Chen gets out

The New York Times has a reporter on the flight with Chen Guangcheng and his family to the U.S.A.

Scarborough Shoal (2)

It isn't over.

It isn't even close to over.

It might get worse.

Grammaticas on China 'Banging the War Drum'.

Key Point:

The odd thing here is that the Philippine navy consists of just one proper ship and that is an ancient US Coast Guard cutter which is hardly a match for China's navy, as this online commentary by "The Comparativist" makes clear.

The Comparativist writes: "I think this is happening because the Philippines is so weak. The Chinese government can beat the war drums all they want, and as loud as they want, and no war is going to happen. It's akin to bullying someone in a wheelchair that you know can't punch back."

...

But there are dangers here too. The president of the Philippines has tweeted this statement this week, making clear that the Philippines believes America will help protect it from any Chinese aggression. So a dispute could lead to a very tense situation.

(original contains several source links)

There is one, and only one, brake on PRChina's ambition in this case, and that is predicated upon something not mentioned above:

It does not matter if the Government of the Philippines believes the U.S.A. will help protect it.

It matters if the Government of the People's Republic of China believes the U.S.A. will help protect the Philippines.

Do they?

Door Number Two

When needing to depart an authoritarian country (or any other country with an even remotely competent border control) without permission, there are some things that are basic to the task that have to happen. Because they are so basic, they are also what the authorities watch for (again, presuming competence) as signs one might be about to skip:

Having a place to go. ~ At least the barest of certainty needs to be known as to whether the place you eventually want to end up will let you in and let you stay. Escaping to Malaysia when you are about to be charged for political/religious crimes in Arabia *is not a win move*.

Having something as a gift to your new hosts. ~ Always nice to bring a present when one is about to impose on an acquaintance. Large troves of narco-terrorist documents make a particularly nice gift to American or EU host countries. Caution: While historically, knowing how to build ballistic missiles or make biological weapons was a sure way to get welcomed, these days that all is now rather less appreciated in the USA and Europe. (Might be just the thing if one wants to defect to Iran... but who the heck would...?)

Do see to your family before making travel plans ~ While condemning one's entire family to punishment and/or murder might be a goal in rare cases, most individuals trying to flee a country they reside in are not particularly interested in leaving family behind. It's hard on the family and, given both the brutality involved in authoritarian police states and the harsh work of most counter-espionage/counter-defection practices, it's hard on the defector. Rather than receiving the usual blackmail or simply living with the knowledge that prisoners in North Korean labor camps are not provided for by the state, it is far better to have made sure anyone whose welfare might influence one's serene mood of departure to have already been bundled over the border, at least out of reach of the country of departure's forces in the short term.

Lastly, do chose a country that might actually help you get out, or at least won't sell you out by agreeing to a deal that no reasonable person would believe the other side will stick to. ~ Since you, the would-be defector, are the key person in any defection attempt... unless you can slip the country on officially allowed business and then ditch your minders... you are probably jumping an Embassy wall somewhere in this process. The Americans and the French were time-tested favorites, but times change. Just any foreign embassy simply will not do. You need one that will (1) arrange something to sneak you in, or at least not shoot you when you cross the line; (2) at least make an effort to not mention you are inside said embassy; (3) have some motivation or sense of decency that encourages them to help you out rather than throw you back; and lastly (4) have some competence at actually getting you out of the country, whether by hook, crook, military escort to a waiting plane, or more diplomatic means. Put Canada at the top of that list generally, Republic of Korea is particularly good in Beijing, but several other nations are more than able and have a history of success... but do check the current administration of said country before throwing in with them. In the old days, nothing ruined your otherwise perfect plan to sleep over in Spaso House than discover Gerald Ford was no longer President of the USA. Same applies more generally in recent times.

So, to all of you out there planning on fleeing tyrany's grasp, here's to your successful defection... but do remember all of the above and if your situation changes while you are working up your get away...

... you'd better pick Door Number Two.

Scarborough Shoal

There's a problem down south...

...the Philippines Navy caught eight PRChinese fishing vessels looting taking catch along the Scarborough Shoal area of the South China Sea. They made a boarding and examination, finding full holds of illegally (by everyone else's rules other than the PRC) taken catch, but before arrests and confiscations could be made, two PRC "Observation Vessels" intervened. The resulting standoff has gone on...

More, with analysis, at EagleSpeak.

