Some thoughts...

Some thoughts...

and an outburst

...about losing four Americans including Chris Stevens (U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens; Libya) in the Benghazi Consulate Attack, and the current protest / assault against American interests sweeping across various countries-in-turmoil.

Yes. I did wait for a couple of days to get as many different reports in as I could before commenting.


First the outburst:

DAMN IT! Avoidable; it seems as of information coming out today, predictable; and absolutely unforgivable that an Ambassador was in a low-security Consulate in a risk-area at ten o'clock at night with only his traveling (and likely doing more than one job) Diplomatic Security close-team at the location.

Now the thoughts:

There should currently be a search for at least two replacement Ambassadors going on in Foggy Bottom. The public conduct of the US EMB CAIRO has been shameful and I don't care if the Ambassador was out and he left Public Affairs in the hands of underlings. Command Responsibility and all that.

While we're at it, this sort of multi-level screw up should fall on the Administration, especially the SecState. Given the crew currently running the regime in D.C., that's not going to happen voluntarily, but it should.

There can't be, for many reasons, any public recognition of some of the people who kept the 37 Americans that survived the Benghazi Consulate Attacks (multiple wave complex assault; it was not just a riot, folks), it is probably ok in the near future to hang some public "thank-you" on the small detachment ...reportedly U.S. Marines, reportedly only eight men... that were rushed in from the Embassy in Tripoli and were essential in holding things together until a proper rescue / evacuation could be done. Same goes for the loyal-to-the-Libyan-government troops that did help... yes, there were some.

The apology from the Libyan government and their promise to bring the attackers to justice is one that should be accepted. It also should be waved in the face of any local official that interferes with the effort to bag the attackers... oh and while one is at it, do find out why the local Libyan "guards" helped the attackers continue their assault... and bag them all too.

Egypt, specifically "President" Mursi, on the other hand... need to pretty quick be doing the old Chinese Kowtow crawl to the steps of the White House for their role in actively promoting the fraud that led to the Cairo Riot and Perimeter Breach... or a reply somewhat similar to that made to the Boxer Rebellion is entirely in order.

Karzai in Afghanistan, jumping on the "Outrageous Outrage" bandwagon, needs to remember his place in the order of things... or else.

In fact, the entire "Outrageous Outrage" as a political mechanism by the leadership of an chronically insecure social theocracy needs a little rough treatment by the civilized world right now. Yes, I know it is "your custom" to be so outraged (presuming one is a hardened Islamist; no such claim applies against Sufi or other Muslims that are also victimized by the fanatics)... might I remind one and all of the British Colonial-era reply as to the Hindu practice of Sati (suttee), paraphrased as: "You may burn her, as is your custom, but then we will hang you for murder, as is our custom."

The timing of all these events ~ Tunisia; Libya; Egypt; Yemen; the provocations in Afghanistan and other places ~ is not coincidental. A concerted effort was made to get the "insult to the Prophet" translated into Arabic and publicized juuuuuust in time for the eleventh day of September, and then it was pushed out in the various local media anywhere someone could be found to take offense.

There is a real possibility that the original "movie" that is the supposed excuse for all the "Outrageous Outrage" justification mentioned above is not legit. Several serious questions about the main person behind making the film are being raised... like a history of criminal fraud and false identities... and the claims of Jewish or Coptic interests being behind the film production are looking pretty fake too (at least as of today). In the old school, we used to call these sort of inside-the-opponent-country propaganda jobs "Active Measures"... and I'd say this case is similar enough to bear a whole lot of investigation.

Lastly...

It is helmets and shovels time for any American, (or European, or Japanese) diplomatic presence anywhere within reach of the fanatics. Shutter the Consulates and Offices and get everyone back inside the Embassy. Dig in deep, fellows, and aim true when they come over the wall. Because Friday is the day of prayer... and the frothing fanatics will be doing everything they can in their sermons to stir the masses into doing something very very stupid.

***

I am reminded (thank you, Glenn Reynolds!) that the paraphrase above re: Sati is more correctly rendered as The Napier Response:

"Be it so. This burning of widows is your custom; prepare the funeral pile. But my nation has also a custom. When men burn women alive we hang them, and confiscate all their property. My carpenters shall therefore erect gibbets on which to hang all concerned when the widow is consumed. Let us all act according to national customs."

