Sunday Morning Push

And then... and then I was busy. The wrong kind of busy. Not sure it is going to be better tomorrow, either. Stay tuned.

What got missed last week:

. Martin got the handshake. Elizabeth II was in Northern Ireland for part of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations. That's got to be an Only-Nixon-could-go-to-China moment for the Provos... Hope his own partisans don't hold it against him.

.. John Roberts engaged in one of the great judicial manuevers in the history of the SCOTUS. He was right about one thing, at least: It is not the court's job to save the electorate from bad laws passed by their representatives.

... Syria, Yemen, and Mali are all still hot zones in the Arab Spring (a year later and looking nothing like it did) and the GWOT. No coincidence, that.

.... Egypt elected Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood (yeah, he had a different party name; same difference) as President. SCAF (the Army government) tried to set the table by dissolving Parliament and taking over the new Constitution-writing, but even if that man is just a figurehead... ho boy... he's going to be trouble.

..... and lots more.

OK, your turn. This is an Open topic thread.

The usual rules all apply; most importantly: Play Nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

Blown

While there was no hope of keeping al-Qaeda from knowing exactly who doubled them...

...there was a modest hope of keeping some doubt in their (collective) mind for a while if the man they trusted to carry out their latest bomb plot had simply disappeared. Announcing, even a couple of weeks later, that Western Intelligence Services had the bomb in their possession pretty much scotched that...

...but just to be sure, certain political interests left no doubt in the matter.

The upshot:

Robert Grenier, former head of the CIA counter-terrorism centre, said: "As for British Intelligence, I suppose, but do not know, that they must be very unhappy. They are often exasperated, quite reasonably, with their American friends, who are far more leak-prone than they.

"In their place, I would think two and three times before sharing with the Americans, and then only do it if I had to. The problem with that dynamic is that you don't know what you don't know, and what opportunities you might be missing when you decide not to share. The Americans are doing a very good job of undermining trust, and the problem starts at the top."

No kidding. We've seen this before. Same Story, Different Day.

Can't *anyone* keep a secret anymore?

***

Richard Fernandez at Belmont Club on this same topic. Also, note carefully comment #12 ('wretchard' is Fernandez' handle). I'm pleased to say, I agree.

Cooperation

Everything old is new again... in this case being the United Kingdom and Japan are back in the defense cooperation business. Not quite a return to the old alliance, but a very positive step.

Oh, you thought UK PM David Cameron's visit to Japan was some high-level summitry on some matter of International Importance? Well, trade is important, and ~40 members of Cameron's entourage are business representatives... but most of them are looking for Defense deals... and it looks like the deal is done:

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and his British counterpart David Cameron agreed Tuesday to pursue joint development of weapons and equipment, marking the first such development for Japan with a country other than its main ally, the United States.

Here's a longer version of the story, although written just before the visit:

"I hope to discuss these issues with Prime Minister (Yoshihiko) Noda so that we can pave the way for our defense ministers to agree more formal cooperation when they next meet," Cameron said.

"I believe stronger cooperation on defense will provide benefits for both countries in terms of jobs and investment as well as reducing the cost of defense equipment upon which we both rely," the prime minister added.

Britain will be only the second country to collaborate with Japan in this sector. Tokyo and Washington had cooperated on several defense projects as exceptions to the ban before it was lifted in December.

According to British media reports, the agreement on joint weapons development between London and Tokyo will initially focus on nonlethal equipment and could lead to Japan investing in several projects including the purchase of combat ships and helicopters.

Combat Ships, you say... hmm. Given the cost of the F-35 program with the U.S.A. and the loss last year (in the earthquake/tsunami) of an entire squadron of Japan's extremely expensive F-2 fighters, you'd at least think that the possibility of reopening discussions on Combat Aircraft would be on the table...

...and Now.

There is serious evidence that between envy at other's success and their traditional bullheadedness, the Argies (as a Nation-State) haven't learned their lesson.

Besides the fact that the persistence of any Argentine claim to the Falkland Islands is only slightly less defensible or precedent-based than the (*former*) Indonesian claim to Timor Leste (East Timor)...

...I'll defend that in detail, if you'd like. Remember, I'm as revanchist as they come *when there is an actual historical claim to territory*, I'll gladly go chapter-and-verse on why this "claim" is Nationalist claptrap and has been since Argentina managed by some grace of heaven to liberate itself from the Spanish Empire...