...and today, some changes happened. A Philippines Coast Guard vessel arrived, allowing the warship to back off a bit, and there are reports of "diplomatic" activities. Yeah, I bet; real diplomatic of the PRC about such matters... They have reportedly sent a third vessel and I'll wager it isn't a parley gig.

Do note the maps in both Eagle1's post and the BBC link... the lines labeled "UNCLOS EEZ"... and the other lines marked "Chinese claims".

The ol' one-two

Here we go again: NorKs being NorKs.

North Korea has moved its "satellite launcher" ballistic missile test into launch position, on track for a launch between 12 and 16.April.

North Korea is also reported to be likely in the final stages of preparing a third nuclear test explosion at the same site as previous fizzles... er... tests.

OK, to quote another thread, so much for negotiations.

Open question to the UNSC, the United Nations Command in Korea, and to the governments of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States: So what are you going to do about it?

Further open question to Russia and the PRChinese: What are you going to do about it, or will you let this get hung on you for aiding and abetting?

Sunday Morning Push

It's been a very good week here, both 'blogging and working, thanks to the efforts of some very good friends. I remain grateful to you, ladies and gentlemen.

Following up some earlier threads here at CompHyp:

The Royal Malaysian Navy made it two-for-two this week against the pirates of Somalia with a successful interception and a lively shooting match that bagged all the attackers.

The Central Bank of West Africa will have a new chief, and that cuts off another point of support for de facto President L. Gbagbo of Côte d'Ivoire. He may yet be pushed out of power without a military intervention, but nothing is resolved yet.

The commentary here on American B. Rhodes' ill-considered remarks to P.R. Chinese media about the Senkaku Islands matter has been picked up in the 'blogosphere. Special thanks again to Professor Jacobson at Legal Insurrection for making it the Post of the Day there.


So now it's your turn. Here's your Open thread for Sunday.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

No Progress... No Surprise.

The Istanbul round of the P5+G negotiations (the five UNSC Permanent Members and Germany) with Iran over nuclear proliferation has ended with no progress. The two reasons for the failure can be found in the same quote from the BBC article:

EU foreign policy chief Baroness Ashton, who led the international team, said Iran had come to the talks with pre-conditions.

So long as negotiations are entrusted to a nearly-powerless lead negotiator, Iran obviously feels free to engage in non-productive distractions... after all, their goal is to negotiate for nothing and take a long time doing that.

A different dynamic is required for the forces opposing proliferation to succeed.

I would suggest taking on Amb. John Bolton, empowered with a letter authorizing military and economic coercion, to lead any future round of negotiations... but then the Iranians simply wouldn't show up and then push would come to shove.

...which it likely will, anyway. May as well be moving forward those intervention plans, folks. Bets are we will need to use them.

Not helping, Jan 2011 edition.

The military has a quaint term for those who screw over their friends and team mates, especially if it was done for personal gain or convenience: 'Blue Falcon'.

The term isn't really applicable outside the team structure, but... if I were to encourage its application in the Foreign Policy area... this pretty much qualifies. Thank you ever so much, Junior. You have apparently let your promotion from Speechwriter to Title-that-means-speechwriter convince you that what you say is somehow useful or helpful. It wasn't:

HONG KONG, Jan. 21 (AP) - (Kyodo)—The United States recognizes no claims to the sovereignty of a set of islets in the East China Sea, an adviser to the U.S. president said Friday.
"The U.S. does not have position on the question of sovereignty regarding the issue of the Diaoyu Islands," Benjamin Rhodes, deputy national security adviser for strategic communications in the White House, said in a video conference with Chinese bloggers set up by the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.

He was responding to Chinese blogger Ma Xiaolin, who questioned the United States taking the side of Japan on the issue by including the islets under the Japan-U.S. security treaty.

"We do not recognize the sovereignty claims by neither China nor Japan," Rhodes said.

First, that isn't historically correct. The U.S. in fact was the author of the postwar partitioning of territory in the area, and specifically mandated their return-by-transfer as part of the Okinawa reversion to Japan. P.R. Chinese and ROC claims to the area postdate that.

Second, it isn't correct as extant policy. The status quo is expressly covered in the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty (1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with the United States, under which the territory is specified as part of the territory of Japan to be defended, as amended since reversion).

Third, if this statement reflects the Obama administration's official opinion as to what position it would take were the matter to be open to negotiation, that would be a matter for the President and his Secretary of State to make known through their Ambassadors to both interested countries... and even then, if Madame Secretary inserts her opinion into other people's sovereign business, it is still not meaningful or helpful and she can rightly be told to mind her manners.

