Housley on Hiz'b at the border

Recommended reading (and viewing, of the video segment):

CompHyp friend and FOXNews reporter Adam Housley has this report on Hiz'ballah (Hezbollah) smuggling activities in Mexico targeting access to the U.S.A.

It's a good report, and one that covers a topic with several facets (Narco, anti-Americanism, GWOT). Yes, they really are using bases in Venezuela and contacts in Nicaragua and Mexico to try and get to you...

Miqati

Hizb'allah (Hezbollah) 's pick for the next Prime Minister of Lebanon, Najib Miqati, is now a certain electee.

That's pretty much the end of any chance of bringing the killers of Rafik Hariri to justice.

Damn.

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Michael J. Totten reads this as time to fight. He's right, but I'm not sure the anti-Hizb' groups have what it takes to win such a fight...

Hariri Tribunal issues a sealed indictment

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL; a.k.a. 'The Hariri Tribunal') investigators have finally made their official indictments.

International prosecutors have issued an indictment for the 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon has not yet released names of suspects, and a pre-trial judge will now decide whether to issue warrants.

Members of the armed Shia group Hezbollah are expected to be named.

Any bets on how long the secret stays secret? Just asking...

Anyway, the political maneuvers to frame this matter have been underway since Hizb'allah (Hezbollah) walked out of the governing coalition last week. They are hoping to get a compliant administration to refuse further cooperation with the STL. Kind of like gangsters trying to buy off a prosecution, that.

In a pleasant manifestation of stated international support for stability as a new Prime Minister is being selected, the U.S. Embassy has been trying to have some understanding (or small support) of the process. Let's just say the guys on the other side are taking notice:

At the weekend, US ambassador Maura Connelly held talks with Christian MP Nicolas Fattoush - seen as a pivotal figure in the attempt to build a new coalition.

Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami summoned the envoy and accused her of "interference in the internal affairs of Lebanon".

The US strenuously denied the allegations, state department spokesman Philip Crowley telling AFP news agency: "We are respecting Lebanon's sovereignty and we would hope other countries would as well."

Don't worry too much; Ambassador Connelly and the staff there must well know that A. al-Shami is only in that job because his Harakat Amal (Amal Movement) party is hand-in-glove (for now) with the Hizb'allah political wing. Best to simply receive the accusation and just smile quietly. Let Foggy Bottom handle the denials duty. Gives Crowley something to do with his spare time.

The big issue in this, of course, is what will Hizb'allah do if they think a government supported by Saudi Arabia, France, and or the United States is going to come into power. Unless it will be a terribly weak coalition, one with those supporters is not going to back off the quest to punish Hariri (Sr.) 's assassins. That will leave Hizb'allah only with its lifeline allies of Iran, Syria and anyone playing for their team, then Amal and the turncoat faction led by Michel Aoun siding with it in-country.

That isn't a sit-pat hand in the allies department, and there isn't much other than offering safe exile that they could do if they wait until the STL makes the charges formal and public. The expected play will be to continue to short-circuit the process: If bringing down the administration won't stop things, then the next step is probably either a move to *make* Hizb'allah the government (a coup or civil war) or the threat of a external conflict of sufficient size to distract attention (gee, another Hizb-Israeli War might do). But I'm not sure that latter choice would work. The Saudis for one would happily fight Hizb'allah to the last Israeli, if you get my meaning, and such a conflict going regional would simply end any sense in the Gulf Cooperation Council that the Iranian regime could be tolerated any longer.

Avoiding that and getting the accused to trial may be mutually exclusive.

I *think* it would be worth it, though, especially if those still-sealed indictments reach out beyond Hizb'allah... maybe even outside Lebanon...

Stories to watch the next few days

Here's a by-no-means-all-inclusive alert. I've picked out three stories happening now that all have major international impact:

Lebanon has lost its government over the soon-to-be-announced Hariri Assassination indictments. As always, look for analysis to Michael J. Totten on matters in Lebanon, and look to Ya Libnan for your Lebanese news source.

North Africa beats East Africa to the punch on riots threatening the regime. Tunisia has declared a State of Emergency. Yes, there is still an open dispute in Tanzania as well, but it hasn't reached this level yet. Then again, those protests are more recent in origin.

Sudan is still in the process of the referendum on South Sudan Independence. The good news is that the required 60% of the electorate threshold for ratifying the result has been passed, and the Independence platform seems almost assured of carrying, but the district of Abyei isn't part of the territory to be liberated by the vote; its status won't be decided until later and then supposedly by negotiations. That and the tribal divisions in the region are all the invitation North Sudan needs to continue to stir up trouble.

Expect to see all of these stories get worse before they get better.