  Welcome Legal Insurrection readers! Thank you, Professor; It's great to be the Post of the Day.

Sunday Morning Push

And then... and then I was busy. The wrong kind of busy. Not sure it is going to be better tomorrow, either. Stay tuned.

What got missed last week:

. Martin got the handshake. Elizabeth II was in Northern Ireland for part of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations. That's got to be an Only-Nixon-could-go-to-China moment for the Provos... Hope his own partisans don't hold it against him.

.. John Roberts engaged in one of the great judicial manuevers in the history of the SCOTUS. He was right about one thing, at least: It is not the court's job to save the electorate from bad laws passed by their representatives.

... Syria, Yemen, and Mali are all still hot zones in the Arab Spring (a year later and looking nothing like it did) and the GWOT. No coincidence, that.

.... Egypt elected Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood (yeah, he had a different party name; same difference) as President. SCAF (the Army government) tried to set the table by dissolving Parliament and taking over the new Constitution-writing, but even if that man is just a figurehead... ho boy... he's going to be trouble.

..... and lots more.

OK, your turn. This is an Open topic thread.

The usual rules all apply; most importantly: Play Nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

Blown

While there was no hope of keeping al-Qaeda from knowing exactly who doubled them...

...there was a modest hope of keeping some doubt in their (collective) mind for a while if the man they trusted to carry out their latest bomb plot had simply disappeared. Announcing, even a couple of weeks later, that Western Intelligence Services had the bomb in their possession pretty much scotched that...

...but just to be sure, certain political interests left no doubt in the matter.

The upshot:

Robert Grenier, former head of the CIA counter-terrorism centre, said: "As for British Intelligence, I suppose, but do not know, that they must be very unhappy. They are often exasperated, quite reasonably, with their American friends, who are far more leak-prone than they.

"In their place, I would think two and three times before sharing with the Americans, and then only do it if I had to. The problem with that dynamic is that you don't know what you don't know, and what opportunities you might be missing when you decide not to share. The Americans are doing a very good job of undermining trust, and the problem starts at the top."

No kidding. We've seen this before. Same Story, Different Day.

Can't *anyone* keep a secret anymore?

***

Richard Fernandez at Belmont Club on this same topic. Also, note carefully comment #12 ('wretchard' is Fernandez' handle). I'm pleased to say, I agree.

Old and New

...media, that is.

As we do mostly World Affairs here, both of these mentioned are related to that.

First, an example of the good a major network can do by sending (or allowing to go on their own) a well-known journalist (or reporter, or presenter) out to cover an out-of-way and frankly difficult story:

Greta Van Sustren in the Nuba Mountains. Lots of related posts up and down her 'blog.

h/t to CompHyp friend Adam Housley (who, like GVS, is at FOXNews)

and...

Then, an absolutely wonderful telling of the good done by New Media assets... individuals or acting in concert... to help a cause succeed. 'Fighting Keyboardists' if you will, but not in model of the old (joking about) 'Chairborne Infantry'. Again, these are people who either got out there or got connected with those out there and provided invaluable information support:

People Power 2.0, How civilians helped win the Libyan information war.

Over the years we've seen some amazing individual efforts by 'bloggers working and communicating with efforts far from home to try and do some good. Jane Novak's awesome efforts about Yemen over the years come to mind (although she's been off-line this last month; hope she is well). The cooperation we got here at CompHyp from other folks during the Honduras autogolpe was another example.

With a bit of luck, we'll be doing more for the good, soon.

Some Thoughts on Three Insurrections

I've but a moment to write here but, as I've been piecing together the fragments of news about the continuing insurrections spreading across North Africa and the Middle East, I've been struck by how little except anti-government motivation the ongoing uprisings share.

Yemen: This is really just the latest continuation of the South Yemen (Aden) revolt-in-all-but-name against the Saleh regime that has been going on for years. The motivations there are those of a post-colonial South born of both socialist and liberal desires against a classic Arab Nationalist regime... which can of course be quite socialist (cf. Egypt in the past) but has no tolerance for Socialists of the former-Soviet-inspired type, at least not in their own population. There is also an ongoing Islamist insurgency across the North and South that has in equal measure cut deals with the movement-anti-government types and with the Saleh regime. So there really isn't the "ordinary people against the autocratic regime" situation there was in Egypt, or Tunisia before that. The current circumstances are just an opportunity.

