Not getting any better

While the obvious observation as to what would make Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) a better place would be the end of Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF thugocracy, that isn't going to happen easily any time soon. Rumors to the contrary are unfortunately still just rumors.

Meanwhile, things are not getting any better. Please compare and contrast the following:

The Zimbabwe Crisis, as of 2010. Agriculture in ruins; a breadbasket nation dependent on food aid.

The Food Crop Shortfall in Zimbabwe, 2012. Maize (corn; mealie) production down year-on-year again; wheat shortfall near total. Policy continues to compound disaster.

There is no money in the national budget for relief, either. Yet the bank accounts and diamond hoards in Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong continue, by all reports, to grow. If the ZANU-PF loses its grip on power, the claw-back of that is going to rival the pursuit of Marcos' millions (Philippines)... but that very reason seems to be why the ZANU-PF will continue to fight to keep power no matter the cost to the people.

May such an opportunity be denied them, and the people dance on *their* graves.

Julius

...Malema, not Caesar, although not for want of trying. Oddly enough, it was accusing someone else of wanting to be a dictator that just drew him his fourth suspension from the ANC (The African National Congress as reformed to be a South African political party). Disrespecting the Party and the President, for just a couple of the charges.

Yes, that's how the ANC works; still more in common with its roots in the SACP (South African Communist Party; just as bad as it sounds) than a real democratic political party although in fairness, much has changed for the better. It's that "change for the better" that is actually imperiled by characters like Julius Malema. He's stated previously that his role model is Robert Mugabe... and he means it... and it is his personal goal to live it.

The ANC leadership tried to put on a show of unity but when two of the top six in party may well be in the pocket of Malema's little political-insurgency, that's not going to stand up to much observation.

Watch carefully how President Jacob Zuma handles this from here. He and some of his clique really made Julius Malema a political force, and now they are the ones standing between Malema and what his ego demands. Defusing this is going to be either (1) terribly complex and troubling, or (2) political martyrdom for Malema... and those choices presume it is still possible to defuse...

Marange

This is an item I've been holding on the desk since last month when I was doing a round of Kimberley Process -related work...

*This* is why the European Union should not be trying to continue to allow diamonds mined at Marange, Zimbabwe (Rhodesia), onto the world market:

The main torture camp uncovered by the programme is known locally as "Diamond Base". Witnesses said it is a remote collection of military tents, with an outdoor razor wire enclosure where the prisoners are kept.

It is near an area known as Zengeni in Marange, said to be one of the world's most significant diamond fields. The camp is about one mile from the main Mbada mine that the EU wants to approve exports from.

The company that runs the mine is headed by a personal friend of President Mugabe. A second camp is located in nearby Muchena.

This won't end until the ZANU-PF Kleptocracy is driven from power...

"if he is not aware of his wife's illegal activities..."

This is something I've mentioned before, here, but there is finally a ruling from the court:

Sheryl Cwele, the wife of South Africa's intelligence minister, has been sentenced to 12 years in jail for drug trafficking.

Of course, there will be an appeal. Don't bet on it changing anything, though; this was a pretty darn tight case.

So, what comes now? The real matter of this is how obviously compromised Siyabonga Cwele is, to the point of not being able to do his job nor of anyone *wanting* him to keep doing it. The opposition has said it best:

Opposition parties have called for Mr Cwele to step down, arguing that if he is not aware of his wife's illegal activities, he should no longer be in charge of the country's intelligence-gathering.

"Either the minister knew about his wife's operation to distribute hard drugs and benefited from it, or he did not know about it, casting aspersions on his competency for the role of minister of state security," opposition Congress of the People spokesman Phillip Dexter said in a statement posted on the Polity.org.za politics portal.

The Zuma administration simply has to recognize this is the case and show him the door. Gently into some retirement-of-opportunity, or simply dumping him; either will do.

Just get him the heck out of any job dealing with Law Enforcement or National Security.

Now.

And get a goooood look at his address book before he goes.

Not only influencing North Africa...

The successes in Tunisia and Egypt are not only influencing popular movements in North Africa and the Arabian states; the proof that people power can bring down an autocrat is being used as an example to motivate others in need as well... but there is a price.