...anyway besides that, the fact is they tried aggression and ended up with all the moral justification for their position that Saddam Hussein had when his army was sitting in Kuwait. And then they got what was coming to them, even without an Article 5 NATO intervention or a UNSC authorization of force. Just little 'ol tired Britain (and a tiny handful of help) gave them just what they deserved and frankly they got off lightly with the only reprisal outside the campaign on the islands was the sinking of the General Belgrano... Yes, that's heartless of me to say so. Doesn't change the fact that had the Argentines pulled a stunt like that on a U.S. possession they would have been picking up the pieces of every airplane, rowboat and army barracks from Buenos Aires to Tierra del Fuego. Don't ask what Ivan would have done to them had it been their collection of turf and sheep.

But these days, Argentina (again, the Nation-State, not necessarily the ordinary citizen) seems intent on playing again... at least politically. With a steady growth in GDP for the islands and the recent petroleum exploration success, Falklands is on its way to returning the favor to the homeland for all the lives and all the years defending the place. Argentina, on the other hand, remains mired in one of the longest and ugliest economic collapses of the last century, vastly worse and longer lived than the current unpleasantness in the U.S.A. and Europe. The current Argie management, the regime of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (Yes, she married her way into politics. It's a local tradition after all.) is part patron and part client of Hugo Chavez' schemes of anti-just-about-anyone-halfway-decent Gangster Totalitarianism Bolivarian Socialism, and living up to that means having enough ego and envy to parade around making threats against anyone that one might have a grudge against. Okay, fine. Argies are pretty good at grudge-holding, but that still doesn't make any sense of schemes and plots that require rather more ability (and weapons) than they have. On the other hand, that does fit Hugo's M.O. pretty well... big talk but really not capable of beating up on anyone three weight-classes down.

The U.K. side of things has been steady and measured (and more than Cristina and her political henchlings deserve, frankly). With the construction and constant operation of RAF Mount Pleasant, and a fairly good plan for rapid re-enforcement, there is also the stick available in case calm words and a few carrots don't keep the peace. None the less, it pays to be prepared.

In the words of Sara Jones (widow of Lt Col Herbert 'H' Jones VC OBE, 2PARA ):

"We stood up for what we believed in. We didn’t like to see a small country overrun by somebody who had very little claim to it."

She told The Daily Telegraph: "The islanders have always been fiercely British and want to stay that way. I would like to believe that we would, if we could, do it again."

***

If you've not heard of 'H' before, this is of marginal value in telling about the man.

caveat: this and the Wikipedia links above are only for general reference. Please check all actual citations.

Then...

Thirty years ago today.

Nothing much to celebrate except that the lads and the Kelpers made a good try of an impossible situation.

...but, the famous parting words of "Don't make yourself too comfy mate, we'll be back" eventually proved true enough.

We'll be celebrating on 14.June, though.

***

Personal note to Mum: I'd wager you remember my catching the fleet reports on BBC shortwave in the days just after this, disturbing the office and all. Then again, I didn't exactly mention why at the time. ((wry grin))

Remembrance Day

Armistice Day.

Veteran's Day in the U.S.A.

The hope that some day peace will come.

The assurance that the only way that will ever happen is to be prepared for war.

The thanks for and remembrance of those that have paid the tax of blood and service.

As is my way, I spent the day with some old friends.

I hope they noticed.

***

Afterthought: While I've seen it in years before, I have to say it was particularly meaningful to me to see every single news reader and reporter working for BBC World (cable and satellite TV) wearing a poppy clasp this last week. Yes, the Beeb; even with all their oft-demonstrated bias. Would that others showed the same respect...

Now, send in the *real* tiger!

(Guest Post from an unnamed representative of Forces of Evil Local 7...)

Excellent work, minions...

You've managed to spread confusion through the ranks of the security forces.

When they finally did see through our insidiously clever camouflage scheme, they dismissed it as harmless and cute. They think they will find the owner... in Hampshire... MWAHAHAHA... er, well.

Now to commence the second part of our plan:

Soon,

Soon,

SOON we will have the leaders of the Western World all in one place...

BWAHAHAHAHA.

If this works, think of the possibilities!

Replacing the American Museum of Natural History Lions...

release them against Turtle Bay...

HEHHEHHEH.

***

Editor's note: As we here at CompHyp possess only house cats, no tigers or lions, this post can be safely presumed to be satire. Thank you.