If his boss... the top boss... is willing to publicly stand behind B. Rhodes words, then there should be a quick trip back to Washington D.C. for U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos... and little invitation for a speedy return. But that's not what has happened so far, and that's not what's going to happen if there is a whit of sense left in the U.S. government.

I'll posit that as "likely", so that leaves only one alternative:

Public refutation of B. Rhodes' statement by the administration.

It would help if a public humiliation of Rhodes could be scheduled as well, but that's likely asking too much. Pity, that.

***
edit: description of status under the Security Treaty clarified.

addenda: Welcome, Legal Insurrection readers and thanks to Professor Jacobson for making this thread the "Post of the Day" for 22.January.

Sunday Morning Push

Here's your Sunday Open Comments Thread.

Use this wisely, folks. The usual rules apply: play nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

News to watch for: South Korea awaits only the lifting of the foggy weather to commence its next live-fire artillery training drill... for the troops on Yeonpyeong Island. This could get messy.

Formalities

First, everyone establishes their position of record.

North Korea: We will keep doing what we are doing.

South Korea: The next provocation will be met with significant reprisals (airstrikes).

The P.R.C. (round one) as reported in South Korea:

China is taking a vague attitude on North Korea's provocations, including its artillery attack on a South Korean island, with a top Chinese official skipping any mention of the shelling when he visited Seoul last month, a senior Seoul official said Thursday.

The U.S.A.:

"I actually believe that because these provocations continue, and seemingly at a more frequent interval, that the danger is going up and that steps must be taken to ensure that they stop," said (U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike) Mullen at a news conference in Tokyo.

"Much of that volatility is owed to the reckless behaviour of the North Korean regime, enabled by their friends in China," he said.

"There is too much at stake for this sort of myopia."

The P.R.C. (round two):

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a news conference that she questioned what Adm Mullen had done for "peace and stability in the region".

She called his remarks on China's support for North Korea an "accusation".

Okay then... so much for the formalities.

Now that everyone has staked out a public position, it is time to get things done.

Today, Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo (the "top Chinese official" that visited South Korea earlier) has met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. This is reported as:

"the two sides reached consensus on bilateral relations and the situation on the Korean Peninsula after candid and in-depth talks," Xinhua news agency said.

Next, a high-level U.S. delegation, led by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, plans to visit Beijing next week.

But wait... what could possibly go wrong?:

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former ambassador to the United Nations who for years has served as a roving diplomatic troubleshooter, will visit North Korea next week in a trip that was announced hours before the North's Kim Jong-il met in Pyongyang with Chinese State Councilor Dai Binggou.

...

Richardson said in a statement that he is worried about the North's actions.

"If I can contribute to the easing of tension on the peninsula, the trip will be well worth it," he said.

In Washington, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Richardson will not carry any message from the U.S. government. However, Richardson will likely be briefed before he goes and then report back to the State Department after returning, and the visit could help ease tensions.

Oh.

Forgive me.

Given all the preliminaries, I thought there was some hope for meaningful action.

I can not think of a move more likely to undermine our allies and put off any resolution to things short of the Obama administration organizing a "beer summit".

I will say that several State Department folks *should* be outraged with their bosses. I doubt that they would publicly air said outrage, but still...

APEC Yokohama - Day One

When the highlight of the day's reports is the exercise in artistic indulgence that is the "virtual koi pond" in the convention center, you just know that not much good happened.

Just Not Going to End Well Situation: Medvedev spokeswoman Natalya Timakova speaking of the side meeting planned between Russian President Medvedev and Japanese PM Kan about the Northern Territories - "She added that Moscow's position that the disputed islands belong to Russia has not changed." No kidding. After all the other statements, the Vostok military exercises this year focusing on Sakhalin and the nearby possessions, the adoption of a formal Russian position that hostilities in WWII in the Pacific didn't end until September of 1945, and then the Medvedev visit to the occupied islands on November 1st of this year... you'd think it would be pretty obvious at this point. Even the Kan administration is going to come to realize that continuing to do favors for Russia is not buying them anything.

Petty Moment of the Day: US President Obama crying out "Stephen, don't fall in!" while Canadian PM Stephen Harper was looking at the virtual pool. Typical, but still disappointing.

Unsaid, but Lurking: Way too many of the nations surrounding the South China Sea have been nervous for years about the PRC's massive upgrading and enlargement of the PLA-N (their navy). After the events of this year, add Japan and quite possibly the ROK to the "concerned" list. The question is rapidly changing from "should something be said/done?" to "what are we going to say/do?". If that pops out in public statements during this conference, I'd say things could get rather ugly.