Don't look for kleptocrats like Mugabe in Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) to let such things go unchallenged. He's the same ilk as Qaddafi in Libya, a thug, in power only by controlling the state security forces and by cutting in key supporters on a share of the loot. That's why he had everyone at the seminar arrested, and that's why things won't change until the campaign to get rid of him moves out of seminars and into the streets.

And in other stories...

...as they say in the news business when they gloss over a bunch of other reports that didn't make the editor's cut for airtime, here are some of the stories you've likely missed with all the focus being on the Arab world and certain countries' economic issues (all links below courtesy the fabulous AlertNet):

Madagascar: New road map can end Madagascar leadership row - SADC. I'll believe it when it works. This is, what?, power-sharing plan number six or so?

Congo: Gunmen attack airport in Congo's copper capital. No, not in the Kivus. This was down in Lubumbashi in Katanga Province; historically a hot spot for trouble, but recently the large security presence for the mining industry made it a pretty quiet place. That may not be holding, though.

Kenya: FACTBOX-Kenyan cabinet rocked by Kibaki's judicial nominations. Further evidence that the Kibaki-Odinga powersharing agreement is getting all the credence paid to it by the stronger party that usually happens in such cases... in other words, none to speak of. This will be a big problem if a constitutional crisis takes full form before the elections scheduled for next year.

and over in Southeast Asia...

Thailand / Cambodia: Thai, Cambodian troops in deadly clash near temple. Again. I've covered this dispute here at CompHyp before at some length, and it is still an open risk of major conflict between the two countries. The Royal Thai Army spokesman says it looks to have been a misunderstanding that led to the exchange of fire, and then an artillery duel, and that:

"There is no point in fighting because it could escalate and damage relations... We don't want that."

No kidding... especially when such an incident happens during a meeting in Cambodia between the Foreign Ministers of the two nations. Well, now they've really got something to talk about.


More stories, and more details on things, as time allows.

They are the same.

Just in case you ever considered correct the idea that The State, any State really, can be trusted with an unbridled authority over assigning property rights:

This (video feed) is really the same...

...as this.

There really no functional difference.

Frédéric Bastiat probably said it best: "property is value".

When you see a State asserting that it is the sole or preeminent allocator of property, what that State is really saying is that they assign control of value.

No further explanation of the resulting Kleptocracy should be required.

No further explanation as to why this conduct should *always* be opposed should be required either.

Unity Government broke... again.

While the kleptocrats of the ZANU-PF continue to move their ill-gotten loot to places like Malaysia and China / Hong Kong, the Unity government and the people of Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) have found that once again the treasury is far insufficient to meet obligations. Here's the latest telling of the truth by Finance Minister Tendai Biti (of the MDC-T):

“For the month of January we have only collected US$64 million and we are supposed to pay $101 million [public sector wage bill]. Where we are going to get the money to close the gap? I don't know. I have made it very clear that we can only eat what we have killed and no more or no less."

What makes this all far, far worse, is the estimation that the pathetic wages for non-political public sector employees (education and medical care in particular) simply don't come close to covering the cost of living, and that may well put the Unions in the streets. Here's their argument:

Public sector unions are threatening a national strike and have refused an 18-26 percent salary increase offer by government that would increase the lowest-paid worker's monthly income from $128 to $160. The unions are demanding a minimum monthly wage of $500.

The Zimbabwe Consumer Council told IRIN the cost of living for a low-income family of six in January 2011 was $503.40.

(Fair disclosure: I'm no fan of public employee unions, generally, and I certainly think the Statist practices of making so many jobs in countries in much of Southern Africa public employees distorts the economy. That said...)

...the Unions likely have a very good claim there. What makes this particularly ugly is that there is simply no way to pay for that under the current regime. Even *if* the Unity government had any real authority, it couldn't make money appear from the ruins of the economy as it stands in any short term. The only way, *the only way* for the government to be able to provide a modest standard of living for public sector workers will be if the people can restore the economy to any real productivity... and that can't happen with any part of the ZANU-PF in a position to keep stealing.

