Showing posts with label North Africa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Africa. Show all posts

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Some thoughts...

Some thoughts...

and an outburst

...about losing four Americans including Chris Stevens (U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens; Libya) in the Benghazi Consulate Attack, and the current protest / assault against American interests sweeping across various countries-in-turmoil.

Yes. I did wait for a couple of days to get as many different reports in as I could before commenting.


First the outburst:

DAMN IT! Avoidable; it seems as of information coming out today, predictable; and absolutely unforgivable that an Ambassador was in a low-security Consulate in a risk-area at ten o'clock at night with only his traveling (and likely doing more than one job) Diplomatic Security close-team at the location.

Now the thoughts:

There should currently be a search for at least two replacement Ambassadors going on in Foggy Bottom. The public conduct of the US EMB CAIRO has been shameful and I don't care if the Ambassador was out and he left Public Affairs in the hands of underlings. Command Responsibility and all that.

While we're at it, this sort of multi-level screw up should fall on the Administration, especially the SecState. Given the crew currently running the regime in D.C., that's not going to happen voluntarily, but it should.

There can't be, for many reasons, any public recognition of some of the people who kept the 37 Americans that survived the Benghazi Consulate Attacks (multiple wave complex assault; it was not just a riot, folks), it is probably ok in the near future to hang some public "thank-you" on the small detachment ...reportedly U.S. Marines, reportedly only eight men... that were rushed in from the Embassy in Tripoli and were essential in holding things together until a proper rescue / evacuation could be done. Same goes for the loyal-to-the-Libyan-government troops that did help... yes, there were some.

The apology from the Libyan government and their promise to bring the attackers to justice is one that should be accepted. It also should be waved in the face of any local official that interferes with the effort to bag the attackers... oh and while one is at it, do find out why the local Libyan "guards" helped the attackers continue their assault... and bag them all too.

Egypt, specifically "President" Mursi, on the other hand... need to pretty quick be doing the old Chinese Kowtow crawl to the steps of the White House for their role in actively promoting the fraud that led to the Cairo Riot and Perimeter Breach... or a reply somewhat similar to that made to the Boxer Rebellion is entirely in order.

Karzai in Afghanistan, jumping on the "Outrageous Outrage" bandwagon, needs to remember his place in the order of things... or else.

In fact, the entire "Outrageous Outrage" as a political mechanism by the leadership of an chronically insecure social theocracy needs a little rough treatment by the civilized world right now. Yes, I know it is "your custom" to be so outraged (presuming one is a hardened Islamist; no such claim applies against Sufi or other Muslims that are also victimized by the fanatics)... might I remind one and all of the British Colonial-era reply as to the Hindu practice of Sati (suttee), paraphrased as: "You may burn her, as is your custom, but then we will hang you for murder, as is our custom."

The timing of all these events ~ Tunisia; Libya; Egypt; Yemen; the provocations in Afghanistan and other places ~ is not coincidental. A concerted effort was made to get the "insult to the Prophet" translated into Arabic and publicized juuuuuust in time for the eleventh day of September, and then it was pushed out in the various local media anywhere someone could be found to take offense.

There is a real possibility that the original "movie" that is the supposed excuse for all the "Outrageous Outrage" justification mentioned above is not legit. Several serious questions about the main person behind making the film are being raised... like a history of criminal fraud and false identities... and the claims of Jewish or Coptic interests being behind the film production are looking pretty fake too (at least as of today). In the old school, we used to call these sort of inside-the-opponent-country propaganda jobs "Active Measures"... and I'd say this case is similar enough to bear a whole lot of investigation.

Lastly...

It is helmets and shovels time for any American, (or European, or Japanese) diplomatic presence anywhere within reach of the fanatics. Shutter the Consulates and Offices and get everyone back inside the Embassy. Dig in deep, fellows, and aim true when they come over the wall. Because Friday is the day of prayer... and the frothing fanatics will be doing everything they can in their sermons to stir the masses into doing something very very stupid.

***

I am reminded (thank you, Glenn Reynolds!) that the paraphrase above re: Sati is more correctly rendered as The Napier Response:
"Be it so. This burning of widows is your custom; prepare the funeral pile. But my nation has also a custom. When men burn women alive we hang them, and confiscate all their property. My carpenters shall therefore erect gibbets on which to hang all concerned when the widow is consumed. Let us all act according to national customs."