Three places to watch - November edition

There are always places out there hanging on the edge of conflict. Here at CompHyp, I've made it a habit in the past to point them out as the first open-sources (usually minor media reports) come out about them. This is by no means exhaustive, but for now let's live up to that tradition again with Three Places to Watch:

1) Sudan ~ It is voter registration time as of today for the national devolution referendum. This almost didn't happen, but a last minute deal seems to have kept the door open. For the next 17 days registration will compile voter lists all through Sudan that will be used for the 9.January 2011 vote. But to get to this point several side deals have been cut; the matter of contesting the demarcation of Abyei region will be treated with negotiation between the al-Bashir regime (the de jure government; represents the 'North') and the SPLM autonomous area government (the opposition separatists; the 'South') and that is just a recipe for a sellout done out of the media's view. There have also been some (upon examination) absurd claims of military build-ups and border fights along the separation line between North and South this weekend. That being what it is, the real risk is that there *will* be a military build-up as both sides think that a vote in favor of Southern secession will come. So put this on your watch list, but do be careful of breathless panic stories that could be the product of the flame-fanning on both sides.

2) Lebanon ~ The investigation into the Hariri assassination is coming to a close, and it looks like Hezbollah (Hizb' Allah; Party of God; the Iranian-sponsored faction of terrorist and Israel-attacking infamy) is going to get indictments from the Special Tribunal laid on several of their leadership. Hezbollah has angrily denounced that possibility, and says they will not comply. The last time they had a bout of 'non-compliance' they damn near restarted the Lebanese Civil War. If the indictments *are* upon leadership elements of Hezbollah, and there is a will by the State to try and enforce them, Hezbollah will likely start a fight. With someone. Plan for the worst there.

3) Nicaragua ~ Specifically, the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border violation along the San Juan River by Nicaraguan military elements. This is happening now. No, it isn't just a Google Maps error. It is claim jumping of the first order. The problem is made worse by the obvious contempt held by the Nicaraguan military for the Costa Rican Fuerza Pública (Public Force; Police with some paramilitary capability; Costa Rica has no regular army). Costa Rica also has depended in the past on the OAS to provide some amount of diplomatic protection for their interests, but that isn't going to happen if this matter is left in the hands of the current ALBA-influenced leadership at the OAS. Nicaragua under Ortega is proving to be another example that friends-of-Hugo are really bad neighbors. Oddly enough, this is also related to Iranian gamesmanship as they've got interests in their new Atlantic-side port project in Nicaragua and are in bed with the ALBA Chavistas. Potentially a really ugly situation.

The 'Root (26)

It is one of the things that has defined the last year for this author: coming to terms with the fact that there have been more years since some of the events that shaped (my) life and world view than (I) lived before they happened. Even ones I could only watch from afar.

Oct. 23rd, 1983

Beirut, Lebanon.

Remember.

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A previous post on this item here at CompHyp.

Black August?

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has always had an uncomfortable relationship with the common population of the Jordan River region. Being a foreign line of nobility that was placed atop one part of the partition of the former Ottoman Empire after World War I, and being functionally exiled from Peninsular Arabia by their rivals the House of Saud, it is no wonder that domestic politics in Jordan are still based as much on the fears of insecure rulers as anything else.

How insecure? How about the fact that over 70% of the population of Jordan self-identifies as "Palestinian"? How about the uncomfortable historical fact that the land itself has been promised, and claimed, thrice over in the aftermath of the defeat of the Ottoman overlords? (Syria certainly hasn't forgotten that, and has acted upon their claim in the recent enough past.) How about the fact that the last time the Palestine Liberation Organization tried to take over the country (in 1970), the result was a war *inside Jordan*... General Information Only, but to explain the full horror of that: Black September.

So when rumors get going, the conspiracy theories circulate, and when those rumors are that Israel is supposedly going to evict all the Palestinians from the West Bank area... panic ensues in the highest reaches of the Jordanian government.

(Israeli) Defense officials said this week that despite Israeli assurances that the Netanyahu government was not planning on evicting Palestinians to Jordan, Amman's anxiety was still high, likely an indication that "the Jordanians are still concerned that Israel is considering Jordan as an alternative for a Palestinian state," one official said. "The visit was aimed at assuaging those fears and ensuring that strategic relations between the countries stay on track."

Reasonable fear, though. The original division of the region into the Palestine Mandate and the Trans-Jordan was in part an intentional effort by the British to make Trans-Jordan (now the Kingdom of Jordan) an Arab-ruled Palestinian nation. No organized forcible relocations happened until the British were out of the picture though (but a lot happened from 1948 on... mostly exiling the Jewish residents of the Arab-ruled states surrounding Israel. There were removals of Palestinians from land in the Mandate as well, and then the massive self-exile of the Arab population from the Mandate at the time of Israeli Independence).