T. Biti, as part of the Oppos in Unity, has a rather precarious position to defend, I grant you. But he's sounding like a battered wife these days...

"We [the unity government] have also failed in many areas, with the slow pace of democratic delivery, the slow pace of constitutional development, the slow pace of security sector reform - all those things are failures," Biti said.

"This [the unity government] agreement has been very difficult. Whether it will lead to the collapse of the agreement I don't know. It is like a marriage. The husband can be cheating, but it does not necessarily mean it will end in divorce," he said.

Pathetic, isn't it?

The time is well past to end this charade.

Mugabe looks to pin 'treason' on the opposition. (UPDATED)

When all one has is a hammer... everything looks like an excuse to hammer one's opponents.

Zimbabwe's attorney general plans to set up a commission to investigate possible treason charges against locals over briefings with U.S. diplomats reported in confidential State Department cables released by WikiLeaks.

The move appears to be targeting Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, following state media reports that hawks in President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party wanted an official probe into Tsvangirai's briefings with the U.S. ambassador in Harare.

The very idea that opposing Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF kleptocracy is in any way 'treason' against the nation of Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) is shall-we-say open to dispute... although the medieval definition of 'treason' as an indignity against the person or property of the monarch might fit. Were that to be so in this case, of course, that would simply advertise more widely what is already known; that R. Mugabe and company see the state as their personal property.

I'll say it plainly: In my opinion, conduct by any citizen of that nation that expedites the departure of the Mugabe regime is patriotism.

***
Update 28.Dec

Professor Jacobson at Legal Insurrection has an article up now about this matter, and has kindly linked here as well.

In a side discussion with him, I realized that there was one small part of all this that readers might not be aware of:

OFAC listed J. Tomana on 21.Dec

TOMANA, Johannes, Office of Attorney General, Private Bag 7714, Causeway, Harare, Zimbabwe; DOB 9 Sep 1967; National ID No. 50-036322F 50 (Zimbabwe); Attorney General (individual) [ZIMBABWE]

Yes, that means the US DEPTTRES OFAC added Johannes Tomana to the SDN (Specially Designated Nationals) list on 21.Dec., placing him specifically under U.S. sanctions.

That predates the report of his actions in the Wikileaks matter by several days. Consider him a motivated actor.

Grace

...Mugabe, that is... seems to be a bit sensitive about reporters asking questions.

Moreover, she's taken to the courts to claim injury to her reputation by The Standard newspaper.

*pshaw*

Given everything commonly known about Grace Mugabe, there is little chance that The Standard did any ill to her reputation.

Little chance at all.

***

Wikipedia summary of citations provided for convenience only; please see all the links for proper attribution.

Bemba trial begins

"The war crimes trial of Congolese former rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba has begun at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague." - source: The BBC.

Consider me amazed that he went to trial. Back in August, 2009, I wasn't convinced he would. Good to say I was overconcerned, because this case really *needed* to go all the way to trial:

"The MLC is the army of and owned by Jean-Pierre Bemba. Jean-Pierre Bemba created it, to make money and to make power ... and that is the point for us: you will not make money or power by committing atrocities. You will be jailed," Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said outside the court.
- source: Reuters.

Now to make the charges stick...

Roy Bennett Acquitted

This Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) item came in yesterday, and it is most welcome news indeed: Roy Bennett acquitted of all charges.

"Having carefully considered the facts, I come to the conclusion that the state has failed to prove a prima facie case," said Judge Chinembiri Bhunu.

"The accused is accordingly found not guilty."

Magnificent. All the fabricated evidence the Mugabe regime threw at the case also was tossed out.

He's a free man, again.

Now let us see if the "Unity Government" is able to get him confirmed in his appointment as Deputy Agriculture Minister...

Roy Bennett's deployment to the agriculture ministry irked the security services and top Zanu-PF officials, many of whom benefited from the land reform programme.

It is unlikely that President Mugabe will accommodate Mr Bennett or allow him near controversial files that might expose the rot.

There is a general expectation Mr Mugabe will dig in and the MDC will again cry foul despite the acquittal.

Should Mr Mugabe climb down and swear him in, it would be a huge political statement.

--comments Brian Hungwe for the BBC.