A superb choice of uniform

My congratulations to the Colonel of the Regiment, Irish Guards, upon his marriage. Best wishes to his lovely bride.

Oh, don't sound confused... you've almost certainly heard about this event...

The ghost of Mrs. McConville...

... still cries out for a reckoning.

John Derbyshire at The Corner, while writing on the Irish election, brought mention of Gerry Adams winning the constituency of Louth.

Mr. Derbyshire also very helpfully links to Ruth Dudley Edwards's commentary of 25.Feb and she's got a very, very good point: He's more open than ever to being charged for his crimes internationally than ever before.

Adams has, by resigning his Northern Ireland seat in the Westminster Parliament (which he profited from but never actually took up) last year and then winning election in the Republic as a TD... made himself the Republic's problem. She's not one to mince words about what should be done, either:

Brendan Hughes, Mr Adams chief lieutenant in the IRA, has stated that Adams was in charge of these ‘dirty’ operations. It is extremely serious that a potential member of Dail Eireann should be under suspicion of war crimes. It brings disgrace to the Irish Parliament and the Irish people.

We ask that one of the first duties of the new Government and the new Attorney General should be to investigate these claims, to see if there is a prima facie case for reporting Mr Adams to the War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague. This has happened with political figures from the former Yugoslavia, such as Radovan Karadich, the Bosnian Serb leader. Hopefully he will soon be joined in The Hague by Colonel Gaddafi, a man who brought much suffering to Northern Ireland as well as his own people.

I wholeheartedly agree. May it come to pass.

Freedom for Libya: Beware Pretenders

Just about the entire 'International Community' is now calling for M. Qaddafi to go; to resign, to be arrested, or to simply expire (different voices, different messages). Not a whole lot of listening going on in the regime about that, though.

Meanwhile, the insurrectionists in the east of Libya (Cyrenaica) are attempting to form a provisional government. Luck to them on that:

It was not immediately clear how much support the proposed provisional leadership commands.

So... if Libya does ever manage to dispose of the Qaddafi regime... this would be the go-to for forming a replacement government, right?

Not so fast, there.

You see, there is a little bit of history regarding what happened at the end of the Libyan monarchy (the one brought down by Qaddafi's coup way back in 1969): King Idris was vulnerable not only because he didn't go along with the Pan-Arabist and Arab Nationalist mood of the times; He also never fathered a surviving male heir.

To manage this inconvenience, King Idris had in 1956 appointed his nephew Hasan ar Rida as-Senussi as Crown Prince. Near the end, King Idris had actually agreed to abdicate (mostly due to his ill-health) with the new monarch to be installed on 2.September, 1969. Qaddafi's coup struck on 1.September of that year. Hasan is gone now, having endured arrest, destruction of his property, and a stroke... the last of which being the only reason he ever got out of Libya (to the UK) in 1988. He died in 1992, but just prior to his demise he formally appointed his son Muhammad as-Senussi as heir to his claim. He's still amongst the living (no small achievement given the Qaddafi regime's habit of killing off rivals), residing in exile, and has recently been willing to modestly speak on behalf of the insurrection against Qaddafi. His declared opinion on a possible return of the monarchy is that he and his family 'are in the service of the Libyan people' but that the return is not a priority. He is calling for a restoration of the Libyan Constitution, although how and to what extent is not clear as he also calls for open elections.

But just to make things more difficult, the situation in the monarchy-in-exile isn't exactly cut-and-dried: There is an alternate claimant to the throne.

That would be the 1st cousin twice removed of the late King, the also-named Idris al-Senussi. He's the third son by the second wife of the late Prince Abdallah, the advisor to King Idris who was given the task of undoing Qaddafi's coup and restoring the monarchy. That banner has now passed to this Idris and he has made a career of selling himself to anyone who will listen as being the head of the government-in-exile and chief of counter-revolutionary activities. He's also a greedy opportunist without peer.

My gentle advice, were anyone to be listening, would be that the United Kingdom (or the United States of America, and any other member of the 'International Community' that is looking for leverage over the situation) be very very careful who they choose to associate with in the Libyan exile community. Muhammad, styled HRH, might be a good ally and a good voice of tradition to the people of Libya. Idris, self-styled HRH, is almost certainly more trouble than he is worth unless a place for him in a supporting role can be found... and very carefully managed. Otherwise, I'd say to pay him no heed.

Besides, the real decision is happening on the ground in Libya right now. All this other talk is simply positioning for the future... which for Libya is hopefully a bright future.