Well, here we go again:

Alarmed by rumors regarding a US-backed scheme to turn Jordan into a homeland for Palestinians, Abdullah is planning a series of steps to foil any attempt to resettle Palestinian refugees in the kingdom.

The rumors were triggered by talks about a plan to establish a decentralized government in Jordan, where local communities would enjoy some form of autonomy.

The Jordanian authorities' decision to revoke the citizenship of Palestinians in Jordan - who make up more than 70 percent of the kingdom's population - added fuel to the fire by giving substance to the rumors.

Not the best move, that. Let's hope it wasn't a fatal mistake.

Items in brief

Something to watch for:

M. Zelaya is making a show of trying to enter Honduras. Is this a gift to the interim Government of Honduras, who recognizes now they should have arrested him at the start of this, or is Zelaya just trying to get another of member of his "supporting demonstrators" killed?

Something to watch out for:

If you see a bunch of Hezbollah members digging storage bunkers in your neighborhood, you can safely presume they aren't for cold-storing goat cheese. Heck of job the UNIFIL is doing, catching this... of course, the enormous explosion might have tipped them off.

Something to watch, if you are Japanese:

With the run-up to the next Lower House Election underway, and the control of the administration of the Government of Japan at stake, it sure is good to see The Japan Times put this Page One, above the fold, today. Clearly, this is further evidence that having anko filling the space between your ears is no impediment to popular success, which should hearten the members of political classes everywhere.

TWA Flight 847 rememberance

June 14th, 1985

Remember Robert Stethem.

Remember that some of the perpetrators are still out there.

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General Information on TWA Flt 847 Hijacking from Wikipedia. As always, check the sources on citations there.

Lebanon goes to the polls

In a tremendously important moment for the future of Lebanon, polls opened this morning for Parliamentary elections. The issue at hand, really the only issue that matters, is the possibility that a Hezbollah-led coalition will win control of the legislature. In recognition of its own limitations, Hezbollah itself is running candidates in only about a dozen ridings. But the presence of several allied parties and the traitorous opportunist party of Michel Aoun is giving the pro-Iran / pro-Syria bloc a real chance of taking control.

Here is the work-up on the election from Angus Reid Global Monitor, including a superb historical overview of the background on Lebanon.

***

UPDATE

The "March 14th" Bloc looks to have won a majority! Hezbollah et al have privately conceded defeat.

Two Hezbollah Frontmen get OFAC listing, too.

Following up on yesterday's listing of the network of P.A. Bermudez Suaza as Specially Designated Narcotics Trafficker(s), the U.S. Department of the Treasury has designated Kassim Tajideen and Abd Al Menhem Qubaysi, two Africa-based supporters of the Hizballah (Hezbollah) terrorist organization, under Executive Order 13224 as material supporters of a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SPGT). Hezbollah has been so listed since 2001, superseding its listing as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (...et al) since 1995.

The connections that run from South America through West Africa and on to Europe and the Middle East continue to be unmasked.

It might have been about money...

...or opportunist vandalism...

...or it might have been a very messy and clumsy bit of data theft.

Do not discount the possibility of it being all three.

Whatever the reason, for the crime of the January attack on Caracas' largest synagogue the State Prosecutors in Venezuela have filed charges against 8 police officers and 3 other persons.

It is fair to note that the government of Hugo Chavez has denounced the attack (that came shortly after Venezuela broke off diplomatic relations with Israel over Operation Cast Iron in Gaza).

It is also fair to note that both Hezbollah and Iran's Pasdaran (Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution; IRGC) have a presence in Venezuela, and could put to use a list of the names and addresses of all the members of the synagogue, were it to be in their hands.

Were lessons learned?

As ground incursions are now underway in the Israel-Hamas fight (Operation Cast Lead), this might be as good a time as any for a comparison of how things go vs. how things went in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War in Lebanon.

Fighting in a place like Gaza is a different sort of battle, more of an urban campaign than the long-sightline fighting on the ground between the villages of South Lebanon, but none the less if Israel has not mastered the problems that appeared at that time, going into Gaza will be tough sledding.

Cautionary note to casual readers: The Strategic Survey of the 2006 campaign is a lengthy and detailed read.

The Man is Well Understood

A strong contender for quote of the day comes from Lebanon's Samir Geagea regarding the recent scheming by political-turncoat Michel Aoun and the Syrians:

In answering a question about status of Christians after the visit to Syria by Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, Geagea said:

"In light of past experiences of the late Kamal Jumblat, Suleiman Franjeih and Rafik Hariri, I'm not worried about the Christians, but I am worried about Aoun."

Might be wanting to add one J. Carter to the "be worried about" list, after M. Aoun's name. He is wandering around the neighborhood doing his self-important dance again.