  Welcome Legal Insurrection readers! Thank you, Professor; It's great to be the Post of the Day.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Sinai issues

In the wake of the insurgent terrorist attack that killed more than a dozen Egyptian Army soldiers at a camp on the Sinai-Israel border, the Egyptian Army was compelled to act... and did so by remilitarizing a significant part of the Sinai and then whacking a fair number of the resident and transient terrs. So far, so good. I have it on good authority that some number of (older) M-60 MBTs were part of the Egyptian Army force sent in, and that there was open communication with Israel to forstall any concerns with that being a violation of the terms of the Camp David Peace Accords.

Well, some time has passed, and as I've mentioned (see previous thread post) there are signs that the Egyptian 'government' and military aren't on the same page any longer... and now there are some concerns.

...entirely warranted concerns, in my opinion.

Not a good time to be stuck out on dust, checkpoints and rowboat duty. Might be time for Task Force Sinai to be... shall we say "re-enforced". Either that or get the hell ready to bug out...

Monday, August 13, 2012

Freedom for Egypt: Not happening.

It's not happening.

Here's Barry Rubin's take on the naked power-grab by al-Ikhwan (The Muslim Brotherhood) as of early yesterday: Egypt: There goes....

He's got it right.
This is a coup. Mursi is bound by no constitution. He can do as he pleases unless someone is going to stop him. And the only candidate–the military–is fading fast, far faster than even we pessimists would have predicted.
If President Mursi gets away with these moves, say goodbye to the last hope of Egypt being anything but a conquest for al-Ikhwan.


Told you so (diplomatic appointments edition)

Long time readers of CompHyp may vaguely recall that this author was to-say-the-least unimpressed with the appointment of J. Scott Gration as the American (Obama Administration) Special Envoy to Sudan.

Here's a little reminder from back in 2009 as to how deserved that lack of regard was: Gration gets the proper treatment.

Well, low and behold, the years go by... Gration got a 'promotion' to a regular ambassadorship (to Kenya)... and...

Close Obama ally rated worst ambassador in the State Department.

Read the whole thing, please.

Then for those reading who have any say in such matters... let's not be doing this again, shall we?


Sunday, July 1, 2012

Sunday Morning Push

And then... and then I was busy. The wrong kind of busy. Not sure it is going to be better tomorrow, either. Stay tuned.

What got missed last week:

. Martin got the handshake. Elizabeth II was in Northern Ireland for part of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations. That's got to be an Only-Nixon-could-go-to-China moment for the Provos... Hope his own partisans don't hold it against him.

.. John Roberts engaged in one of the great judicial manuevers in the history of the SCOTUS. He was right about one thing, at least: It is not the court's job to save the electorate from bad laws passed by their representatives.

... Syria, Yemen, and Mali are all still hot zones in the Arab Spring (a year later and looking nothing like it did) and the GWOT. No coincidence, that.

.... Egypt elected Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood (yeah, he had a different party name; same difference) as President. SCAF (the Army government) tried to set the table by dissolving Parliament and taking over the new Constitution-writing, but even if that man is just a figurehead... ho boy... he's going to be trouble.

..... and lots more.

OK, your turn. This is an Open topic thread.

The usual rules all apply; most importantly: Play Nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Freedom for Egypt: but first...

Egypt remains in turmoil, and as usual much of that is self-inflicted.

The grand hopes of the last year's uprising; the sudden abandonment of Hosni Mubarak's government, first to 'people power', but then to the political wolves; a central government headed for bankruptcy, under the unsteady leadership of the SCAF military council; the murderous turn by the newly encouraged Islamist movement against the Coptic minority, and November's parliamentary sweep by the terrible twins of Egyptian Islamism... al-Ikhwan (the Muslim Brotherhood) and the Salafi Call movement; Now comes the prize ~ the Presidential election.

But first...

Eleven killed in Egypt clashes.
CAIRO, May 2 (Reuters) - Eleven people were killed and more than 160 wounded near Egypt's Defence Ministry on Wednesday after armed men assaulted protesters demanding an end to army rule, prompting two Islamist candidates to suspend their presidential election campaigns.

Unidentified "thugs" armed with guns or batons attacked demonstrators who included hundreds of ultraconservative Salafi Islamists protesting at the exclusion of their candidate from this month's vote, state news agency MENA reported.