***

Caveat: many links above are from Wikipedia and used for convenience only. Please source all citations there directly.

Further evidence of the influence of CompHyp.

In between all the other matters I get to talk about, having something lighthearted and yet of some good use is always a joy. This is one such moment.

You might recall I was a bit direct with Her Majesty's Prime Minister a few weeks back, re: the failure to maintain properly the Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office:

This isn't hard, Mr. Cameron.

The resolution is even good media optics.

Consider it a sop to the Traditionalist Right of the Party, if you must.

Something with sharp claws would be of use shredding those unreasonable budgetary requests from holdover Public Servants anyway.

I'll send you the contact information for a rescue centre in London.

Get a cat.

Well, it seems this ended well after all.

The new cat at No. 10 is Larry (Lawrence, more formally, I'm told), a four-year old tabby from Battersea Dogs and Cats Home. Yes, a rescue. One with superb mousing skills as well, and an also-welcome willingness to claw up news reporters uncivil enough to pick him up without asking. OK, maybe that last part is outside the usual job requirements...

For once, if ever, a politician has made a decision that we wholeheartedly support and applaud.

Bravo, Mr. Cameron. Well played.

Well, that does explain...

...how some of Gordon Brown's appointees lasting longer than five minutes.

Seems that, since untoward removal of the serving Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office Humphrey back in late 1997, and then brief acting tenure in 2007 of Sybil (during the house switch that put Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling in Number 10 while Brown resided in Number 11), the official residence of the Prime Minister of Her Majesty's Government has been without a ratcatcher.

The results are becoming an obvious embarrassment to the current administration. Yet the Cameron Premiership has yet to see the obvious:

Asked about the rat during a lobby briefing, the prime minister's official spokesman said there were "no plans" to bring in a cat to deal with it.

No Plans?

This is *not* like the problem with building two large-deck aircraft carriers that will have no airplanes. This certainly isn't up to the difficulty level of dealing with the financial and social damage done by over a decade of New Labour policies.

This isn't hard, Mr. Cameron.

The resolution is even good media optics.

Consider it a sop to the Traditionalist Right of the Party, if you must.

Something with sharp claws would be of use shredding those unreasonable budgetary requests from holdover Public Servants anyway.

I'll send you the contact information for a rescue centre in London.

Get a cat.

No Progress... No Surprise.

The Istanbul round of the P5+G negotiations (the five UNSC Permanent Members and Germany) with Iran over nuclear proliferation has ended with no progress. The two reasons for the failure can be found in the same quote from the BBC article:

EU foreign policy chief Baroness Ashton, who led the international team, said Iran had come to the talks with pre-conditions.

So long as negotiations are entrusted to a nearly-powerless lead negotiator, Iran obviously feels free to engage in non-productive distractions... after all, their goal is to negotiate for nothing and take a long time doing that.

A different dynamic is required for the forces opposing proliferation to succeed.

I would suggest taking on Amb. John Bolton, empowered with a letter authorizing military and economic coercion, to lead any future round of negotiations... but then the Iranians simply wouldn't show up and then push would come to shove.

...which it likely will, anyway. May as well be moving forward those intervention plans, folks. Bets are we will need to use them.

Had time. Didn't have time.

The classic comparison:

Had time to... go on national television and get interviewed.

Didn't have time to... get briefed on the breaking counter-terror story of the day before going on said television program.

Yup. went on the air and got blindsided.


The victim of this administration-inflicted wound?

U.S. DNI James Clapper.

Analysis: Likely not a coincidence. Jim Clapper is a solid professional at what he does. The only way something like this happens is if someone left him out of the loop.

Resolution: That someone should be quietly identified and reassigned to Penguin Abatement Duty at MCAGCC (29 Palms). Perimeter foot patrol.

Luck to you, sir

... you're going to need it.

David Cameron is offered the U.K. Prime Ministry.

Supposedly, there is a done deal with the top tier of the Liberal Democrats. Whether that manifests itself as a voting majority in Parliament remains to be seen.

Whether that tie-up will endure the first challenge of budget or policy differences also remains to be seen. Here's hoping the Tories are firmly in the driver's seat (else things will be rather bad in a number of ways), but bets are that come the first real dust-up, it will be another election.

On the Labour side, Gordon Brown has packed his bags. Really. Resigned, and likely will resign from politics as well. Not a moment too soon, from this point of view.

