madagascar after the coup, asked that Andry Rajoelina be barred from addressing the gathering.

The motion was carried by a vote on the Assembly floor after chaotic scenes which led to most member states abstaining.

...then this is simply an act of political pretense of the most foul kind.

The United Nations General Assembly. Living down to your expectations at every opportunity.