The violence casts a deep shadow over the presidential election due on May 23 and 24, with a run-off in June, and highlights the fragility of Egypt's transition to democracy, which has been punctuated by violence and political bickering.

Security and medical sources gave a toll of 11 dead and over 160 wounded in the clashes outside the Defence Ministry in central Cairo's Abbasiya district. The fighting raged on unabated through the morning, but subsided in the afternoon.
The demonstration was by rabidly anti-military-government groups, on the doorstep of the Defence Ministry, and the Army took six hours to bother to break things up. Not a big surprise, that.

Here's the BBC version of the story. They use the movement names and political party names of the two big factions. Here's a help:
al-Ikhwan(Muslim Brotherhood) = Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) leading the Democratic Alliance bloc.
Al-Da‘wa Al-Salafiyya (Salafi Call) = Hizb al-Nour (Al-Nour Party; Nour) leading a Salafist bloc.
There are other parties... they contribute only puny representation in the Parliament. Anyway, back to the BBC:
Unknown assailants have killed at least 11 people protesting against Egypt's ruling generals near the defence ministry in Cairo, officials say.

The attackers set on them at dawn using rocks, clubs, firebombs and firing shotguns. The protesters retaliated, beating some of the assailants.

Soldiers and police have now stopped the clashes, but the intervention came nearly six hours after they began.

Two leading presidential candidates have suspended campaigning in protest.

Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh, an independent Islamist, and Mohammed Mursi, head of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), criticised the authorities' response.

In addition, the FJP and the Salafist Nour party, which together control 70% of the seats in parliament, decided to boycott a meeting with the ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces (Scaf).
Given the exclusion of Nour's candidate for the Presidential election holds up, here's what remains of the front of the pack:
The generals have promised to hand over power to a civilian administration by the end of June, after a presidential election that they say will be free and fair.

The election's first round is scheduled for 23 and 24 May, with a run-off vote for the top two candidates expected on 16 and 17 June.

The race seems to have narrowed to a contest between Mr Aboul Fotouh, Mr (Mohammed) Mursi (of the FJP), and the former head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa.
Notes in () by this author.

Amr Moussa? oh, him.

This is going to be ugly.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Old and New

...media, that is.

As we do mostly World Affairs here, both of these mentioned are related to that.

First, an example of the good a major network can do by sending (or allowing to go on their own) a well-known journalist (or reporter, or presenter) out to cover an out-of-way and frankly difficult story:

Greta Van Sustren in the Nuba Mountains. Lots of related posts up and down her 'blog.

h/t to CompHyp friend Adam Housley (who, like GVS, is at FOXNews)

and...

Then, an absolutely wonderful telling of the good done by New Media assets... individuals or acting in concert... to help a cause succeed. 'Fighting Keyboardists' if you will, but not in model of the old (joking about) 'Chairborne Infantry'. Again, these are people who either got out there or got connected with those out there and provided invaluable information support:

People Power 2.0, How civilians helped win the Libyan information war.

Over the years we've seen some amazing individual efforts by 'bloggers working and communicating with efforts far from home to try and do some good. Jane Novak's awesome efforts about Yemen over the years come to mind (although she's been off-line this last month; hope she is well). The cooperation we got here at CompHyp from other folks during the Honduras autogolpe was another example.

With a bit of luck, we'll be doing more for the good, soon.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Now it is official

Earlier in the week here at CompHyp there was a thread titled Declaration in all but name.

Now it is official.

Sudan declares war on South Sudan:
Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, Thursday declared war on South Sudan, vowing to topple its government.
We've seen some similar conflicts recently; Ethiopia-Eritrea have a persistent border conflict, but... that's not being fought over a series of oil fields that are *vital* to the wealth of both parties.

This fight is going to be ugly.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Declaration in all but name

Declaration of War, that is.

The BBC reports Sudan has declared South Sudan an enemy state.
Sudanese MPs have voted unanimously to brand South Sudan "an enemy".

"The government of South Sudan is an enemy and all Sudanese state agencies have to treat her accordingly," the resolution said.

A Khartoum information ministry official told the BBC the move was linked to South Sudan's seizure last week of the Heglig oil field.

The South had accused Sudan of launching attacks on its territory from the frontier oil field.
UPI has a similar report. Scheduled peace talks as part of the border demarcation requirements and the 2005 agreement that led to South Sudan's independence have been cancelled.