Get out the splitting wedge

Election reports from the UK are (as of this writing):

The Tories at 305 (update: 306. Tories held Torridge and West Devon)

Labour at 258

The LibDems at 57

...and the rest of the 648 (update: now 649. all in) reported to minors and regionals. None more than 8, and that's the DUP in Northern Ireland which is a (usually) reliable Tory ally.

One more due today That's a wrap. (#650, Thirsk and Malton, votes in a 27 May by-election)

Not enough.

Even with the Conservatives picking up a net of +97 seats, it's not enough.

Need 326 to carry confidence.
(*Errata: 323. Sinn Fein won't take their 5 seats, so a majority of quorum is less than 50%+1 of the entire parliament.)

There simply aren't enough minnows that would treat with the Tories to make up the shortfall.


Two possible reasonable courses for the Tories from here, IMO:

. Go with the Unionist allies, and stay in opposition. Let Labour sell out to the Liberal Democrats, and then beat them both with that stick until the government falls. Win more seats in the snap election that follows.

plus point: good for the Tories; good for the future of conservatism.

minus: probably very bad for the country. Labour under Gordon Brown has for all intents brought ruin to the doorstep. Leaving them in the driver's seat might allow more malfeasance, and certainly would allow a stubborn-and-selfish strategy by Labour to hold off calling the next election no matter how much more bad they do. There's just no telling how much national sovereignty a combination of Lord Mandelson and Nick Clegg will figure out how to give away in that circumstance.

or

.. Get out the splitting wedge and go after the bloc of Liberal Democrat MPs from Cornwall. Try to carve apart LD with the promise of coalition in government.

plus point: unlike doing a deal with the LibDems as a whole, an agreement with the generally more rational folks who run as LD in the far southwest would likely not require a commitment to supporting Proportional Representation as part of election reform, nor would it bind the Tories to the boat-anchor of Eurocentricism that is so dear to N. Clegg and the urban LibDems.

minus: Very, very hard to do. As divided as the heart of the LibDems is, there is rather little chance after a campaign where their leadership did a very fine job of keeping the party together in a run at both big parties that said leaders are now weak (or foolish) enough to let a dozen of their old-line go wayward on them.

If it were mine to play, I'd take a try at it, though.

Unlike Sir John (John Major; former PM and rather the cause of the Tories' years in the wilderness), I don't think giving the LibDems cabinet seats "is a price worth paying". A coalition with LD as a whole will neither be stable nor able to move decisively.

Sadly, we may well find out.

A political "growl"

Yes, a growl. This author is, at the best of times, a bit of a growly bear; recent political trends are more than enough to bring out the full enraged Grizzly mood.

Here's a political "growl" aimed at the political machinations in three countries that would otherwise have my whole-hearted support and hope for.


The targets of ire, ranked from least to most:

((small growl))
The U.S.A.'s Republican Party ~ besides the water-under-the-bridge that when they were in power they did bugger all of any effect to take on social and economic challenges that clearly were heading things toward the cliff, it is worth mentioning that *now* that they are in the opposition there is still the self-sabotaging conduct of various of the politicians who still have seats in government to undermine a unified effort at holding the fort. To their credit, they did manage to keep party unity in both houses of the legislature when confronted with the masterwork of political malfeasance that was Health Care Reform - Obama/Reed/Pelosi version. But... it sure would be nice if they'd show similar unity of purpose on the rest of the load of crap coming down the pike administration's agenda because almost to the item that is worthy of opposition.

((not really hostile yet growl))
What on God's Green Earth are the U.K. Conservatives thinking? Yes, they got smeared the last few elections by the Blair machine and its staggering remnant and Yes, they got smeared because they got stuck with "The Nasty Party" label... which is a much meaner labeling in British politics than it may sound to people in other countries. But to build the Tory Renaissance on a massive move to (perhaps past) Center by David Cameron and his "new" leadership at a time when Labour has clearly shown that after Tony Blair took his retirement, he took every single brain cell in that party with him... the grand old Conservative and Unionist Party had no need to take a lurch to the left. To do so at a time when the entire economic fortune of the future of the U.K. is on the line *and* while Defence has been asked to be at war for the better part of a decade with no meaningful budget to speak of, well, that's just silly. Great Britain needs the Tories now, and by that I mean the real Tories; anything less may well mean Labour giving way to... The Social Democrats. Doom. Doom, I tell you, if that were to come to pass. *Those* clowns make Gordon Brown almost appear fit for the premiership.