Libya: I have scoffed before as to the possiblity that a genuine popular uprising could stand a chance against the al-Qaddafi (al-Gaddafi) regime. That may actually have been premature of me, although the Libyan State Security forces have happily killed eighty-some-odd protesters so far in Benghazi and other parts of the east so far. But there is some real determination in the demonstrations to the point that they are on the verge of making eastern Libya a region in full revolt. There is so little news reporting possible, though, that it is rather unclear as to *who* is doing the demonstrations; Islamists? a Shopkeepers revolt? the entire population irrespective of politics? No good way to know, at least for now. The other issue is that the protests have not spread to the capital city, Tripoli. While it is almost always better for a mass popular uprising to start in the outlying areas, it can't make the essential jump from being a local insurrection to being one that brings down the regime unless the movement has enough strength to at least threaten the seat of power. If that comes, then you may politely discard any respect for my previous dismissal of possible success and cheer for what would be one heck of a revolution. We'll sort out exactly who the revolutionaries are after they win, ne?

Bahrain: This one is the hard one. There really is a revolt in progress, and the regime really is making the protesters pay in blood for every day in the streets, but... there is a lot more to what is happening than merely the loyalists gunning down the demonstrators (about 5 dead, all in, as of yesterday; lots of wounded, though). The matter is vastly more difficult for the following reasons: because Bahrain was actually the regional leader in the advancement of civil rights under a monarchy from 1999 up to 2008; because the territory of Bahrain is still claimed by Iran as part of their sovereignty (cf. Saddam Hussein's claim vs. Kuwait as a model); and because the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia considers the monarchy on Bahrain and indeed the land itself to be one of its vested interests (the island is connected to Arabia by a causeway, for one reason; as a buffer against Iranian pretensions of 'owning the Gulf' as another). I'd like to say that the demonstrations are at least well-intentioned, that they are genuine, popular and of a liberalizing intent. I can't. I know all too well how much it serves Iranian interests to pour fuel on the discontent held by the (roughly) 70% of the Bahraini population that share Shi'a Islam and near-brotherly ethnic ties with the coastal regions of Iran. If the Pasdaran (IRGC) isn't shoveling in all it has to stir things up on Bahrain, then they've really lost a step. This is a golden opportunity for them to make the monarchy and the Saudis look very, very bad... and they might end up controlling the place at least in part if things go completely out of control.

***

There are, of course, several other movements and insurrections happening across the region. I'm not discounting any of them; I've just little to add today about those other areas. You shouldn't overlook them, though. Jordan, Algeria, there are more, and reports do occasionally penetrate the all-too-inattentive mass media from time to time.

Freedom for Iran: Back into the streets

This last week has seen continuing protests in Yemen and Egypt (even after Mubarak was shown the door by the Army), and new outbreaks in Algeria and a few other places as well... there were even some hopes for a rising in Libya, but not much chance of that, really...

...but the big show, the one that matters because it just *might* work, is in Iran.

Today, the people tried again. Not the biggest protests, by far, but the people are back in the streets.

A live stream from Tehran Bureau (WGBH of PBS) is available here. The first hours looked to be less than promising, but...

Iran Standard Time (IRST), GMT+3:30

4:40 p.m. Al Arabiya is also reporting that Mousavi and Rahnavard have joined the protesters.

Now things get interesting, again.

The list of cities where protests are being held is impressively long, by the way. (scroll down to the first post on the live thread to see it) What that may mean is that the one thing missing from the last major push by the 'Green Movement', an effective spread of the protests outside Tehran to create a nation-wide sense of opposition, may be happening.

Here's hoping so.

Egypt: Second Wednesday go Thursday

It's been ugly.

Likely you've seen the reports of the pro-Mubarak protesters finally figuring out how to get at the anti-Mubarak protesters in the square... and the day-long rioting... amazingly, even after a re-count overnight, it seems only a handful actually died although there are reports from 600 to over 2,000 injured enough to need care.