Sunday-come-on-Monday Push

Weekends are supposedly not a time for work-like obligations... *sheesh*

Here's some of what got missed:

30 years since Desert One. Yes, it still matters.

ANZAC Day was Sunday.

Some other people who write have gotten some great work out recently.

John Noonan on The Fall of the House of Mugabe. Would that it be fallen already.

Douglas Rogers on Zimbabwe's Accidental Triumph.

“What’s that got to do with it?” Mr. Muchauraya snapped. “Mrs. James was an African just like you. Sing what you normally sing.” When he turned to apologize for the interruption, he saw my father had tears in his eyes.

The most appropriate answer to everything wrong in the disaster that is Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) under Robert Mugabe & Co.

J. E. Dyer on Putin's great April. Almost makes one wish they were playing on a winning side... almost.

Geoffery Forden at Arms Control Wonk on The Cheonan sinking, explained. That pretty much limits the choices to a mine or a torpedo. Now, what to do about it?

***

This thread is left open for comments if you have any topics you'd like discussed, or suggestions as to things to look into in more detail here. The usual rules still apply: Play Nice.

As always, thank you all for coming here.

Husband unaware

It says something about a relationship that this is the defense offered when the wife is accused of criminal conspiracy, but in fairness it is something that should be considered.

Sheryl Cwele, the 50-year-old wife of Siyabonga Cwele, appeared in court charged with conspiring to bring cocaine into the country.

Mrs Cwele was charged with procuring a woman to collect drugs in Turkey and of getting another woman to smuggle cocaine from Brazil.

She remains in custody until her bail application is heard in a week.

Mrs Cwele is facing the charges with Frank Nabolis, a Nigerian national arrested in South Africa in December.

What it isn't, however, is something that adds to one's chance of keeping one's job... when one is the Minister of State Security, the chief of all civilian Intelligence Services in the Republic of South Africa.

IF, and that's a big *if*, this indictment holds up then Dr. Cwele is an utterly compromised leader for no other reason than that his family-member's associates can (and will) be used against him. The very fact that this case has been in limbo since the December arrest of a (co-)conspirator and the arrest in Brazil *in 2008* of a drug mule linked to the accused causes some serious worry about the investigation. After all, criminal accusations of politically powerful individuals have a way of suddenly ending in the Republic...

Watch this case closely for a measure of how reliable an ally the South African Security Service remains in the GWOT and International CounterNarcotics.

Roy Bennett Trial : gun evidence thrown out

News from Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) and the trial of Roy Bennett, treasurer for Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and appointed deputy agriculture minister (uninstalled) in the "Unity Government".

Mr Bennett denies all the charges against him, which include terrorism, insurgency, sabotage, banditry and a plot to kill President Robert Mugabe and overthrow his government.

The judge has thrown out the prosecution evidence regarding firearms being hidden:

The judge said the testimony of arms dealer Peter Hitschmann was invalid, after the witness said he had been tortured into implicating Mr Bennett.

The state said Hitschmann had stashed guns for Mr Bennett - accused of a plot to kill President Robert Mugabe.

Hitschmann has been the most reluctant of witnesses throughout his own trial and his "confessions" were found inadmissible in that case in 2006. The presiding judge this time recognizes that, and has also ruled them inadmissible in this trial.

This has been a political persecution from the beginning.

Ending it, freeing Roy Bennett and declaring him innocent of all charges, will show that to everyone.

Once that is seen for what it is, can seeing the end of the Mugabe regime be far from view?

Mugabe's man in the church

His name is Nolbert Kunonga.

He claims to still be a man of the cloth.

Yet, this is what he does.

Riot police backing Nolbert Kunonga have beaten up congregants in Harare and locked them out of the city's St Mary's and All Saints Cathedral on Christmas Day despite a high court order instructing police not to interfere in church activities.

Mr Kunonga, who has often voiced support for Mr Mugabe and has been given a farm seized from its former white owners, was bishop of Harare when he split from the Anglican province of Central Africa in 2007 and declared himself an "archbishop".

(bold added by me. Typographical mistakes in the quote have been corrected from the original.)