G-20 ...that could have gone better.

Got to watch the road show that is the post-November-2nd American Presidency a bit closer this week. The Ind(ia) and Ind(onesia) legs of the tour went pretty much as expected. The Big Sell in India and the Big MakeNice in Indonesia... both more befitting a Chirac-led French industrial promotion exercise, but mostly positive at least in small ways. But then, the road show got to South Korea for the G-20 round.

Ouch.

Mister Popular is now Mister Not-So-Keen.

It probably would have helped if the U.S. Federal Reserve hadn't been initiating its second round of willful devaluation quantitative easing at the same time President Obama was voicing his unhappiness with countries manipulating their currencies. That just didn't go over well at all.

Waving around "trade imbalance" issues at the same time also smacks of a real lack of understanding of the details. Helpful hint: While the PRC is probably the prime example of a country running up a trade advantage by gaming the exchange of its currency (not that the Renminbi is really able to be converted in any free market sense), it might be wise to note that the other big manufacturing-based trade imbalancer is... Germany. Yeah, the same Germany that sits in the middle of the Eurozone. The one where the Euro currency is currently significantly above parity with the US$ in valuation.

All that, and the side discussion about closing the ROK-USA Free Trade Agreement went nowhere.

On the local news front, it should also be noted that Japan did a whole lot of nada about the fact that the major cause of the run up to the en (Yen; JPY) is that the PRC has been shoveling formerly US$ assets into JPY in massive quantities; while there is a certain "safe haven" logic to doing so, the other effect is to undermine any Japanese export advantage to the US market at just the time that the PRC is hoping to move upscale in what it sells. There may be some nemesis being summoned up there, though... with the Renmimbi virtually pegged to the US$, forcing other currencies to appreciate sends echoes through the still-US$-denominated raw materials markets that China depends on to fuel its growth. Still, it all smells of the PRC trying to pass along its bad hand on the US$ to other countries' injury. The Japanese delegation really missed an opportunity to raise the matter where it might be noticed.

G-20 is a wrap. A whole lot of not much good.

Gee, what joy awaits us this weekend at APEC here in Japan, ne?

China, Burma, and on

While hunting up a reference to the potential resolution of the Bangladesh - Myanmar (Burma) sea border dispute originally mentioned here at CompHyp back in Nov. 2008, I came across a very fine work-up by Ben Blanchard for Reuters on the current state of relations between the P.R. Chinese and the Myanmar junta, which really is a marriage of convenience at best.

You can read the entire story at AlertNet. Good job, Reuters.

APEC run-up: China Matters

The upcoming APEC meetings, combined with the Japanese effort at the Mekong Development Summit and the East Asia tour of America's President Obama and entourage, will bring many issues to be dealt with, but perhaps none more likely to go wrong than matters with the People's Republic ("Red") China.

Here are two danger areas that the leaders of Japan (and the United States) had best be considering carefully *before* they speak:

The P.R. Chinese economy is very likely not capable of being an engine of recovery, even for its own people not to mention trying to be the next great consumer economy. The numbers just don't add up. Someone is cooking the books. Taking a trusting position right now won't help anyone.

and

The issue of Taiwan is, and has been, greatly aided by policies of Strategic Ambiguity on the part of Japan and the United States; the answer to the question of "Would either nation defend Taiwan from an attack by the PRC?" being somewhere between "*YES*" and "maybe", but never less than that. But given the performance of the Obama administration abroad so far, there is a genuine fear that he might say otherwise on this trip. Never mind that contravenes American law on the matter; all he has to say is "um... no?" and the PRC will take that as a green light for action.

So here's hoping for some diplomatic good sense on the part of all involved...

...faint hope that may be.

Treasury lists another North Korean banking front

The U.S. Department of the Treasury acted on August 11th to list Korea Kwangson Banking Corp. (KKBC) under Executive Order 13382.

E.O. 13382 freezes the assets of proliferators of WMD and their supporters and prohibits U.S. persons from engaging in transactions with them, thereby isolating them from the U.S. financial and commercial systems.

"North Korea's use of a little-known bank, KKBC, to mask the international financial business of sanctioned proliferators demonstrates the lengths to which the regime will go to continue its proliferation activities and the high risk that any business with North Korea may well be illicit," said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey.

The listing was also pursuant to UNSC Resolution 1718, sanctioning North Korean activities related to proliferation.