I've talked about 'orchestration' in previous reports here, and usually I was implying something about the motivation or methods of the Oppos; Wednesday's mayhem in Cairo was the other kind of 'orchestration'. Some one on the Loyalist side figured out that (a) the Army isn't stopping anyone, really, and (b) both the Army and some more moderate voices in the Oppos have said it is time for the demonstrations to wind down, so some number of Oppos supporters had packed it in. That left, I'll wager they thought, rather fewer people that didn't deserve a walloping standing around the Square. Time to go crack heads, by that line of thinking. So who gave the go-ahead and who arranged the details of massing the counter-protest? Not the NDP (the political party of the regime) itself, but probably some of the Ward Bosses and their Leg-breakers who have made a pretty good trade over the years delivering elections for the NDP.

The good news, if there really is any after all that, is that even the new Prime Minister has apologized to the people and

...pledged to investigate the violence, calling it a "fatal error".

Indeed. The Army is now almost certain to side with the Oppos and fire on any Loyalist attempts at violence.


***

Also, just a reminder: There are several superb news feeds out of the region in English, mostly Israeli. Here's Haaretz Breaking News feed, which has been very good so far through this all.

***

Yesterday's News, but related: We spoke of Yemen being caught up in some of the echoes of all this, reigniting the near-perpetual anti-government protests (mostly in the South). Well, seems something came of that: President Saleh won't run for reelection in 2013, at least, so he says. A year is forever in politics in Yemen.

Embassies in Yemen closed Sunday

The U.S. and U.K. Embassies in Yemen are closed 'today' (Sunday) in response to threats:

The White House counterterrorism chief John Brennan said the American Embassy, which was attacked twice in 2008, was shut Sunday because of an "active" Al Qaeda threat. A statement on the embassy's Web site announcing the closure cited "ongoing threats" from the terror group and did not say how long it would remain closed.

In London, Britain's Foreign Office said its embassy was closed for security reasons. It said officials would decide later whether to reopen it on Monday.

source - The AP via FOXNews.

Lots of talk about how USCENTCOM is pushing in another ~US$70 million in counterterror cooperation funds to Yemen. That might be a good investment, if one knows where the money is going. Then there is Gordon Brown's latest foray into trying to spend money to solve problems (other than in actual useful MoD budgets), which the always reliable Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation sees as missing the point.

Far more important may well be the ongoing operations in eastern Yemen, but as long as the Government of Yemen can be bought and sold, there is simply no telling whether the cooperation seen over the last few months is anything but a transitory event.

IF that can be kept in mind, however, the adage about "making hay while the sun shines" seems to apply. Given the amount of al Qaeda out there to mow, let's get to it.

***

UPDATE:

Here's more on the U.S. military involvement in Yemen from CBS Evening News (USA). Sadly, it appears some members of the administration see this as a good time to score some political points...

U.S. officials had kept fairly quiet about the extent of American involvement in the recent Yemeni strikes. But with so many Americans asking what their government is doing to keep them safe after the Christmas Day bombing attempt, many more officials seem eager to describe how they're striking back.

...which, while no surprise, is an unwelcome motivation for otherwise commendable actions.

Here also is the item from the Wall Street Journal on General Petraeus's visit to Yemen on Saturday... and the various political posturings going on in London and Washington... but if that is what is needed to get some freedom of action against GWOT targets in Yemen, and to get the UNSC to finally consider the linkage between the Somalia situation and that in Yemen, then by all means get to it, fellows. Time's a-wasting.

Strikes in Yemen vs. AQAP

The Yemeni internal war has taken yet another turn for the strange. Last time it was the Saudi Arabian military intervention... this time, it was a combination of American cruise missile strikes and Yemeni military action. First reports looked, well, about like the average strike against al-Qaeda assets: a mixed bag of good kills, missed opportunities and some number of unintended dead locals.

The thing is, there is a lot more to this than meets the first examination.

Long War Journal sees it like this. Bill Roggio is most always a quality source, and he may well be this time too, however...

Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation (the source for all things about Yemeni politics and infighting) has been running a vast amount of from-Yemen material, with a very suspicious eye cast on the Government of Yemen's actions and reporting. She has several threads on the topic; here is her latest, as of today. Not a pretty picture.