No recognized Anglican Church leader in Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) supports the Mugabe regime. This man is simply another ZANU-PF kleptocrat.

When the day comes, he goes 'to the wall' with the rest.

MONUC mandate extended

...for five more months, not the usual one year finding authorization.

The UNSC vote was unanimous.

The extension, diplomats say, will give the United Nations time to prepare a plan to reconfigure the mandate of the force, known as MONUC, to focus more on training the army of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and protecting civilians.

A resolution unanimously approved by the 15-nation council extended the deployment of approximately 20,000 uniformed personnel, the biggest U.N. force in the world, until May 2010. But diplomats say it will be prolonged again after that.

The Secretary General is asked to submit a "strategic review of the situation" by April 1.

The Kabila regime (D.R. Congo) is still lobbying for an end to MONUC by next summer, supposedly on grounds of national pride. The open question remains, however:

...who benefits from ending MONUC while the northeast of Congo is still a warlord's paradise?

Rajoelina scraps the deal

The thread title pretty much sums it up: the Madagascar unity deal is off.

Madagascar's leader Andry Rajoelina has formally abandoned a power-sharing peace deal a day after appointing a military prime minister.

The BBC is calling this "...a complete reversal of any progress made so far to solve Madagascar's political crisis."

The AU, SADC, and the UN are now faced with a big nothing for all their intervention efforts. What official position France takes on this has not yet been reported, but they are the deciding voice on the ability of outsiders to influence the outcome of all this.

Meanwhile, Madagascar's military becomes even more a part of the politics and things march along toward conflict or a breakdown of order.

Sunday Push -- Quiz Time

There is a lot going on out there, and a lot that deserves attention and some 'blog threads here, but matters mundane leave me unable to do them justice.

So, rather than just a Sunday Open Thread, here's a little fun for you who like to research stories yourselves... focusing on some things we've discussed here previously:

. Madagascar's constitutional crisis is back in the news, and has a new twist. What happened?

.. Former President M. Zelaya is still in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, but what was the story on his supposed departure this last week? What did actually happen?

... Uganda's parliament just passed two astounding pieces of legislation, on the basis of making law regarding two societal matters. What were they? Are either reasonable laws?

.... Mauritania arrested 3 "bankers". How does that relate to the constitutional crisis there that was recently resolved? Is this important?

..... Another arms trafficking scandal just happened in Thailand. What was it, and who all got arrested and for what?

...... Speaking of arms trafficking, it looks like H. Chavez of Venezuela is ramping up arms deliveries and talking tough again. Why, and what of it?

....... and for bonus points: A 727 was found burned near an improvised airfield in what West African nation eariler this month? What happened (what do the authorities think, at least), and what reason was the aircraft out there in the middle of nowhere in the first place?

I'll give this a day or so, and then post up some answers (or confirm yours) in the comments to this thread.

Enjoy!

very, very distracted

There is a lot to cover going on out there right now, but in one of the unfortunate coincidences of life right now, I'm obliged elsewhere.

But...

Here are some reports and some very good writers you should spend a little time with, while I keep shoveling in the stables. (insert optimistic comment about finding a pony, *here*):

The ICC has opened the trial of two warlords from the 2003 fighting in Ituri, D.R. Congo, on war crimes charges. It is a particularly nasty set of charges, and Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has a very good case.

Also from the Congo, a report to the U.N. about MONUC and cooperating with the FARDC has been leaked... and it is one of those stories that cause one to question if there are any good guys in that fight. There are, but there are some really bad ones on both sides and that's where the problem lies right now.

Richard Fernandez (of Belmont Club reputation) has a superbly insightful piece on how the recent massacre in the southern Philippines came to be, and how it doesn't surprise experienced Philippines-watchers that it happened. There is no more-expert opinion out there on things political in the Philippines than R. Fernandez; he lived what he talks about on that topic.

Lastly, for now, *REMEMBER* 29.November is election day in Honduras... and the Zelaya-insurgents are intent on making a fight of it (and not just in the polling places). Look to La Gringa's Blogicito for first-class English-language reports from in-country as this all happens.

Thanks again, folks, and I'll be back to regular postings as soon as I can. Just need to get a little sleep first...