((little louder growl))
The Party Formerly Known as jiyuu minshutou (Liberal-Democratic Party of Japan; LDP). Gee Whiz, guys, you lose one election (and not for the first time; cf. 1993~1994) and panic strikes. It looks like it is a race to see how *many* blocks of five elected officials can cobble together and split off into a "new party". We're on about number three in the factional fallout right now, and the number of players scheming for an out that would separate them from the woefully mislead LDP-as-it-remains. (see these political cartoons and select Dahl's Japan for April 18th 2010 for a superb summary of the reaction to current LDP chief Tanigaki Sadakazu (S. Tanigaki)'s ability to mobilize the opposition.) This is, to put it mildly, lunacy. A fragmented, self-interested and only-able-to-see-as-far-as-the-boundary-of-their-electoral-district opposition is no real opposition. The only thing that might save this current crop of LDP and former LDP politicians is the incompetence being demonstrated by the party in power (see below).

((now we get more growly))
Gordon Brown.

Anything Gordon Brown tries to do politically.

Anything Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his fellow-travelers like Lord Mandelson set to doing.

Dear Grace. Perhaps never, in a developed country, have I ever seen a lot like this.

May they be gone and quickly before they do any more damage.

((serious growl))
Folks here, even very reasonable folks here, voted in a way far contrary to their best interests by giving Hatoyama Yukio (Y. Hatoyama)'s minshutou (Democratic Party of Japan; DPJ) a shot at running things after three pathetically bad LDP administrations had used up all the good done in the days of Koizumi. What they didn't realize, even when it was explained to them *before the election* was that it was not the best of ideas to give power to a bunch who were (a) a throw-together of populists, urban interests, labor union representatives and rank opportunists; (b) dependent on some far-left allies to hold control of the Upper House; (c) basing their entire party political machinery on one man who while legendarily successful at keeping himself in politics is also successful *because* he commands the personal loyalty of a faction of lawmakers who got where they are because of him, and he knows it; oh, and add in (d) they had zip zero nada experience in leading the bureaucracy-driven creature that is the Government of Japan. What could possibly go wrong, eh? OK, now they are the in-party... and we get a massive tangle of contradictions and confusion. "We'll target 25% CO2 reductions" (maybe more) *and* "We'll drop toll-road fees and lower the gasoline tax". "We'll cut tuition costs at High School to near nothing" plus "We'll grant a gift to every family with children every year" *and* "We'll cut Government borrowing". "We'll restore the relationship with the U.S.A." plus "We'll organize an East Asian Community to rival other major political blocs" *and* "We'll renegotiate almost every agreement (including Defense matters) that we think we can improve (or make our Socialist allies happier by doing so)". There is a reason a Washington Post columnist called Hatoyama: "...hapless and (in the opinion of some Obama administration officials) increasingly loopy..." and it's not entirely unwarranted for him to have said so. There are about a handful of competent people in the DPJ and none of them are being allowed to do what they are good at. This is a train wreck waiting to happen.

((full-throated hostility))
The American government is being run by the reincarnation of every bad memory one might have of the Carter administration, but with all the "improvements" John Podesta's Center for American Progress (emphasis on the "progress" part) can contribute and a National Security Council staffed by a bunch with a view of international policy that would have made Carter's U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young wish he was one of them. Don't even mention the current policy goals for economic and social "reform" inside the country. It is not at all clear that the legislative elections coming in November will be enough to undo the harm already done, which leaves a Constitutional Crisis on the horizon when test cases make it to the Supreme Court. Way to go, Arsenal of Democracy and Leader of the Free World... you've been on the wrong side of way too many international issues the last 15 months and all signs are that trend will continue in the short term. At the rate things are going, a 1% of GDP for Defense is in the cards not too long from now, as that's all a developed country with massive national debt can afford. Japan gets away with that because (politically) they are under a restrictive constitutional structure and (functionally) protected by the greatest one-way alliance in history. Europe, in the main, gets away with it by a combination of barely-enough collective capability and an alliance that while occasionally encumbering (cf. War in Afghanistan) provides massive expeditionary capabilities to come to their aid and a huge reserve. Oh, and both sit under an American nuclear umbrella... even the U.K. and France benefit by the strategic depth and deterrence that comes with that as a compliment to their own capabilities. If the Americans abdicate their place at the fore, there is no other country in the world one would want to depend on to provide the means for military action. Period. Given the unchanging fact that the world is a dangerous place, a nation that forgets that the major task of government is national security is a collective fool. Given that it takes between five and twenty years to rebuild a national military capability, once lost, (this isn't the 1930's folks; you can't rebuild an army, navy, or especially an air force in just a couple of years any more) is functionally gone. Saying that one will come back in a decade or two and avenge the defeats of today is.not.a.viable.deterrence.strategy.