The only question at this point is whether either nation has the means to actually prosecute a war, and over how wide a front.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Sudan repeatedly attacks South Sudan

So much for the (paraphrase) "brotherly separation" upon South Sudan's independence...

At least five separate incidents of crossborder fire since Monday by the Sudan Army and Air Force targeting everything from Southern troop positions and camps to oil fields.

The al-Bashir regime continues to demonstrate just how worthless agreements with them are, whether regarding internal (Darfur, Kordofan, Blue Nile) or external (South Sudan) issues. Well, unless you are PRChina and the agreement is about buying oil... or selling guns...

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Mali Army Revolt

It looks a lot like a coup, except it isn't (yet)... no clear word on where the Presidential party is, but the troops haven't taken them although some ministers of the government have been. It certainly is an absolutely crippling revolt by elements of the Mali Army.

The reasons (officially) include the usual laundry list of claims against the regime, but one stands out: The Army has been engaged in a nasty fight against Tuareg insurgents who have lots and lots of arms left over from their days helping out on the side of bad in the North African crises, specifically Libya. The Mali Army forces were sent north to take them on with less-than-complete kit ...not that the regular Mali Army arsenal is anything to brag about... and have gotten handed defeat after defeat. Morale in the ranks of what has been a modestly respectable standing army collapsed and their blame focused on the Defense Ministry.

This matters, besides the usual reasons of not wanting rebellious troops rampaging through one's city, because the nexus between West and North Africa has been one of the few areas of growing strength for al-Qaeda-linked Islamist militancy (building on, if not supplanting, the usual bandit culture of the back country areas).

Losing the assistance of Mali in that fight, even for a short while, is bad for all of us.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Freedom for Tunisia: a ray of hope (Updated)

Appropriately happening on the anniversary of independence from France (colonial), a significant demonstration of secular political power was seen on the streets:
TUNIS, March 20 (Reuters) - Thousands of secular Tunisians marched in the capital on Tuesday, the country's independence day, to show their rejection of growing calls by conservative Salafi Islamists to transform post-revolutionary Tunisia into an Islamic state.
Would that the nationalist and other non-religious parties had thought things through better before the election, they probably had the numbers to keep even Ennahda (the most moderate of the Islamist political parties) from winning a plurality... had they only formed a united front... but it means that the minor secular parties and the two secular parties that are in coalition with Ennahda have some of the time they need to keep organizing and build strength.

Given how some of the other "Arab Spring" revolts have turned out, to date, there is reason to believe they are going to need all the strength they can muster.

***

Update:

Just to show how important this is, here's an example of what they are up against politically: Salafists rally last Friday. Yup. Those are al-Qaeda banners in there amongst the traditional ones.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Hold in the East, Win in the West

A Freedom for Libya thread.

The celebrations have started, albeit a bit prematurely, in Libya's capital city of Tripoli.

With that underway, it seems time to sum up how it (at least in the main) happened:

The fight in the East, shielding the TNC rebel government in Benghazi, was mostly a distraction once the line could be held. So long as Sirte remained (and *still remains*) a regime stronghold, there could be no drive on the center of power from Cyrenaica.

The fight in and around Misrata (Misurata) on the coast in the West was more pivotal, and much dirtier and protracted, but again mostly a fixing action... something that drew the regime to fight. Doing that near the coast meant they could be punished by NATO air and naval assets, but not likely ever to be a springboard to an attack on Tripoli. That would be trying to rush the front door.

But...

...a determined effort by (mostly) Berber rebels in the Nafusa Mountains won against the regime on their home ground and *that* opened the side door to Tripoli. The campaign moved to the coastal plain on 13.August and yesterday, the 21st, the show moved to the big city.

Congratulations to the Berbers, to the TNC, and a quiet tip of the hat to French and German embedded efforts to hold up NATO's end of the bargain.

Now let's see if they can bag the rest of the Qaddafi family and put an end to the war stage of this revolution.

Monday, May 23, 2011

Abyei burns

It looks like al-Bashir's rump-Sudan isn't waiting for any further possibilities of losing more territory by popular secession:
The Sudanese town of Abyei has been set on fire, with gunmen looting property, the UN says.

The town and surrounding area are claimed by both Khartoum and by South Sudan, set to become independent in July. The town was captured at the weekend by northern troops.
Captured, after what is looking more and more like a Gleiwitz Incident-style excuse for Northern reoccupation.