The official reports are starting to come out, from the U.S.A. and from sources in the region, and to sum them up here is the AFP report from earlier today.

In the finest tradition of the name of this 'blog, I've already formed an analysis matrix of reported results vs. possible explanations. Some things are pointing to the possibility of more foreign airpower than just cruise missiles being involved, and an off-target strike by said airpower... but nothing rules out Yemeni airpower or ground fire being used in an indiscriminate manner... and the ever-present "co-mingling with supporting civilians" still is the Occam's Razor answer as to why so many civilians were killed.

But I just can't buy into the simple answer this time.

Yemen insurgency ~ a three way fight?

The civil situation in Yemen has not been stable for years, but this just about takes the cake:

The National Army is fighting both a low grade rebellion in the South and a real insurrection in the North.

The Northern conflict (the al-Houthi tribal rebellion) has signs of being partly fueled by Iranian activities, and there is a large al-Qaeda presence around that region that seems to be anti-Houthi, but is often anti-Government as well.

The Houthi rebellion has now spilled over into Saudi Arabia, drawing a heavy Saudi response on land and a naval blockade of Red Sea routes of supply to the rebellion. The Saudis are (unofficially) painting their intervention as thwarting Iranian influence.

The National Army, led by a government that can't seem to decide if they are old-school Nasser-inspired Arab Nationalists or new-model Islamists, are being offered help...

...by the American military...

...and...

...by al-Qaeda's Arabian Peninsula forces.

I'd call this a three-way fight, but with all the players now deciding to jump in, it could be a five-way fight. That is, *if* everyone weighing in is really on different sides and no one is being played for the fool.

Any bets the Americans are at least one of the ones in motley?

((sigh))

Oct 12th memorials

Two GWOT memorials came on the 12th, and both are worthy of your attention:

9 years ago, it was the U.S.S. Cole bombing. *Here* is last year's thread on that, with the roll call and links to photographs.

7 years ago, it was the Bali bombings in the Kuta tourist district. 202 dead, 240 injured in a triple bomb attack. They have been avenged, but the danger of J.I. (Jemaah Islamiyah) is still out there. The recent demise of Noordin Top is just the latest stage of the battle in Indonesia.

More Hostage-taking in Yemen

This time it appears to be for a different reason, but none the less 15 Red Crescent aid workers are reported kidnapped. The Government of Yemen rolled out this claim:

Followers of rebel leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi took Red Crescent doctors, nurses, officials and administrators from a refugee camp on Thursday, said Hassan al-Manna, governor of Saada province.

First off, the Government and the al-Houthi rebels have been locked in a death-struggle for years. The rebel's main aim is to restore the rights and system of a tribal-based loose form of theocracy that was the norm in northern Yemen until the 1960's. The government however is the product of Arab Nationalism in the fashion of Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Then comes word that just Thursday the rebels received and rejected an offered ceasefire.

Friday's kidnappings came the day after Yemen issued the rebels with the terms of a ceasefire to end a government offensive against them in the north of the mainly Sunni Muslim Arab country.

The rebels rejected Thursday's truce offer and denied holding any kidnapped civilians.

...

The government ceasefire conditions included a rebel withdrawal, the removal of their checkpoints and the clarification of the fate of kidnapped foreigners.

They also required rebels to return captured military and civilian equipment, hand over those behind the June kidnapping of nine foreigners and refrain from intervening in local authority affairs.

There is more here than meets the eye, so far. The terms of the ceasefire ask the rebels to give up their gains, for nothing, and require an act ("hand over those...") that may well not be possible (as the kidnappers in *that* case are more likely al-Qaeda-linked insurgents, not part of the al-Houthi rebellion).

***

I'd normally have some more information, either from regional sources or from the superb Jane Novak, but Ms. Novak has been away from her efforts for about a week (on holiday?) and so this will take a bit more careful watching on our part here at CompHyp until more facts become available.

As a reminder, Red Crescent is the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) element of the Movement that also includes the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

Tragic Turn to Yemen Kidnapping

The kidnapping of nine foreign aid workers in northern Yemen last Friday seems to have come to a tragic turn. Seven of their bodies have been found including one of the children, according to an official.

The Yemeni government blamed a local Shia rebel group, led by Abdulmalik al-Houthi, for the kidnapping.