Here's hoping that all of these growls will prove in the end to be warning, not biting growls. Here are the best ways to make that so:

The U.K. general election is May 6th, 2010

The Japan House of Councillors (Upper House) election is July 11th, 2010

The U.S. Congressional (House and 1/3 Senate) election is November 2nd, 2010

Vote.

But before you do, make your voice heard. Tell the candidate you support why you support them, and tell other voters as socially appropriate. If you're feeling up to it, join a public demonstration. But always, always, say why. It matters.

Since someone asked...

...there's not much good to say about double-dealing agreement-breaking already-invaded-once Argentina in regard to the latest developments in the Falkland Islands.

...but there is far less good to say about the American government's stance on the issue. In fact, just to point out how *idiotic* the Obama administration (and in particular the State Department) is being, here's a "fun fact" for you:

The British sovereignty over the Falkland Islands is a slightly *better* claim, as such things are considered, than the American sovereignty over the Florida Keys.

The only significant difference is that neither Cuba nor Spain chose to "reserve their claim" as a condition to joining the United Nations... Argentina expressly did so regarding the Falkland Islands, and any time an Argentine government makes a mess of things domestically, they haul out this old canard and pray for a nationalist frenzy to bail them out.

Embassies in Yemen closed Sunday

The U.S. and U.K. Embassies in Yemen are closed 'today' (Sunday) in response to threats:

The White House counterterrorism chief John Brennan said the American Embassy, which was attacked twice in 2008, was shut Sunday because of an "active" Al Qaeda threat. A statement on the embassy's Web site announcing the closure cited "ongoing threats" from the terror group and did not say how long it would remain closed.

In London, Britain's Foreign Office said its embassy was closed for security reasons. It said officials would decide later whether to reopen it on Monday.

source - The AP via FOXNews.

Lots of talk about how USCENTCOM is pushing in another ~US$70 million in counterterror cooperation funds to Yemen. That might be a good investment, if one knows where the money is going. Then there is Gordon Brown's latest foray into trying to spend money to solve problems (other than in actual useful MoD budgets), which the always reliable Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation sees as missing the point.

Far more important may well be the ongoing operations in eastern Yemen, but as long as the Government of Yemen can be bought and sold, there is simply no telling whether the cooperation seen over the last few months is anything but a transitory event.

IF that can be kept in mind, however, the adage about "making hay while the sun shines" seems to apply. Given the amount of al Qaeda out there to mow, let's get to it.

***

UPDATE:

Here's more on the U.S. military involvement in Yemen from CBS Evening News (USA). Sadly, it appears some members of the administration see this as a good time to score some political points...

U.S. officials had kept fairly quiet about the extent of American involvement in the recent Yemeni strikes. But with so many Americans asking what their government is doing to keep them safe after the Christmas Day bombing attempt, many more officials seem eager to describe how they're striking back.

...which, while no surprise, is an unwelcome motivation for otherwise commendable actions.

Here also is the item from the Wall Street Journal on General Petraeus's visit to Yemen on Saturday... and the various political posturings going on in London and Washington... but if that is what is needed to get some freedom of action against GWOT targets in Yemen, and to get the UNSC to finally consider the linkage between the Somalia situation and that in Yemen, then by all means get to it, fellows. Time's a-wasting.

Peter Moore freed

This borders upon the astounding...

British hostage Peter Moore has been released alive from captivity in Iraq, Foreign Secretary David Miliband said.

Three reports all confirm his freedom:

From the BBC;

From Reuters AlertNet;

From the AP.

It was a willful release by his captors; no explanation as to how or why is given.

Still to be done is the determination of the fate of Alan McMenemy, the fourth guard kidnapped with P. Moore. All the guards are believed to have been killed (although, so was thought about Moore), but no remains of A. McMenemy have been recovered to date.

That any of them survived to be released is simply a wonder.

Welcome home, Mr. Moore.

***

UPDATE: The Guardian (UK) has lots on this.