KKBC is another of the tangled mass of financial routes used to bring hard currency payments for weapons back to North Korea. A clear case of this was the movement of funds from Myanmar (Burma) to the People's Republic of China earlier this year, evading sanctions on both North Korea and Myanmar.

Xinjiang Riots Revenge

The massive rioting and popular insurrection that has swept through the Xinjiang region of the People's Republic of China (P.R.C.) have taken a turn for the worse. What was originally a mainly-Uighur outburst against perceived unfairness by the central government has now become a mass reprisal by the Han Chinese population against the Uighur population... and Security Forces that were sweeping Uighur neighborhoods to crack down on the first round of riots are now caught between the Uighurs and vengeful armed Han mobs.

There is more than a little evidence that the P.R.C. central government is reaching the limit of its patience in this matter. The open question is whether they will come down hard on the Han rioters or simply assist them in a city-wide massacre.

The major city, Urumqi, has a greater number of Han than of Uighurs, but the region as a whole is still predominantly Uighur. *If* the riots in Urumqi turn into an effort to expel or kill the urban Uighur population, the entire region is simply going to explode in hatred against the immigrant Han and the central government. Considering how important Xinjiang is to the resource base of the P.R.C., that's going to mean civil war...

Improving Defense in Japan's southwest

This is still a matter under consideration, but since the Bouei Daijin (Defense Minister) was willing to speak of this at a news conference, here is the story:

Currently, the westernmost of the islands of Okinawa Prefecture are patrolled but not garrisoned. The basing of elements of the Rikujou Jieitai (Ground Self-Defense Force; Land Army) at Yonaguni-jima would provide a facility for defense and disaster response in the region and would be a major improvement to force capabilities there.

However...

The small Okinawa Prefecture island is part of the Ryukyu Islands in the East China Sea and located just 110 kilometers from Taiwan's eastern coast.

It is also roughly 150 km south of a set of Japanese-administered islets whose ownership is disputed by China, Japan and Taiwan. Japan considers the islands -- called the Senkaku in Japan, Diaoyutai in China and Tiaoyutai in Taiwan -- part of the Ryukyu Islands.

This may take some explaining to the neighbors. Hope they are willing to listen to reason.

Xinjiang riots worse than first reported

First reports in the People's Republic of China news outlets sounded bad, but not overwhelmingly bad by Chinese standards...

China says a riot that shook the capital of western Xinjiang region on Sunday was a plot against its power, after at least three people died in the eruption of ethnic unrest and authorities launched a crackdown.

Hundreds of locals took to the streets of the regional capital, Urumqi, some burning and smashing vehicles and confronting ranks of police and anti-riot troops.

Not so fast there.

It seems that there was a *bit* more to it than that:

Violence in China's restive western region of Xinjiang has left 129 people dead, state media say - a sharp increase on an earlier reported toll.

Some sources are putting an even higher number of deaths, but those are not yet second-sourced.

This matters, besides the obvious matter of more than a hundred dead people, in that Xinjiang is the western border territory held by the P.R.C., is a vital part of their energy and resource development plans, and is a little less than half-populated by Uighur (Uyghur)... the Turkic people shared across Central Asia... and they (collectively) haven't exactly taken well to being a part of Han-dominated China. There are perfectly peaceful nationalist Uighur groups, but there are some bad apples as well (cf. East Turkestan Islamic Movement) that have ended up on the wrong side of the GWOT, and then there are armed liberation groups.

The P.R.C. government finds it useful to lump them all under the "terrorist" label, and treats the problem as such.

There may not be that many "terrorist" Uighurs out there, but after today, there may well be more rebels.

***

UPDATE 6.July, late

The death toll is over 156, and official P.R.C. sources put the number arrested at 1,434. Protests have spread in the region, but there has been a massive movement of security forces to counter this uprising.

***

Undermining Democracy

An absolutely "must-read" item for anyone studying the way that authoritarian governments around the world today are using the label of "democracy" to perpetuate their own power.

Undermining Democracy.

A joint research effort by Freedom House, Radio Free Asia, and RFE/RL.

This one didn't fizzle.

Kilju, North Hamgyong Province, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea).

~0950hrs 25.May 2009

Seismic indications of a substantial underground explosion.

Looks like they managed a multi-kT device this time (multi-kT = in excess of 1 kilo-ton of TNT in blasting power; for comparison, the WWII-era weapons were between 15 and 21 kT).

Yonhap News (South Korea) also has sources saying the P.R.Chinese were informed before the test.