The group has fought a sporadic insurgency in the Zaidi Shia heartland between the capital, Sanaa, and the border with Saudi Arabia.

But it denied any involvement in a statement.

A local tribal leader in the area, speaking to the Associated Press news agency anonymously, blamed al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda is known to have operated in the area, and analysts say it may be regrouping in Yemen after coming under pressure in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

ADDENDA: Jane Novak (*the* blog source for all things Yemeni) has a report that the two unaccounted for children were found alive.

***
UPDATE: Sources on this are very confused right now. The AP still has it as all nine are dead; Reuters and the Yemen Post have it as three dead (two German women and the South Korean woman).

***

hat tip to Mr. Bill for passing me the BBC report.

Yemen coming apart at the seams

As if the accelerating violence in Somalia isn't enough trouble, now it seems clear that Yemen is in grave danger of societal breakdown:

Yemen's stability and security, and its future as a unitary state, are in jeopardy following recent violent demonstrations in the south, experts say.

In the past few days, thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in the governorates of Lahj, al-Dhalei, Hadhramaut and Abyan, chanting anti-government slogans and calling for secession and the withdrawal of "the northern occupation".

Scores were killed in clashes between protestors and security forces, and a number of soldiers were killed when armed groups attacked security checkpoints.

The violent demonstrations were the worst in the south since late 2006.

Source: IRIN

That article also cites the always-excellent Jane Novak on the situation. As a reminder, *here is a link* to Ms. Novak's "Armies of Liberation" weblog. This is the best English-language site available on matters in Yemen.

***

Oh, and just so one doesn't go thinking that the only problem facing Yemen is separatism... al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula has their part in all these troubles, too.

South Korean investigators targeted in Yemen

The AP has this report as well, but to once again direct your attention to the best English-language source on things Yemeni, here is Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation on the attempt yesterday by a suicidal attacker to bomb the convoy of South Korean investigators as they drove in from the airport. The bomber missed, killing only himself.

Her report is detailed; her explanation of the possible actors in the crime is better. For bonus points, she even notes the role of South Korean investment in Yemen's Liquefied Natural Gas export project.

This attack follows the killing of South Korean tourists last weekend.

Bombing targets tourists in Yemen

This came in yesterday (local time) via the superb Jane Novak at her Armies of Liberation 'blog, but now the AP and AFP are running versions of the story.

The gist: Four South Korean tourists and their Yemeni guide were killed, some larger number of other tourists and locals were wounded, in a bomb explosion. The device was planted in a popular observation point for viewing the UNESCO World Heritage Site at Shibam and was apparently a command-detonated device. That means the terrorists targeted that group of tourists intentionally.

The South Korean government had put a travel warning out on citizens visiting Yemen, but it was not an enforceable prohibition.

Yemen recruits al-Qaeda inmates

The report came out that the Government of Yemen was releasing a large number of the al-Qaeda detainees incarcerated on the grounds that ((paraphrase --> ))"they had signed a pledge not to engage in violence".

Well, there seems to be a bit more to the mass releases...

The Saleh regime seems to have cut a deal recruiting said fighters into the cause of fighting the two movements against the government.

Quoting the always excellent Jane Novak (bold added for emphasis):

President Saleh deployed Fahdli and other Afghan Arabs against southern Socialists in 1994’s civil war. Some bin Laden loyalists were rewarded with high positions in the administration and military after the 1994 civil war. More recently, General al Ahmar incorporated Sunni extremists into military ranks during the 2004-2008 Saada War against Shiite “Houthi” rebels. Militants legitimize both the 1994 and Saada deployments by referencing the “apostate” nature of the enemy. This task is made easier by the official media’s description of both Socialists and Shiites as satanic.

Let's see if I have this right...

...this is the regime to which the current American administration wants to release more GTMO detainees too?