Then, they turned loose the thugs.
Some 20,000 people, almost the whole population of the town, had fled, aid agency Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) told the BBC.
If the North-aligned tribal raiders (mostly Arab Misseriya) have their way about it, there won't be much if anything for the expelled (mostly Dinka Ngok) residents to come back to.

The U.N. mission in Sudan (UNMIS) has issued their customary sternly-worded rebuke.

Friday, May 13, 2011

60 days...

Why is it that I doubt that...

. the Obama administration will comply with the "60 Days" part of the War Powers Resolution?

.. they care one whit as to gaining any meaningful outcome in Libya other than one accomplished by others?

... Congress will press the matter when the resolution is ignored?

.... even given cause, a case suitable to advance to the Supreme Court regarding the constitutionallity (or lack thereof) of the WPR of 1973 will ever see the light of day?

saaaaaa.

Monday, April 18, 2011

sooper kewl - but...

It's one of my favorite harps on people in "Western" governments, how things clandestine ...supposedly only to be known by people in government responsible for things clandestine... have a bad habit of showing up in distinctly not-clandestine places like the newspapers.

Oh, sometimes it is just that the activity wasn't really that secret... or just a little bit so... see the latest Wikileaks troublemaking for one example, or note that folks in the U.S. DeptState are often too willing to say things to blow their own horns... but the worst ones are usually from insiders with political or media agendas acting as "off-the-record" sources. Here's an excerpt from Greyhawk at Mudville Gazette in a recent well-presented article on the Libya Intervention:
That news prompted more squawking about "al Qaeda members among the rebels" - but in the meantime other reporters asked the real question that that response made obvious, but that so many missed: Wait, we have intel guys on the ground? Again, the best answer would have been a simple explanation of some of the many reasons why turning enemies into allies is a good idea, instead we got (shhhh... off the record, of course - and not in these words) "oh stop worrying - this has been a CIA op from the get-go. The boss authorized it before the first bomb fell." (Um, shhhh... that sounds totally sooper kewl - but saying it was a really a super bad idea.)
Bold by me, author comments in parentheses in the original.

There are a host of reasons why much of the inner workings of diplomacy and espionage intelligence activities are generally not topics of conversation, even in peacetime... even between 'friends'... in a time of conflict you can multiply those reasons by a couple orders of magnitude. But, of all that, one thing stands out:

When those things about what "we" are doing get out in public, it paints a target on the people "we" are working with... and sometimes on our operatives as well.

Word gets around about that, pretty quick.

Not many folks remain willing to help our side when doing so borders on the suicidal.

So... please...

those of you in the Trade: Keep secrets secret. That means not only not running your mouth to people outside the operation, but also not violating compartmentalization by leaving bits of operational details in low-security locations.

those of you in the Media: Show at least a little sense about what you publish. Save it up; it'll make a heck of a book you can be famous for writing *after the operation is long over*.

There's a reason for the old admonishment about "not until after 5 and 10"... to not even consider discussing an operation until one has been separated from the Trade for at least 5 years and that the operation have been over for at least 10 years. The bad guys out there have long memories, you see.

Lives, our friend's lives, our people in the field's lives, depend on it.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

I knew it seemed too good...

There are a lot of jokes about "too good to check" out there.

Well maybe, when the Arab League was part of the call for a no-fly zone in Libya, somebody should have checked.

. The Arab League is historically an anti-Western alliance. Specifically anti-Israel, but more than willing to have voiced troubling opinions pretty much any time Western governments are drawn into any Middle Eastern trouble. They certainly were no help at all in Lebanon in the 1980's, for one example.

.. The Qaddafi regime in Libya has never abandoned its Arab Nationalist credentials. Sure, he played the "we are African" card all the time in the AU, especially when Moammar viewed it as an extension of his petty empire, and he had his fallings out with other Arab leaders, but the Arab League never really turned against him... until, apparently, this time.

... There are elements always present in the Arab League that spend their time looking for any opportunity to get a foot in the door on matters in the unresolved portions of the Palestine Mandate. Any opportunity.

So, no one should be surprised in the slightest that *this* is their latest scheme:
The Arab League on Sunday announced during a special meeting in Cairo that it plans to press the UN to impose a no-fly zone over Gaza amid an escalation in violence in the area, AFP reported.

Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa said he plans to present the proposal to the UN Security Council, the report said.
I knew it seemed too good when they seemed to be making a reasonable request to intervene in Libya; Reasonable requests and the Arab League have simply never coexisted in the past.

There is always an angle.

Always.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Priceless

How does the credit card company advertisement go...?

Sub-Saharan Mercenaries: a few hundred dollars a day, tops.

Russian-built multiple rocket launchers: a couple hundred thousand a pop.

A Nicaraguan career-misanthrope and fixture of the international blame-America set as your new U.N. envoy: priceless.

priceless = comedy gold in this case.

Way to go on the "buy some respect" move there, Moammar.

Freedom for Libya: Back and Forth

The fight remains well and truly on, and the loyalist fighting force gets the best of it anytime they aren't in the Intervention Coalition's bombsights.

That means, for the east and midcoastal region, the battles are following fairly closely one of the axiomatic courses of North African warfare: it looks about like a soccer (football) match between two loosely coached teams, with guns... lots of rushes half-a-field-length followed by desperate retreats to protect one's own "goal net", that being in this case one's base of supply. Like said sport, the only way to reliably secure victory is to tighten up he coaching discipline and make well-ordered moves of position and control to advance into the hostile zone. For now, it is pretty clear that only one side has the potential of doing that... and sadly, it's not the squad I'm cheering for.

In the regions closer to Tripoli, and out west, it has been almost too easy for the Loyalists... with one exception: Misrata. The rebels are still besieged mightily and at great distress, but they are at least contesting control of the central part of the city. For how much longer, I simply have no way to judge.

The political machinations continue, with some key defections from the regime and some public meetings designed to make it look like the Intervention is a united effort. There has even been talk of setting aside the arms embargo in part to allow weapons and direct support to the rebel forces. There is also a "yes we are / no we aren't" game being played by some Western politicians as to whether covert assets are in the field... cute of them to be playing politics with the lives of 'disposable people', isn't it?

This won't all be resolved until either (a) regime loyalists decide to stop being loyalists... and put daggers in the backs of the whole Qaddafi family, or; (b) one or more of the nations in the Intervention Forces decide to toss diplomatic niceties in the trash and goes all-in to win this thing for the Rebellion, or; (c)... actually, there is no (c). Letting Qaddafi and kin survive, either in power or in comfortable exile, is simply an invitation for unending trouble.

So hang on to your hats, folks. This is going to be a rough ride.

***

BBC World's daily live coverage can be found *here*, but be aware it is not operated 24 hours a day, nor is it continuous. They archive it at the end of each day.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Freedom for ... a lot of places.

You are probably watching / reading about the Libya Intervention, and you've likely got the sense that all these Tunisia-Egypt-(a lot of places) Uprisings might just be connected... you'd be right, with the exception of Bahrain which appears to be as much external destabilization as a genuine rising.

Here are two more places to watch, one old news and one very very new on the scene:

Yemen: The uprising there has been fueled as much by the new mood as by the old issues of the North-South divide. The tide is running solidly against the regime now, with even ranking military officers (and co-tribalists of President Saleh) going over to the insurrection. Saleh himself seems to be just trying to get favorable terms under which to leave... another good student of the great Arab Nationalists, he. No need to stick around for the lamppost party after the change in management comes...

Syria: The threat to the Assad regime started slowly this time, and was met with the usual crackdowns and arrests, but... it is still growing. More telling, neither of the traditional opponent groups to the regime are in the picture. The splits are tribal, sectarian, and pragmatic now. (Driving Syria's Druze community into opposition was a particularly clumsy move by the regime.) If that means a significant portion of the State Security apparatus is now at risk of falling in with the rising, then there is a chance that al-Hurra (Arabic: the condition of being free; specifically the opposite of enslaved) may come to Syria.

If only...

May this wind continue to blow, and that even far Iran feels it.

***

Web Sources Reminder:

Besides the major and local media, which may be beyond your ability to judge for veracity (or to read!), here are a couple analysts and a source for in-region media reports that I recommend without reservation:

Your best source for analysis and understanding of matters Yemeni: Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation.

A very good and informed source for the same on Iran and Middle Eastern matters, although of a well-intended bias (that I agree with): Michael Ledeen at Faster, Please! on Pajamas Media.

Original Source Material can also be found in great abundance and translated reliably at MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute. (link is to their 'blog. Homepage has original source video and more.)