***
Previously here at CompHyp on Yemen: The Weekly N&C for January 26th, 2009.

The Weekly N&C for January 26th, 2009

God, Nation, Revolution and trouble

The motto of the Republic of Yemen is "Allah, al-Watan, at-Thawra, al-Wehda", which when rendered into English means: God (Islamic), Nation, Revolution and Unity. Given the history of the region and the actions of outsiders, it is fair to say that while the first three ideals may be subscribed to, the “Unity” part is not and has never been anything but a mirage. In fact, other than the relatively recent unification of the currently recognized territory, the last time the entire area was under a single government was during the Ottoman Empire, and as one of the most remote extremities of that Empire was really never fully integrated. Before that, neither the Egyptian-centered Caliphate of the 11th Century nor the original Arab-Islamic Caliphs of the 6th Century could shape a single territorial holding from the region. Before that, the Roman Empire attempted to subdue the region, and failed. If one would accept a likely apocryphal argument, perhaps the only ruler to have ruled the entire area as part of a kingdom prior to modern-day was the Queen of Sheeba. Perhaps had the saad Ma’rib been kept in better repair, things would have worked out better.

For the collapse of the wondrous dam of antiquity in or about 570 A.D. (*all dates from here are A.D. / C.E.) destroyed the agrarian society of the region, led to massive population relocation to elsewhere in Arabia, first emigration and then a return immigration. By 893 the region of Sa’da (or Sa’dah; in the northern part of modern Yemen) had become a Caliphate of the Zaidi sect of Shi’a Islam, and the Zaidi Imam ran the theocracy there until 1962. Zaidi adherents remain the largest single sect in Yemen, with just over 40% of the population.

Much of the population of the Western and Central Highlands are Islamic Arabs as well, but more commonly Sunni belief is found there, influenced for a thousand years by the great centers of faith to the north in what is modern-day Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The center of this region, Sana’a (San’a), is the present-day capital of Yemen. So that these places can be put in better reference, here is a map of Yemen today.

Roughly contemporaneously, the coastal holding of various tribes on both sides of the Bab al-Mandab (the peninsula at the mouth of the Red Sea) were prosperous trading centers, but unlike the highlands in the center-north, the surrounding land was and is utterly rainless and disease-plagued. As was common in other areas of great Arabia (Oman and Dubai of note), this reliance upon the sea and trade was both a blessing and a curse. Yemeni merchants traded as far away as what is now Indonesia, gained great wealth and status, and yet were almost completely cut off from the nearby highlands or land-routes to anywhere. From the sea came fish and wealth, but from the sea also came… the British. In 1839, the British Empire occupied the port area of Aden (‘Adan), and placed it within their Imperial holdings. With the rise of Suez cargoes to and from Europe, this became a key point in the chain to East Africa and India, and was jealously guarded. All the things that Empire brought with it became commonplace there, including education in the European ways. Islamic Arabs, mostly Sunni but some of other sects; Christian Colonials; a substantial Jewish community (present since antiquity); the cosmopolitan ways of life in a trading center blended elements of all that together.

The beginning of the “new” Yemen, however, came from the inspiration of Gamel Abdel Nasser, the great Egyptian Arab-Nationalist whose part in the coup that brought down the Egyptian Kingdom was his ticket to the second Presidency of Egypt and world renown as the foremost leader in the Pan-Arab Nationalist movement of the 1950’s and 60’s. This ardent believer in a secular neo-fascist authoritarian system to unify the Arab lands (self-named Nasserism then; similar localized movements are more commonly called Ba’athist now) had considered any foe of the British to be his friend and at times had attempted to gain support from both Fascists (WW II Italy) and Communists (Stalinist Soviet Union). While his personal style better matched that of Mussolini, it was the arms and economic support of the Soviets that secured his power and influence. All this support was then secondhand gladly availed to any Arab Nationalist movement, and in Yemen this led to the 1962 revolution in the north. North Yemen had been autonomous since the Ottoman defeat in WW I, but never really organized as a modern state. Now the Red, White, and Black flag was carried to victory there, bringing down the Zaidi Imam and establishing the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) as sovereign over all the territory outside British control. Borrowing from the fierce anti-colonialism of the Egyptian inspiration, a state of hostilities then commenced against British Aden.

Like many of the “small wars” of that time, the British were perfectly capable of winning any military encounter they wished to, but given the loss of Empire and finally the closure of the Suez route, by 1967 the British decided to give up the game. The former Aden Protectorate was recognized as the People’s Republic of South Yemen, but less than three years later a radical Marxist wing of the National Front government gained control and declared the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), and threw in whole-cloth with the Soviet Union, the Communist Chinese, Cuban communism-exporters and the radical Palestinian groups that shared the same ideology. By the mid 1970’s, PDRY was a full client of the Soviet “Empire”. Unification with the YAR was a stated goal, and one pursued at first with little hostility by both parties, but by 1979 conflicts had stopped that brotherly intention. By 1988, fratricidal infighting in the PDRY had brought the country low and when abandoned in the wake of the end of the Soviet Union, the situation turned. Soon the YAR was offering unification, on their terms. The 1988 “understanding” between the governments and 1990 “unification” on paper was shortly thereafter replaced by the 1994 Civil War in which the armed forces of the YAR occupied all of the PDRY and declared de-facto unification under a government based in Sana’a. The Nationalists now had their unified Yemen, but…

But in the meantime, the rest of the Islamic world had changed. The driving force that had been Arab Nationalism had become discredited in the wars and tyranny of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The vibrant force in radicalism had become Islamist thought and deed in the War against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and it had spread to the homelands. When the Gulf War brought disorder (and a foreign presence) to the lands of Arabia, the wide-spread Yemeni community recoiled back to their native soil. Over three-quarters of a million Yemeni ethnics returned from Saudi Arabia alone, and they were mostly of the mind that the Saudi King had sold his soul to the unbelievers. Others, more radicalized, had been active in the Islamist armed movement that became the current plague that is the latest form of international terrorism. Usama bin Laden (Osama; strictly speaking: Usāmah bin Muḥammad bin `Awaḍ bin Lādin), has garnered support in many regions of Yemen even to this day. His group, al-Qaeda, maintains a separate command for the region, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and operates as commonly in Yemen as in Saudi Arabia, if not more so. The attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Aden harbor in 2000 was just one such AQAP operation. Their efforts persist to this day, and the response of the Government of Yemen has been a tangled skein of crushing crackdowns and trivial tolerations. The mastermind of the Cole bombing plot was pardoned by the Government of Yemen. The police in Yemen are notoriously corrupt(-able) and the jails and court system are simply sieves through which Islamist radicals pass through the holes. More recently, the American Embassy was attacked last year by AQAP and a significant number of “former” Islamist terrorists have returned to their war by resurfacing in Yemen. Threat of more such attacks surface almost daily.

Meanwhile, the Government of Yemen continues to face social disorder in the formerly independent south and armed insurrection in the Sa’dah Insurgency in the north, where the Harf Sufian tribe has taken up the cause of the Al-Houthi clan Shi'ite rebels and are opposed by the U'seimat tribes and Government forces in a replay of the Zaidi vs. the State fighting of the 1962 revolution.

The Government of Yemen is distracted, disinterested in adding to its troubles and frankly nearly incompetent at the task needed to interdict and combat AQAP operations. The Coast Guard (granted, only founded in 2002) can not even take meaningful action without help against the rampant piracy and human trafficking in the Gulf of Aden.

There are more than 100 Yemeni nationals still under detention at GTMO Camp Delta as unlawful enemy combatants in the GWOT. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has stated that 94 of them are to be turned over to Yemen for “rehabilitation”.

This would be madness.

This would be the very definition of willful self-injury to Western interests.

In fact, until the Government of Yemen proves that it is acting in a manner not complicit with terrorist facilitation, they should be considered to be what they are…

…another failed state being used by the agents of terror.

…at best, a borderline Somalia.

…at worst, the next Afghanistan.

***
End Notes:

Most notes are embedded as links in the text. The following are also of interest:

CIA Factbook entry on Yemen

Jane Novak, the premier web logger on all matters Yemeni

Thomas Joscelyn at The Long War Journal on the two “returnees” now in AQAP leadership roles

The video announcement by these two Tangos. Text Summary by MEMRI (view by subscription only)

One additional note: The Jewish community of Yemen mentioned above was rescued, and is in the most part no longer present.

The following are Wiki-p entries for general information only. Please source all citations.

General Information on Yemen

General Information on the Sa’dah Insurgency

General and Historical Information on Zaidi Shi’ah

Historical Information on the saad Ma’rib, the Great Dam of Marib from antiquity
Also shows the modern dam serving the same purpose in modern Yemen